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tarunraju

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The moment Dalai steps on Chinese-controlled territory, he will be executed. People with far lesser 'convictions' have. The "we're open for talks" stand is just a hogwash aimed at cleaning China's image vis-a-vis the Tibet issue.
 

neo29

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what do the chinese wana talk if not recognize the sovereignty of tibet which is the main issue .
 

Daredevil

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what do the chinese wana talk if not recognize the sovereignty of tibet which is the main issue .
Sovereignty is not the issue. HH Dalai Lama is only asking for great autonomy on the model of Hong Kong so that Tibetans can self-rule without Hanification of Tibet. But, CCP being a insecure organization thinks that this leads to secession of tibet from China and loss of leverage over India as there will be no more Indo-China border issues to use as a pressure point. This is what gets the goat of CCP and their stooges on internet.
 
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why sould Dalai Lama waste his time nothing is going to come out of these talks anyway?? If anything he needs to discuss how China celebrated the olympic games in Beijing by slaughtering thousands of Tibetans.(which made the Beijing olympics the biggest flop in olympic history)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVEyId14ndk
 

Daredevil

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Mapping the hurt feelings of the Chinese people

Posted by Joel Martinsen, December 11, 2008 12:14 PM


China's blogs and online forums have reacted in different ways to the official indignation over French President Nicolas Sarkozy's meeting with the Dаlаi Lаmа.

Boycotts, which played a large role in the anti-French sentiment during the Olympic torch relay earlier this year, were the subject of heated discussion (see Global Voices Online for more details).

But other netizens were inspired by the words of the deputy foreign minister; "The meeting grossly interfered in China's internal affairs, severely undermined China's core interests, gravely hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and damaged the political basis of China-France and China-EU relations."

How many times have the Chinese people's feelings been hurt, anyway? Blogger FangKC searched through the electronic archives of the People's Daily between 1946 and 2006 and discovered that 19 countries and organizations have been accused of hurting the feelings of the Chinese people:


Japan: 47 times, starting in 1985
USA: 23 times, starting in 1980, when Los Angeles flew the ROC flag
NATO: 10 times, mostly relating to the 1999 Belgrade embassy bombing
India: 7 times, starting in 1986 and mostly relating to border issues
France: 5 times, starting in 1989
Nobel Committee: 4 times
Germany: 3 times, starting with a meeting with the Dаlаi Lаmа in 1990
Vatican City: 3 times, starting in 2000
EU: 2 times, starting in 1996
Guatemala: 2 times, both in 1997
Indonesia: in 1959, when a newspaper inflamed anti-Chinese sentiment
Albania: in 1978, for criticism of Chairman Mao and the Chinese Communist Party
Vietnam: in 1979, for a high official's slander of China
UK: in 1994, over the Taiwan issue
The Netherlands: in 1980, over the government authorizing a company to provide submarines to Taiwan
Iceland: in 1997, for allowing Lien Chan to visit
Jordan: in 1998, for allowing Lien Chan to visit
Nicaragua: in 1995, for supporting Taiwan's bid to join the UN
South Africa: in 1996, for proposing a two-China policy

Feeling that FangKC had undercounted, blogger Arctosia at Bear's Blog created this map of countries that "have been clearly fingered by state media or representatives of the Chinese government of hurting the feelings of the Chinese people."
 

amoy

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Pumped With Cash – And Ready to Crash?

Pumped With Cash – And Ready to Crash? http://english.caing.com/2010-01-27/100111543_1.html
Domestic and foreign money is pouring into Chinese real estate, not productive assets, as inflation risks rise and a new crisis brews

China's foreign exchange reserves soared by US$ 453 billion in 2009, or 10 percent of 2008 GDP. Bank lending increased 32 percent to 9.6 trillion yuan. And yet nominal GDP rose only about 5 percent.

Clearly, the financial side drove China's GDP growth last year, reflecting a new reality of the post-financial crisis world. But all that money produced relatively little GDP growth because it worked its way into a single sector: property.

Two market beliefs animate this continuing movement. First is the belief that China's currency will only appreciate. The other is that China's land prices will drive money flows.

The currency argument is based on cross-border capital flows. Capital inflow -- not trade surplus, which fell by one-fourth from 2008 – drove China's foreign exchange reserves in 2009. One data point was a surge in reserves before U.S. President Barack Obama's China visit last November. Many hedge funds were positioned for yuan appreciation during the visit. When expectations were disappointed, the flow slowed. Slower growth for reserves in December supported this observation.

