China Economy: News & Discussion

Discussion in 'China' started by Rage, Jun 1, 2009.

  1. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    you are clueless about the reality.

    during the second quarter,china's economy grow about 8% and is expected to grow 9% easily this year,due to the heavy stimulus.

    such a growth may cause inflation and overheat of economy and it worrys lot of people including me.

    I do think the prime task of Chinese government should be wary of overheat of economy ,instead of depress, now.


    India is another case.


    India now still should struggle to avoid depress.
     
  2. SammyCheung

    SammyCheung Guest

    China is growing too fast. India is drowning in debt. It's going to get downgraded soon. The whole Indian economy is based on government spending to please poor tribes here and poor tribe there.
     
  3. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    that indeed is a very smart recovery and i am pleasantly surprised, but then by now i should have been accustomed to prc keep doing that on regular occasions in various fields, good on them and this does show the stimulus package going into the economy has started bearing results, and if the trends continues i am sure not far from now prc would have gotten back to their double digit growth rate ways.

    in all this jubilation a few of the articles that i have read above do not quite argue well about the way the things are being run especially with the stimulus package ending up in the real estate and where the banks run a huge risk of seeing these loans end up as bad debts in the long run which also has a bad history to it in prc. all one can hope for is no such thing happens and things move on smoothly because if few of the prc banks were to go down now, well the timing would be disaster for the global economy as a whole.

    that said it is completely astonishing how prc keeps pulling it off and mind you all this with the back drop of prc as big time export based economy where consumption as a % of economy does not account for more than 30% but consumption along with investment rate and government spending have been instrumental in pulling this off, but what is the state of affairs of fiscal deficit for the prc or at the moment they are not too bothered about it, as also the push to the inflation rate does not come as a surprise as is being mentioned by our chinese friends, is this a recipe for disaster.

    i am not too confident of this growth but prc has shown that they can live with such overheating in the past, so lets see how things go this time round and if they do not have much bad debts by the end of it then i am sure prc would most certainly be flying high again.

    Sammy,

    yes, sadly with india even being a democratic country and supposedly more tiled towards capitalism still finds its government making 40% of the total investment that happens in india. that rate just shows how much of government we still have to encounter in our day-to-day lives, but then that roots from the fact that india isnt quite as well reformed unlike others as also india is still having strong roots in the policy of socialism.

    mind you this investment rate of the government in 1980 was at 38% so seriously there has been no change but then what is important is has the over all quality of investment changed and the answer is a sure shot yes because this money has gone a long way in helping out the down trodden of the society with its mass appeal where it is further helpful in creating semi skilled labor force which would be of great use as the industrialization of the country picks up as also this is a way of making sure there is a system of social security for the mass.

    i am not concerned with the above mentioned figures but more about the corruption that we face, if we can successfully work that out, india would be galloping to a prospective tomorrow where the speed at which poverty is rooted out would be astonishing. think and reflect on this statement where rajiv gandhi in the late 80s said, of evey rupee invested only 15paisa actually gets invested, now if this same 15p can be turned to 60p, world would be stunned of how fast india is able to bring about the change.
     
  4. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    the stimulus package is too harsh.

    it may cause infaltion and other negative effects,while it has brought china out of depression.

    Once oversea demand is to resume, the peril of infaltion will be more clear.

    it is the hign time to take measues to cool down the economy.
     
  5. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    badguy,

    what according to you should be these containing measures as in what all sectors need to targeted and how, as also what is status of rains in prc, are you people also expecting food related inflation in the coming months?
     
  6. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    the price of real asset is rising fast now. I have posted one thread about my buying an condo.
    Beijing should take measue to stop the liquid flooded by banks . too much bankl loans are flooding the country.
     
  7. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    What do you make of it?

    Is China up a gum tree?
     
  8. SammyCheung

    SammyCheung Guest

    LOL. China's GDP grows at nearly 9% per year. America is in a depression, possibly facing hyperinflation.

    Guess who's on top in this fight?
     
  9. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Oh goody!

    Here is something to cheer one about!

     
  10. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    The Chinese news does not agree with you (as posted above).

