Analysis: China risks following Japan into economic coma

Discussion in 'China' started by t_co, Jul 30, 2013.

  1. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

    Dec 20, 2012
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    Analysis: China risks following Japan into economic coma | Reuters

    A bit simplistic, but still a good guide for the economic challenges facing China in the decade ahead.

    China is little bit like a fishing boat that's grown to become a supertanker, except the controls at the helm are still sized for a fishing boat - hence any central policy levers are miniscule and clumsy compared to the problems they're trying to tackle. Even the most skilled of pilots would have trouble steering the boat in the decade ahead, much less with the tools at hand; this is why I doubt China would engage in any wars over the next decade: its leadership will remain domestically focused for the time being, owing to the scale/complexity of economic (and possibly political) reform.

    I state all of the above based on conversations I've had with friends and family over the past two years, including a flag officer in the PLA General Staff and a director at one of China's largest banks, as well as non-public factsheets which I have seen.

    It is because I know that reality that the dominant view of China on this forum - veering between trumped-up paranoia and unjustified disparagement - bothers me.


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