The second belief exerts a powerful effect on domestic capital flows. New property sales rose 75 percent year-on-year and topped 14 percent of real GDP in 2009 – a first for China or any major economy. Household savings were between 20 and 25 percent of GDP. It is easy to tell from property sales data where household savings are going.

On the business side, there has been an equally major shift in capital deployment. A proliferation of land barons – tycoons who broke all records at 2009 land auctions – showed where business investment was heading. Their eagerness for land hoarding was illustrated by an unusual yet widespread phenomenon: In any given area, land costs exceeded prices for existing developed property. This is why I suspect most bank lending last year was related to property.

Each belief depends on the key assumption that the Chinese government will let neither exchange rates nor land prices fall. The market psychology that the Chinese government is capping the downside for speculators has emboldened them to speculate in any asset class with a China angle.

Yet the assumption has not been tested because the U.S. Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy continues to drive money out of dollars and into China-related assets. When inflation forces the Fed to raise interest rates quickly, probably in 2012, this assumption will be tested. In the current speculative game around China, the force is the Fed's zero interest rate. When that changes, I suspect few of today's speculators will be around.

Inflation's Role

Inflation is playing into the game as well. The 23 percentage point difference between nominal GDP and growth in the money supply M2 last year has stored up a great deal of inflation for the future. The money is temporarily trapped in property and shows up as property inflation, but it is working into inflation through rising distribution costs.

Money supply cannot grow faster than GDP forever. A prolonged gap between the two usually suggests an asset bubble, i.e. excess money supply is piling up in an asset market. But sustained asset inflation inevitably leads to consumer price inflation, either through the wealth effect on consumption or a cost push on the production side.

It's interesting that made-in-China products are priced higher at Chinese stores than in many other countries. High property costs are probably the most important factor. The same phenomenon occurred in Japan during the 1980s when Japanese goods sold for much more at home than in the United States.

The money supply surge is also working into inflation through expectation. When workers consider wage offers, property prices are probably their most important consideration. Incipient wage inflation could partly be explained by the devaluation effect of property inflation on money.

As far as I can tell, China's consumer inflation rate is already quite high. India and Russia have stronger currencies than China's and are experiencing nearly double-digit inflation. However, China's official statistics still report low inflation. The discrepancy may be due to how inflation is measured.

The monetary surge occurred at a time when the economy is increasingly prone to inflation. Money printing eventually turns into inflation, although the transformation's speed depends on many factors. The more plentiful the production factors, the longer the lag between money growth and inflation.

Between the mid-1990s and around 2005, China's labor costs stagnated, even though labor productivity rose about 8 percent per annum. It was the biggest force keeping down domestic and global inflation. But recent years have seen a turning point for blue-collar labor: Wages have had to rise to attract workers. This change cut the lag between money creation and inflation.

Contributing to this change is a modern expansion of China's college system, which substantially cut the blue collar labor supply. The current college student population is equivalent to three years of labor supply. Moreover, graduates who join the workforce don't consider blue collar jobs. So the wage gap between blue and white collar jobs has sharply narrowed.

In addition, the labor overhang from the state-owned enterprise restructuring a decade ago is gone. Most of these workers have permanently dropped out of the workforce.

Blue collar wages are the second most important cost driver in manufacturing after raw materials, and in services after property. Raw material prices have an upward bias in the current environment, with low interest rates driving funds into most commodities as inflation hedges. Natural resources and production are competing for financing. I suspect prices for oil, copper and other resources will continue to rise in 2010.

China's monetary overhang in a more inflation prone environment augurs poorly for the inflation dynamic this year and beyond. The growth outlook, on the other hand, is dimmer. On the demand side, developed economies will continue to suffer high unemployment and property deflation. Despite a strong export showing in December, China's exports are unlikely to grow as they did in the previous five years. I expect China's exports will average single digit growth for the next five years, compared to 27 percent between 2003 and '08. Since the export sector roughly accounts for one-fifth to one-fourth of value-added GDP, the export deceleration could decrease overall demand growth by four percentage points or more.