    But then, you must be right and the newspaper, which gets it info from the CCP, is wrong!

    Hyperinflation acceptable, but what about hyperventilation?
     
  11. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    a outdated news posted on March 31th?

    guy, you should have a look at the date first!
     
  12. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    I can feel people here worry about the rise of real asset price.

    it should be the first time that people have thought so since in early 2008 Beijing decided to cool economy.

    too many bank loans have been poured into the economy,which is stimulating bubbles.


    if Beijing keep it on, Chinese economy will ride on a crazy hourse ,just as it did before 2008.
     
  13. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Experts are saying that China is having twin bubbles, one the asset (share market) bubble and the other real estate bubble. It might be devastating if CCP lets this to continue.
     
  14. 1.44

    1.44 Member of The Month SEPTEMBER 2009 Senior Member

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    China's stunning rebound
    July 16, 2009

    Beijing - China's economy grew 7.9 percent in the second quarter of 2009, the government said Thursday, in a stunning turnaround for the Asian powerhouse that offered some hope for the rest of the world.

    With help from $580 billion in government pump priming, the world's third biggest economy picked up pace again after the global economic crisis dragged growth down to 6.1 percent in the first quarter.

    "The economy is rebounding and the strength of the recovery is increasing," National Bureau Spokesman Li Xiaochao said at a media briefing to release the data.

    China's gross domestic product grew by 7.1 percent in the first half of 2009 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to the bureau.

    This put China back on track to achieve its goal of 8.0 percent growth for the year, despite the financial crisis hitting its crucial export sector particularly hard.

    Analysts said the rebound in China would offer a boost of confidence for the global economy as it struggles out of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

    "China is the first big country to have made a strong comeback, so its rebound will definitely offer a stabilising signal for the world economy," said He Jun, a Beijing-based analyst with the Anbound Consulting research group.

    However, He and other analysts cautioned that immediate and direct benefits would be limited to countries that import heavily into China, chiefly resource-rich exporters and neighbouring nations in Asia.

    Before the global economic crisis struck, China experienced double-digit annual growth from 2003 to 2007, and again for the first two quarters of last year.

    To fight the downturn, the government began implementing a four-trillion-yuan ($580-billion) stimulus package from November last year.

    Li described the impact of the package as "remarkable", but he also warned pitfalls lay ahead amid concerns of bubbles in real estate and other key sectors.



    "There are many difficulties and challenges existing in the current national economic performance. The base for recovery is still weak. The momentum for picking up is unstable," he said.

    Economists also warned that China's rebound was unbalanced, with the export sector still struggling while massive bank lending had fuelled the potential for asset price bubbles and inflation.

    "Although private sector investment has picked up, growth still relies heavily on the central government's expansionary policies," said Lu Zhengwei, a Shanghai-based economist with the Industrial Bank.

    Nevertheless, Lu and other analysts said China's economy would likely grow by around 8.0 percent growth in 2009, in line with the government's target.

    The figure is generally seen as the minimum growth needed to create enough jobs and prevent major social unrest in the nation of 1.3 billion people.

    China's exports dropped 21.4 percent year-on-year in June, the government said last week, the eighth straight monthly decline.

    However, industrial output, which illustrates activity in the nation's millions of factories and workshops, expanded by 9.1 percent in the second quarter of 2009 from a year earlier, the bureau said.

    In June, industrial output increased by 10.7 percent, and by 7.0 percent for the first half of 2009.

    China's urban fixed asset investments, a measure of government spending on infrastructure, rose 33.6 percent in the first half of 2009 compared with the same period a year earlier, the statistics bureau said.

    Investments in urban fixed assets increased by 35.3 percent in June year-on-year, according to the bureau.

    And the consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, fell 1.7 percent in June compared with the same month a year earlier, a further decline from May's drop of 1.4 percent, the bureau said. - Sapa-AFP
     
  15. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    most of the two bubbles had bee squeezed by chinese givernment before august ,2008. but after the finacial crisis bring china into the edge of depression, Chinese government had to loose the condition of loans and cause the flood of loan in china.


    so, now the two bubbles seems to rebound.
     
  16. shotgunner

    shotgunner Regular Member

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    I don't understand what is the cheer about, can you elaborate more?
     
