China versus India, A Great Asian Race.

Discussion in 'Subcontinent & Central Asia' started by HariPrasad-1, Dec 19, 2018.

  1. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    China versus India, A Great Asian Race.

    Written by: Vipul Dave Date : December 19, 2018
    It is China versus India, who will surge ahead by 2050 is a hot discussion topic between academia, intelligentsia and debaters across the world. Currently China is second largest economy of the world after US and India is sixth largest in Nominal Term. In purchase power parity, China is on top and India is next to US who is second largest economy of the world. Almost all research and rating agencies agree that in next 3 decades, either China or India shall be on top followed by other. Both the countries have pulled record numbers of people out of poverty line in last one and half decades and now both the countries are dealing with post poverty issues such as providing medical facilities, Housing etc. Now in light of this facts, it is very important to analyze the future of Chinese and Indian growth and their potential as economic and military giants.

    Brief historic Back ground:

    India and china had been number one and number two economy for eighteen centuries out of last two millennium. However last two centuries turned out to be worst for both the countries. Both the countries who used to produce minimum thirty to sixty percentage of world’s GDP became very poor for various reasons whose discussion here is out of context. After almost 2 centuries of economic down fall, both the countries shown a turnaround in later half of 20th century.

    The china was led by communist party totalitarian regime with power rested in few hands. On other hand India choose democracy on her independence and started preparing for economic development of the country which was left in civil war after full economic exploitation by Britishers .

    Early days of Economic Development.

    Under Maot-tse Tung’s leadership, in early sixties, foundation of Chinese economic development was laid down. Since, it was a totalitarian, regime, Chinese economic development model and policies were brutal and oppressive. The economic model of china was founded on many wrong principles. Even Mao gave a unique theory of four pest campaign in which he held insects and birds responsible for eating up human beings’ food and ask people to kill them. This led to a huge ecological disaster leading to death of 20 million people. However, irrespective of ways and implementation, this was aimed at economic well-being of China as a nation. Many mistakes were made but that was a learning curve for china.

    On the other hand, in leadership of Nehru, India sketched its economic development plan by the way of 5 year plan and defined an economic development model. Initial challenge was to bring country out of hunger poverty as country was not able to produce enough food grain for its massive population. Country was dependent on aid of food grain from the country like US. Who used to give India its substandard wheat on hard terms. It was aimed to make country self-sufficient in food grain and other basic stuffs to achieve 5% economic growth rate. However till many such 5 year plans, targeted growth rate could not be achieved.

    Both the countries kept on experimenting different models till eighties in hope of finding targeted growth rate and other economic objectives till they got it right in Eighties.

    Finding right target of economic growth:

    After too much experimenting, China got is right in early eighties when Chinese growth rate started soaring at 9% plus growth rate. The driver of growth rate was a very brutal iron hand administration of ruling Communist party who made people work very hard with very low wages and no other facility or and concern for human right. This made Chinese manufacturing very cheap. Very pragmatic export policy coupled with very low cost manufacturing made china the factory of world in next 2 decades. China kept growing at an average 9% compound growth rate for almost 3 decades which made china second largest economy in next 3 decades with a lots of prosperity. As china’s economic strength increased, it started converting it into High end goods and into military muscles. Chinese ruling party enjoyed a total power with no challenge from within gave it a free hand to develop world class infrastructure at a minimal cost as government take away any land as and when required. China build a huge infrastructure as well out of its growing economy.

    Indian Economic planning for decades remained influenced by Russian communist model resulting in nothing substantial or noteworthy on economic front. On the other hand, India got it right after its economy went into chaos after V P Singh rule. Chandra shekhar followed him as PM and stabilize economy. Narsimha rao, followed Chandra shekhar and bring real change. He made Man Mohan sing finance minister who implemented the economic growth plan drawn by Dr Subramanian Swamy in Chandra shekhar government. India strike high growth in excess of 6% but it was not as consistent as china. It was a flip flop of high growth rate of 6 to 7% for some year getting down to 3 to 4% in next few years till Vajpayee came and stabilize it in 2003. India grew at a rate higher than 7% since than which is remarkable though not as high as china’s. Currently India is growing at a rate faster than china but not a great deal. In these years of economic development, India grew as a giant in many area and remarkable of them are Pharmaceuticals. Like china is a factory of world, India is known as the Pharmacy of the world. India took almost couple of decades more to strike the consistent high growth rate compared to china which allowed china to surpass India by a great deal. However, in wake of current economic development, it is believed that India will narrow the gap in time to come and may catch up china by 2050. However, the main issue with India is its changing government and political instability and role of immature political parties. If India gets stable government for couple of more decades, India can grow rapidly like china did in 3 decades starting from early eighties.

