China poised to pass US as world's leading economic power

CrYsIs

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GDP matters when it comes to buying military hardware and throwing your weight around on the international stage.
I don't deny that.

Look currently there are two measures of GDP.One is GDP by PPP and another one is GDP by Dollar value.The GDP by PPP measure is used to measure the standards of living in a country where as GDP by Dollar is used to measure the financial strength of a country.


GDP by PPP doesn't mean anything,the only thing that matters is GDP PPP per capita.

India's GDP PPP -- > 5 TRILLION $ ,Per capita - 4000 $

India's GDP Dollar nominal value --> 1.8 trillion $, Per capita - 1500 $
In the above only the red highlighted portion matters
 

Julian

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I don't deny that.

Look currently there are two measures of GDP.One is GDP by PPP and another one is GDP by Dollar value.The GDP by PPP measure is used to measure the standards of living in a country where as GDP by Dollar is used to measure the financial strength of a country.


GDP by PPP doesn't mean anything,the only thing that matters is GDP PPP per capita.



In the above only the red highlighted portion matters
In diplomacy per capita does not matter whether GDP PPP per capita or GDP nominal per capita. What matters is overall size as can be seen from example of Indonesia and India. The latter had higher GDP PC but does not matter much.
 

CrYsIs

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Right. India 's PCI is lower than Thailand, yet only mentally retarded would think that Thailand is in any way comparable to India in terms of army or diplomatic weight.

Of course due to India's population India has a higher GDP.

Lets take this example --


There are two rooms - ROOM A & ROOM B

In Room A there are 100 people,each having a rupee.Henceforth the combined wealth of Room A is Rs 100

In Room B there are only 2 people,each having Rs 25 in their pockets.Therefore the combined wealth of Room B is Rs 50

In this scenario India is like room A and Thailand is like Room B.Although Room A has a higher total wealth but individually much poorer.Room B has a smaller combined wealth but individually much richer than people of Room A


In reality India's situation is much worser.India's total population is 1200 million but has the same GDP(1.8 trillion$) as Canada which has only 30 million people.
 

CCP

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I wrote this article

China Today: A creation of western greed and shortsightedness and lessons for India
China has rapidly grown both economically and militarily in the last 20 years. Decades of double-digit growth has propelled China to being the second largest economy in the world and is on track to become the largest overtaking the US.

What helped China attain this high economic growth, advancement in science and technology, creation of a military industrial complex which has reached such advances that China built its own fifth generation fighter aircraft? The answer lies in Chinese smartness and Western greed.

Before 1979 when china started embracing capitalism with Chinese communism traits, it was a backward third world country just like india which under Mao saw the great leap forward which actually resulted in 45 million dead due to hunger. Early seventies saw the US under the Nixon regime develop relations with China with an eye on the Soviet and use it as a counter weight. The Chinese realized the benefit of such a move and quickly embraced the US leading to the US diplomatic relations with China and a shift from its recognition of Taiwan as the real China to Beijing. Though it was a communist country, China saw a pretty peaceful cold war as the US thought it had a friend in China. The US probably didn't benefit immensely from its relations with China as China continued its support to North Vietnam and North Korea.

The US directly invested in wide range of manufacturing sector in China, created joint ventures and also contract ventures which led to substantial transfer of industrial know how to the Chinese. American multinational corporation quickly moved manufacturing out of the US to China to cut its costs and maximize profits and today it is fully depended on Chinese manufacturing for even its basic needs. The Chinese were good enough to learn the latest manufacturing process to quickly establish vast industrial base with large capacities to become the center of world manufacturing. The Chinese learned to make advanced machines and machining technologies which have helped her in the military sector. China similarly benefited from the Europeans who increased their dependence on China for manufactured goods.

The objective was simple, to cut costs and shift lower end jobs to China and maximize their profits. China was all too happy to accept and absorb all that came its way. This has actually turned into a major problem now for the west as they run huge trade deficits with China and also let China become its major source of debt with a severe erosion in their own manufacturing capacities though they remain premier nations for research and development and high-end manufacturing.

Although trade has prospered between the west and China, arms and related technology was embargoed on China which is where the Russians stepped in. Benefiting from denial by the west, Russia supplied China with advanced weaponry and technical know how which bought it billions of dollars. But this has proved to be a disastrous and shortsighted policy. China has now learned a lot from Russians arms and its technology and violated intellectual property to develop its own military industrial complex. China now makes fighter jets that are rip offs of Russian ones which they have reversed engineered. Today Chinese arms purchases from Russia has declined rapidly. The manufacturing capability for this was derived from years of US and European shift in manufacturing industrial products to China. China benefited from the learning about the latest manufacturing, machines and machining technology from the West and arms purchases from Russia to develop its own large-scale military industrial complex which it is using to rapidly modernize it's over 3 million strong Peoples Liberation Army. China is making advanced missiles, fighter jets, ships, submarines which has led it to develop capabilities to rival the west and Russia which have long been its benefactors. Chinese are not known to be benevolent and pursue their ambitions with impunity. China does not want to share its space with anyone and in fact create more space for itself. Even if it means confronting the very nations which helped it attain the position it is in today.

