'As China greys, India set to become world's growth engine'

[LETHALFORCE]

Badguy the Chinese growth is nothing more than an infrastructure buildout, once completed where will the real growth come from?? Especially when China has to compete and your labor is no longer cheap??

 

[civfanatic]

who tells you such a crappy data? CNN , BBC or rediff?

Once , I thought CCP propaganda department and its throats such as CCTV were the most foolish a$$holes in the world.

but now, I find that west medias such as the data-fabricator are as foolish and crappy as CCP propaganda department and CCTV..?

it seems that west medias have be infected with the stupidity of CCP propaganda department .

Never mind, the percentage of slum dwellers is about 28% in both India and China.
http://www.unhabitat.org/documents/SOWC10/R2.pdf

Sorry, but UN Habitat has a lot more credibility than CCTV.

 

[badguy2000]

Badguy the Chinese growth is nothing more than an infrastructure buildout, once completed where will the real growth come from?? Especially when China has to compete and your labor is no longer cheap??

when all necessary infrastructure are completed in China, China will have been a economy as fully industrialized as USA already... at that time , China needs not a 8% growth at all.

pinning India's hope on possible recession of China is just a indication that India lacks of confidence of catching up with CHina .

 

[Daredevil]

when all necessary infrastructure are completed in China, China will have been a economy as fully industrialized as USA... at that time , China needs not a 8% growth at all.

It might be true that China is as industrialized as US but the standard of living of the people in no where near that of a common American may be except in few cities like Shanghai, Beijing etc. China's future growth will be majorly dependent on innovation and domestic consumption in addition to the current export-oriented industries.

 

[badguy2000]

It might be true that China is as industrialized as US but the standard of living of the people in no where near that of a common American may be except in few cities like Shanghai, Beijing etc. China's future growth will be majorly dependent on innovation and domestic consumption in addition to the current export-oriented industries.

well,

in 2 decades at most, the average life quality of mainland CHinese will be as high as that of Japanese and Taiwanese.

 

[p2prada]

well,

in 2 decades at most, the average life quality of mainland CHinese will be as high as that of Japanese and Taiwanese.

Sorry I doubt that, even for India.

Both our countries will need 10% growth for the next 50 years if we are to compare to Japan or Taiwan. Our per capita is like beggar's alms compared to the powerhouses as of now.

Only a part of the city dwellers in our countries will be able to enjoy the per capita like that of Japan or even the US. 2 decades is too small for comparison. Even after 40 years of growth the American per capita will be twice that of China's and India's.

We will take 40 years just to urbanize 90% of our population.

 

[badguy2000]

Sorry I doubt that, even for India.

Both our countries will need 10% growth for the next 50 years if we are to compare to Japan or Taiwan. Our per capita is like beggar's alms compared to the powerhouses as of now.

Only a part of the city dwellers in our countries will be able to enjoy the per capita like that of Japan or even the US. 2 decades is too small for comparison. Even after 40 years of growth the American per capita will be twice that of China's and India's.

We will take 40 years just to urbanize 90% of our population.

guy, pls don't keep your eyes blind to the reality.

the per capital nomnal GDP of PRC in 2010 should be about 4000-4500 USD.

in 5 years, the per capital nominal GDP of PRC can be 10K USD .

however, the per capital nominal GDP of rich costal Chinese provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang can be 20K USD and as much as that of Taiwan's.

In 2020, the per capital nominal GDP of PRC can be 15K-20K USD. Its rich coastal provinces can have a per capital nominal GDP of 30K USD.

 

[p2prada]

guy, pls don't keep your eyes blind to the reality.

the per capital nomnal GDP of PRC in 2010 should be about 4000-4500 USD.

in 5 years, the per capital nominal GDP of PRC can be 10K USD .

however, the per capital nominal GDP of rich costal Chinese provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang can be 20K USD and as much as that of Taiwan's.

In 2020, the per capital nominal GDP of PRC can be 15K-20K USD. Its rich coastal provinces can have a per capital nominal GDP of 30K USD.

This is considering other countries never grow and stay stagnant. Even at a growth rate of 2.5% and 20 years, the current per capita will more than double or even triple to over $60000 in Taiwan or Japan.

Also, you cannot be area specific. What about Tibet or Xingjiang? You need to take them into consideration too.

If you want to be area specific, then Tokyo is already above the $50000 mark now. If that doubles or triples then that would get it way above $100000 while China will be near $20-30k in 2020. Comparatively, Shanghai(which is China's richest city) is only $10000 as of now. Also, like you said earlier, their $30000 per capita now in 2010 is not equal in value to your $30000 per capita in 2020.

If you grow, they grow. If you grow fast, they will also grow fast. Your economy is linked with Japan and Taiwan. They are ahead and reaching them will take years simply because our populations are that big. Every decade we add between 150 to 200 million people and that has to be taken into consideration too. Reality isn't as rosy as pictured.

