Attack on Pak Army GHQ - Implications for Pakistan's Nuclear Security

[qsaark]

At all times, I imagine India and Pakistan having ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads in launch facilities, on standby, so there could be a quick second-strike. In case such a launch-facility is compromised, I don't think it's particularly time-consuming for the terrorists to use it..unless ofcourse, the launch machinery has electronic security which is held by the country's nuclear command.

Tarun, I have always admired your posts for they reflect your knowledge and conviction. But in this case, you appear to drift along with emotions.

Their exists a complex launch sequence that requires authentication at multiple levels. Even if someone goes nuts and wants to launch a nuclear-tip missile, he simply can not. It is not like pressing a trigger and there you go. First of all, the president or the commander in-chief has to authenticate the launch that is transmitted down the chain of command via encrypted codes. After several such authentications, does the commander of the silo or the launching vehicle can go ahead and initiate the launching sequence and that sequence can also be remotely aborted anytime at multiple levels. Even if the missile is launched, it can be re-directed and/or simply destroyed midair.

Second strike does not mean launching within seconds to minutes. It is for this reason that the silos or launchers are spreaded out. It is also for the same reason that multiple launching platforms are made available to launch a second strike.

 

[dineshchaturvedi]

The most serious implecation I feel is Pakistan blaming it on India. I think they will use this to Push USA to get India's consulate's inafganistan closed. I do not think Taliban or any terrorist can get hold of nuclear weapon.

 

[Daredevil]

The most serious implecation I feel is Pakistan blaming it on India. I think they will use this to Push USA to get India's consulate's inafganistan closed. I do not think Taliban or any terrorist can get hold of nuclear weapon.

It is already clear that this attack was perpetrated by Taliban as they have already claimed. And these recent spate of attacks in Pakistan by Pakistani Taliban is because of two reasons, one, is to avenge the killing of Baitullah Mehsud and the other in anticipation of upcoming offense by Pakistani Army in south waziristan where the Pakistani Taliban reside.

So, in this context, it is very unlikely that Pakistan blame India for these attacks.

 

[Vinod2070]

You're happy about our men getting killed? That's really sad dude. Whenever there's a casualty in India, or a fighter jet crashes taking the pilot's life, we pray for your soldiers who die in the line of duty. It's not a secret just check out some online forums and you would know.

Really, I'm disappointed.

I don't think he expressed happpiness bt there will always be some people who have different take on such issues.

Lets move on. We regret the loss of life of any soldiers in the line of duty.

 

[Vladimir79]

A person with even limited knowledge about the professional militaries and nuclear weapons would know it’s not that simple.

First the ‘terrorists’ have to locate where the warheads are located.

ISI is infultrated by the Taliban.

Than they have to overcome all the security barriers to reach to them (in the present case which is given as an example, the terrorists couldn’t even reach in the GHQ lawns let alone in the compound and forget about inside of the building itself)

Never made it on HQ lawns? They took over the SECURITY building and are holding hostages. Nuclear warheads are not stored at Army HQ in the most secure compound in Pakistan but in a facility with even less guards and response time.

Than they have to secure the weapons/material and try to escape (as if after overcoming all the security on their way in, the security will spread a red carpet on their way out)

With a little ISI intelligence, it is not unrealistic they could.

After escaping successfully, they have to find a way bring it to India or wherever (as if all the intelligence assets on the ground and in the air/space (local and international) would remain unaware of the movement of highly radioactive material across the country.

What intelligence assets? You mean the ones who support the Taliban?

If they managed to enter in their target country then they have to find a way to detonate the weapons (now you will suggest that they also have degree in the nuclear physics).

Making a dirty bomb is not hard. With all the drug profits they are running from Afghanistan they can probably hire a Pak nuke scientist to help them out. AQ Khan is still alive. He did it before...

 

[qsaark]

ISI is infiltrated by the Taliban.

Evidence?

Never made it on HQ lawns? They took over the SECURITY building and are holding hostages. Nuclear warheads are not stored at Army HQ in the most secure compound in Pakistan but in a facility with even less guards and response time.

Located outside the perimeter not within.

