- Joined
- Mar 7, 2009
- Messages
- 2,038
- Likes
- 303
So you think India will not open another front to ease the tension like it did in 1965?From a realistic point of view,with the geopolitical scenarios in mind a pakistani misadventure of kargil type is possibly a mere mental exercise for the defence analysts.But in 2010,pakistan having access to some highly sophisticated weaponary of western & chinese origin may eventually pave its way to a much more sharp,consolidated & devastating plan. I will try to describe a crude outline of that.
1. Even after 10 years the highest peak of kargil point 5353 is very much under pakistani control.This peak is of extreme importance as due to its topographical superiority even relatively lighter guns of pakistani army can target NH 1D.
2. In spite of achieving this great success, making any real use of this tactical asset will be very difficult for pakistani army as its partially surrounded by the other peaks those may not be as high as 5353 but are very heavily fortified by indian army.Thus any pakistani attempt to strike NH 1D will be met with immediate severe & close in retaliation from indian army.
3. Suppose Keeping the strategic importance of NH 1D in mind pakistani army decides to cement its advantage surrounding 5353. In that case most likely they will consider the following points.
i) In kargil PA suffered huge loss and finally had to give up almost everything they had gained by a masterly planned tactical move was mainly due to IAF's involvement.
ii) Learning from the mistakes made in the past pakistan decides to erect a powerful & dengerous SAM cover atop the 5353.The very hight of 5353 will add a lot of extra punch to the SAM system.
iii) In order to achieve the formidable SAM cover they look at different options as follows
A.US TPS-77 a highly capable 3D , L band , solid state and long range highly jamming proof radar which is highly transportable as well can be dismantled with help of chinese ( if needed ) & taken to the foot of the hill using a C-130s of PAF from where the various parts can be taken to the
top using various means including human & animal portation for lighter parts while heavier parts can be taken by heavily lift helicopter available with PAF under the camouflage of regular supply to the troops at the top of 5353.Once they take the components atop engineers will assemble them under cover may be at night time behind the sheds of the hilly terrain & most importantly keeping the range og TSP 77 in mind its evident that its presence even anywhere near to the theater will have a tremendous positive impact on Pakistani mission.Even if Pakistani army fails to couple this radar with the SAM system at the top of 5353 they can very well use the CCS facilities that is readily available with TSP 77 and data link its command & control computer with the fire control computer of a decent Chinese or European SAM system with the help of Chinese of say around 15 to 20 km range.
B.Having known the facts as described in the open sources http://www.deagel.com/Ground-Sensors/ANTPS-77_a001518001.aspx , Its understandable that at least with an appropriate software up gradation TPS 77 may function as a fire control radar. Its also mentioned in the source that the radars were supplied to pakistan under FMS & looking at the Green pine acquisition by india it is very normal to assume that they may have some sort of fire control components in the pakage.
C.Pakistan an ally of USA in the name of WOT may even try a trade off with america under which pakistani army will promise to crack down heavily on its terror outfits provided USA helps pak to attain some kind of strategic advantage in kashmir which can counter balance any future agression by Indian far superior convensional forces.
D.In case "C" fails to fructify(which is unlikely until US has a huge stake in india & GOI plays some very smart assertive diplomacy) pakistan may well advance with chinese radars such as the onces described in the open source-- http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-IADS-Radars.html and couple them with chinese SAMs.
iv) The dead bodies of pakistani army men within indian coltrolled soil created a lot of fuss and damaged pakistan's internationa reputation to a large extent.Keeping this in mind this time PA may envisage a much more tactically sensible and trategically viable objective of refraining from any physical intrusion within the indin controlled kashmir while dislodging the indian army posts & logistics currently placed at 3/4 peaks surrounding 5353 (and severely crippling the and degrading the strategic value of the peak) thus establishing a firm grip over NH 1D, the strategic life line of IA near the LOC of kashmir.
v) Pakistan will try to bring in the "best" & most leathal equipments to maximize the shock & awe while keeping the theater of battle to the minimum as any escalation will be extremely counter productive for pakistani army.The equipments that they will rely can be listed as follows
A. A - 100 MBRLs -- with an advertised range of 200 km (though not as accurate as indian Pinaka ) may render all the indian artilary ineffective & well out of battle theater except BM 30 smurch.