On the supply side, the current redistribution of capital from manufacturing to property will substantially cut productivity growth rates. Property isn't a productive asset. It is always very difficult to estimate the productivity growth rate, especially total factor productivity (TFP) which measures how much more output is produced from the same amount of inputs. My rough estimate of China's TFP three years ago was 4 percent. As property doesn't lead to meaningful productivity growth, if half the productivity capital is reallocated to the property sector, it is likely to cut the productivity growth rate by half as well. I suspect China's total factor productivity will grow 2 percent rather than 4 percent in coming years.

These supply and demand changes necessitate tighter restraint on monetary growth. But that may not happen. Many analysts think slower economic growth requires more monetary stimulus. This is the wrong medicine; stimulus is not an easy way out, since its consequences are not immediately felt. But it does reap short-term benefits such as asset inflation, which is why vested interests support such policy moves. Thus, new stimulus measures stand a good chance of winning approval, even though this bad medicine will trigger sustained high inflation without stimulating growth.

China's interest rate is probably three percentage points below what it should be to prevent inflation. But I don't see any rate-raising policy action of such magnitude for the foreseeable future. When the People's Bank of China recently made its first significant tightening, the move was tiny. Its half-percent increase in the deposit reserve ratio cannot significantly impact the lending capacity of a banking system with a 67 percent loan-deposit ratio. The system is short of capital, not liquidity; increasing capital requirements would have been more effective.

What China also needs is to increase consumption's share in GDP to offset the export slowdown. That requires shrinking the size of investment, which is mostly government-led and equivalent to decreasing the government's power for raising and spending money. Without significant structural reforms, such as changing local government incentives, raising consumption levels while shrinking investment will be very difficult to achieve.

As far as I can tell, China could experience a few years of inflation rates that are higher than GDP growth rates. It may not qualify strictly as stagflation. India and Russia, for example, are experiencing inflation rates that are much higher than their GDP growth rates. Both economies are still functioning. But such a scenario is best avoided, since it constrains policy maneuvering. China would need more wiggle room for stimulus in the event of a new shock, such as another global financial crisis.

Indeed, 2012 is building up to be another crisis year. Governments and central banks did not handle the last crisis well. They did not reform a global financial system plagued by incentive misalignment and wild speculation. All the money governments and central banks released is turning into global inflation. And they resorted to bailing out speculators, laying the foundation for another crisis.
 

amoy

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Family in Europe is decomposing
Soon heteros will have to start to fight for their rights in the near future if things continue this direction>
In urban areas Chinese youth tend to marry at an old age, say of nearly thirty+ or even remain single. And many choose to be DINK (double income no kid). Nowadays most Chinese take a dont-ask-dont-tell attitude towards homo. However old fashions die hard such as beliefs that 'only heteros is normal' and 'it's a must to carry on the line of family with offsprings'.
 
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singa

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The moment Dalai steps on Chinese-controlled territory, he will be executed. People with far lesser 'convictions' have. The "we're open for talks" stand is just a hogwash aimed at cleaning China's image vis-a-vis the Tibet issue.
Don't speak this nosense talk while you have never live long time in China.
 

singa

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why sould Dalai Lama waste his time nothing is going to come out of these talks anyway?? If anything he needs to discuss how China celebrated the olympic games in Beijing by slaughtering thousands of Tibetans.(which made the Beijing olympics the biggest flop in olympic history)

I agree with you conclusion but not your evidence "slaughtering thousands of Tibetans in 2008". I watched a lot of videos of 2008.

Now the thing is that Dalai don't have almost any "card" to show. what did he have now? Now USA only give him US$2.5M per 4-years. It is just a pocket money for him. Too less money.
 
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The dalia lama is not a politician or a movie star he is a religious leader who wants best for his people, he is in no way in it for the money if that is what you claim he could probably get hundreds of millions in donations if he chose. Dalai lama may not have any cards but he was still able to get the attention of the world before the Beijing olympics .
 

amoy

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The dalia lama is not a politician or a movie star he is a religious leader who wants best for his people,
1) What HH is doing is far beyond religion
2) Reinstatement of Lama's theocratic rule seems an illusion given 'status quo' - Lands of Tibet of monerstaries or aristocrats were distributed to serfs. Some in power were even former serfs (like former Chairman Redi)
3) HH's age
 

tarunraju

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Don't speak this nosense talk while you have never live long time in China.
I don't have to "live long time in China", to come to that conclusion. Thinking that the Chinese will let him stay alive on Chinese-controlled territory, no matter if he concedes his entire movement through dialogue, is just that - nonsense. Tibetans hate Chinese dystopia, and hence seek passage into India.
 

amoy

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Chinese central gov't says views "sharply divided" at talks with Dalai Lama envoys
BEIJING, Feb. 2 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese central government and representatives of the Dalai Lama had "sharply divided" views in the latest talks "as usual," a senior government official said Tuesday.

