China and Japan begin talks on building alliance

[Vladimir79]

If you round up 65 years, it is 100 years.

Why would I round up 100-200 from 65?

The point remains the same. It is old thinking. Japan did not lack resources when she waged war on China. In fact, because of Japanese aggression in China during the 1930s, the US started to impose embargoes on Japan for items such as rubber.

The US imposed alot of embargoes, but the most devastating was oil of which Japan recieved 80% from Amerikans. China will seek more oil among many other things it needs to grow. Since most of China's materials are imported by sea they will seek to cut that dependence since it is not so vulnerable to attack. The Far East is a direct land route not threatened by the rest of the world.

If Japan had not waged war on China, the US would have continued to supply Japan with her raw material needs.

If Japan didn't want to depend on imported materials, they never would have invaded the mainland in the first place.

The US does not need 750 military bases to trade. The US is a busybody and it is providing security to the rest of the world for free. For example, US military bases in Britain, Germany, South Korea, Japan, etc. serve no real purpose. The Cold War is over, but the expensive bases are still there. What a waste of money.

The US keeps those bases to maintain a presence over its financial empire. If it didn't, countries would turn to nationalisation as it has in Latin Amerika costing their big business billions in lost assets. Among other things it prevents hostile nations from taking over their business interests from countries that seek to take over the next. Above all they do it to protect their energy supplies. They don't do it to make the world a safe trade haven, they do it to protect their exploitation of the globe.

Even if fuel prices increase, China has plenty of coal. If necessary, China can build more CTL (coal-to-liquid) plants.

China can build all the CTL plants it wants, it won't change their dependence on fossil fuels and the more it grows, the less relavent CTL becomes. They import around 4 million barrels a day, their current CTL capacity is 1m a year. It won't last them 7 hours for an annual output. If fuel consumption doubles it will mean even less.

I understand your point with regards to Ukraine. Though Ukraine is a sovereign country, as a practical matter, I don't think anyone is willing to fight a war with Russia to defend the Ukraine. To quote the British show "Mr. Prime Minister:" we defend the weak against the strong, but Russia is too strong!

China's future military aspirations rest largely on what Ukraine can give them, that being assistance with aircraft carriers, strategic airlift, and amphibous capability. All that is required to project power. If China finds that source threatened they will not be happy. If the Western powers had the backing of China against a Kremlin move on Kyiv, they could have an economic alliance that would cripple us. With us in a weakened state and our forces deployed against Ukraine, China might try to take advantage of the situation.

 

[Martian]

"The Far East is a direct land route not threatened by the rest of the world."

The Far East connects to Alaska. China has no significant trade partners in Alaska.

"If Japan didn't want to depend on imported materials, they never would have invaded the mainland in the first place."

Japan suffered from old thinking. After 65 years, Japan is more prosperous than ever by staying within her territorial boundaries.

"If it didn't, countries would turn to nationalisation as it has in Latin Amerika costing their big business billions in lost assets. Among other things it prevents hostile nations from taking over their business interests from countries that seek to take over the next."

I concede that some US military bases may have a deterrent effect on nationalization of US factories in some countries.

"China can build all the CTL plants it wants, it won't change their dependence on fossil fuels and the more it grows, the less relavent CTL becomes."

Good point on the limited effect of CTL. Nevertheless, China does not covet the Russian Far East for oil. There is plenty of oil that China can buy from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Sudan, Angola, Venezuela, and in the future from Brazil and Kazakhstan.

"If the Western powers had the backing of China against a Kremlin move on Kyiv, they could have an economic alliance that would cripple us. With us in a weakened state and our forces deployed against Ukraine, China might try to take advantage of the situation."

China is unlikely to help the Western powers against Russia. If Russia falls, China stands alone. China will become easy pickings for the Western powers plus her allies (i.e. Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and possibly India). Without Russia, China will also stand alone in the UNSC. Without Russian participation, SCO does not have sufficient heft to hold off NATO. It is in China's interest to help Russia withstand Western pressure. Unlike the West, China did not criticize Russia in its war with Georgia.

 

[Vladimir79]

"The Far East is a direct land route not threatened by the rest of the world."

The Far East connects to Alaska. China has no significant trade partners in Alaska.

I was talking about forgoing protection of sea routes.

"If Japan didn't want to depend on imported materials, they never would have invaded the mainland in the first place."

Japan suffered from old thinking. After 65 years, Japan is more prosperous than ever by staying within her territorial boundaries.

Now that they are a defeated nation. Chicoms don't follow the same rules.

China does not covet the Russian Far East for oil. There is plenty of oil that China can buy from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Sudan, Angola, Venezuela, and in the future from Brazil and Kazakhstan.

Do you know the meaning of peak oil?

China is unlikely to help the Western powers against Russia. If Russia falls, China stands alone. China will become easy pickings for the Western powers plus her allies (i.e. Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and possibly India). Without Russia, China will also stand alone in the UNSC. Without Russian participation, SCO does not have sufficient heft to hold off NATO. It is in China's interest to help Russia withstand Western pressure. Unlike the West, China did not criticize Russia in its war with Georgia.