B. A battery of HQ -9 , which may not be as perfect as S 300 MLU can certainly a death sentance for anything that IAF can field till 2020. It will be safe for pakistani's to assume that any IAF strike formation will try to fly high ( just as it was done my mirage 2000 s in kargil ) & if struck down near to bordar may fall little within the pakistani controlled side which later pakistan may use as a proof to justify IAF aero space violation along the LOC(which they indeed successfully did in kargil).
C. Night Visiion Equipments: In the name of WOT pakistani army certainly have the best night vision equipments in the asia while on the otherside Indian army is very much on the back seat. Open sources --- http://www.indianexpress.com/news/army-told-to-wait-for-madeinindia-night-vi/400322/ & http://www.indianexpress.com/news/army-told-to-wait-for-madeinindia-night-vi/400322/.
D. F 16 blk 52 --- Again provided to pakistan under FMS to fight terrorist hide outs in extremely hostile & creeky region hense ideally suited for launching a strike on the peaks surrounding 5353.Considering the A2G capabilities of F 16 blk 52 it simply out guns everything that India currently posses except some latest versions of SU 30mki.Again keeping the present Indian posture against china in mind these latest sukhies are likely to be placed toward the northan border while IAF is complacent with the superior A2A charachteristics of the SU 30mki family & confident to take down anything that may come within the indian space ( which is again more or less true ).As rightly stated by ..................
E. Biological weapon !!! ---- This may sound like too much of a day dream but then Indian army think tanks did conceive the early intelligence report of intrusion along the LOC as too much fuss for too little.PAkistani army may not use them on Indian army to clear out the peaks in Indian coltroll but they can certainly use them once the peaks are vacated as it will make the place almost inhospitable for a long time to come.Process of disinfection in such hostile region under the heavy firing from pakistani army will a next to impossible goal to achieve for IA.Again due to the very limited & even debetable ( even to know that such BWs have been used Indian army has to climb up the p5eaks) existance of such use it will be very very hard for GOI to choose the option WMD asenunciated in Indian doctrine.
F. Chinese AWACS !!! ---- To perplex Indian intelligence & not to escalate the skirmish, pakistan may simpl abstain from using PAF awacs while a couple of chinese awacs may sneak in from the eastern/north-eastern border which will provide all vital data on Indian positions while PAF awacs will be some thousands of KM away participating in an air show or flying with USAF to locate terrorist camp at the afgan bordar.
vi) Giving chinene an access to gadwar port ---- This way pakistan can ensure uninterrupted supply line & also puts up a tough challange to any plan of Indian navy to go for a naval bloked.
vii)The ultimate success Pakistan in kargil II will depend on how low profile & quickly deescalating the whole mission is.No or very very less untraceble physical entry, a some what decent & recent past of pakistani performance in the WOT,completely out gun & white wash Indian army at those 3/4 vital peaks within shortest time possible time with the maximum concentration of most powerful equipments , a relatively cordial relationship with india to start with ( for example by enforcing an eye wash long term house arrest against masud azhar or with some other symbolic steps to show that they care for India , gradual build up of tension only from 5353 by using light arms while crying foul about indian ulterior motive to surround & trap the sole pakistani existance in the kargil region,& most importantly a masterly diplomatic exploitation of the presence of USA in the af-pak region to restrict India not to escalate the conflict beyond the small area of concern, will be some of the most vital points on which the entire pakistani planning will focus.
ix) cruise missiles --- a barrage of them can be very useful to take out the indian radars placed on top of the peaks around 5353.Being subsonic they are highly controllable to make sharp turns inorder to strike into the creeks & crevices of the hilly terrain.With the help of chinese military satellite & awacs they may be an extremly lethal arm to hit IA very hard.
x) Tunneling & fortification of peak 5353 --- Keeping the possibility of an indian retaliation after the initial shock pakistan will make deep & broad enough tunnels on the crust of the peak where most of the pakistani army can hide along with the equipments thus invalidating any BM 30/brahmos attack.