Zhu Weiqun, executive vice minister of the United Front Work Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, told a press conference, "We have been accustomed to such a confrontation of viewpoints as views had been divided in previous talks."

But he said the talks "had some upside" as they let both sides know exactly their differences and how wide the differences were.

"It helps the Dalai Lama realize the position he has been in."

The central government wanted to "give the Dalai Lama a chance to correct his mistakes" by holding talks with his envoys, Zhu said.

However, he said, the talks were not without result, as the central government arranged trips for the envoys to visit central Hunan Province to better understand the country and the regional ethnic autonomy policy.

He said during the previous talks, Lodi Gyari had presented a "Memorandum from All Tibetans to Enjoy Genuine Autonomy," and obscure words were intentionally used in the memorandum in an attempt to explain "Greater Tibet" and "high degree of autonomy."

When the memorandum was rejected by the central government, Gyari was not pleased, saying he would not want new talks, Zhu said.

"But this time, Gyari says talks will continue in the future," he said.

Zhu said the Dalai Lama and his followers had several "favorite topics" since 2008. For example, the CPC would "retire;" the central government and the Chinese armed forces masterminded the March 14 Lhasa riot, but put the blame on the "Tibet government-in-exile;" southern Tibet and areas south of the McMahon Line belonged to India; and the Dalai Lama declared he was "a son of India."

"Can these act and words of the Dalai Lama improve relations with the central government?" Zhu said it was imperative that the Dalai Lama should "match word to deed."

Zhu said the improvement in relations with the Dalai Lama was China's internal affair so "outsiders have no right to voice any opinions."

With his frequent international activities to seek foreign support, the Dalai Lama "already plays a role of a troublemaker, which will make the Chinese people feel antipathy towards him and will create obstacles to contact and talks," Zhu said.

Zhu asked the Dalai Lama to restrain his words and deeds against the central government.

Since the previous talks in November 2008, the Dalai Lama's followers continued to openly collude with separatist forces to attack the central government and the CPC, he said.

"They tried hard to destroy the stability of society in China, slandering and damaging the image of China, disturbing the head of state visits to foreign countries and harming the safety of our nation's territory and sovereignty," he said. "The Dalai Lama even openly and repeatedly declared, 'No doubt, I am a son of India'."



China says Tibet on its own path "with or without Dalai Lama"

English.news.cn 2010-02-02 12:52:56 FeedbackPrintRSS

BEIJING, Feb. 2 (Xinhua) -- Tibet will keep to its own path with or without the Dalai Lama, a Chinese official said Tuesday when responding to questions on what will become of the region after the Dalai Lama's death.

"Chinese people, including Tibetans, will decide the future of Tibet," said Zhu Weiqun, executive vice minister of the United Front Work Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, at a press conference in Beijing.

Asked if the central government would find a solution to the Tibet issue more difficult after the Dalai Lama's death, Zhu replied, "It is not polite in China to talk about the possibility of a 75-year-old man passing away. We hope he can live a long life."

The central government hoped the Dalai Lama, 75, could settle the problems concerning his own prospects while still alive and would not pass away abroad, he said.

Officials with central authorities met with the Dalai Lama's private representatives, Lodi Gyari and Kelsang Gyaltsen, last week in China, more than a year after the Dalai Lama side declared an end to contacts and talks following a meeting in November 2008.

The Dalai Lama's private representatives were in China from Jan. 26 to 31, during which period Du Qinglin, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, met with them. Zhu, UFWD Vice Minister Sita and Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the Tibet regional People's Congress Nyima Cering held talks with them.

The two sides had "sharply divided" views in the latest talks "as usual," Zhu said.

The central government wanted the Dalai Lama to abandon his stand to "split the motherland, cease separatist activities, openly admit that Tibet and Taiwan are inalienable parts of China," and that the government of the People's Republic of China is the only legal government representing China, he said.

In a statement issued Monday, Du said the Dalai Lama should reflect on his own words and deeds and correct his political arguments.

Issues concerning China's territory and sovereignty were non-negotiable and no concessions would be made on those issues, Du said in the statement.

