Afghanistan News and Discussions

Status
Not open for further replies.

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Stalemate at Camp Victory

Camp Victory directed by Carol Dysinger

Reviewed by Hannah Gurman

"All I need is 100 loyal Afghan men, and we could defeat the Taliban." This is the first we hear from Afghan General Fazalulin Sayar in Carol Dysinger's documentary Camp Victory, which opened in New York this past weekend as part of the Human Rights Watch film festival.

The film traces the relationship between Sayar - an earnest commander whose commitment and fatigue show in the two deep grooves that run from his eyes to his mouth - and his gaggle of American advisers from the National Guard who have come to Camp Victory in western Afghanistan. The Americans are there to



help Sayar turn a ragged bunch of young Afghan men into an effective fighting force.

The documentary chronicles the development of Camp Victory from 2004 to 2009, during which Sayar's claim to need only 100 men to defeat the Taliban becomes increasingly problematic. The problem isn't that the general overstates the capability of the Afghan soldier. Instead, he reveals the difficulty of recruiting and maintaining even a modest number of quality soldiers in his ranks. The challenges that Camp Victory has faced illustrate the difficulty of the US coalition strategy overall in Afghanistan.

The rise of the ANA
Afghan President Hamid Karzai launched the Afghan National Army (ANA) in 2002 to supplant the domination of the country by local warlords. Putting Afghan security forces in charge of the war against anti-government Taliban extremists has been and remains a key pillar in the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) counter-insurgency strategy in the region. Indeed, the success of America's war in Afghanistan hangs on the Afghan army. "The Afghan National Army can solve the problems of the Americans," said Afghan Colonel Akhbar in 2003, but "until the Afghan National army is built, there will be no security in Afghanistan."

Building a national military in a hurry is a heavy task, and the battle record of the Afghan troops trained at Camp Victory offers few encouraging signs. In 2006, the company faced heavy firefighting in Lashkagar. As Dysinger's film reports, a few Afghan soldiers fled and many more took a back seat to the all-night shootout that left an American medic dead. Unfortunately, Sayar's men are no exception. Despite the emphasis the US and coalition forces have placed on the ANA in the overall counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan, the Afghan soldiers have performed poorly on the battlefield.

In the Taliban stronghold of Marjah, where fighting was heavy this past spring, ANA forces were nominally in charge. But, as C J Chivers reported in The New York Times, American officers and troops were clearly leading the battle in a "city" with a population of only 50,000.

On June 7, Afghan security forces were unable to prevent an attack on a police training center in the southern city of Kandahar that killed two American security contractors. The incidents don't bode well for the much-anticipated and now-delayed Kandahar offensive.

Understanding the shortcomings
Why is the Afghan army proving to be such a disappointing fighting force? Most of the news and official government reports have tended to frame the problem in technical terms. Chivers, who reported on the shortcomings of the ANA in Marjah, did a series of video stories this past spring that focused on the poor marksmanship of Afghan soldiers who point their Kalashnikov assault rifles from their shoulder rather than holding the sights to their eyes so they can actually aim at the targets.

For its part, the Pentagon has underscored the low salaries of infantrymen, the lack of trained officers and mid-level leaders in the ANA, and a dearth of available trainers from the coalition forces.

Focusing on these gaps in the capacity and technical abilities of the ANA, which do exist, can be misleading. Take the issue of salary, for instance. According to Dysinger's film, at US$66 a day, the salary for new recruits at Camp Victory was already more than double what these young men, most of whom grew up in refugee camps in Pakistan, could expect to earn elsewhere. And while these soldiers may be poor marksmen when they enter the army, it isn't clear why they remain so after months of training.

"It is not difficult to turn a religious student into a religious fighter, capable of using light weapons," says former Afghan defense official Haroun Mir. Surely, the Afghans, who have been at war for the past 28 years, and who have fought foreign occupation for hundreds of years before that, are not inherently lacking in military skills. One doesn't have to romanticize the Afghan warrior to concede that the technical ability should come fairly easily, so long as there is a will behind it.

Perhaps the more important question is not whether the Afghans can fight, but whether they actually want to fight. One of the more illuminating scenes in Camp Victory shows a line of new recruits looking apathetic and somewhat bewildered as their American advisers direct them through physical training exercises. The shout, "Come on, one more push-up!" from the American trainers is met with a good-humored laugh followed by "no thank you". If this were a US feature film, Jack Black, not Richard Gere, would play the part of the new recruit.

