Britain no longer a naval power, fleet strength depleted

balai_c

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How about the long range Sukhoi's supported by Mid air refuels, An-32's for dropping Para troopers?
To defend against RN we need just one thing: Brahmos, showers and showers of Brahmos. RN was practically made to piss in its pants by puny subsonic Exocet, just imagine what a force multiplier a supersonic cruise missile can do! There is at present no line of defense against a hailstorm of Brahmos. This, added with squadrons of Su-30 can life hell for the British expeditionary fleet. And by the way, by 2016, INS Vikramaditya will be fully operational, along with atleast 2 arihant SSBN s. So, it would be really impossible without US or NATO backup.
 
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civfanatic

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As Britain grows weaker they will fall increasingly under the sway of the U.S., even more than they do now.

The U.S. has a long-term strategic interest in Diego Garcia and the Indian Ocean. The chances of them abandoning it willingly are slim.
 

balai_c

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^^ Yeah, that's really the scenario. America and Britain have a very emotional and transactional relationship. It's far more deep than we can see. England is regarded by the Yanks as the "old country", the mother civilization, kind o the way Aussies and kiwis feel about GB. So, Uncle sam's protection will increase even more.
 

LalTopi

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^^ Yeah, that's really the scenario. America and Britain have a very emotional and transactional relationship. It's far more deep than we can see. England is regarded by the Yanks as the "old country", the mother civilization, kind o the way Aussies and kiwis feel about GB. So, Uncle sam's protection will increase even more.
That was the case in the past, but the demographic makeup of the US has changed dramatically over the decades.

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rc...wZ2vDA&usg=AFQjCNE9gjcrsnSkNu2i2KwC_iqVqvz-pQ

There are more non white babies born each year in the US than white. Plus there is a huge Hispanic population. One of the reasons Obama got elected, and likely to get reflected. Incidentally Obama may still be a factor in this scenario in 2016.
 

Payeng

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If RAF has a squadron of Typhoons guarding the island, would a handful of Flankers be enough? You have to get through that before you start dropping paras.
What about sustainability (fuel/ ammo) to maintain continuous CAP till reinforcement arrives from mainland? What about if replenishment get intercepted by IN?

Scenario : 1-to-1 non nuclear contest.

One thing to the advantage of India is reinforcement upon the island will be faster then that compared to Britain, Britain will need to sail all way till the island while India can use air transport, even through water India will require less time and effort to reach DG comparatively.

India should have the speed and distance advantage.
 

LalTopi

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To defend against RN we need just one thing: Brahmos, showers and showers of Brahmos. RN was practically made to piss in its pants by puny subsonic Exocet, just imagine what a force multiplier a supersonic cruise missile can do! There is at present no line of defense against a hailstorm of Brahmos. This, added with squadrons of Su-30 can life hell for the British expeditionary fleet. And by the way, by 2016, INS Vikramaditya will be fully operational, along with atleast 2 arihant SSBN s. So, it would be really impossible without US or NATO backup.
Also maybe Vikrant IAC in the 2016/17 timeframe.
Therefore can India launch a carrier attack on the island? Especially as RN has no Aircraft Carriers in that timeframe.
 

balai_c

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Good find LB, folks, we had a good discussion on a potential invasion of andaman island by PLAN that eventually got reduced to a flight of fantasy between the french navy and IN. Read it people, its good fun , and provides valuable perspective on the scenario proposed by LalTopi. We also need to remember something, this is not the colonial era. European navies cannot just conquer any country at will, it's a different world right now.
 

Armand2REP

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What about sustainability (fuel/ ammo) to maintain continuous CAP till reinforcement arrives from mainland? What about if replenishment get intercepted by IN?
Would IAF be able to break the air bridge supplying the island? You can put up some AWACs in the vicinity but you become a target for Typhoons that might be hunting for you. That would make an interesting air battle. If they have a Type 45 in the area then it changes everything from both air and missile attack. Someone mentioned Brahmos, but Asters hit Coyote target drones which are basically the same thing.

Scenario : 1-to-1 non nuclear contest.

One thing to the advantage of India is reinforcement upon the island will be faster then that compared to Britain, Britain will need to sail all way till the island while India can use air transport, even through water India will require less time and effort to reach DG comparatively.

India should have the speed and distance advantage.
You certainly have the distance advantage for naval ops, but air ops are so fast in the scheme of things it really depends on how fast UK can reinforce the island and set up an air bridge. An SSN will either be or soon be in the area with more to follow. I don't think IN is really equipped to deal with that. It is kind of the same fear Argentina has trying to land troops on the Falklands with a patrol sub usually in the area.
 

LalTopi

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Would IAF be able to break the air bridge supplying the island? You can put up some AWACs in the vicinity but you become a target for Typhoons that might be hunting for you. That would make an interesting air battle. If they have a Type 45 in the area then it changes everything from both air and missile attack. Someone mentioned Brahmos, but Asters hit Coyote target drones which are basically the same thing.
An airbridge, but from where? From Britain itself is too far surely, without beeing prone to attack.