The so-called "Greater Tibet" and "high-level autonomy" violated China's Constitution and only if the Dalai Lama completely abandoned such claims, could there be a foundation for contacts and talks, he said.

Du said the Dalai Lama and his supporters should desist from activities against China and the activities of infiltration and provocation in Tibet.

However, the Dalai Lama's private representatives refused to "revise a single word" in the "Memorandum for All Tibetans to Enjoy Genuine Autonomy," which they presented at the previous talks, nor to make any concession, Zhu said.

Since the previous talks in November 2008, the Dalai Lama's followers continued to openly collude with separatist forces to attack the central government and the CPC, he said.

Some 10,000 followers of the Dalai Lama staged harassing and wrecking activities in front of more than 40 Chinese foreign missions last year.

With his frequent international activities to seek foreign support, the Dalai Lama "has already played the role of a troublemaker, which will make the Chinese people feel antipathy toward him and will create obstacles to contact and talks," he said.

When commenting on the possible meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and the Dalai Lama, Zhu warned of serious damage to the political foundations for Sino-U.S. relations.

At another press conference Tuesday, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ma Zhaoxu also expressed "strong" opposition against any meeting between foreign politicians and the Dalai Lama.

The Dalai Lama should realize that some foreign forces, which supported him, may not help him, but trap him, Zhu said.

"Since the armed rebellion in 1959, what did the Dalai Lama get except that he was pushed further and further away from the journey home?"

He suggested that his followers should ponder what they should do when the Dalai Lama departed this life.

Asked to comment on whether there would be an upsurge of violence and terrorist activities after the death of the Dalai Lama, Zhu said he believed most Tibetans living abroad loved peace and would like to contact their family and friends in Tibet and be engaged in Tibet's development.

It could not be ruled out that a few people would turn to violence, but history had showed that violence and terrorist activities would inevitably end in failure, he said.

The talks with the Dalai Lama's private representatives "had some upside" as they let both sides know exactly their differences and how wide the differences were, Zhu said.

The central government wanted to "give the Dalai Lama a chance to correct his mistakes" through such talks, he said.





The central government wanted the Dalai Lama to abandon his stand to split the country, cease separatist activities, openly admit that Tibet was an inalienable part of China and Taiwan was an inalienable part of China and the government of the People's Republic of China was the only legal government representing China, he said.
 

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Nine-year-old Chinese girl gives birth
A nine-year-old schoolgirl has become one of the world's youngest mothers after giving birth to a 6lb baby by caesarian section

The baby was delivered on January 27 at a hospital in Changchun, in the North Eastern Chinese province of Jilin, when the girl was eight-and-a-half months pregnant, according to a local newspaper.

The City Evening News reported that the girl and her child were both well, but that her parents have lodged a complaint to the police.

Under Chinese law, intercourse with a child under the age of 14 is statutory rape.

A nurse in the ward told the newspaper that the girl's family was from Songyuan, a nearby city of around three million people, and that she "looked very mature" but it was unclear how she had become pregnant.

The hospital declined to comment on the case.

China has launched a nationwide campaign to preserve the innocence of its children, banning any sexual content from the internet. Secondary school pupils are often suspended or expelled if they are suspected of having sexual relationships.

However, critics point out that there is a need for proper sexual education in order to combat the fast-rising number of teenage abortions. According to statistics from one hospital in Shanghai, almost a third of abortions are carried out on school pupils.

Last year, a clinic in the central city of Chongqing was criticised after advertising half-price abortions for anyone with a student card.

Advertisements for "Student Care Month" showed a schoolgirl wearing uniform, saluting and saying: "I am a student, I have special rights".

The youngest girl ever to have given birth is thought to be Lina Medina, of Peru, who gave birth at five-years-old in 1939.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...0/Nine-year-old-Chinese-girl-gives-birth.html
 

amoy

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U.S. Ground Troops 'Would Be Slow to Meet Korean Emergency'

U.S. Ground Troops 'Would Be Slow to Meet Korean Emergency' U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Wednesday said American ground forces may be unable to arrive in South Korea in time for an emergency in North Korea. Gates was speaking at the House Armed Services Committee when asked when U.S. ground forces could be fully ready for another battle in case of an emergency in North Korea following the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq and deployment of forces to Afghanistan.

