Rage, placing ten sats in the orbit is not the same has making MIRVs isnt it? India is working on MIRVs for the Agni III i think. Can that be used on the Agni II?
Yusufbhai,
Parallels can certainly be drawn between multiple satellite integration and dispensation, on the one hand, and MIRV's, on the other. The major difference is that these satellites are positioned in different orbits in space while in the case of MIRV the warheads re-enter the earth’s atmosphere and fire on the target. Therefore, the fact that we've executed multiple single-vehicle satellite launches, on multiple occasions, means that India already possesses incipient MIRV capabilities. However, several preconditions must be fulfilled before India can develop a viable MIRV technology; these include: vernier engines, or rocket engines that are re-startable, high precision inertial guidance technology, sophisticated re-entry vehicles that are highly accurate, and highly efficient miniaturized warheads.
The "bus" or Multiple Independently targettable Reentry Vehicle, is what carries each warhead, ensconced within "re-entry vehicles", and release them sequentially after having made highly precise orbital trajectory shifts with the aid of a highly-precise guidance and control mechanism. It can only do that if it is able to circumvent the rapidly deploying vehicles, which themselves may be deployed along several trajectories, by making minute adjustments to its own orbital trajectory with the aid of vernier engines.
ISRO has demonstrated several of these 'technological precursors' already, which fallout is directly adaptable to, and will directly accrue to the realization of maneuverable platforms for ICBM use, an attempt to explain which I will make below.
Now, consider for instance the empirical-technological similarities with Motorola's alleged technology transfer of the Iridium Smart Satellite Dispenser to China in the mid 1990's. While the claim of technology transfer proved to be syllogistic, the technological parameters which Motorola provided them helped the Chinese develop a more sophisticated multiple satellite launch capability (they had earlier demonstrated the ability to integrate and dispense 3 satellites in the 1980's) and accrued to their MIRV program. Similar to the Iridium, Isro has also developed the 'Dual Launch Adapter' (DLA) to launch and dispense multiple satellites used on the PSLV C7 in 2007. The DLA launched two 500,650 kilogram spacecraft – the Cartosat 2 and the Space Recovery Capsule - and two other smaller satellites off its vehicle. The Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle's terminal stage is also akin to the Post Boost Control System in that it is a re-startable maneuvering platform, similar to the one used in the Tran-stage in the Titan III and Titan II Mk6 RV.
Where do we fall short? The hypergolic / liquid-propellant engine on the PSLV is a 7.5 kilonewton, pressure fed, bi-propellant, 305 per second impulse, liquid engine that secures payloads into orbital injection. But for the final deployment stage of an MIRV technology, propulsive energy alone don't count for optimizing and calibrating injection accuracy. Instead, very precise navigation sensors and a highly sophisticated guidance & control system come into play. We may have some work to do on this yet, but we've already demonstrated an incipient capability with the use of the indigenously-developed Dynamically Tuned Gyros (DTG) and Servo Accelerometers (SA)- high-accuracy payload injection devices on the RESINS [Redundant Strap Down Inertial Navigation System] system of the PSLV. What we also did with the preparation for the moon mission, was to deploy and recover the SRE (Space Recovery Experiment) capsule that demonstrated the ability among others to use hypersonic aerothermodynamics, aerothermal struktures, and navigation, guidance and control of reentry vehicles. Now, this was significant, because the SRE in itself demonstrated: a) a hypersonic capability; b) validated the on-board Kalman filter, which provides sensory information about speed and position of a moving or static object; and c) was similar to, but albeit more advanced than, the MBRV hypersonic re-entry vehicle that served as a pivotal stepping-stone for the US Minuteman III.
In terms of inertial guidance mechanisms, we may also have to work on perfecting our navigation and command & guidance systems. Particularly, since most satellites carry their own maneuvering propellant, allowing for a higher margin of error in vehicular deployment and subsequent correction in satellite launches as opposed to MIRV's. On the other hand, warheads from missiles have no such luxury: no 'augmented guidance mechanisms' as such, meaning that the responsibility of locking on and smashing into terrestrial targets is left entirely to the "bus" and the re-entry vehicle. The margin of error therefore is substantially reduced.
Warhead miniaturization is also another field we may require adequate mastery in. It'd not be unreasonable to assume that we've made some advances in recalibrating and recompacting fission devices since Pokhran, 1998. But whether we've been able to do it
enough, to successfully fit it into an MIRV and integrate it with a 'true' MIRV-capable delivery platform remains unknown.
The guidance and control mechanism would also have to be of the nature of a very high memory computer repository. ISRO has made reasonable advances in this area, so it shouldn't represent an
acute challenge.
Now crucially, vernier engines were used, as far back as 2001, on the Geosynchronous Launch Vehicle (GSLV) which placed a two-ton payload in geo-transfer orbit.
In addition, advancements in carbon composites to reduce the weight of high-quality, heat deflecting ablative material and stabilize gyrations on re-entry vehicles have also been made.
To that end, what we have demonstrated right now is the ability to stop and start hypergolic engines and the capacity to shift orbit to emplace satellites on different orbital trajectories at will, as also the (very proximate) technological precursors to developing an MIRV-capable advanced guidance & navigation system, that will aid in the realization of an MIRV capability.
The integration of satellite payloads onto space vehicles is also relevant to the integration of multiple warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles.
So what is our conclusion: India already has critical enabling technology necessary for the research and development of an MIRV capability, validated through a series of successful satellite launches. When, and where, this technology shows up is only a matter of time, international politicking, and speculation. For all we know, we may already have developed the technology, the entire process shrouded in secrecy because it is so internationally sensitive, particularly given 'recent' events.