Stands alone against what? China is in bed with the Western powers. Now they turn to Japan, their sworn enemy for generations. China has nothing to fear from them accept an attempt on Taiwan. They are content keeping that status quo. As long as they have their own veto, they don't need Russia. China didn't support the repulse of Georgian aggression either which has been taken with a sour note in the Kremlin and media.

 

[Martian]

"Now that they are a defeated nation. Chicoms don't follow the same rules."

If China is not a peaceful nation intent on staying within her borders then explain to me why she has not invaded and annexed Mongolia or Laos by now? China has not fought a war in 30 years. Don't you think 30 years is a strong indication of peaceful intent?

"Do you know the meaning of peak oil?"

Peak oil is a theory. They've been saying peak oil for decades. And yet, the world keeps finding new big fields. The Brazilian offshore find is only the latest.

"As long as they have their own veto, they don't need Russia."

As a technical matter, you are correct. However, as a realistic matter, I don't agree. China is a pragmatic country. When the rest of the P4 feel strongly about an issue, she will not act as a spoiler. For example, waiving NPT restrictions on India to allow India to buy uranium from the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG). Though it is not in China's interest, due to American pressure, China went along with the waiver for India.

 

[A.V.]

warning

What suprised me is you are worring about india when this "east asea community" is located next to russia's door.

Why a russian care so much about india's interest?

Am i missing anthing?

[mod] DO not attack or flame bait a miitary pro or any other dfi member ,if you have any doubt report your concern to the mods.
to clear your doubts i ask you to read vladimirs complete profile and his introduction post[/mod]

 

[Vladimir79]

"Now that they are a defeated nation. Chicoms don't follow the same rules."

If China is not a peaceful nation intent on staying within her borders then explain to me why she has not invaded and annexed Mongolia or Laos by now? China has not fought a war in 30 years. Don't you think 30 years is a strong indication of peaceful intent?

If China invaded Mongolia they would face a quick Russian retaliation as we are remaking them a satellite state. They already tried expanding into SEA and got their arse handed to them by Vietnam. Now they are taking islands and archipeligoes and claim an EZ bigger than any in the world. The US, India, Russia, and Japan have successfully kept them pinned up thanks to their lack of military innovation. When they see an advantage they will strike.

"Do you know the meaning of peak oil?"

Peak oil is a theory. They've been saying peak oil for decades. And yet, the world keeps finding new big fields. The Brazilian offshore find is only the latest.

Peek oil is no theory, it is a physical fact. There will come a time when the price of extraction is no longer affordable and the prices will spike. Brazilian find doesn't begin to cover the wells that are going dry.

"As long as they have their own veto, they don't need Russia."

As a technical matter, you are correct. However, as a realistic matter, I don't agree. China is a pragmatic country. When the rest of the P4 feel strongly about an issue, she will not act as a spoiler. For example, waiving NPT restrictions on India to allow India to buy uranium from the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG). Though it is not in China's interest, due to American pressure, China went along with the waiver for India.

And how is that an example of Russia needing China? That is an example of US needing China. They abstain from everything that is important to us. It is better to have an enemy that you know than a fence sitter who can stab you in the back.

 

[RPK]

Japan?s new PM seeks to build trust with Beijing, Seoul

Tokyo: Japan's new Prime Minister will seek to keep periodically fraught ties with China and South Korea on track at weekend summits, avoiding rows that could hurt economic links and pitching his idea of an East Asia regional grouping.


A meeting of leaders from China, Japan and South Korea in Beijing on Saturday is also likely to discuss what could come next for the regional partners after North Korea signalled this week it could return to nuclear disarmament talks.

Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama is expected to be conciliatory with China despite rivalry and worries about Beijing's military build-up, but analysts say it will take time to build trust given China's bitter memories of Japan's wartime occupation.

"Given growing economic ties, there is no worry about a drastic worsening of the Japan-China relationship," Hu Wei, professor and dean of School of International and Public Affairs at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, told reporters in Tokyo.

"But there is still a gap between their values and public sentiment, so you cannot be fully optimistic."

Japan's ties with China chilled markedly during then-prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's 2001-2006 tenure. His visits to Tokyo's Yasukuni shrine for war dead outraged Beijing, which sees the Shinto shrine as a symbol of Japan's past militarism.

But the need to thaw Sino-Japanese relations, given deepening economic ties, prompted all three of Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party successors to refrain from paying respects at the shrine.

Hatoyama, whose Democratic Party ousted the long-dominant LDP in an August 30 poll, has also said he will not visit Yasukuni.

Getting along is essential for both Tokyo and Beijing.

China is now Japan's biggest trading partner and the second largest export destination after the United States.

But Tokyo faces the tough challenge of responding to Beijing's rising global clout. Some analysts expect China to surpass Japan as the world's No 2 economy late this year or next.