The National Guardsmen in Camp Victory respond to the lethargy in their trainees with a considerable amount of patience and understanding. Elsewhere in Afghanistan, some American advisers have been less successful at keeping their frustration and anger at bay.

A March 2009 video of US Marines serving as embedded tactical trainers in Afghanistan shows US soldiers chastising their Afghan counterparts, who prefer to smoke hashish rather than prepare for inspections and ready themselves for the day's mission tasks. At one point, an American trainer, speaking to his Afghan counterpart over walkie-talkie, says, "I don't give a f**k about your chai, I care about the mission," an exchange that obviously upsets the Afghan interpreter in the middle.

Echoes of Iraq
This scene is far tamer, but reminiscent of amateur footage from Iraq (the place and date are not reported) in which a US soldier curses out a group of Iraqi police trainees. "I come down here to try to train you, and you're f**kin' trying to kill Americans. You're trying to kill your fellow f**kin' Iraqis."

Differences in tone notwithstanding, one common thread that runs through the frustration of American trainers in Afghanistan and Iraq is their emphasis on loyalty to nation. The American soldier in Iraq is so angry because he suspects that a good portion of the men standing before him have been working for the Mahdi militia and not the Iraqi nation.

"You guys better figure out where your loyalties lie. Are you loyal to Iraq? The Shi'ites? The Sunnis?" With much less ire but a similar message, an American officer tells his demoralized Afghan counterpart, "You need to figure out what motivates your soldiers. You need to get that sense of nationalism."

In fact, in several recent conflicts, it's not just the fighting ability of Afghan soldiers but also their loyalty that has come into question. Last November, an Afghan police officer opened fire on his British colleagues in Helmand province, killing five. In January, a suicide bomber wearing an Afghan army uniform carried out an attack on a NATO base in Khost province.

And in the latest attack, a rogue Afghan soldier killed three British troops on a base in Helmand province on July 12. The soldier, identified by the UK Military of Defense as Talib Hussein, shot one as he slept and killed two others by firing a rocket-propelled grenade into the base's command center.

These incidents suggest that Afghan insurgents have infiltrated the ANA, and perhaps more troubling, that some soldiers are playing on both sides of the war.

Perhaps the question isn't why the average soldier isn't loyal to the ANA, but rather why should he be? The attitude of the average Afghan toward the central government is decidedly ambivalent. There isn't much evidence that the US's counter-insurgency strategy has been effective in decisively turning people against the insurgency.

Rising Insurgency?
Buried in a sea of updates on US and NATO organizational streamlining in the US Defense Department's recent progress report on Afghanistan is the stark admission that 2009 was a good year for the insurgency, which has been gaining support among the Afghan populace. Of the 121 areas deemed strategically critical to the US strategy in Afghanistan, only 29 have populations that support the Afghan government.

Since that's a declassified Pentagon statistic, the reality may be even worse. In line with its entire report, the Pentagon frames its response to the problem in terms of capacity-building and technical improvements, in this case using the language of governance. "ISAF [International Security Assistance Forces] is working closely with the Government of Afghanistan and the international community to coordinate and synchronize governance and development in the 48 focus districts prioritized for 2010."

Meanwhile, as the same report notes, the insurgency is increasing its own capacity to act as a shadow government, in some areas already doing many of the same things that the central government now only plans to do.

Just as the United States can't build Afghan nationalism solely through closing capacity and technical gaps, neither can it foment nationalism in the military solely through army training. Consider the US experience by contrast. Although the US military has surely played an important role in fostering and perpetuating nationalism, it was not by any means the initial source of national feeling, which bubbled up from a complex web of economic, political, and cultural forces.

Occupied as much by internal strife as by foreign invaders, Afghanistan has little basis on which to build a national feeling. At Camp Victory, the infantry soldiers march to the words, "Oh country, I'll sacrifice my life to defend you!" It is as though they are singing a song in a foreign language.

Meanwhile, after target practice, local villagers scramble to pick up artillery shells to sell them to the highest bidder. Like the Afghan infantry soldier, these villagers still do not have a lasting reason for being anything but fence-sitters. And it is still not clear how the US counter-insurgency strategy will change a government or a people whose attitudes and behaviors toward each other have complex historical and social roots that cannot be fully addressed through capacity-building and technical improvements.