 

[badguy2000]

This is considering other countries never grow and stay stagnant. Even at a growth rate of 2.5% and 20 years, the current per capita will more than double or even triple to over $60000 in Taiwan or Japan.

Also, you cannot be area specific. What about Tibet or Xingjiang? You need to take them into consideration too.

If you want to be area specific, then Tokyo is already above the $50000 mark now. If that doubles or triples then that would get it way above $100000 while China will be near $20-30k in 2020. Comparatively, Shanghai(which is China's richest city) is only $10000 as of now. Also, like you said earlier, their $30000 per capita now in 2010 is not equal in value to your $30000 per capita in 2020.

for you refence.


In 1995, Taiwan's per capital nominal GDP was 13K USD. in 2010, its per capital nominal GDP is 15K USD.
In 1995, Japanese per capital nominal GDP was 35K USD, in 2010, its per capital nominal GDP is 37K USD.
In 1995, Yankee's and EU's per capital nominal GDP was 20K USD, in 2010, their per capital nominal GDP are 40-45K USD.
In 1995, S.Korea's per nominal GDP was 10K USD, in 2010, its per capital nominal GDP is 20K USD
In 1995, PRC's per capital nominal GDP was 0.6K USD , in 2010 its per capital nominal GDP is 4.5K USD.
In 1995, India's per capital nomina GDP was 0.4K USD, in 2010 its per capital nominal GDP is 1K USD.

is India shining? or india is being left more and more behind?

If you grow, they grow. If you grow fast, they will also grow fast. Your economy is linked with Japan and Taiwan. They are ahead and reaching them will take years simply because our populations are that big. Every decade we add between 150 to 200 million people and that has to be taken into consideration too. Reality isn't as rosy as pictured.

now, it is easily found that Taiwan,S.Korea and Japan depend on CHina more than CHina depend on them, if you just check their degree of dependence upon foreign trade
Without the trade with CHina, Taiwan, S.korea and Japan can not rebound so quickly in the crisis.

 

[Rage]

for you refence.


In 1995, Taiwan's per capital nominal GDP was 13K USD. in 2010, its per capital nominal GDP is 15K USD.
In 1995, Japanese per capital nominal GDP was 35K USD, in 2010, its per capital nominal GDP is 37K USD.
In 1995, Yankee's and EU's per capital nominal GDP was 20K USD, in 2010, their per capital nominal GDP are 40-45K USD.
In 1995, S.Korea's per nominal GDP was 10K USD, in 2010, its per capital nominal GDP is 20K USD
In 1995, PRC's per capital nominal GDP was 0.6K USD , in 2010 its per capital nominal GDP is 4.5K USD.
In 1995, India's per capital nomina GDP was 0.4K USD, in 2010 its per capital nominal GDP is 1K USD.

is India shining? or india is being left more and more behind?

Listen sonny, you're farting figures out of your arse.

China's per capita GDP, as of 2009, is a nominal $3,687.
India's per capita GDP, as of 2009, is a nominal $1,122.

How do you arrive at figures for 2010, when 2010 is not even over and when there are no comparable figures for India and China? What bull$hit comparative statics are you using?

Also, you seem to be "rounding off" figures to your comparative advantage LMAO :happy_2:

Don't make me shame you like I always do.

now, it is easily found that Taiwan,S.Korea and Japan depend on CHina more than CHina depend on them, if you just check their degree of dependence upon foreign trade
Without the trade with CHina, Taiwan, S.korea and Japan can not rebound so quickly in the crisis.

Your bullshit deductions will work with your bullshit Chinese trolls on your bullshit forums.

Here, you will back everything up with facts. And proper facts. Not extrapolations that you, a crank-economist, can come up with.

Now go shove your head in peewee's playwagon.

 

[p2prada]

for you refence.


In 1995, Taiwan's per capital nominal GDP was 13K USD. in 2010, its per capital nominal GDP is 15K USD.
In 1995, Japanese per capital nominal GDP was 35K USD, in 2010, its per capital nominal GDP is 37K USD.
In 1995, Yankee's and EU's per capital nominal GDP was 20K USD, in 2010, their per capital nominal GDP are 40-45K USD.
In 1995, S.Korea's per nominal GDP was 10K USD, in 2010, its per capital nominal GDP is 20K USD
In 1995, PRC's per capital nominal GDP was 0.6K USD , in 2010 its per capital nominal GDP is 4.5K USD.
In 1995, India's per capital nomina GDP was 0.4K USD, in 2010 its per capital nominal GDP is 1K USD.

China will not be anywhere near these figures in 2020. You will need 20 years of consistent 10% growth to reach those figures and that is highly optimistic considering China's ageing population. In 10 years, India will be where China is today. By 2020, India should have a per capita of $3k to $4k with $3K being the least optimistic.