China's rise has been aided largely by the west whose greed and shortsightedness is coming back to haunt it. This is where there is a lesson for India as it pursues its relations with the US. Given the right policies, India can do what the Chinese did with the US during the cold war by pretending to be with the US against the Soviets. While the US and China slug it out, India can position itself owing to its geography, its large population, is large labor force, its large middle class to become a hub for investment and manufacturing and absorb advanced technologies to create a better future for itself and secure its interests. The US is already willing to help India rise. It depends on India as to how it grasps the opportunity.

China Today: A creation of western greed and shortsightedness and lessons for India | Sarvatra Vijay
Basically,you think China did nothing before the 20 years, and Western countries(and Soviet Union) were stupid.
 

Julian

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Of course due to India's population India has a higher GDP.

Lets take this example --


There are two rooms - ROOM A & ROOM B

In Room A there are 100 people,each having a rupee.Henceforth the combined wealth of Room A is Rs 100

In Room B there are only 2 people,each having Rs 25 in their pockets.Therefore the combined wealth of Room B is Rs 50

In this scenario India is like room A and Thailand is like Room B.Although Room A has a higher total wealth but individually much poorer.Room B has a smaller combined wealth but individually much richer than people of Room A


In reality India's situation is much worser.India's total population is 1200 million but has the same GDP(1.8 trillion$) as Canada which has only 30 million people.
I think there is some problem somewhere. I do not deny or disagree that per capita measure is what determines real condition, but @LalTopi talked about diplomatic weight and military potential and in that Russia with far less per capita GDP is way ahead than Singapore.

I am fully aware of what you are saying, only that it does not matter in international arena, who cares for richer Singapore as compared to China or even Indonesia.
 
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CrYsIs

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In diplomacy per capita does not matter whether GDP PPP per capita or GDP nominal per capita. What matters is overall size as can be seen from example of Indonesia and India. The latter had higher GDP PC but does not matter much.

Really ?

Yes overall Size does matter but it's Nominal size that matters.

China was the 3rd largest PPP economy in 1995 but did not get any International attention until it's Nominal economy started expanding exponentially.

India is largely geo politically irrelevant due to it's relatively small economy.When India becomes the size of Japan,International community would start noticing us and we would become topic of discussion like China.
 

CrYsIs

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I think there is some problem somewhere. I do not deny or disagree that per capita measure is what determines real condition, but @LalTopi talked about diplomatic weight and military potential and in that Russia with far less per capita GDP is way ahead than Singapore.

I am fully aware of what you are saying, only that it does not matter in international arena, who cares for richer Singapore as compared to China or even Indonesia.

Russia is a special case.It is basically remnant of a superpower. Although it's economically not that big but since it inherited all those soviet machinery and tech it's still a very potent power.

But standard of living of an average Russian is no match to that of a Singaporean
 
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Julian

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Really ?

Yes overall Size does matter but it's Nominal size that matters.

China was the 3rd largest PPP economy in 1995 but did not get any International attention until it's Nominal economy started expanding exponentially.

India is largely geo politically irrelevant due to it's relatively small economy.When India becomes the size of Japan,International community would start noticing us and we would become topic of discussion like China.
Where did I say otherwise?
Indian economy is just 1.8 trillion dollars as compared to 6 trillion Japanese economy so it is obvious that a man with 18 lakh rupees would be given less notice than one having 60 lakhs.
However, my original point is that it is nominal size that matters in international diplomatic arena, a China with nominal per capita GDP of 7000 dollars is way ahead than Malaysia with double per capita GDP than China.
 

Julian

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Russia is a special case.It is basically remnant of a superpower. Although it's economically not that big but since it inherited all those soviet machinery and tech it's still a very potent power.

But standard of living of an average Russian is no match to that of a Singaporean
Standard of living of a Chinese is no match to that of a South Korean, who matters more?
 

CCP

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Standard of living of a Chinese is no match to that of a South Korean, who matters more?
FYI, China has 1.4 billion people. The number is 1.5 times more than 36 "developed " countries all together.

If our average living stand equal to today's living stand of US or even SK , we need another planet earth.

Since we don't have another planet earth, so we have to take some wealth from other countries.

After a war(economical of physical) some countries' GDP will go down significantly. But the average living stand of China will rise.

Actually, the war has started long ago. Western countries are trying their best to protect their living stand.