The weakness of Indian forces that pakistan will keep in mind:
1. Though in almost every sense India is far ahead of pakistan both numerically as well as technically, her assets are distributed over a vast region so pakistan with right mix of weapons & sensors can certinly outgun Indian forces for a short span of time within a small theater of conflict both in terms of number as well as in quality.
2. India currently has only 2 phalcons in her inventory.most likely even the available awacs are not yet connected with the armed forces CCS to the optimal level.So if the mission timming is planned properly with 1 Indian awac participating in an air show then only 1 will be left for any real use and thus severely restricting sortie rates for patrolling.AWACS
3. Indian S 300 mlu's (though there are sceptisism regarding its existance among general public ) if atall there would have placed in major cities as an ABM against M 9/11 type missiles.Looking at the rare chance of a kargil II it might not be too risky for PA to assume that none of the S 300's are located any where near to the kargil.
4. Due to US presence in Af-Pak region & having the low profile non intrusive nature of the kargil II it will not be easy for India to escalate the conflict over a larger area.
5. F 16 blk 52 is superior to every other jet in IAF inventory ( in every sense ) except some of the Su 30mki s.This will seriously affect the maneuverng space of IAF counter strategy.
The possible cronology: [Assuming that all other technical & logistic plans have already been achived by PA on 5353]
1. 15 nov 2011, pakistani army starts withdrawing its forces from karshmir bordar unilaterally & amassing them on the western front.While asking india to reciprocate while puting pressure on US to persuade India.
2. 20 th nov : Pakistani army launches a major offensive unilaterally without even informing US with a clear signal on north waziristan with infantry,tanks, mirage -rose, up graded f 16 a/bs with one of its awacs backing up the mission while passing on all vital information of PA positions to the terrorist heads to minimize their loss & give them a chance to put up a strong defense.
3. 23 rd nov: report comes in the paper that in spite of severe battle PA could'nt manage to achieve anything substantial.With dozens of soldiers injured PA decides to declare a seize fire.US lauds pakistan's genuine en devour & US $ 2 billion package released.
4. 30 th nov: With a stunning disclosure pakistani president reveals that pakistan is seriously considering about signing CTBT unilaterally keeping the present geopolitical & strategic situation in mind. Lectures the world about peace & nuke free world also requests other powers & especially India to follow its foot steps.
5. 1 rst dec: Indian PM welcomes pakistani gesture and promices to seriously consider pakistani concerns.PA cries foul,talks about much power india how signing CTBT will severely affect national security.
6. 5 th dec: Reports came to the media about seze fire violation by pakistani army from 5353 with the use of heavy morters & mechine guns.PA out right denies the report while deviating from the usual path of rhetoric GOP requests India to help pakistan by maintain peace & stability along LOC so that pakistan can step up its offensive along its western border.
7. 7 th dec: More PA troops are removed from the eastern front.India too reciprocates by removing her own troops.
8. 15 th dec: Indian intelligence reports that pakistan is gathering some of her most powerful assets to the LOC region.GOP publicly denies the report while at unofficial level tries to convince IA by by justifying this mobilization as a measure to replace quantity by quality to maintain some credible force level along the LOC.IA takes it with a pinch of salt & begin to move her howitzers & pinakas to the LOC near.US tries to convince India about the serious intention of PA to fight the WOT and reiterates the very high Indian stake in the success of this mission.
9. 22 nd dec: IAF reports that a chinese awac was detected in the POK region, Both PLAF & PAF accepts it and claimed it to be a normal demonstration of the capability of the latest chinese awac that is to be sold to pakistan.India strongly objects this move while PAF justifies this by stating that the awac never crossed the LOC and always functioned within the pakistani controlled territory so India should not have any concern.