    Basic Difference in Growth patterns:

    As china enjoys one party rule, India is a democracy with parliamentarian democracy. Chinese government at present is at a great advantage enjoys a huge money power and total administrative control to carry out whatever development they want. China, in pursuance of high growth has made many infrastructure which is not demand driven. China has built many ghost cities where nobody lives. All this shows that china has eliminated all hurdles and constrains which may hinder development.

    On the other hand, India faces many problems. Prime minister of India must have a majority support all the times makes him vulnerable to numbers. When Chinese government do not face any hurdle in development of land acquisition, Indian government has to face many hurdles in land acquisition even for Infrastructure projects. Provocation of opposition parties makes the things worse.

    Different states have different laws and there is a lots of liberty to farmers to go to court and gat a stay to stop the work. Inspite of so many limitations, Indian government has done a commendable job by boosting infrastructure at a rapid pace. Highways are buit at the rate of over 30 KM per day. Freight railway corridor is also built very fast. Present government is successful in making many stalled projects operational. Indian government is not as rich as Chinese government so it is building many project in public private partnership. Current government has mobilize many huge projects such as Bharat Mala, Sagar mala etc which shall transform India’s infrastructure totally.

    Challenges, opportunities and Future:

    China on one hand enjoys a massive money power and total control and stability of government, she has some vulnerabilities as well. Because of rise in economic development and people having money in their accounts, china is no more a cheapest producer of consumer goods any more. Their production is shifting to many other countries and India is on the top. China is moving to high end and high goods but china has to face many technologically advanced countries like US, Russia, Germany and Europe. When on one hand ability of produce stuff on large scale is china’s advantage, their inability to innovate and research is a major negative point of china. China is going to face a serious manpower problem because of One child policy followed for so many years. Chinese demography has changed. Chinese population has grown old. China shall face a serious issue of manpower shortage in years to come which will seriously impact the productivity of China.

    Other issue which china going to face is the scarcity of skilled manpower like many other countries. One study has reveal that by 2030, all the countries in the world face the scarcity of skilled manpower they required. India shall be the only exception with 200 million surplus skilled manpower.

    India is progressing very well but India has so many vulnerabilities. The main issue with India is its political vulnerability and corrupt politicians. Many political parties are run by families. It has become a business. They are unable to deliver on the progress front so they provoke people and creates cast divide. What will be the future of India shall be decided by how India is able to control these elements in time to come.

    On the other end, India is on the verge of becoming a great miracle of mankind has ever seen. Huge population has come out of poverty. India’s education Institutions have turned out to be the best anywhere, IITans and other Indian students are sitting on the top of many multinational corporations. India’s medical tourism is also flourishing. Top medical treatment is available at fraction of cost in western countries and China. Bollywood is becoming more and more popular and spreads soft power of India across the world. Yoga has gained a huge popularity and interest across the world and it is enlightening the people. Old traditional knowledge has come to the rescue of modern man facing modern problems. India is fast becoming the knowledge hub of the world. India shall be the only country having surplus skilled manpower in the world by the next decade of the world. There are so many schools teaches students with different philosophies with the unique blend of modern and traditional education. India is developing in a unique way. India has an unique demography

    Rise of china uniform. It is like a tall building build on standard RCC frame meeting established standards. While the rise of India is like a beautiful temples carved with beautiful sculptures with a lots of artistic imaginations. , hich you cannot put in established criterions of evaluation. India with so much of diversity is a world in itself with multi ethnic, multi-linguistic, multi-cultural society defeating all definition of the nation build on the sameness. India is bound in a unique thread of Indianness.


    China


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    India
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    Conclusion: India vs China is basically the test of two ideologies. China followed a centralized Totalitarian model believing that such a vast country cannot be kept be gather and made progressive with democracy and different people pulling in different direction. On other hand India put her faith in democracy and choose a highly liberal model and an all-inclusive constitution. China took a path of brutality and India kept its faith of democracy and liberalism China adopted reverse engineering and India invested in Research. China focused on production and India focused on education and making human being able on the principles of equality and empowering of lower most class to uplift it at par with others.

    China has progressed a lot but experts believe that this is the peak of China’s development. China cannot grow more with current development model. On the other hand, India is left a decade and half behind but is the has laid a very strong foundation of democracy. India’s strength is its highly aspiring young people. World cannot think of growing or doing research without high educated, smart Indians. This is evident from Silicon-valley to NASA, many multinational corporations, education institutes and media.

