China Economy: News & Discussion

Discussion in 'China' started by Rage, Jun 1, 2009.

  1. K Factor

    K Factor A Concerned Indian Senior Member

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    I thought we were talking about deaths due to industrial safety regulations not being followed, and no care for the environment.

    You know what, two can play this game of yours, I can go on all day. :wink:
    [​IMG]

    2 million more results for China + Accident + Death than India.
     
  2. p2prada

    p2prada Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Coal mining: Most deadly job in China

    There is more in the article.
     
  3. huanle

    huanle Regular Member

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    ¡¾×ªÔØ¡¿Öйú¾­¼Ã±»¸ß¹À»¹Êǵ͹À£¿_ÍŸ±Ìì¿Õ
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    China's economy is overvalued or undervalued?

    Today the world's first superpower, President Barack Obama in the first year in office in China for the time called "luxury" four-day trip to China today once again highlights the emerging superpower's economic status. Despite the negative of the Western media continue to China, has worked tirelessly belittle liberals at home and abroad of China's economic achievement, but as a President of whom will naturally not about Barack Obama and influence, after all, the international reality is that the stresses strength . Strength, of course, do not blow out, but more is not banished forever. China since 1978, three decades of economic take-off is known as the greatest in human history, geo-political events. From 2008 to 2009, the Western deep economic crisis, while China is still thriving, in the counter-balance between the Chinese world, the world's first crown in the removal of the speed has accelerated noticeably. From the previous estimate in 2050 was reduced to 2030 or even 10 years after 2020. Is now the West selected out of the world's most powerful people, Obama first, Hu Jintao, second, Putin third, also in the proof of China's rise and new strengths.

    However, in the face of China's strong rise and the bright economic data, the global challenge is also set off a wave. It is somewhat funny that the question is now divided into two camps. One group that China's economic figures too high water, be overestimated. Those who think that China is seriously underestimated.

    There are over-represented based on 2. First, China has always been out of official figures out of official figures. From top to bottom are suspected of fraud. Second, China's economy is the lack of data correlation. Example, significant economic growth, but energy consumption has failed to simultaneously increased.

    Underestimate the reasons were many more. First, the scale of China which only five million yuan or more businesses, fall below these standards are often ignored. However, in practice the following operating entity of the massive five million there. Second, China's economic non-standardized, there are a large number of underground economy. This part is also often difficult to be reflected in statistics. Third, despite the state-owned enterprises exaggerated false content, but the private sector are often understated or concealed. Is a foreign-funded enterprises as well. Fourth, because of the sex industry, gambling is illegal in China, and therefore can not be the same as the West of statistical analysis. But in fact, the sex industry driving the economy has reached tens of millions of people, involving industry more. Such as hotels, restaurants, cosmetics industries. Taking these factors, China's economic aggregate has already surpassed Japan (2007 Japanese GDP of 4.3 trillion U.S. dollars, in 2008 China was 4.4 trillion U.S. dollars, China in 2008 is still up 9%, Japan is negative growth. Ironclad in China in 2009 increased by more than 8%, Japan is still a negative growth).

    It should be said of China's social and economic development and transformation of the complexity, massive and super-large-scale statistical results lead to question the reasons. In fact, how China's economic strength, there are still some controversial figures, we can not produce an indirect reflected. China's foreign exchange reserves ranking first in the world and even the G7 countries combined. Of course, some people say the dollar, China's foreign exchange reserves will shrink. But for countries like China in terms of very large scale, we are not a stall hawkers, today rose on the throw to go down on the smoke came in tomorrow, for China to ensure China's economic security is the first. There is such a huge amount of reserves, we can bring the world's speculators backed off and, once the domestic economy unexpected situation can be resolved in time. China's banking sector in 2003 is still at the edge of collapse, the results of the Chinese government took out a 30 billion U.S. dollars from foreign exchange reserves to inject capital to carry out reforms, the results to the present, China's banking sector is the world's most healthy position in the global top ten banks in order to occupy the first three great advantages. Profitability is now far behind the West Bank, and even the bankruptcy of Bank of America has reached an unprecedented scale, this year has been more than 100 banks closed their doors.