10.23 rd dec: In yet another stunning move GOP decided to put ............ under long term house arrest.president of pakistan declairs a last and decisive crusede against the radical forces within the boundery.He also pronounced that there will be no discremination against anyone who ties to distabilize the country or the region.
11.24 rth dec: Extremly happy GOI showers pakistan with all the adjectives available with the oxford dictionary & say that a new stage for indo-pakistan friendship has been set.In the meantime IA intelligence continues to receive AEROSTAT data about some small but suspicious mobilization of pakistani forces along the LOC while GOI asks IA not to take any step that may disturb the increasingly softning stace of pakistan while ask them to stay vigilent.PA forces were found relaxed and at times weaving at Indian counterparts while some plyed cards & chess openly, IA while maintaining its strict vigil on 5353 did get a feel of relaxedness.In the night 2/3 C 130 of PAF launches a mobiliozation move by bring all the striking mechines to the theater of battle ( as close as possible ).
12.25 th dec: 9 am - IA & PA exchange friendly merry christmas greetings. 10 am - PA found decorating 5353,relaxed, while heavy lift helicopters found landing a little too frequently than normal.PA men drank & danced openly.Indian men also began celebration. 12.00 pm --- PA launches biggest ever offensive on north waziristan to shock the enemy while US forces decides to join the mission only from the next day due to the cristmas. 4 pm --- Indian intelligence warns about the detection of some powerful radar near the LOC while negligible human movements were detected on the otherside of LOC.Top brass of Indian army being in coyful mood prefers not to pay much heed to this.Most of them were partying or relaxing in a farm house with family & friends. 6 pm --- Radio officers of IA on the kargil peaks surrounding 5353 reports about a strong & supecious jamming ...Pakistani TSP 77 uses its counter measure equiments to jam Indian radars & radio sets while PA raise the sam batteries to strike worthiness.
7.30 pm --- After all the indian attemps fails to use their counter counter measure equipments stunned AI decides to send human messenger down the hill to contact the base and ask for further guidelines.
8.00 pm --- Pakistani army begins its operation "Al khalid" when 6 ( 4 in action + 2 in reserve or to tacle indian howitzers & pinakas ) A - 100 MBRLs hits 3/4 indian peaks around the 5353 with massive power causing an instant devastation of a large portion of Indian infrastructure at the top while heavy mortars and guns are fired against the near by indian artillary formations to provoke them to fire back at pakistani positions. With the help of fire finding rajendra radars IA tracks down the enemy positions of guns and hits back with accuracy but fails to cause much damage as PA gunnary had little intention to prolong the battle & had movef away from their positions as fast as possible after launching a few rounds of initial shelling.On the otherside pakistani army uses her better FF radars & strikes back with impunity using A 100's keeping IA completely in the state of awe & shock while most of the indian formation located at a relatively flat territory at the foot of the hill suffers insta nt annihilation.Pakistani MBRLs continues relentless firing on the indian peaks while cruise missiles are used to take out indian defences those are placed at a relatively safer location under tranches.
9.30 pm --- Realizing the concentration of highly superior PA striking formation IA commanders orders to vacate the peaks for the time being while wait for the further assistance to arrive in the form of heavy guns , superior radar , IAF , brahmos ,BM 30 etc.
10.00 pm --- 8 f 16 blk 52 zooms in from no where and unleashes dozens on napam bombs on the Indian peaks to take out any life that may still be there.By this time 4 Su 30 mki takes off from an unknow location specifically configured for strike missions, carrying a huge number of bombs & Anti radar missiles for SEAD . While 2/3 Mig 29s accompany them ( upgraded in India ) with mediocre BVR capability.