With a little ISI intelligence, it is not unrealistic they could.

Evidence?

What intelligence assets? You mean the ones who support the Taliban?

No need for sarcasm. Assets of CIA, RAW, MI-5 in Pakistan and in the rest of the world. The spy satellites that can pickup radiation.

Making a dirty bomb is not hard. With all the drug profits they are running from Afghanistan they can probably hire a Pak nuke scientist to help them out. AQ Khan is still alive. He did it before...

Dirty bomb is not made using greater than 75% enriched Uranium which the terrorists are most likely to find in the warheads. It would be much safer and quicker to go to a junkyard, buy few thousand old fire/smoke alarms and have material to make a dirty bomb. To make a dirty bomb, they really don’t need to infiltrate Pakistan’s nuclear facilities.

Besides, for all that you must look more carefully in your own backyard where unemployed scientists plus the nuclear material was more readily available after the collapse of the Soviet Union and still is.

 

[Vladimir79]

Evidence?

Parts of ISI supporting Taliban, says report - Worldnews.com

Located outside the perimeter not within.

They are inside the main gates as we speak.

Evidence?

Speculation... the same as your confidence in nuklear security, of which we know ZERO about.

No need for sarcasm. Assets of CIA, RAW, MI-5 in Pakistan and in the rest of the world. The spy satellites that can pickup radiation.

Evidence?

Dirty bomb is not made using greater than 75% enriched Uranium which the terrorists are most likely to find in the warheads. It would be much safer and quicker to go to a junkyard, buy few thousand old fire/smoke alarms and have material to make a dirty bomb. To make a dirty bomb, they really don’t need to infiltrate Pakistan’s nuclear facilities.

Officials tell TIME it's extremely unlikely that enough americium could be harvested from smoke detectors to create a device potent enough to inflict radiation sickness, let alone kill people

London's Dirty-Bomb Plot - TIME

Sounds like a futile effort to me... headed for the nuke facilities.

Besides, for all that you must look more carefully in your own backyard where unemployed scientists plus the nuclear material was more readily available after the collapse of the Soviet Union and still is.

Our nuklear scientists have plenty of work...

In a sweeping revival of Russia's nuclear industry, President Vladimir Putin has signed off on the construction of 26 major new nuclear stations, which will almost double the share of atomic power in Russia's electrical grid. In addition, the country's main atomic agency says it hopes to export as many as 60 nuclear power plants in the next two decades.

Russia plans big nuclear expansion | csmonitor.com

Fissile material is repossessed and sold to countries for nuklear fuel. Russia is fully subject and complies with all CTR regulations as overseen by the US. I don't see Pakistan complying with any such programme.

 

[qsaark]

Parts of ISI supporting Taliban, says report - Worldnews.com

Can you present this as evidence in a court of law?

They are inside the main gates as we speak.

They threw hand grenades and started firing when they were stopped at the Checkpost-1 and asked to show their ID cards. This clearly shows that the security guards present at the checkpost-1 did their job as they were required to do and did not let the terrorists in. At the main gate and than into the nearby compound (still outside the main building) does not mean they were inside the GHQ.

Speculation... the same as your confidence in nuklear security, of which we know ZERO about.

Lets not waste time on speculations.

Evidence?

There are no foreign spy assets in Pakistan? This is interesting news. And there are no other assets that can monitor the transportation of nuclear material across the globe? This is even more interesting a news.

Sounds like a futile effort to me... headed for the nuke facilities.

Than the most likely target would be the unsecured or undersecured Russian facilities as mentioned in "Nuclear Terrorism" by Richard Baker (start reading from page 34)

Our nuklear scientists have plenty of work...

Indeed, that is why USA/EU had to allocate millions of dollars to 'buy' the services of Russian Scientists.

Fissile material is repossessed and sold to countries for nuklear fuel. Russia is fully subject and complies with all CTR regulations as overseen by the US. I don't see Pakistan complying with any such programme.

We are not signatory to any international treaties.