"Leaders in both Japan and China know it would not be wise to quarrel," University of Tokyo professor Akio Takahara said. "Healthy competition is good, but they know it should not be a zero-sum game."

Regional cooperation

Hatoyama says he wants deeper ties with Asia and to steer a diplomatic course more independent of the United States.

Climate change and the fate of North Korea will be high on the agenda at the summit. But Japanese officials say Hatoyama will focus on building personal ties with his counterparts rather than getting down to the nitty-gritty of policy challenges.

Hatoyama, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will issue two joint statements after the summit -- one on balancing economic growth and preserving the environment and the other on deepening "win-win" political and economic ties among the three countries, they added.

Hatoyama and Lee, who will hold a separate bilateral summit on Friday in Seoul, are likely to be keen to hear directly from Wen on Beijing's take on North Korea's nuclear arms ambitions after his rare visit to Pyongyang this week.

Japan also wants to firm up the idea of forming an East Asian Community inspired by the European Union.

The idea has been floated since the 1990s, when it ran into US opposition, and is now the focus of annual regional summits. Tokyo has acknowledged that it would take decades to boost political integration and create a common currency in a politically and culturally diverse region.

"This would be a worthy objective, but realising it would be a very distant goal," said Liu Jiangyong, professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

 

[smiling_scorpion]

We will be glad to get a good relationship if Japan is useful and friendly.to the opposite,if the basic has gone, There will be no smile any more.All of the countries around the world follow this rule.

 

[p2prada]

Slightly off-topic:

Do you really think that failure in Afghanistan is because of soldiers on ground or political policies? Anyway, we know that the real source of terrorism in Afghanistan lies in Pakistan, so Afghanistan cannot be dealt without dealing with Pakistan.

NATO is no longer an independent functioning body like before. There's too much American presence. Poke a stick at any NATO country and they will collectively retaliate with bureaucratic jingoism and not with another stick. In another 20 years, if the Russians invade one of the East European NATO countries, do you really expect France, Germany and GB to actually send military forces to counter Russia.

The Americans are already backing down from the European missile defense system.:scared_sofa:

Anyways China is over-hyped as a military power. The populations of both China and India is too large to be a superpower in this decade or the next. China alone cannot handle both Russia and US at the same time.

 

[redragon]

Nations urge early N Korea talks

Leaders of China, South Korea and Japan have urged an early resumption of talks on North Korea's nuclear programme.

During talks in Beijing, the three leaders said they were committed to a denuclearised Korean peninsula.

Tokyo and Seoul have been pushing a policy of withholding aid packages until after the North has dismantled its nuclear weapons programme.

But correspondents say that winning the support of China - a key ally of Pyongyang - may not be easy.

North Korea has already indicated that it may return to multi-party talks on the nuclear issue but has also said it wants direct negotiations with the US first.

In a joint statement issued after their morning summit in Beijing, the leaders said: "We will remain committed to dialogue and consultation and continue to work through peaceful means to pursue the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.

"We will make joint efforts with other parties for an early resumption of the six-party talks, so as to safeguard peace and stability in north-east Asia."

The six-party talks involve the two Koreas, China, the US, Russia and Japan.

The leaders in Beijing also said that they would work closely together to make the upcoming global climate change talks in Denmark a success.

Improved ties

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who recently visited North Korea, said the country appeared to be open to discussions and it was time to "seize the opportunity" to make progress.

"North Korea does not only hope to improve relations with the United States, it also hopes to do so with South Korea and Japan," he said
"This is the deepest impression I got from my visit," he said.

On Monday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il was reported to have told Mr Wen he was "willing to attend multilateral talks, including the six-party talks".

But Mr Kim said doing so was dependent on North Korea first holding bilateral talks with the US, a request Washington has not confirmed it will grant.

The US has said it is willing to engage directly with North Korea, but only as part of a return to the six-party forum. Washington wants the North's complete denuclearisation.

Mr Wen said he supported the idea of direct US-North Korea talks.

But South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak said that while he also welcomed the idea, the "final purpose of any talks between South and North Korea should be denuclearisation of North Korea".

Conditions

On Friday, Mr Lee and Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said sanctions against North Korea should remain in place until it began dismantling its nuclear programme.

But Mr Lee told reporters the countries had agreed on the "need for a fundamental and comprehensive solution" to the nuclear issue.

The two leaders agreed to offer North Korea a one-off package of aid in exchange for denuclearisation, instead of the step-by-step measures that have been followed since the talks began in 2003.

As North Korea's biggest trading partner, China holds the greatest sway over the secretive Pyongyang regime.

The BBC's Michael Bristow in Beijing says South Korea and Japan might find it tough to win China's public support for their latest proposals as Beijing sees North Korea as a close ally.

But there was a sense of optimism following Saturday's meeting, which was a rare chance for the three regional powers to show unity, our correspondent says.

Pyongyang pulled out of the six party talks in April this year and tensions in the region rose after it launched a series of missiles and conducted an underground nuclear test - drawing UN sanctions in response.

The country had previously said it would never re-engage with the multilateral talks.