  17. shotgunner

    shotgunner Regular Member

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    I used to think hyperinflation reduces purchasing power hence lowers living standard, why you say it is acceptable?

    What is hyperventilation?
     
  18. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    China's Beijing Auto says fails in bid for GM's Opel

    Fri Jul 24, 2009 9:14am EDT

    [​IMG]
    A traffic sign shows the way to the Opel plant in Ruesselsheim July 14, 2009.


    BEIJING (Reuters) - China's Beijing Auto said intellectual property issues were behind its failure to reach an deal with General Motors over its Opel unit.

    General Motors' European business said on Thursday it had agreed to continue detailed talks with both Magna and RHJ International on its German unit Opel, but did not mention Beijing Auto, which had also submitted an offer.

    "In the negotiations over intellectual property, we have been in constant communications with U.S.' General Motors," the company said in an e-mailed statement on Friday.

    "Regrettably, both parties failed to reach agreement on (the intellectual property) issue," said the company, quoting an unnamed spokesperson.

    Beijing Auto did not mention in the statement what are the next possible steps after the end of its Opel bid.

    But sources told Reuters this week that the Beijing city government will fully support a bid by the company for Ford Motor's Volvo car unit if Beijing Auto failed in its quest Opel.

    Beijing Auto, controlled by the Beijing government, aims to more than double its annual vehicle sales to 2 million units by the end of 2015 from merely 771,639 units in 2008.

    But the automaker, ranked fifth in China, does not even have its own car brand. Its four-year old Mercedes-Benz car venture with Daimler AG broke even last year and its tie-up with Hyundai Motor Co has a long way to go before catching up with top players in the market such as Volkswagen AG.

    Beijing Auto did not give details on what products or technology the intellectual property issues were about.

    In its bid to General Motors, Beijing Auto had pledged to maintain GM's stake in Opel to the largest extent, to ensure Opel's market share in Europe stable and to support Opel's expansion into the Chinese market, the statement said.


    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE56N16N20090724
     
  19. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Chinese GDP a case of 'fake it ‘til you make it'

    China’s GDP figures might show that the world’s third-largest economy is coming out of its funk. But few economists will take Thursday’s report at face value. While their caution is wise, the Middle Kingdom probably is recovering – tentatively.

    By John Foley, breakingviews.com
    Published: 3:16PM BST 15 Jul 2009

    The country’s leadership has set a target of 8pc growth for 2009. Most economists believe the magic number will be hit, as do 88pc of investors in China, according to an ING survey. Reported growth in the first quarter was 6.1pc, and a 7.1pc “print” is expected for the second quarter, followed by above-trend growth in the second half.

    But the GDP growth rate in China is too important a number politically to be reliable. From the bottom to the top of the data chain, everyone has a reason to report numbers that look politically correct. As economist Charles Goodhart pointed out, when leaders turn a measurement into a target, it stops being a good measurement.

    Still, simpler indicators also point to recovery. Car sales rose 37pc in June. Electricity consumption rose 3.7pc, reversing May’s decline. Production of steel, diesel, speciality chemicals and even fridges are all back at pre-downturn levels. Exports are still falling, but a slower fall in imports suggests China's domestic consumption is recovering faster than that of its trade partners.

    None of these indicators is perfect. Sales can rise because prices are cut to unsustainably low levels. Industrial production counts what's made, not what's sold. And rising imports could be a sign of firms buying materials to make products that as yet have no buyers.

    Either way, financial aid has certainly helped make this recovery, if there is one, look healthier. The central bank has pumped three times more money into the economy so far this year than in the same period last year. A record rise in the country’s foreign exchange holdings in June suggests speculative foreign money is now adding to the wall of liquidity.

    Whatever the GDP figures show, China remains an unbalanced economy. Real private consumption is immature. Only time can change that. The export engine remains dormant. Only a recovery in the US and Europe can get it moving. Over those things, Beijing has next to no control.

    Chinese GDP a case of 'fake it ‘til you make it' - Telegraph
     
  20. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    yes, west medias and lots of chinese medias always insist that China's GDP be "fake".
     

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