 

[Costanza]

Operation's been a success. SSG once again has proven its worth, they completed the operation within 45 mins. The operation started at 6 a.m. and was completed within 45 mins. 25 hostages have been rescued, three martyred, and all terrorists sent to hell including one who was packing a suicide vest.

SSG has achieve a great victory in record time!

Go Pakistan army go!

 

[qsaark]

Pictures pf four of the terrorists as released by the ISPR. http://www.ispr.gov.pk/front/main.asp?o=t-press_release&latest=1
Khas kum jehan paak.

 

[Sabir]

Apparently it is extremely difficult for the terrorists to find out and reach up to the place where the warheads are kept. And even if the get these things in hand they would not be able to fix them for use. But the capability of the terrorists group can not be underestimated; they have proved it so many times. It is said the terrorist organization like Al- Qaida operate like MNCs and how efficiently they can execute a plan we all know that. May be when we all are concerned about security of Pak nukes , they are making their home work to get it from somewhere else where security are less worried about such attack. Personally I believe, if terrorists want to black-mail the world or cause havoc in declared enemy country, they will prefer to get their hand on chemical or biological weapons. And that is not necessary by attacking the depot in filmy style. Pilfering such things by placing their men wherever required through a long drawn plan is not impossible. Getting experts to help in using chemical or bio-weapons is (at least in my opinion) less difficult than getting nuclear scientists and technicians to assemble nuclear war heads to use. Any way it is not unbelievable that terrorists might have their men or supporters in Pak organization. So they have to be alert that no way in any hostile situation these agents can act as the catalyst to start a nuclear holocaust.

 

[Vladimir79]

Can you present this as evidence in a court of law?

Why would I have to? This is an internet forum.

They threw hand grenades and started firing when they were stopped at the Checkpost-1 and asked to show their ID cards. This clearly shows that the security guards present at the checkpost-1 did their job as they were required to do and did not let the terrorists in. At the main gate and than into the nearby compound (still outside the main building) does not mean they were inside the GHQ.

If they are in control of the security building "inside" the main gates, then they are INSIDE the compound. Just read the AP headline...

RAWALPINDI, Pakistan — Heavily armed militants were holding up to 15 soldiers hostage inside Pakistan's army headquarters Saturday after they stormed the complex in an audacious assault on the heart of the nuclear-armed country's most powerful institution.

Lets not waste time on speculations.

Considering what happened today, it is a very real situation.

There are no foreign spy assets in Pakistan? This is interesting news. And there are no other assets that can monitor the transportation of nuclear material across the globe? This is even more interesting a news.

Evidence that spy satellites can track radioactive material.

Than the most likely target would be the unsecured or undersecured Russian facilities as mentioned in "Nuclear Terrorism" by Richard Baker (start reading from page 34)

Since when is Russia the issue? Pakistan is the one with rebels storming the HQ and enforcing Sharia law in parts of the country you cannot control.

Indeed, that is why USA/EU had to allocate millions of dollars to 'buy' the services of Russian Scientists.

Don't know what you are implying...

We are not signatory to any international treaties.

That is another reason why you are dangerous to non-proliferation. You have already given DPRK the bomb and helped who knows how many other programmes. Pakistan's irresponsibility with nuklear technology has endangered millions of lives.

 

[Quickgun Murugan]

Nice job by Pakistani SSG. Must have shown exceptional bravery to pin down those cowards.:goodstuff:

 

[Vladimir79]

Operation's been a success. SSG once again has proven its worth, they completed the operation within 45 mins. The operation started at 6 a.m. and was completed within 45 mins. 25 hostages have been rescued, three martyred, and all terrorists sent to hell including one who was packing a suicide vest.

SSG has achieve a great victory in record time!

Go Pakistan army go!

Glad to hear it but the action was a strategic failure. They wanted to take some of the rebels alive to interrogate them. SSG failed the secondary mission.

 

[Tamil]

dirty game

Just to give you guys an update to avoid disinformation, the terrorists are nowhere NEAR the GHQ's main building. They only attacked the outer most check post which is visible from the main road. The hostages that the remaining (Two) terrorists are holding are not INSIDE GHQ but in a small security compound located right next to the First check post.