China will reach figures of $40k only after 2040 with a decade of 10% growth, another decade of 5% growth and a decade of 2.5% growth which seems realistic.

is India shining? or india is being left more and more behind?

This is the part which is the most crucial in analysis of how India might become the world's new growth engine. It depends largely on us eradicating corruption and introducing reform. Right now, with 9% growth over the last 10 years, India is certainly shining. If we work it right India will continue to grow at much higher rates than previously estimated and be consistent even after 2040 with near 5% growth even 50 years from now.

If you check all the economies on the planet, there is not one single country in the world that is experiencing India's high growth rates with just a service sector. Our 9% growth in the period 2000-05 came mainly from the service sector. Our industry and mining are taking off only now and this will add to growth in the future. Agriculture is relatively stagnant and reform in this sector will increase India's growth to even greater heights. You could say we may have more potential than China.

now, it is easily found that Taiwan,S.Korea and Japan depend on CHina more than CHina depend on them, if you just check their degree of dependence upon foreign trade Without the trade with CHina, Taiwan, S.korea and Japan can not rebound so quickly in the crisis.

It is relative. The Japanese invest in China to make cheaper products that they buy and thereby fuel your economy. Your economy is dependent on trade and FDI as the primary contributors. If they stop buying, you stop growing. So, your dependency for growth is largely dependent on other countries. That shows why India did not suffer a major slump during the recession compared to China. India never gave a stimulus package, only increased credit(by only $25Billion) and reduced lending rates and will be experiencing greater than 9% growth in 2010. Comparatively your 9-10% growth will come from a $585Billion that was added to your economy from the state funds.

 

[amoy]

Just to add my 50 cents (-_-) about GREYing

Development level is very uneven across China with most developed and advanced areas being
- Bohai-Sea Rim (centers - Beijing Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao...)
- Yangtze River Delta (Shanghai, Suzhou, Nanjing)
- Pearl River Delta (Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangzhou)

Still enormous untapped potential in inland areas, for industrialization, for consumption...

Nowadays there's a more and more visible trend of migration of industries and investment and know-how from the the above mentioned powerhouses to less developed hinterlands (Central China, and then the West).

For example, most evidently Foxconn in Shenzhen, who was in deep trouble of labor unrest recently, is now busy setting up new bases in Zhengzhou (Central China), and Chongqing (West) where cheap labor is abundant. The government encourages such a go-west trend as it absorbs a large number of workforce (migrant workers) locally who may stay instead of going to the Coastal for employment. Certainly improved INFRASTRUCTURES is an anabler for the move.

Chengdu (West) in fact has made a headway in 'copying' Banglore model of turning itself into a centre of back-office outsourcing for multinationals (at this stage domestically). Chongqing (West) and Wuhan (Central) are boasting of becoming China's 'Chicago'.

Pictures of Chongqing where I spent a few unforgettable nights >> http://www.google.com.hk/imglanding...=isch:1&start=7#tbnid=JIgz0HGVq_HMPM&start=11

and Chengdu, a memorable city claiming 'u won't wanna leave once coming' << http://www.google.com.hk/imglanding...s=isch:1&start=0#tbnid=0srW_zYeO2MISM&start=4

Conclusion: Still a long way to go before real 'greying' takes place and an end of 'demographic dividend'.

 

[badguy2000]

China will not be anywhere near these figures in 2020. You will need 20 years of consistent 10% growth to reach those figures and that is highly optimistic considering China's ageing population. In 10 years, India will be where China is today. By 2020, India should have a per capita of $3k to $4k with $3K being the least optimistic.

China will reach figures of $40k only after 2040 with a decade of 10% growth, another decade of 5% growth and a decade of 2.5% growth which seems realistic.



This is the part which is the most crucial in analysis of how India might become the world's new growth engine. It depends largely on us eradicating corruption and introducing reform. Right now, with 9% growth over the last 10 years, India is certainly shining. If we work it right India will continue to grow at much higher rates than previously estimated and be consistent even after 2040 with near 5% growth even 50 years from now.

If you check all the economies on the planet, there is not one single country in the world that is experiencing India's high growth rates with just a service sector. Our 9% growth in the period 2000-05 came mainly from the service sector. Our industry and mining are taking off only now and this will add to growth in the future. Agriculture is relatively stagnant and reform in this sector will increase India's growth to even greater heights. You could say we may have more potential than China.