Gates told the committee that under present circumstances, U.S. ground troops would not be able to arrive in South Korea on the timeline required by the Korea-U.S. contingency plan. "It's just that they wouldn't get there as quickly because of the commitments that we have in Iraq and Afghanistan," Gates said. "That's not to say they wouldn't get there." He added that the U.S. would instead be dependent on the Navy and Air Force before ground troops arrive.

The comments confirm the fears of some that if the U.S. is mired in long-term conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, rapid deployment elsewhere would suffer. Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, "I would only add that, as you look at the timeline that you just described -- end of '11, Army's out of... Iraq -- it's the beginning of reset, really, for the Army in terms of equipment and actually training," suggesting that major operational plans would have to be revamped following troop withdrawal from Iraq.

In 2007, Gen. Peter Pace, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee that the U.S. should be able to handle three major emergencies -- in China, Iran, and North Korea -- by using Naval, Air Force and reserve forces, but it would not be able to meet the desired timelines, because when already involved in a war elsewhere it would have to remobilize and redeploy resources.
 

amoy

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South Korea likely to resume teaching Chinese

Source: Global Times [00:10 February 01 2010] Comments
To consolidate the orthodox Korean language, South Korea set distinctive bans in the 1970s over the presence of Chinese characters in textbooks, and the result is a generation of Chinese-illiterate Koreans.
But with the increasing communication in recent years between China and South Korea, the teaching of Chinese characters is emerging as more and more important. Many Chinese training classes are springing up in Korean society.
As a result, the regulations on Chinese education appear primed for change.
South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported Friday that the Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation has submitted a research report to the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology, suggesting the inclusion of Chinese-character education into primary school courses.
Citing a survey during June and July of last year on 5,222 parents and teachers, the report pointed out that 83 percent of respondents (89.1 percent of parents and 77.3 percent of teachers) support teaching pupils Chinese characters.
The ministry advised that, from next year, pupils learn Chinese characters during the creative-experience period in school, with the promise of further Chinese studies to meet social needs.
After a nearly 40-year absence in textbooks – since the policy of specializing in the Korean language in the 1970s – the Chinese-character education is likely to return to primary schools, the newspaper added.
 

amoy

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Province's wage rise fuels belief that others in China will follow

By Tom Mitchell, Geoff Dyer in Hong Kong, in Beijing 2010-02-08

A decision by the province that is China's second biggest exporter to raise minimum wage rates has heightened expectations that other provinces and cities will soon follow, just as the central government's attention is shifting from economic stimulus to rising inflation.

Eastern Jiangsu province, which exports more than Brazil and South Africa combined, raised its monthly minimum wage rate by 13 per cent to Rmb960 ($140) last week. It was the first time the rate had been adjusted in two years.

The potential round of minimum wage increases comes amid signs that inflationary pressures are picking up in the Chinese economy after a rapid recovery in the second half of 2009 fuelled by a massive government stimulus programme. Government officials are debating whether to slow the pace of new loans and begin appreciating the currency to dampen inflationary expectations.

“This could be a red flag about wage inflation,” says Arthur Kroeber, editor of China Economic Quarterly. “Inflation in China is becoming systemic because of rising wages caused by a tighter labour market.”

Last year, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, local governments were reluctant to raise wage rates and put additional strain on already struggling factories. But now that officials are confident the worst is over for China's export sector, they are more willing to address workers' concerns.

“The economy is picking up again,” said Geoffrey Crothall, of the China Labour Bulletin. “Inflation and basic cost of living are rising. It's in local governments' interests to make some accommodation.”

Jiangsu's adjustment of the highly symbolic minimum wage also reflects growing competition among different regions to attract migrant workers after the Chinese new year holiday, next week. Neighbouring Shanghai is expected to raise its rate by double-digits on April 1.

Beijing and cities in southern Guangdong province, the country's biggest exporter, are considering adjustments over the coming few weeks, rather than months. Deputies to Guangdong's people's congress have even suggested linking minimum wage levels to the consumer price index.

The consumer price index rose from 0.7 per cent in November to 1.9 per cent in December, which some economists believe is the start of a concerted rise in inflation that could prompt authorities to tighten policy.

IT IS THE POOR WHO PAY FOR THE WEAK RENMINBI
By Arvind Subramanian 2010-02-08
China's exchange rate policy has largely been viewed through the prism of global imbalances. That has had three unfortunate consequences. It has allowed China to deflect attention away from its policy. It has obscured the real victims of this policy. And it has made political resolution of this policy more difficult.