For want of 100 men
If there ever were a true Afghan patriot, General Sayar would qualify. Ever since the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, he looked to the United States to help his country. In the 1980s, while serving in the Soviet-run Afghan army, he had close contacts with the US-supported mujahideen and its leader Ahmad Shah Massoud.

On January 14, 2009, Sayar's helicopter crashed in the Adraskan district of Herat province in western Afghanistan. Colonel Shute, Sayar's American adviser, was devastated when he heard the news and wondered how the United States had let such a high-ranking general get on an outdated clunker of an aircraft that no American would board. Sayar saw America as his country's hope, and America let him down.

It's not clear whether the film wants us to see this tragedy as the story of a lost victory or that of a lost cause. The ambiguity stems in part from Dysinger's choice to explore the larger problems facing the ANA through the lens of Sayar's relationship with Shute.

This gives Camp Victory a human quality and makes for a compelling personal story. Both Sayar and Shute are honorable and intriguing individuals who were able to forge an unlikely, intimate, and loyal friendship. At the same time, this story of camaraderie between two officers, one of whom is American, takes the focus off of the Afghan infantry soldier whose bond to the country of Afghanistan is ultimately the most important and tenuous of all.

Camp Victory ends with Sayar's death, which occurred before the Barack Obama administration escalated its commitment to the war in Afghanistan. Over the past year and a half, the effort to build up the ANA has become even more of an urgent priority, in line with the Obama administration's plan to begin withdrawing American troops in mid-2011.

In January 2010, the Pentagon announced the "acceleration" of the ANA training program. Under this plan, the Afghan army would increase from 102,400 personnel to 134,000 by October 2010 and 171, 600 by October 2011. The goal is to grow the Afghan army to 400,000 by 2013. With the United States as primary bankroller of the ANA, the US Congress has appropriated $6.6 billion dollars for the task.

According to the Defense Department's most recent report card on Afghanistan, recruitment levels are up and on schedule to meet these targets. So many soldiers and so much money, but still the question remains: Can they get 100 loyal men?
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Pakistan's role in reconciliation ambiguous: US



WASHINGTON: Pakistan's role in the Afghan reconciliation process is "ambiguous and opaque", says a senior US envoy as Washington prepares for one of the largest international conferences in Kabul next week to find a viable solution to the nine-year war.

In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, US special Representative Richard Holbrooke also made it abundantly clear that the United States was not seeking reconciliation with the Haqqani network.

"Pakistan's role in reconciliation is ambiguous and opaque at this point. It is something that we want to learn more about," he said.

"Remember, we're talking about reconciliation in Afghanistan not Pakistan's own relationships."

Mr Holbrooke was responding to a question from Senator Jeanne Shaheen who had asked the US envoy to define Pakistan's role in the reconciliation process.

Mr Holbrooke explained that Pakistan itself was facing five major insurgencies — the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Haqqani network and Al Qaeda.

The US envoy identified TTP as the group which trained the Times Square bomber, LeT as responsible for the Mumbai bombing and the Haqqani network as an "odious" group, "in North Waziristan who've been attacking the American troops".

His description indicated that the US did not approve of Pakistan's efforts to arrange reconciliation between the Afghan government and the Haqqani network.

"I do not want to leave any on this committee with the impression that some of the news reports about recently fevered accounts of secret deals between elements in Pakistan and elements in the Taliban are accurate," he told the committee.

"We have no evidence whatsoever of the accuracy of those reports. But there is movement," he added.

Senator John Kerry, the committee's chairman, however, indicated what the US expected Pakistan to do to facilitate US efforts for ending the Afghan war.

He noted that Pakistan was "central to the resolution" of the Afghan dispute, emphasising that "there isn't a military solution but you need a political one".

Yet, he explained that the US expected a military move from Pakistan to secure its western border with Afghanistan to enable a political solution.