    Second, China to overtake Germany this year is the world's largest trading nation. China's Tenth Five-Year Planning, who is expected to reach one trillion U.S. dollars in 2010, resulting in 2007 bilateral trade volume topped two trillion U.S. dollars. Currently ranked the world's top ten ports in China accounts for six seats, and China's Shanghai has occupied the throne first. With regard to China's exports, has been a misconception that the majority of low to medium product. Indeed, according to France's "financial" (CAPITAL) data provided by Chinese high-tech exports beat the United States, Germany and Japan, the highest in the world. 3.5 times the total of France.

    Third, the output of major industrial and agricultural products in China for many years the highest in the world. China's grain production to 413 million tons in the world aotou beat the United States exclusively, or even almost finished third in the world, and the other most populous countries, India twice, ranked fifth in France six times. Meat production (74 million tons) is ranked second in the United States twice, twelve times more than France. More than 50 million tons of fruits and vegetables, is ranked second in India four times, the United States seven times. Steel production exceeded 500 million tons, exceeding the world's top ten steel producing countries combined, is five times the U.S. and Japan, is an outright Big Mac (in 1980 China, Japan and the United States is only one-third). Economic sector has always been there, "Oil is the blood of industrialization, the steel is the backbone of industrialization!" One said, It is on this basis, China's auto sales in 2009 surpassed the United States has also become the world's first. In fact, China has 210 industrial products ranked first in the world, including television, mobile phones, computers, beer, bicycles, chemical products, machinery and so on.

    Fourth, another important indicator of economic development from the energy point of view, China's total energy consumption of 1.863 billion tons of oil equivalent, second only to the United States, 2.361 billion tons in second place. Is the world's second largest oil consumer, the world's fifth largest oil producer, a daily consumption of 7.8 million barrels. Coal production accounts for almost half of the world, water and electricity more than a year added the size of Britain.

    In addition, China to attract foreign capital has a long-term three highest in the world. After the United States.

    China is not only a huge economies of scale, but also fairly healthy. The proportion of total debt to GDP, Japan's second to 195.5%, Italy, 7th 104% Canada 19 68.5% 64% France 22, Germany 24 63% United States 26 61%, India 31 58 % 50 43% United Kingdom and China is the 102 only 18%! !

    Now in China, not only economic indicators have been far ahead of China, that is, social indicators have also been living in the world precedent. China's R & D 'input ranked third in the world (behind the United States and Japan), invented the world's fifth patent application, but the growth rate continuously for more than 20 percent a decade, an increase tied for first with South Korea, the first Internet users, the country's largest mobile phone use, the fourth largest tourist country (the National Palace Museum visitors ranked second), China's insurance assets, the world's first (Ping An Insurance seventh). There is an indicator, though not the value of pride, but it could also be reflected in China's economic strength. Namely, carbon dioxide emissions in 2008 has surpassed the United States ranked first in the world (although per capita the United States is China's more than five times).

    There are a number of more interesting, the most serious water pollution in the top ten countries are: China, United States, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, Brazil, Indonesia, France, Ukraine. There are 20 developed countries, the former Italy (11), Spain (12), the United Kingdom (13), South Korea (15), sparsely populated of Canada (16).

    Clearly, the debate on China's economic data should be drawn to an end, perhaps the world's most economists believe that China can be a maximum of twenty years at least ten years than the United States is the most just and right answer to this question.

    Attachment: This data quoted from the French "Capital" magazine.
     
  4. rockdog

    rockdog Guest


    This is a old article around 2yrs ago:

    India the Superpower? Think again
    India won't be a superpower until it alleviates poverty - Feb. 9, 2007

    ...

    Only 10 percent of the entire Indian labor force works in the formal economy; of these fewer than half are in the private sector.
    ...

    Luce estimates that there are 7 million Indians working in the formal manufacturing sector in India - and 100 million in China.

    ...

    ----------------------------------

    I agree that these accidents are the high price we are paying for the development.