10.10 pm --- PA decides to launch a bio logical offensive on the peaks & uses the A 100 rockets to dump deadly anthrax capsules [which pakistan procured from the black market] spreading it all over the indian peaks with massive exposion.GOP cries foul, accuses India of an extremly trecherous behavior,GOP also logdes an immidiate protest with the USA about the indian misadventure along the LOC by exploiting the thinning PAkistani defenses along LOC due to WOT, they also threaten US to abort their mission on north wazaristan incase indians dose not behave gentle.
10.20 pm --- After completing the strike role assigned to PAF the 8 F 16s return to their bases on the otherside another 6 F 16 blk 52 s joins the battle those are carrying no bombs but A2A missiles of various types, configured optimally for interception role.2 awacs also emarge in the picture from the north eastern bordar, while one of them is of chinese origin other one is the pakistani SAAB version that was supposed to be participating in chinese air show.[Eriyen being a pakistani awac we can safely assume that its already been data linked with the latest F 16s or the process is moving].
10.30 pm --- Tearing the sky 4 Su 30mki s storm into the battle field. BARS radars start seraching at its highest enery level & soon detects enemy F 16s at around 125 km away.Wasting no time indian jets launches AA 12s at three f 16s.Enemy F 16s, specially weaponised for A2A missions with lighter weapons exhibites excellent agility and evades AA 12 but they as soon as F 16s line up they found a few R 27s approaching them. F 16s quickly activate their Infrared counter measures but it was too late as 2 F 16s get reaped open by the indian missile.While IAF & PAF exhibits their BVR skills in the sky the commandar of the HQ 9 keeps his eyes glued to the radar screen & eagerly waits for the signatures of indian jets to become sharp.In the meantime Indian jets move along and comes nearer to the spot.remaining 4 Pak F 16s show no hurry and decides to execute high G missile evasive manuevers like loops & breaks while making no further advances toward the indian jets.
10.35 pm --- sudden excitement observed among the men operating HQ -9 , Sharp radar signatures of indian jets are clearly visible on the screen.SAM is activated.In the air the gap between the adversory jets gows down to 60 odd kms with Su 30mki activating its IRSTs to engage the enemy while being unaware of itself being targated.
10.36 pm --- with loud sound & smoke 4 HQ - 9s launched with enemy Su 30mki s within 70/80 km striking distance. Carry a lot of heavy bombs Su 30mki s find its feet heavy. A throttling TVC roars as the last ditch attemp to evade the SAM but it was too late 2 of the Sukhois are eliminated while F 16s launch a concentrated attack on much inferior older Mig 29s with a few of them blown out of the sky.
10.38 pm --- Finding itself in a deadly and unprepared for the situation IAF formation decides to call off the mission and turns back towards its base.But F 16s remains assertive and decides to haunt.By this time the second salvo of HQ 9 roars up towards the sky taking down the all the remaining migs while less agile heavily loaded Sukhois prefers to use its shaff & flair.Having done all the home work perfectly F 16, launches 3 semi guided short range A2A missiles soon after HQ 9 is fired.While Sukhois were busy evading HQ 9 the A2A missiles approached almost imperceptibly.By this time su 30mki pilots decides to eject the bomb loads to improve agility but it was too late for the one Su which was trailing and the jet bursts into flame as SA hits one of it's wings while the other sukhoi having disposed off some of the bombs gained better maneuverability and along with an active TVC somehow manages to evade the SAM.
10.40 pm --- PAkistani media bells the siren & attacks indians for launching a massively coordinated & calibrated attack comprised of howitzers,pinaka,most powerful indian jets & M 2000s on relatively weak and symbolic pakistani presence at 5353.GOP calls for a urgent meeting for with PA,threaten India of dire consiquences , orders her nuke asstes to put on high allerts,
11.00 pm --- GOI completely taken aback.After pakistani attack crushed most of the indian communication systems in the limited region no or only very little information available with the decision mechanism of India.Even refutation of Pakistani claims seems difficult for GOI while some of the pakistani media already being well prepared for the situation starts showing clipings of indian offensive on pakistani posts inviting world wide condemnation.