"It seems to me that the greatest pressure comes maybe possibly with Kandahar, but certainly not in the absence of pressure on the western part of Pakistan, which we're struggling with the Pakistanis to get to be a sufficient level," the senator said.
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Post-US Afghanistan




Quantum note

Friday, July 16, 2010
Dr Muzaffar Iqbal

Imagine the following scenario: the US-led NATO forces pull out of Afghanistan, though not as chaotically as Russians did, and certainly without admitting defeat. The most likely situation will be that they just install a new Afghan government of some kind, make a lot of fuss about helping Afghans, claim that now Afghans are ready to govern their own country, even claim the high moral ground of honouring their promise of not occupying Afghanistan, but depart, nevertheless. Then what?

There is only one unfolding scenario for the next two weeks: town after town falls to half-organised Taliban troops as they sweep across the land, with fiercest fighting taking place in the north. But then what?

The next scene is not clear, ground situation is not as straightforward, but still, one has to pierce through the cloud to explore various possibilities. But before doing so, one must secure the premise: are the US-led NATO forces really going to pull out and if yes, under what conditions?

It has been said over and over that Afghanistan is a country no one has been able to occupy; this is a historically proven fact, even though the political and military leadership of the United States acts as if it is beyond the constraints of several centuries of human history. Another factor is simple math: for how long can the US economy sustain a drain of five billion dollars a month? Obviously not forever.

Furthermore, every single coffin that goes back to the Unites States, Canada, the UK, Germany, or any of the other western countries, sends shock waves across the population. For how can any government -- facing its next round of public scrutiny at the next general election -- ignore these shock waves? Obviously not forever.

In addition to the above, the fact that the US aggression in Afghanistan has already surpassed the timeline set by Vietnam, which tested the ability of the US forces and economy to its limit, suggests that every new day that sees US forces in Afghanistan is now readily overtaxing its entire system.

Thus, President Obama, like all his partners in war, would need to seriously think through the modus operandi of a pull-out, if not by next July, then certainly before July 2012, when he gears up for his re-election. That leaves hardly enough time for working out post-US scenarios for all involved, especially the next door neighbour, Pakistan. But is Pakistani leadership ready for this? What are the questions which must be asked by Pakistanis?

Let us not pretend to know answers, but does Pakistani leadership even know the questions? Are there people in the army, in the Foreign Office, and in any of the political parties who are even capable of framing possible scenarios which will emerge in the post-US Afghanistan? The answer is obvious.

Thus, it becomes clear that Pakistan will deal with the post-US Afghan situation as haphazardly as it dealt with the situation during the long years of US occupation of that rugged land to the north. But would that be of any help in a drastically changed scenario in which the Taliban are not going to be content with operating across the so-called Durand Line, but would certain attempt to secure strategic cross-border areas in order to survive in Kabul?

Whether or not Pakistani leadership thinks through possible strategies, one thing is certain: the destiny of Pakistan is now irrevocably intertwined with that of Afghanistan. No matter what happens next, Pakistan will not be able to leave its neighbour to the north. There is a certain historical compulsion in this changed scenario, already predicted at the poetic level by Iqbal. That, however, is a topic for another quantum note. For now, let us just list the questions which need to be addressed by Pakistani leadership at the military and political levels:

1. What would be the role of Pakistani military during the massive pull-out of hardware and war machinery from Afghanistan? Assuming that it will be an orderly pull-out, and the NATO army will just fly out of its basis in Afghanistan, one cannot assume that they will spend millions, if not billions, of dollars on taking back their heavy armoured vehicles and other machines.

2. Assuming that a "US-friendly" government is installed, just like in Iraq, and the reigns of the country are handed over to this puppet regime (which may or may not include the present puppets), what would Pakistan do to secure its interests in the short-term, before the waves of the Taliban sweep across Afghanistan, and what would Pakistan do in the aftermath of the Taliban success?

3. What if the post-US era turns out to be that of another civil war in Afghanistan with the Taliban on the one hand and a US-supported regime (which will be internationally accepted) on the other hand locked in struggle to survive or perish? What would Pakistan do in such a situation?

4. Given that Pakistani military and political setup has not been able to secure its own cities from Afghanistan-related violence, what will Pakistan do to prevent the spillage of Afghan civil war into its own territory?

