Discussion in 'Gilgit Baltistan' started by Daredevil, Oct 14, 2009.
Lol...so they gonna cook Pork in there.
Daredevil you're not understanding the intent behind the move. It is, as tarun says, a direct attempt to provide: i) a deterrent and ii) a raison d'etre for military intervention in the event of Indo-Pak war. Pakistan is now a complete rentier state, necessitating the aid of three parties to fight its war: i) the militants, ii) the United States; and iii) China. If they are military engineers their presence constitutes a direct violation of international convention on disputed territories. Ideally this would be targeted by militants many months before a conflict, if imminent or in peace-time. A compound like this would be highly fortified and so, it will need a swarm of militants rather than individual assailants. In any case, it provides us a reason to augment our intelligence in occupied Pakistani-administered Jammu & Kashmir. The best way is a two-pronged process: i) of upping international pressure on China to get out of Kashmir; and ii) using co-ordinated militant attacks to inflict damage on their assets. Pork chewing, as hit&run said, would provide a good reason for those.
China is not going to be scared of our nuclear and missile capability at present.Its puny unless we prove bigger nukes by conducting more tests. I'm worried that if even a limited Indo-pak conflict like Kargil starts it might result in us confronting the Chinese.Retards across our western border will be more than happy to see that.
That's unlikely. In my opinion, China will only intervene if we attempt to cut off the Sino-Pak border by invading PoK. The Chinese presence in PoK shows us the strategic value of the territory.
We need to be ready for a two-front war, NOT because China is going to invade us, but because liberating Kashmir in the long run requires being ready for a possible PLA intervention in the same region.
I am not saying that China is going to invade us. With the presence of Chinese forces in POK, Pakistan may be emboldened to to launch some sort of misadventure or large scale shelling across the border. If our retaliation causes Chinese casualties or affects whatever they are building there, the chinese might retaliate against India.
That might be true if we crossed the border. But in Kargil we refrained from crossing the border, and we will refrain from doing so in the near future as well.
China cannot get a casus beli from India defending herself. Even in Kargil, China supported the Indian position.
More evidence of the peaceful rise, this will push India towards any anti chinese alliances. Silly of the Chinese to have made an enemy of India. They have a short window currently for this nonsense now which they will pay dearly for in the future Chinese demographics guarantees it.
Is China or India ageing better?
June 29th, 2010
Author: Amitendu Palit, ISAS, Singapore
Chinese and Indian demographies will be rather different three decades hence. What kind of economic outcomes are the differences expected to create?
With 1.4 billion and 1.2 billion people respectively, China and India currently account for 37 per cent of the world population. Thirty years later, they are expected to account for roughly the same share of world population. The overall numbers, however, hide some fundamental changes that will have occurred by then.
In another 20 years, India will have caught up with China in terms of population. The UN projections of population indicate that in 2030 the two countries are expected to have around 1.4-1.5 billion people each, with India marginally ahead of China. The period 2025-2030 will be a significant time in terms of Chinaâ€™s demography, with the rate of population growth reducing to zero during that period. By then, China is no longer expected to have net addition to its population. The number of births will match the number of deaths, with the latter gradually overtaking the former to push China into a negative rate of population growth after 2030. This will be the culmination of a remarkable demographic transition in China. It will mark the end of a period comprising almost seven decades during which China will have reduced its rate of growth in population from 2.6 per cent (mid-1960s) to less than zero.
India,on the other hand, will continue to add people to its population. At the time when China is expected to have negative population growth, Indiaâ€™s population is projected to be growing at around 0.6 per cent per year. Indeed, India is not projected to reach a zero rate of growth in population for more than two decades after China does. It will have around 1.6 billion people in 2040 compared with Chinaâ€™s 1.4 billion. The combined China-India population is expected to increase from its current level of 2.6 billion to 3.0 billion by 2040, with most of the increment coming from India.
These big picture demographic changes will be accompanied by more subtle demographic transformation. The most discussed and familiar of these is the change in the relative weighs of working age population (15-60 years) in total population. India will remain a younger country than China in 2040, with a median age of 35 years compared to 44 years in China. Chinaâ€™s population is expected to age faster over the next three decades, with the percentage of sixty-plus people in total population projected to increase from 12.3 per cent in 2010 to 27.5 per cent in 2040. The corresponding increase in India is expected to be from 7.5 per cent in 2010 to 15.6 per cent in 2040. The difference in ageing will influence the proportion of the working age population to total population in each country. At present, the proportions of working age people in total populations are 67.8 per cent cent and 61.7 per cent in China and India respectively. Right now China has, the â€˜demographic dividendâ€™ of having a larger working force cohort. Come 2040, the proportions are expected to reverse, to 62.4 per cent for China and 64.6 per cent for India.