No sooner is China's exchange rate policy criticised for creating global imbalances, and hence contributing to the recent global financial crisis, than the door is opened for China to muddy the intellectual waters. Why single us out, the Chinese say? Why not the other surplus-running countries such as Japan or Germany or the oil exporters? And, in any case, countries on the other side of the imbalance – namely, the large current account deficit-running countries – should carry the greatest responsibility for pursuing irresponsible macroeconomic and regulatory policies that led to “excessive consumption”. This debate cannot be settled. But inconclusiveness is just what China needs – and creates – to escape scrutiny of its policies.

The second consequence of the global imbalance perspective is that it has created an opposition between current account deficit and current account surplus countries, which has become a slanging match between the US and China. But an undervalued exchange rate is above all a protectionist trade policy, because it is the combination of an import tariff and an export subsidy. It follows therefore that the real victims of this policy are other emerging market and developing countries – because they compete more closely with China than the US and Europe, whose source of comparative advantage is very different from China's. In fact, developing countries face two distinct costs from China's exchange rate policy.

In the short run, with capital pouring into emerging market countries, their ability to respond to the threat of asset bubbles and overheating is undermined. Emerging market countries such as Brazil, India and South Korea are loath to allow their currencies to appreciate – to damp overheating – when that of a major trade rival is pegged to the dollar.

But the more serious and long-term cost is the loss in trade and growth in poorer parts of the world. Dani Rodrik of Harvard University estimates that China's undervaluation has boosted its long-run growth rate by more than 2 per cent by allowing greater output of tradable goods, a sector that was the engine of growth and an escape route from underdevelopment for postwar successes such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

Higher tradable goods production in China results in lower traded goods production elsewhere in the developing world, entailing a growth cost for these countries. Of course, some of these costs may have been alleviated by China's rapid growth and the attendant demand for other countries' goods. But China's large current account surpluses suggest that the alleviation is only partial.

These emerging market victims of China's exchange rate policy have remained silent because China is simply too big and powerful for them to take on. And this despite the fact that disaffected constituencies now encompass not just companies but also central bankers, who have found macro-economic management constrained by renminbi policy.

Hence the third consequence. By default, it has fallen to the US to carry the burden of seeking to change renminbi policy. But it cannot succeed because China will not be seen as giving in to pressure from its only rival for superpower status. Only a wider coalition, comprising all countries affected by China's undervalued exchange rate, stands any chance of impressing upon China the consequences of its policy and reminding it of its international responsibilities as a large, systemically important trader.

It is time to move beyond the global imbalance perspective and see China's exchange rate policy for what it is: mercantilist trade policy, whose costs are borne more by countries competing with China – namely other developing and emerging market countries – than by rich countries. The circle of countries taking a stand against China must be widened beyond the US to ramp up the pressure on it to repudiate its beggar-thy-neighbourism. But progress also requires that the silent victims speak up. Emerging market and developing countries must do a “Google” on China.
The writer is senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Center for Global Development
 

amoy

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CATS, MICE AND THE CHINESE MIDDLE CLASSES
From Dr David Camroux. 2010-01-26

Sir, Your informative series “Building Brics”, on the development of a middle class of consumers in China, indirectly provides the missing element in Gideon Rachman's analysis of the American misreading of China (“Why America and China will clash”, January 19).

US elites have always assumed that the embourgeoisement of Chinese society will lead, as it did historically in Europe and the US itself, to demands for representative democracy. Yet as a number of studies indicate, including David Goodman's recent book The New Rich in China, the “middle-classing” of China has not led to such exigencies, but rather demands for good governance. What counts is the ends rather than the means, a view reminiscent of Deng Xiaoping's famous quip on capitalism and communism: “It doesn't matter if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice.”

My own research in south-east Asia confirms that representative democracy and pluralism do not necessarily have a good “brand image”, being seen as dysfunctional (The Philippines), and/or conducive of instability (Thailand), and unable to deliver the social goods required. A visit to the affluent city-state of Singapore is a salutary reminder that one-party regimes can enjoy widespread support among the upwardly mobile middle classes, as long as they provide competent administration and foster personal enrichment.
David Camroux,

Senior Researcher,

Sciences Po,

Paris, France
 

aelite

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by the time Obama is done begging to these devils to save the US economy,China will own USA and only way back to number one for USA will be thru war with China.
Sorry ,sir. Devils is not a good word.
 

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