UNDER STRAIN
Harsh V. Pant
There are so many political distractions in India that hardly anyone notices when events of momentous significance unfold in China. China is rocked by its biggest political crisis in decades. The Chinese Communist Party has never been known for being a sprightly entity, but the internal workings of the party are now making a lot of splash. Just a few weeks back, it all seemed to be going well for the CCP. When the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, assumed the mantle of his predecessor, Jiang Zemin, in 2002, it was the first peaceful transition of power in China's history. And that was what the CCP was hoping to repeat this year. But recent events have shaken the foundations of the CCP's political organization.
The charismatic and controversial former leader, Bo Xilai, has been ousted from the party, and his high-profile wife, Gu Kailai, has been sent to prison in connection with the murder of a British national, Neil Heywood. Bo was hoping to be a candidate for one of the nine seats on the next politburo standing committee, the most powerful body in China that virtually runs the country. And now he has been removed from the central committee of about 200 full members that meets annually to legislate on the trajectory of the nation and its politburo. Bo and his wife, the powerful and wealthy couple, who just a few weeks ago seemed untouchable, became a threat to the very top brass of the CCP.
There has been no dearth of drama in the Bo saga that continues to unfold. It was triggered off when Bo's own police chief fled to the American consulate in Chengdu to seek asylum, claiming that he had evidence of Heywood's murder. Bo was a gregarious, populist leader very unlike other leaders in China. In the process of reaching out to the ordinary Chinese, he made some powerful enemies in the CCP.
At stake
Bo's overt populism was aimed at other leaders, underscoring their inability to meet the public's basic requirements. There are those in the party who defend Bo as the reformer who was tackling many of the problems, especially corruption, plaguing the party through his crackdown on organized crime. According to his supporters, he was having success in areas where the central party leadership was refusing even to tread. In the last two decades, this is the first major turmoil within the CCP happening in full public view and exposing divisions within the body politic of China. The internal unity of the CCP has come under strain, with growing rifts among leaders. Although the party leadership thinks it is imperative that they stay together in the run-up to the leadership succession, Bo's ouster has revealed frictions between the Left and the more moderate Right-wing.
The CCP tightly controls decisions about internal changes but, occasionally, the veil slips and the internal dynamics are revealed to the outside world. The growing differences within the CCP leadership carry risks of destabilizing the government as the party tries to undergo a political transition amid concerns about a slowing economy and growing socio-economic inequalities.
Today, China is very different from what it was three decades back, thanks to economic growth and the concomitant social changes. The growing demand for political reforms and a belief among the ordinary Chinese about entrenched corruption at the top echelons of the CCP is becoming harder to contain. In order to respond to these new demands, debate about the future trajectory of the country is intensifying within the party.
China's future is at stake in this debate, as is the future of the world. China's foreign policy will not remain immune to these far-reaching changes. India needs to be alive to the rapid changes taking place in its vicinity so as to be able to respond effectively when the need arises.
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