    But I have some points regarding these data:

    1) India is far away from industrialized,

    2) only 7million (maybe plus now) is on official manufacturing industrial

    So it will be very normally that India has less accident on this field, if we considering the degree of industrialization between China and India, and total number of working people.

    Of course, home stay will be much more safer than working outside...
     
  5. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    China stock bubble to burst next year: Morgan Stanley

    26 Nov 2009, 1613 hrs IST, REUTERS
    SHANGHAI: China's ballooning stock market bubble, fuelled by excessive liquidity, is likely to burst in the first half of 2010, punctured by
    economic concerns arising from higher-than-expected inflation, Morgan Stanley Asia executive director Jerry Lou said on Thursday.

    China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index may peak around 4,000 points, as banks continue to lend massively to infrastructure projects initiated this year under the government's $586 billion stimulus package, Lou told a media briefing in Shanghai.

    The Shanghai index ended Thursday down 3.62 per cent at 3,170.979 points. "An asset price bubble is forming in China, but that process hasn't finished yet," Lou said.

    "There's little room to reduce lending next year. Too much money boosts gross demand, which would translate into inflation."

    China has boosted government spending on infrastructure and social welfare projects, engineered a lending boom and re-pegged its currency to the US dollar to support exports in response to the fallout of the global financial crisis.

    These measures have proved effective in the short term with China's economic growth likely to exceed nine per cent in 2010, but on the other hand, they aggravated the imbalances which are at the heart of China's mode of development, Lou said.

    "We see higher investment and savings rate, and thus increasing imbalances," Lou said. "I don't expect to see a so-called golden decade for China. If China cannot stop the bleeding, it needs a blood transplant."

    Lou suggested investors should buy energy and consumer-related stocks which would benefit from inflation next year, but should avoid property, steel and banking stocks.

    China's property prices are too high, and the government should levy higher taxes to curb speculation and make homes affordable to ordinary Chinese, he said. Lou also suggested that China should decisively deregulate its capital market and allow an one-off revaluation of its currency, the yuan, in a bid to restructure its economy quickly, even at the cost of tens of millions of lost jobs.
     
  6. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    ^^ Finally, Western investment firms are beginning to see the light. ^^
     
  7. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    Another Gordon.Chang style anticipation......let's wait and see....

    frankly speaking, if the next year Wall street collapses again and Morgan Stanley gets bankrupt for it or taken over by a chinese company, I will not be suprised at all
     
  8. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    That's funny considering this guy's business is to sell China-A shares. :sarcastic:
     
  9. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Looks like sh!t is hitting the fan in China. Banks had to go to markets to raise the capital?? Isn't it weird when banks have all the money of chinese people who have some 40% saving rate. What happened to all that money??. Must be gone in stock and real estate bubble which is going to explode sooner than later.

     
  10. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    hmm, lets see whether DFI is ahead of the curve on China or head buried in sand to China's arrival on the Global Stage. :D
     
  11. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    China Overcapacity Wreaks Global Harm, EU Group Says

    By Bloomberg News

    Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China’s excess industrial capacity is “wreaking far-reaching damage on the global economy,” stoking trade tensions and raising the risk of bad loans, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said.

    A 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package is worsening overcapacity, especially in the steel, aluminum, cement, chemical, refining and wind-power equipment industries, according to a study by the chamber and Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, released in Beijing today.

    The world’s third-biggest economy has rebounded this year on stimulus spending and a $1.3 trillion credit boom. China is adding capacity when global demand is yet to recover from the financial crisis, increasing the risk of trade frictions undermining commerce and making the threat of non-performing loans within the nation “ever larger,” the EU Chamber said.

    “The Chinese stimulus package has poured credit into increasingly questionable projects,” the business group said, without identifying specific ventures. “The global impact already can be felt in the form of growing trade tensions.”

    U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao pledged this month to work to ease frictions, exacerbated by U.S. duties on Chinese tires.

    The chamber recommended 30 measures to cut overcapacity, including letting an undervalued yuan gradually appreciate, reducing a “subsidy” for Chinese manufacturers.