These are some of the questions which need to be urgently and openly debated at the national level. Had there been a functional parliament, one would have hoped that those who have been elected to take care of the nation's affairs would be already at it. In the absence of a functional parliament, there could be think tanks and political parties discussing these issues. But alas, there is little hope there as well. So, by default, the only possibility is Pakistan will have its knee-jerk reactions when the time comes and it will all depend on who holds the reigns at the point in time. Thus, those who are thinking ahead will try to have their men in place by then and if the present dispensation is willing to do their bidding, then they will keep it in place.
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Bad news for Afghanistan




Saturday, July 17, 2010
Rizwan Asghar

Revelations by the Pentagon and the US Geological Survey that Afghanistan contains vast riches in untapped mineral deposits is not very welcome news: the discovery will not bring benefits to the Afghan people. According to some estimates, Afghanistan contains at least $1 trillion worth of minerals, including gold, cobalt, iron ore, copper, aluminium, silver and lithium. They are particularly concentrated in the border areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The country promises to become the "Saudi Arabia of lithium."

Normally, the discovery would have been great news. The wealth would have attracted a flood of foreign investment and led to the development of the impoverished country. But the discovery is a bad omen for the population of occupied Afghanistan. The presence of the minerals may lead to greater conflict in a country which already has more than its share of crises, the war being just one of them. The vast scale of Afghanistan's mineral wealth is likely to transform the region into an arena of intense competition between the various competing actors. The presence of natural deposits can often turn out to be a curse rather than a blessing for the peoples of the countries concerned. For instance, the discovery of oil has led to unending conflict in some regions where it was found.

In an attempt to get hold of the resources, international and regional powers will jump into the likely fray resulting from the discovery of the minerals. The Indian mines minister recently announced that India will take measure for training of Afghans and to establish avenues for bilateral cooperation in the field of minerals. China, which also intends to dominate the development of Afghanistan's mineral wealth, has already signed a $3 billion deal to mine cooper in Afghanistan's Logar province. As well as the United States itself, Russia and Iran will also try to get involved. All this will lead to still greater instability in the country and the region.

The discovery is certain to have an impact on the US-Nato operations in Afghanistan. The Taliban can be expected to put up a greater fight so as to retain control of areas known to be mineral-rich. At the same time, it could spark fierce competition among the various tribal factions in Afghanistan.

It had already been known that Afghanistan is well endowed with mineral reserves, but most of the resources remained unexploited due to the constant war situation since the end of the 1970s, as well as the country's rugged terrain and lack of infrastructure. Meanwhile, lack of technical know-how and outdated technology hampered the process.

Some analysts say that the ominous timing is of the discovery is an attempt by the US military establishment to continue the occupation of the country. A geological survey of Afghanistan had been carried out by the US in 2007 but its findings were deliberately kept undisclosed. According to the New York Times, NATO officials revealed that private security companies "are using American money to bribe the Taliban" to fuel the insurgency. So it is clear that part of the US military establishment is not in favour of the withdrawal of US forces, which is scheduled to start in July 2011. Apparently these elements are leaving no stone unturned to force US forces to continue their presence in Afghanistan. This could seriously undermine US efforts to win over Afghans, in a bid to defeat the Taliban.

Revelation of the discovery of the minerals in Afghanistan can also be an attempt to mobilise political support by some vested interests intending to keep the US occupation of the country well beyond July 2011, the time announced by President Obama for the beginning of the process of withdrawal of US troops. The revelation will also invigorate the interest of other allied countries in Afghanistan. It may also be an attempt to create the false impression that if the US departs from Afghanistan soon, it will lose out the vast amount of mineral wealth to other regional powers like Russia and China, India and Iran.
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Resist this pressure



Saturday, July 17, 2010
Tasneem Noorani

The newspaper headline got me out of my writing stupor and on to my desk. The headlines said: "Afghanistan seals Pakistan border trade deal this month".

Now the talks between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been going on for some time on the Afghan Transit Trade Agreement. One was pleased that no further concession had been given by the government of Pakistan so far. But it appears that US pressure for getting Afghanistan and India what they want, in cross-border trade, is immense, as a tripartite MoU was signed in Washington on May 6, 2009, under the watchful eyes of Hillary Clinton. Thereafter, she highlighted the importance of the agreement with subtle hints at bringing India in, 'only to benefit Afghanistan'. As a follow-up, now Hillary Clinton wants to sign something on May 20 when she comes to Kabul. It will be a feather in the cap if Pakistan allows Afghanistan transit facilities to and from India.