BTW, the richest 20% of Chinese (close to 300 millions) which the population of US are enjoying over $20,000+/year.
Also,the richest 10% of Chinese (close to 140 millions) which the size of Japan are enjoying $40,000+/year.

My home town,ShenZhen,a city with 10 million population , reached $22,000 per capita last year which is higher than Taiwan(23 million population) and close to South Korean(50 million population).
 
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no smoking

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Before 1979 when china started embracing capitalism with Chinese communism traits, it was a backward third world country .....
Well, in 1979, this backward third world country's general industry outputs were far beyond India. It was even more amazing when you consider this country had hardly no industry in 1949 while India was regarded as eighth industrial country.

The US directly invested in wide range of manufacturing sector in China, created joint ventures and also contract ventures which led to substantial transfer of industrial know how to the Chinese...... Even if it means confronting the very nations which helped it attain the position it is in today.
US and west also did the same thing to other countries including India, why these countries failed to reach the same level?



China's rise has been aided largely by the west whose greed and shortsightedness is coming back to haunt it. This is where there is a lesson for India as it pursues its relations with the US. Given the right policies, India can do what the Chinese did with the US during the cold war by pretending to be with the US against the Soviets. While the US and China slug it out, India can position itself owing to its geography, its large population, is large labor force, its large middle class to become a hub for investment and manufacturing and absorb advanced technologies to create a better future for itself and secure its interests. The US is already willing to help India rise. It depends on India as to how it grasps the opportunity.
Well,
firstly, this is 2014 not 1973, USA is not in desperation of looking for a savor;
secondly, it is not a cold war, it is an economical competition, USA doesn't need an ally but a market;
thirdly, it was only taiwan that stood between China and USA in 1973, today it is the dominance of Indian ocean.

So, go back and do some homeworks.
 

CrYsIs

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Where did I say otherwise?
Indian economy is just 1.8 trillion dollars as compared to 6 trillion Japanese economy so it is obvious that a man with 18 lakh rupees would be given less notice than one having 60 lakhs.
However, my original point is that it is nominal size that matters in international diplomatic arena, a China with nominal per capita GDP of 7000 dollars is way ahead than Malaysia with double per capita GDP than China.

Nomial GDP per capita does not give a perfect picture of standards of living in a country.Thats why GDP per capita PPP is taken into consideration.

So in breif:-

A country's economy is measured in GDP Nominal and per capita is measured in GDP PPP


GDP PPP is an economic calcuation based on local currency where as GDP nominal is calculated in international currency ($).

Since GDP PPP is in local currency you cannot compare two countries based on it.To compare you need to compare it in international currency,thats where GDP nominal comes into picture.
 

Julian

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FYI, China has 1.4 billion people. The number is 1.5 times more than 36 "developed " countries all together.

If our average living stand equal to today's living stand of US or even SK , we need another planet earth.

Since we don't have another planet earth, so we have to take some wealth from other countries.

After a war(economical of physical) some countries' GDP will go down significantly. But the average living stand of China will rise.

Actually, the war has started long ago. Western countries are trying their best to protect their living stand.

BTW, the richest 20% of Chinese (close to 300 millions) which the population of US are enjoying over $20,000+/year.
Also,the richest 10% of Chinese (close to 140 millions) which the size of Japan are enjoying $40,000+/year.

My home town,ShenZhen,a city with 10 million population , reached $22,000 per capita last year which is higher than Taiwan(23 million population) and close to South Korean(50 million population).
And there are 10s of millions of Chinese who are poorer than many million Sri Lankans.The point I made is that general living standard of Chinese is lower than a South Korean, yet by its size China domnates entire Asia while Korea is happy being concubine of USA.
 

CrYsIs

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So far as living standards are concerned but not for diplomatic weight.

GDP is a measure of economic activity taking place in a country and not a measure of revenue generation.

India has a gdp of 1.8 trillion $ but a reserve of only 300 billion $ and an annual budget of only 270 billion $ ,16th largest exporter,23rd on the list of FDI receiver.

Yes India is big but not big enough to have a diplomatic weight.


India has a very weak industrial strength unlike china and is largely dependent on other countries to fulfill it's needs.
 

Julian

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GDP is a measure of economic activity taking place in a country and not a measure of revenue generation.

India has a gdp of 1.8 trillion $ but a reserve of only 300 billion $ and an annual budget of only 270 billion $ ,16th largest exporter,23rd on the list of FDI receiver.

Yes India is big but not big enough to have a diplomatic weight.


India has a very weak industrial strength unlike china and is largely dependent on other countries to fulfill it's needs.
Right but does India less important than Indonesia which is far better in per capita terms?
 

Tianshan

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PPP, hahaha.

we don't recognize it. officially only nominal figures are used for gdp.

what motivation does the world bank have for changing its calculations i wonder. maybe to put more pressure on us.
 

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