One needs to be cautious in claiming that the change will give a decisive economic advantage to the Indian economy vis-Ã -vis China. In absolute terms, the proportions imply that in 2040 there will be around 1 billion working age people in India compared with 0.9 billion in China. Given the sizes of the two economies, the difference is marginal. However, given that India will continue to experience net additions to its population well after 2040, the working age population is expected to increase further. Hence, Indiaâ€™s expected higher returns from the demographic dividend vis-Ã -vis China are likely to grow over a three-decade-plus time horizon from now.
These evolving demographics bring with them a complication for India, usually overlooked in the euphoria over the demographic dividend. The density of Indiaâ€™s population (people per square kilometre) is projected to increase from 369 to 476 over the period 2010 to 2040. During the same period, Chinaâ€™s population density will rise from 141 to 152. India will have to handle the challenge of accommodating its population growing at a faster rate than Chinaâ€™s within a land area that is much smaller than Chinaâ€™s. The obvious implications of an adverse land-per head ratio are greater pressures on natural resources and public goods. Inadequate supply responses on these fronts can easily erode much of the demographic dividend.
Amitendu Palit is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) in the National University of Singapore.
PLA interest is not over North but N.E, They are simply Improving PA infrastructure and Material over POK and Surroundings & A sign that they are there..
Chinese posts are far beyond Indian Arty ranges, And mostly defensive..
Over NE they are speeding up their Material, Infrastructure & improving their doctrine for a Blitzkrieg style capture of Arunachal Pradesh..
In WAR time, If PA attacks China will surely put pressure over N.E, But wont directly involve itself over Northern Front..
India confirms Chinese military in PoK
NEW DELHI: Indian intelligence agencies now have credible evidence of their own that several hundred of the Chinese working in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir are People's Liberation Army engineers. They are in the process of verifying if these Chinese military engineers are engaged in some sort of military construction like bunkers.
The startling confirmation that hundreds of Chinese military engineers are in PoK has come against the stout official denial by China that its military was not present on the Pakistan side of Kashmir. In the past, US intelligence has told India about Chinese military presence in PoK.
The Chinese are involved in hydel projects, realignment of Karakoram highway etc in PoK. Presence of Chinese military engineers in civilian construction activities undertaken by China in foreign countries is "unusual", a source said. "They couldn't be there just for civilian work," he pointed out.
Sources said the inputs about Chinese military presence in PoK was part of an assessment presented by the Indian Army top brass to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, defence minister A K Antony and other senior officials a few weeks ago.
Army leadership is believed to have pointed out the significant gap in the military capabilities of India and China, especially along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between the two countries. The stark differences in the logistical capabilities such as roads and air links along the border between the two armies were pointed out to the leadership. But most importantly, Army told the political leadership that the Chinese were capable of deploying some three dozen divisions, against India's less than a dozen divisions, along the LAC in case of hostilities.
The Army leadership is believed to have pointed out the massive air force and ground force capabilities Chinese possess in the regions along the Indian border, while urging the government to step up its own efforts to pull up development of infrastructure.
Indian infrastructure development, almost fully stalled for three decades since the 1962 war, was revived only a few years ago. Even those projects â€” primarily building road links close the border and reviving abandoned airfields â€” have run into various issues.
On the military front, while the Army is raising two divisions, IAF has deployed Sukhoi-30s closer to the Chinese border. An Army demand for raising a dedicated mountain strike corps for the China border is yet to be approved by the government.
Army leadership pointed out that the PLA was capable of swift mobilization of troops from other parts of the country, and can sustain half-a-million troops along the border for several weeks. All these capabilities, and India's own deficiencies, could lead to Chinese being more assertive, both on border and diplomatic issues, some believe.
One official said there is no "credible and sustained" evidence on ground to show that Chinese have become more aggressive, though there are hints of it. He pointed out that as the passes open up along the border and summer patrolling increase, "whatever change is there would be visible on the ground". Many in the establishment do not buy into an alarmist assessment, saying while China's actions are meant to send a clear signal to India about its economic might, it is not expected to itch for a military tiff with India.