4 terrorists have been killed by the army, 2 have been captured and two are using some hostages as human shield to protect their coward asses.

ISPR has released images of the killed terrorist. Just go to their website and check it out.

watch the 4 photograph its about 2 persons only not four persons. but killed was about 4 is true, but the pictures shows only 2 mate.

I think its work of ISI as they r begging for millitary equipment from America and has not received it. By doing this they can presssurise American to release attack choppers, f-16, night vision many more, old dirty game of politics. Above all, I salute to those soldier do died to defend there motherlland. A soldier is a solider wheather Indian or Pakistani.

i believe in this


i too :icon_salut:

 

[qsaark]

Why would I have to? This is an internet forum.

Than do not present internet links as evidence. They are news, views, and speculations and should be presented as such.

If they are in control of the security building "inside" the main gates, then they are INSIDE the compound. Just read the AP headline...

RAWALPINDI, Pakistan — Heavily armed militants were holding up to 15 soldiers hostage inside Pakistan's army headquarters Saturday after they stormed the complex in an audacious assault on the heart of the nuclear-armed country's most powerful institution.

If this is your understanding of the GHQ, than fine. I am not going to elaborate more on the building structure and security measures of the PA's GHQ.

Considering what happened today, it is a very real situation.

Time will tell.

Evidence that spy satellites can track radioactive material.

Externally mounted high resolution scintillation detectors (HRSD) on the aircrafts, helicopters, and balloons have been used since mid 1980s and more recently on the UAVs. I remember reading the proceedings of the Royal Society in 2008 where they talked about these airborne scintillation detectors and how research is being carried out to increase their resolution and sensitivity. Since the ionizing radiation does not penetrate the atmosphere (except Cerenkov radiation or fluorescence generated in the vicinity of sources), such detectors can not be mounted on the satellites. However, UAVa equipped with the HRSD can be linked with the satellite to establish a detection network. This work was presented in 2008, and I have no doubt in my mind that at least in the USA, this system is already working.

Since when is Russia the issue? Pakistan is the one with rebels storming the HQ and enforcing Sharia law in parts of the country you cannot control.

Because expertise and material is more readily available in Russia than it is in Pakistan. If someone has to shop the material for dirty bomb, he will go to Russia. That is why I gave the reference of a book written on this subject.

There was problem in Sawat that has already been taken care of. There is no Talibani-style sharia in any other part of Pakistan minus tribal areas which have never been under the control of the GoP. However, positive developments are being made on that front too.

Don't know what you are implying...

That the USA/EU is spending millions of dollars so that the jobless nuclear Scientist don’t fall in the hands of the so called 'rogue nations' and the unsecured enriched nuclear material does not find its way outside Russia.

That is another reason why you are dangerous to non-proliferation. You have already given DPRK the bomb and helped who knows how many other programmes. Pakistan's irresponsibility with nuklear technology has endangered millions of lives.

In that case Pakistan is not alone. Each and every country that possessed the nuclear technology before 1960s has been involved in proliferation at one point or another including Russia.

 

[musalman]

As per ISPR one terrorist has been captured

 

[dineshchaturvedi]

As per ISPR one terrorist has been captured

I hope Pakistan does the investigation and blames the right people. So far many people in Pakistan has blaming everyone they can think of. We people of south east Asia are more emmotinal and does not talk on facts. The media and politicians have been irresponsible from both sides. I want to see better relations with Pakistan. We need to mature like west. This is why we are not progressing.

 

[mattster]

If I were an Indian or US military planner; I think that at some point you have to consider that fact that one of these militant groups may get their hands on a fully assembled nuke or the diss-assembled pieces.

This is the nightmare scenario.

It seems like these militants have inside contacts at every level in Pakistan. There does not seem to be anything that they cant infiltrate. Its not like these guys are so incredibly well-trained professional guys....they must have "inside help".

How long is it before they get "inside help" to procure a couple of nukes ??

I just dont buy the idea that you can penetrate the Pak GHQ with some phony army uniforms.

 

[dineshchaturvedi]

Why can't we shutdown all illegal arms manufacturing units. I have heard that there are pleanty of places where you can buy Ak47.