    Energy Prices

    It also proposed lowering energy-price subsidies, raising interest rates to reduce easy credit, increasing dividend payments by state-owned enterprises, and spending more on health care and social security to encourage consumption and cut precautionary savings.

    No comment was immediately available today from China’s commerce ministry.

    In September, China’s State Council approved plans to curb expansion in industries including steel, cement, glass, coke, wind turbines and shipbuilding. The government has also introduced measures to limit land supply to sectors with excess capacity. So far, the government’s efforts have been ineffective, the chamber said.

    China’s excess capacity is an “international concern” as goods that can’t be sold locally may be sent to markets that shrank because of the global slump, European Union Trade Commissioner Catherine Ashton said in Beijing Sept. 9. Ashton has since been named the EU’s top diplomat.

    ‘Unfounded’ Criticism

    Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the Chinese central bank, said yesterday in Melbourne that that the “worrying” long-term effects of China’s expansionary policies include overcapacity, bad loans, and inefficient investment.

    Not everyone agrees with the EU Chamber’s assessment. Isaac Meng, a senior economist at BNP Paribas SA in Beijing, said industries including steel and cement are not big exporters and claims of damage to the global economy are “unfounded.”

    “In sectors where China is a massive exporter, like electronics, there’s no overcapacity because when exports collapse factories just close,” he added.

    Increasing trade tensions between China and the U.S. are the result of high unemployment in the U.S., which is creating “political pressure to reduce China’s exports,” Meng said.

    China as ‘Victim’

    China’s own economy is the main “victim” of excess capacity, the chamber said. Lower profits mean companies lack cash to invest in research and development and develop more valued-added goods, it said. Businesses are also forced to cut costs, contributing to slower wage growth and less consumption, the report added.

    “This is a major obstacle on the government’s path to become both an innovative and sustainable economy,” the report said.

    China’s lending surge this year focused mainly on expanding production at state-owned enterprises, the report said. This led growth in fixed-asset investment by manufacturing companies to jump to 50 percent by mid-year from 25 percent in January and February, the chamber said.

    Companies in industries with overcapacity will struggle to repay credit, increasing the risk of a repeat of the 1990s surge in non-performing loans, the chamber said.

    China’s five largest banks have submitted plans to regulators for raising money after unprecedented lending eroded their capital, according to four people with knowledge of the matter.

    It’s “particularly troubling” that more than 140 billion yuan was invested in the steel industry in the first half of this year and that 58 million tons of capacity are under construction when global demand may decline 14.9 percent in 2009, the report said. The chamber also warned of “a looming deluge” of extra cement capacity in the nation.
     
  12. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    I just think that Indians should not count on the collapse of Chinese economy..otherwise Indians would be babies who will cry for nothing left after they find China doesn't collapse as they wish.
     
  13. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    China Losses Inevitable as Dollar Weakens, Ex-PBOC Adviser Says - Bloomberg.com

    China Losses Inevitable as Dollar Weakens, Ex-PBOC Adviser Says


    Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China’s foreign-exchange reserves face a “triple whammy” as inflation, oversupply and the “inevitable” decline of the dollar threaten to erode the value of its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, said Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the Chinese central bank.

    China needs to divert its trade and investment surpluses away from U.S. debt if it is unable to reduce them, Yu, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee from 2004 to 2006, said in a speech in Melbourne last night. The nation, with the world’s largest foreign-exchange reserves of $2.3 trillion, is the U.S.’s biggest creditor, holding $798.9 billion of Treasuries as of September.

    “Capital losses -- let alone obtaining decent returns -- seem inevitable,” said Yu, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “There is no question whatsoever that the U.S. dollar will go south, which started in April 2002 and, after a short interval, restarted in March 2009.”

    The dollar traded near a 14-year low against the yen as the Federal Reserve signaled it will tolerate a weaker greenback and Russia’s central bank announced plans to add Canadian dollars to its reserves to reduce its reliance on the U.S. currency. Russia, holder of the world’s third-largest foreign currency reserves, and China this year suggested the world economy would perform better with an alternative reserve currency to the greenback.