11.30 pm --- Pakistani army calls off its offensive in the western front.Accuses USA of playing dicy by allowing India to attack pakistan while on the other hand forcing pak army to engage the eastern front by thinning its defences along the LOC.Washington calls up PM office & expresses its greave concern over the prevailing situation.Also warns India than any escalating move by India shall have a very bad impact on the Indo-Us ties.
12.00 Am --- Indian armed forces top brasses having been humiliated & awe struck plans a massive and decisive attack on pakistani post 5353.MB 30s and brahmos are picked as the tooth of the attack while 1 full squandron of Latest Su 30mkis in various configuration are prepared for action.While Indians begin to buld up, pakistani army very smartly start rapidly transport as much critical assets as possible away from the theater & thus erasing indirect proofs of any pakistani preemptive strike,PA also shuts down all the powerful radars in the region.When Indian army is preparing for the offensive GoI talks to the officers in army head quarter.Army informs about the lack of information from the battle field while also confirms a massive pakistani attack on a very few indian controlled peaks in kargil.GOI strictly instructs army not to escalate the situation without having sufficient information about the larger picture.
1.00 am --- In order to gather best possible battle field data IAF calls phalcons into the action.
2.30 pm --- Indian CCS reports very little pakistani presence in the area.Chinese shares their satellite based information with US about the massive Indian build up in the region.Extremely outraged US puts immense pressure on GOI to immediately deescalate the situation.China warns India of an intervention.
3.00 pm --- Under extreme international pressure GOI decides to stop IAF from taking any aggressive posture anytime soon.While asks IA/IAF to be extremely vigilant.Tightly escorted phalcons keep zooming in the region but fails to detect anything substantial.
26th dec --- a surveillance team of IAF reaches the spot to witness the devastation caused by Pakistani forces.Debris of F 16s and some of the Indian Jets detected.Indian GOI shouts loudly about the aerospace violation by PAF of 25th dec while also feels very relaxed that no loss of land was detected.While Pakistani Army claims similar foul play by Indians.Understanding the risk of antagonizing Indians too much may be counter productive USA warns Pakistan against any misadventure.
27/28/29 th dec --- Blame game continued by either side, Pakistan shows the immaculate condition of NH 1D as the prime proof of no ulterior motive from Pakistani side.
5 th jan 2012 --- A strategic delegation from US lands india to discuss the situation. After many cups of coffee & lots of calorie being consumed both sides agrees upon the fact it was merely a inconsequential skirmish and dose not have any effect on the geo-strategic foot hold of the either side while some poor army men kept grumbling on this.
10 th january --- Indian jarmy comes under heavy firing from PA post at 5353 peak while they attempted to regain their posts.
14th 16th 17 th --- Indian infantry desperately attemps to regain control over the lost peaks,suffers heavy casualty, 2 MI 17 gun ships shot down by SAMs fired from 5353.
20 january --- After continued humiliation in the hand of pak army & Being unable to escalate the conflict under international pressure , IA suddenly becomes confident of their superiority in the region & decides to Holt any further advances to the peaks while vows to keep extreme vigilance on the enemy movements.
3 rd march --- A breaking news comes in to Indian media, Some of the survivor of IA in the 25th dec night died of a strange disease.IA accuses pakistan of using Biological weapons.Pakistan loughs off at Indian claims calling it a badly staged drama.
25 th dec 2012 --- president of Pakistan Mr.ABC meets Indian PM XYZ at a PRQ venue where India raises her concern about the peaks in kargil & consistent Pakistani shelling through out the year which prevented Indian Army from regaining their positions.Very humble and friendly pakistani president listnes to Indian concern & promices to take up the issue with the PA.....................Story continues for another 10 years....
India will not use its navy to block off the whole of Pakistan?
India will not use its MBRL systems, cruise missiles and Diplomatic clout to further Isolate Pakistan?
You also assume that India will not cut off the KKH highway in POK?
Kargil II if declared will be a full fledged war...we did not cross the LOC in 1999 by our choice...not because we were scared.
