"Are (Modi's) India and (Sharif's) Pakistan Sliding Toward War?" -- Let's Hope Not

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by tsunami, Aug 3, 2015.

  1. tsunami

    tsunami Regular Member

    Jul 20, 2015
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    John Stimson warns in a detailed, factual article—“Are India and Pakistan Sliding Toward War?” — that rising tensions over Kashmir – and poor relations between Modi and Pakistan – could lead soon to war. I don’t disagree with the points he assembles. Kashmir is always a tinderbox, and right now, is indeed alarming. India and Pakistan have fought four wars since Independence. Terrorist groups, some with ties to Pakistan’s strong ISI, can provoke confrontations. The Subcontinent always seems on edge.

    However, here are four points to suggest relations between India and Pakistan may get worse but not reach actual head-on full-scale combat between regular armed forces.

    1. Modi will hopefully be a calming influence. It is true that he leads the BJP, which is not overly friendly toward Pakistan. But as the old saying goes, “war stifles reform.” If India gets distracted by war, it will stifle his program of forcing through tough economic reforms. That program means far more to him and his party’s future than posturing with Pakistan.

    2. Each country has a good military reason not to fight. The Indian military weaponry is, frankly, backward. India has been on a shopping spree of foreign arms purchases. But it still has a long way to escape its situation after the Mumbai terror attack by terrorists from Pakistani-supported groups, when India’s land forces were simply not in shape to strike back.

    3. Pakistan has an internal war against militants, especially the Pakistan Taliban. The war is long past the point of full hostilities. Pakistan’s armed forces would face a two-front war if they took on India. (It must be admitted, though, that it is never far from the minds of the Pakistani military that they might fight with India, and so they are probably ready to cope with India.)

    4. Other powers will pour oil on trouble waters. The United States has been trying to work with Pakistan about several vital issues, especially Afghanistan; at the same time, the United States is trying to form a low-key alliance with Modi against resurgent China. So the United States will try to cool down both sides. (In a prev’ ious article, though, I did suggest that the United States’ sharing of military and nuclear technology with India might rile Pakistan.) China is Pakistan’s ally, but it does not want to be India’s enemy, nor would it want a defeat to destabilize Pakistan. So China will not be an opponent of peace.

    So: while war is definitely something to worry about, hope for peace

  3. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

    Jan 9, 2012
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    Akhand Bharat
    War pakis can't afford politically economically and diplomatically and last but the least military
  4. punjab47

    punjab47 महाबलामहावीर्यामहासत्यपराक्रमासर्वाग्रेक्षत्रियाजट Banned

    Jul 31, 2015
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    We've been at war, since Muhammad said he dreamed of one day ruling Hind.

    I don't see, what's new..
  5. rohit.gr77

    rohit.gr77 Regular Member

    Feb 24, 2015
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    War even if it happens would as always be started by the Porkies trying to show off their Mard E Mommingiri. :hehe:
  6. ezsasa

    ezsasa Senior Member Senior Member

    Jul 12, 2014
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    Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India
    India pakistan have been at war since 1947, Let's not make any mistake about it. Pakistan cannot afford a war. Political leadership of both countries has nothing to do with war, It's their military that we need to worry about.
    SANITY likes this.
  7. GokuInd

    GokuInd Regular Member

    Mar 31, 2009
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    This article reeks of parochial US paternalism. Just what my gut says after scanning this piece. Nothing special.

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