    A 10 percent slide in the greenback would cut the value of China’s dollar-denominated assets by about 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion), exceeding Chinese central government spending under the nation’s $586 billion stimulus plan, Yu said Oct. 28 at a forum in Beijing.

    The U.S. dollar has declined against all 16 of the most- traded currencies this year. It traded at $1.5125 per euro as of 9:22 a.m. in Tokyo and has weakened 8.3 percent against the currency this year.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at [email protected]
    Last Updated: November 25, 2009 20:49 EST
     
  14. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    So all these reports from Morgan Stanley, Bloomburg, EU Chamber of Commerce are all the current Gordon Changs eh? :sarcastic:

    Wake up and smell the coffee. If all these pro-China investment groups are warning of a bubble, you can bet it is coming. Their business is to paint rosy pictures of China, and or get the CCP to stop reckless policy so they don't lose money.
     
  15. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    guy, what is currency?

    in a simple word, the value of one currency is not the exchange rate, but its purchase power .

    the purpose why CHina holds so many dollars is not to earn more other currencies in exchange markets ,but to buy resources with them.

    as long as the price of resource marked by dollars is not ,such as oil and ores, the dollars in the hands of CHina are still there.
     
  16. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    China has already lost 40% + by holding dollars, that 40% less resources Chinese can buy, and the bubble is just starting to burst with the debt where there are no buyers or a market for the debt so in reality holding 33% US debt and 40%+ depreciated asset along with the slavery of having to buy more debt to continue buisness with USA does not make the Chinese smart buisnessmen, but the losers in a one way trade relationship with USA.
     
  17. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    well,as I posted once , CHinese stock market is always just a enormous casino and is hardly connected with CHinese real economy.....

    as for bubbles, there were/are e bubbles there and the bubble will be...

    however, so what even if the bubbles in stock market were to be thrusted?

    During 2007-2008 and 1998-2003, the stock index of Shanghai went down 50% twice+,but CHinese economy still went up and up...
     
  18. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    1.are you ignorant about the price of oil and other resource?

    when the price of oil went up to 140 dollars , the dollars in the hands of CHina devalued most....

    but now.....

    2.the essence of international trade is the exchange of goods.

    to china , the trade is to buy recourse with industry products;

    to most developing countries , the trade is to buy industry product with resouce;

    to USA, the trade is to buy everything with IOU,that is dollars.

    once the IOU of USA is not available any more, CHina can still buy resouce, bacause China still has industry products and developing countries still have resouce.

    However, if IOU of USA is not available any more, USA would find that USA almost has nothing needed by others,except weapons and boeing planes
     
  19. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    what is ignorance??
    1 dollar in your holding now has 55 cent value or buying power.
    Russia and India and many other central banks dumping the dollar
    Russia switching to canadian looney
    China has 40% holding in US debt no market =no value china is counting it as an asset when it is worthless since nobody in their right mind wants it
    China has to continue exports to USA for which they still receive an American IOU which is esentially worthless in the international market
    do not mix US IOU which are bonds and treasury notes with Dollars.
    US IOU is worthless while dollars are liquid and still have value but the dilemma for China is they continue to accept the worthless IOU when nobody else in the world does, what does China know that the rest of the world dosen't??
     
  20. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Urban China is heavily invested in the near $10 trillion value of Chinese stock markets. A collapse of those markets would heavily effect them, especially as household debts are at all time highs. Urban is the only real economy there is in China that has any value.

    When the bubble bursts, no bubble will be.

    Chinese economic collapse, but hey --- you don't seem to care about losing trillions of dollars. :sarcastic:

    In 2003 China was on the verge of collapse, only thing that saved it was bundling up NPLs and shoving them under the rug to save the banques. The bear of 2008 was only because it was WAY overvalued. Billionaires pocket the money while the working stiff lost his shirt. Chinese economy goes up and up because it is pumped with trillions of loans and subsidies, they will have to take account soon.
     

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