You certainly have the distance advantage for naval ops, but air ops are so fast in the scheme of things it really depends on how fast UK can reinforce the island and set up an air bridge. An SSN will either be or soon be in the area with more to follow. I don't think IN is really equipped to deal with that. It is kind of the same fear Argentina has trying to land troops on the Falklands with a patrol sub usually in the area.
This is what I am trying to find the answer to. In the 2016/17 scenario when Britain is heavily dependent on the few Astute and remaining Trafalgar classe SSNs plus type 45s, will India ASW be sufficient. I am talking P8 Posiedons, Vikramaditya plus IAC, plus Kolkata and Shivalik class.
 

balai_c

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For anti submarine operations, we have kamorta class corvettes. Besides, every ship of Indian navy also has a respectable ASW capabilities of its own. And Armand dear how the hell can Britain place squadrons of Euro-fighters, when these aircrafts are not carrier capable? They do not have the endurance of MKI and run the risk of being shot down by IAF or IN fighters doing air defense patrols in the IOR region. IN 2016, India's GDP will surely exceed UK's , so money for funding defense equipments wont be a problem.

Even before we ponder upon how England is going to get there, there is one thing we are neglecting. IN ships will surely patrol the IOR region. That coupled by Indian reconnaissance satellite in LEO orbits will surely spot them some distance away, and Indian C4ISR is second to none. So, the GW1 type scenario can be effectively ruled out. Indian Navy will indeed have an upper hand in its backyard.
 
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Armand2REP

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An airbridge, but from where? From Britain itself is too far surely, without beeing prone to attack.
They would fly out of Cyprus to some friendly Arab base, either that or beg for a French base. It would give them leeway to approach further away from IAF bases.


This is what I am trying to find the answer to. In the 2016/17 scenario when Britain is heavily dependent on the few Astute and remaining Trafalgar classe SSNs plus type 45s, will India ASW be sufficient. I am talking P8 Posiedons, Vikramaditya plus IAC, plus Kolkata and Shivalik class.
The Astute class is at the same level of Virginia and Barracuda accoustic signatures. IN would need a serious ASW upgrade to track them. P8s all depend on the quality of their sonobuoys, and that is a crap shoot hoping one crosses right underneath it. Their range is nothing compared to a mounted sonar and against quiet targets like an Astute... nah. Trafalgar maybe. They would need to make a mistake or a malfunction of something to give them away. Using Russian sonars... forget about it. India needs to go shopping at Thales Underwater Systems.
 

LalTopi

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They would fly out of Cyprus to some friendly Arab base, either that or beg for a French base. It would give them leeway to approach further away from IAF bases..
This is of course the big ----- in the armour. It would take a lot for one of the Arab states to side against India thee days. India is the biggest trading partner to some of these Gulf states. Not sure about French bases - Reunion island? Dont forget Mauritius on the side of the DG islanders.


The Astute class is at the same level of Virginia and Barracuda accoustic signatures. IN would need a serious ASW upgrade to track them. P8s all depend on the quality of their sonobuoys, and that is a crap shoot hoping one crosses right underneath it. Their range is nothing compared to a mounted sonar and against quiet targets like an Astute... nah. Trafalgar maybe. They would need to make a mistake or a malfunction of something to give them away. Using Russian sonars... forget about it. India needs to go shopping at Thales Underwater Systems.
This is the crux of the matter for which I am not that knowledagble and have no desire to bullshit. Therefore and I shall have to defer to the other DFI members on this.
 

Armand2REP

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This is of course the big ----- in the armour. It would take a lot for one of the Arab states to side against India thee days. India is the biggest trading partner to some of these Gulf states. Not sure about French bases - Reunion island? Dont forget Mauritius on the side of the DG islanders.
Saudis would do it for a bribe. They would only be using it as a fuel stop, not actual basing. They could use Djibouti, Reunion or Mayotte. They all have airbases on them. I doubt UAE would let them base with us at our base in Abu Dhabi. Trade relations are too close with India.
 

LalTopi

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Saudis would do it for a bribe. They would only be using it as a fuel stop, not actual basing. They could use Djibouti, Reunion or Mayotte. They all have airbases on them. I doubt UAE would let them base with us at our base in Abu Dhabi. Trade relations are too close with India.
So India could base its carriers off the coast of Somalia near the gulf of Aden, and pick off anything suspect flying across.
Fuel supply links to the type 45s could also be attacked. Effectively blockade the island. Which leaves the question of the Astutes.
 

Armand2REP

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So India could base its carriers off the coast of Somalia near the gulf of Aden, and pick off anything suspect flying across.
Fuel supply links to the type 45s could also be attacked. Effectively blockade the island. Which leaves the question of the Astutes.
If you are talking about 2016/17 I suppose you could. Only one carrier will likely be available out of the two. There won't be AWACs planes on your carrier without cats and traps. It would be far better served to position it off Diego to provide air-cover for the invasion. Patrolling an area as big as the Western IOR isn't even possible for the Atalanta mission for pirates. You will always be a target for SSNs no matter where you go. I would use your SSKs to patrol for UK convoys.
 

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Armand, you missed the Indian carriers part. Timeline 2016-17, india will have one INS Vikramaditya and possibly the Indian carrier.
 

Armand2REP

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Scorpenes, Kilos.... whatever is operational in the time frame.

That is why I said one of the two carriers. If both are operational, only one will likely be ready.
 

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