    In my conclusion, world will not see a much different china in next few decades to come but world will see a totally different India fully flourished spreading enlightment and peace, contributing to world order and happiness, providing leadership in many areas across the world to make it a better place. India shall be a role model for many countries to follow and Indian culture shall once again influence whole humanity.

    This article cannot be reproduced without the acknowledgement to writer.
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2018
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  3. prohumanity

    prohumanity Senior Member Senior Member

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    What China has achieved economically in last 3 decades can not be undone just because some other power wishes....Just like 1.3 billion Indians aspirations are unstoppable...1.3 billion Chinese dreams are also unstoppable...Both giant nations are going to keep growing well into next 50 years and more and more trade will become norm between the two. Those who still are imagining a war between India and China are living in fools' world..it's most improbable...because the World desire to survive is alive and well.
    Those powers who hate non european people to prosper will also perish if a major war erupts between India and China...and therefore these hate mongering powers will stop short of instigating a major war.
    Rise of China and India is good for entire human family as these ancient civilizations have old wisdom and maturity in their DNA which is desperately needed in today's spoiled narcissistic teenager type leaders of current superpowers. Wish both China and India well and see the world a much better place in coming decades.
     
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  4. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    The problem is not what USA wants; the problem is what Chinese want. And Chinese want more Indian territory; entire Himalayan belt to be precise including Nepal and Bhutan. This gives them complete control of all water resources to their only competition here; us.

    US want to see China destroyed because they see them as competition; something they will see in us after 10-15 years of sustained growth. But China hasn't exactly been respectful of others' territories in the region. Placing false maps from obscure historical "records" and then demanding territories has been a common Chinese feature.

    China also holds 19,800 sq Km of our territory in eastern Ladakh.

    If they give us back what has been ours and stop claiming our states, then we have no problems with them.

    But knowing communists well, they won't.

    They are an expansionist ideology which came into existence as a by-product of colonial thought process.
     
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  5. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    If (any of) you have seen both countries India and China extensively, u won't think that's an India v. China competition.

    Seriously they're not in the same league at all. The crux of animosities is neither ideological (communist vs. democracy), nor territorial spats that've been overhyped, with (deliberate) self-victimizing.

    I'm Chinese but trying to observe as objectively as possible. India is rising, yes, but not as a counterweight to China as in wishful thinking of some posters (indians or non-indians) .

    Seeing is believing.
     
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  6. Raweg

    Raweg Regular Member

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    agreed......China is 15-20 years ahead of India in every field.......in future I don't know, we might be counter weight or may be not.
     
  7. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    The content of thread is stupid.
    India was supposed to get dehyphenated from the conventionally cited adversary Pakistan, does not mean to get hyphenated with another i.e. China.

    For animosities, China has issues with first world for atrocities and Indians are supposed to hate Britons for that, not affinity with west in the name of democracy despite the fact that our blocks & economic PoVs were opposite while establishing republics. China is a key trade partner of India and India will emerge as same for PRC later if not now.

    India has a far more balanced relationship with West, Russia & PRC. And even if in far future, India could emerge as a pole like US, Russia or PRC as current poles decline, India will at best occupy or dissolve its weaker neighbours and gonna try to get a permanent seat with recognized nuclear power status, in its most possible aggressive mode.

    We have normal relations with everyone, haven't done and won't do this vs drama.
     
  8. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    I reject the only economic criterion to evaluate development. Economic criterion is undoubtedly very important till the basic need of people is not taken care of. Once that is done, it becomes very important what sort of atmosphere you allow your citizens to flourish. Communist china under dictator Xi certainly can not allow such atmosphere to its citizen where the right development of citizen can happen. India with too much of freedom and diversity can certainly produce global citizen who can give guidance and leadership to whole world. One can see this happening across the world starting from education institutions, Multinational companies to research institution to world peace and transformation of Human being. I just read one study where it indicates that India shall be next to china in PPP by 2030 having some 70pc of china's economy in PPP.

    Economic development should be accompanied by virtues and proper social systems. US is a number one economy but wrong value system of excessive stress on individual freedom has spoiled the society and Nation has become weak. China with their stereotyping has spoiled their society which is very good at doing representative work but unfit to innovate produce something beautiful or new. Inspite of highly ranked educational institutions (In terms of facilities), average students are produced who can not excel in competition in west where they are facing Indian and other students.
     
  9. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    All I'm saying is, stop making it China vs India.
     

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