It is relative. The Japanese invest in China to make cheaper products that they buy and thereby fuel your economy. Your economy is dependent on trade and FDI as the primary contributors. If they stop buying, you stop growing. So, your dependency for growth is largely dependent on other countries. That shows why India did not suffer a major slump during the recession compared to China. India never gave a stimulus package, only increased credit(by only $25Billion) and reduced lending rates and will be experiencing greater than 9% growth in 2010. Comparatively your 9-10% growth will come from a $585Billion that was added to your economy from the state funds.

for your reference:

2009 , china's trade amount is NO.1 in the world,much more than Japan's . Without the huge import from CHina, Japanese economy would be worse.


One hand,CHina has much cheaper labour than any of developed countries;
On the other hand, China has much better infrastructures and more full industry chains than any of other developing countries.
Besides, China also has much better literacy rate than most of other developing countries.
CHinese workers are much more disciplined than those of other countries.

that is why china is invincible manufacturing titan in the world.

Black Africa, and India have much cheaper labour and younger population than CHina for long time. but that is not enougn for Black Africa and India to take the place of CHina.

If india were really want to compete China, fix your poor infrastructure and broken industry chain first......
then raise your literacy rade .......
then pour the awareness of "punctual" and "discipline" into most Indian's brains and fix your unpunctual bad habbit.

Otherwise, "India shining" is just a pipe dream!

 

[Ray]

The One Child policy is going to be as problematic to China in filling in the job slots as it is in Europe, where there is the Double Income No Kids problem, leading to immigration of other peoples without which they can hardly function, and the consequent cultural, ethnic, language and religious problems.

 

[Vinod2070]

Black Africa

Stop this BS! No one is calling you yellow Chinese here! Stop making a fool of yourself here.

 

[badguy2000]

The One Child policy is going to be as problematic to China in filling in the job slots as it is in Europe, where there is the Double Income No Kids problem, leading to immigration of other peoples without which they can hardly function, and the consequent cultural, ethnic, language and religious problems.

well, in one decade, Chinese cities will be full of illegal immigrants from Southeast Asia, Africa and south Asia.

In fact, the illegal immigrants is already annoying Chinese in Chinese south rich province such as Guangdong.
just in Guangzhou, there are over 200K Africans illegal immigrants.

 

[Ray]

well, in one decade, Chinese cities will be full of illegal immigrants from Southeast Asia, Africa and south Asia.

In fact, the illegal immigrants is already annoying Chinese in Chinese south rich province such as Guangdong.
just in Guangzhou, there are over 200K Africans illegal immigrants.

It will be worth noting how these illegals become Hanhua 'using the Chinese ways to transform the barbarians (yongxiabianyi)'.

中国人

 

[Vinod2070]

badguy, you are living in dreams, extrapolating the current trends may not work. Don't get too far ahead of yourself.

Why do you think your coastal provinces will start having the pr capita income comparable to the Japanese in a decade? Have they started innovating like the japanese? Are they producing world leaders in any fields other than cheap manufacturing and piracy? Won't the industry that made them rich move out to other places within and without China? What will replace those jobs?

China is still not known for innovation though it has done very well in manufacturing using Western technology and processes and optimizing them greatly. We need to see if it can make the next grade.

Success is by no means assured. Especially in a mind controlled society where free thinking is frowned upon.

 

[badguy2000]

badguy, you are living in dreams, extrapolating the current trends may not work. Don't get too far ahead of yourself.

Why do you think your coastal provinces will start having the pr capita income comparable to the Japanese in a decade? Have they started innovating like the japanese? Are they producing world leaders in any fields other than cheap manufacturing and piracy? Won't the industry that made them rich move out to other places within and without China? What will replace those jobs?

China is still not known for innovation though it has done very well in manufacturing using Western technology and processes and optimizing them greatly. We need to see if it can make the next grade.

Success is by no means assured. Especially in a mind controlled society where free thinking is frowned upon.

Vinod, let time be the judge,which can be judge whether what I posted is right or wrong...ok?

but one of my predictions can be verified soon. that is " CHina's per capital nominal GDP (2010) will be about 4500 USD" ........

BTW, the per capital nominal GDP of Chinese coastal province such as Zhejiang is 6K-10K USD now. but In 2015, that will be about 10-15K USD,almost equal to the one of Taiwanese today.

 

[Vinod2070]

Vinod, let time be the judge,which can be judge whether what I posted is right or wrong...ok?

Yes, we have to wait and see.

but one of my predictions can be verified soon. that is " CHina's per capital nominal GDP (2010) will be about 4500 USD" ........

This is obvious! It is not "your prediction" it is common knowledge. As for the rest of it, you are just extrapolating the current trends, nothing big about it.

BTW, the per capital nominal GDP of Chinese coastal province such as Zhejiang is 6K-10K USD now. but In 2015, that will be about 10-15K USD,almost equal to the one of Taiwanese today.

We have to see that. For it to happen, several things need to happen and we need to see if they do.

What makes you think that China can sustain the same growth when Japan and Taiwan could not do it (asp per your own data)? Those societies were much better placed than your coastal provinces for success.