This is misleading. Although China has much more land in total than India, most of it is wasteland. Only 10% of China's land is arable, compared to over 50% of India's land.
This means, in terms of population per sq km of arable land, India has a lower density than China.
As per wiki, China has 15% arable land to total land percentage and India has 50%. India's land area is approximately ~3 million sq km and China's land area is approximately ~9.5 million sq km. So total Arable land in India is ~1.5 mn sq km and China it is ~1.45mn sq km
India's population is 1.2 billion and China's population is 1.35 billion.
So yes India has a more favourable population per sq km of arable metric , however, this advantage is offset by
1. India' rapidly increasing population as compared to steadily declining Chinese population over the next few decades
2. China's higher farm output compared to India.
China's thinking viz a viz India is similar to Indian thinking viz a viz Cold Start.
China plans to have a very quick blitzkrieg type of operation in Ladakh, Uttarakhand, Northeast. Hold the land, quickly cease hostilities and press for negotiations. Their plan would be to keep the military operation strictly professional with minimal collateral and civilian damage so as to not alienate the local folks.
If China is able to mobilize its assets in PoK, and push for in PoK. We will be hampered by a 2-front operation.
India has to think out of the box to counter this; we are hampered by our declared policy of NFU and on top of that add our inherent weakeness in terms of infrastructure, political will, and nuclear options and we have a recipe for humiliation.
Instead of guesstimating, just get the real figures.
China = 120 million hectares
India = 184 million hectares
Number of people per hectare of farmland don't mean shit. Productivity of the land is what matters.
Also a little less than half of India's agriculture output is dependent on Monsoon. So, productivity takes a hit when the rains don't come in time in South India as compared to North India. The Chinese also use superior techniques backed by superior infrastructure.
But, For now not Ladakh and Uttarakhand..
Its not difficult for China to Mobilize over POK, Their Objective is to make PA 100% Ready over POK in terms of Infrastructure and material....
PLA mainly concentrated over NE and will be there for long time..
1. Chinese Infrastructure is poor over Ladhki terrain compare to Tibetan sector.. ( Airbases & Roads )
2. Main Concentration of PLA SF units are over NE sector..
Involvement of China over POK dose-not change the present situation that is we already have 2 fronts..
IA is already developed 2 front doctrine and its already implemented, The only Problem is lack of crucial hardware like HMG / Arty / Light Armour etc..
In Army We know simple Orders in few words as possible, But outside it takes a Million words to do a Simple task..
I have heard from a friend in SSB that India has made the eastern sector a fortress. So inspite of all the development works from roads , rails and airbases in tibet it is quite difficult for PLA to have a successful aggression in that sector.
Hence PLA is probably adopting a policy of intrusion in PoK. How far is this true ???
Why cant India go to the UN to protest against foreign troops on a disputed territory ???
I'll try to reply this.
Having strong fortification is a good thing but considering it to provide immunity from an adversary (one like China) is a big mistake. We cannot yet consider our preparations complete. This race of having an upper hand will go on with ever improving striking capabilities vis a vis the ever improving defences. Also, remember who is on the defensive here. The one who is on defensive, always has to keep his eyes open and feet on fire.
PLA's adoption of this policy has many reasons than our blockage at NE.
Because the entire erstwhile province of Jammu and Kashmir is disputed. Calling it in courts would mean that our opponents can object to activities in IoK as well. Although a counter argument is that we do not have a third party involved on our side of the border.
The difference in numbers are staggering. With a 3rd less arable land, China gets over twice the agri output of India. Of course that comes with consequences for China. Depletion of arable land, water supplies drying up, desertification, pollution of water. India has much catching up to do, but China has peaked with a a steady decline to come.
PLA Objectives are mainly 2
1. Reinforce PA over POK via machines and Infrastructure ( a Possible second front a thread which cannot be ignored ), Direct Involvement is least expected as they will be in mercy of PAF air support which can be easily cutoff by IAF..
2. PLA objective is to secure entire Arunachal pradesh within 48 to 72 hour on paper on the other hand they expect it to go for at least a week, whereas IA made it a proper Kill zone for any thing from any dimension, Despite knowing such threads, PLA is still improving its tactics and trying to adapt such threads form us, they made some very unique units for such attacks, Almost all PLA mountain units are light mechanized Infantry supported by SF and Paratroopers, Light-Heavy Armour and Gunships are already based over southern China..
For further Infos: 'PLAâ€™s Latest Experiment With Mobility and Fire Power:'
Though the experiment was held during 2007..
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