Historically, Pakistan has allowed transit trade to Afghanistan since Partition. However, it was formulised through the 1965 Afghan Transit Trade Agreement. Until 2004 or so, there were scores of items on the negative list, primarily to prevent the misuse of the facility. But since then, due to relentless pressure from Afghanistan (a single-item agenda in all trade talks), this list has been restricted to only a few items like weapons, alcohol etc. Concessions to Afghanistan are at the direct cost of Pakistan. Take the example of black tea. The quantum of tea officially exported into Afghanistan is enough to give 10 cups of tea a day to all Afghans, including the newborns, regardless of the fact that Afghans don't drink black tea. They prefer green tea. Similarly, the quantity of razor blades that is imported by the Afghans could shave the beard of every Afghan many times over. It's another thing that most Afghans don't shave their beards.

Now all these transit items, released duty-free by Pakistan, come back to the country and destroy the local industry, apart from reducing revenue. I know of Pakistani manufacturers who have given up after urging the government to remove loopholes in the transit trade regime. They have instead devised a strategy to export their products to Afghanistan, knowing fully well that these will be smuggled back to Pakistan. At least in that way they don't have to fight the system and still maintain their production.

Pakistan's loss (in billions) is, in a way, aid to Afghanistan whose government and traders are thriving on duty evaded in Pakistan. The interesting thing is the immense pressure of the US to give maximum facilities to Afghanistan on the pretext of providing it with economic strength. But this is at the expense of Pakistan. As far as America's own contribution towards the economic strength of the region is concerned, it has not budged an inch on the repeated requests of Pakistan to allow market access to the US, especially in the field of textiles. This is despite the fact that America's own textile production forms a very small percentage of its total demand and its market is in any case taken up by China, Mexico etc. No amount of pleadings by Pakistan works when it is the US protecting its own market.

Similarly, no amount of pleadings with Afghanistan works (yes, we plead, although we are the ones allowing transit trade) in convincing its government to accept quantitative restrictions in keeping with its actual needs or allowing Pakistan to collect customs duty on Afghanistan's behalf at the Karachi port so that importing goods through transit trade for smuggling can lose its charm. It refuses to budge, but continues its pressure, now through the US, to enhance the concessions. What is the moral ground for the US to push Pakistan for giving concessions to Afghanistan when Pakistan needs the evaded revenue badly?

So far, it seems that the government and its functionaries are standing up to the pressure that obviously is being applied on Pakistan by the Afghan-India-US nexus. I also know that the current secretary commerce, Zafar Mahmood, has the ability and reputation to withstand pressure. But I am a bit apprehensive about the high-ups of the government. They may succumb to such pressure for short-term gains or lack of comprehension of the ramifications.

In terms of the lack of comprehension of the effects of the decisions, the recent decision of the federal government to enhance salaries of government servants by 50 per cent comes to mind. It appears that it was a decision taken under pressure and in haste. While taking the decision, probably no one pointed out in the cabinet that the impact of a salary hike upon a provincial government would be proportionately far higher, as provincial governments are the main employers of government functionaries. Departments like education, health and the police come under provincial governments. Resultantly, the greatly heralded benefit of the NFC Award, the Rs160 billion additional transfers to the provinces, was wiped out by one flawed and casual decision by the federal government.

One fears that a similar casual attitude might be displayed by the government in the case of allowing transit trade through Wagha. Not only will smuggling increase, but also the $1 billion export to Afghanistan will disappear in thin air. Pakistan's balance sheet with Afghanistan, which currently has drug-cum-Kalashnikov culture, millions of refugees, a flood of terrorists etc. on the debit side and a captive export market on the credit side, will only have debits and no credits if transit trade between Afghanistan and India is allowed through Wagha.
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Roadside bombs kill four Nato troops in Afghanistan

KABUL: Two British and two American soldiers have died in Taliban-style bomb attacks in Afghanistan, Nato and British authorities said Saturday.
One British and one American soldier were killed in two attacks on Saturday while the other troopers died a day earlier, Nato's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and Britain's defence ministry said.

Isaf said the four deaths occurred in three separate attacks with improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, which are the single biggest killer in the war, now nearly nine years old.

The British casualties included a marine from 40 Commando Royal Marines, who died in an explosion in the volatile Sangin district of southern Helmand province on Friday.

The second soldier, from The Royal Dragoon Guards, died in a blast in the Nahr-e Saraj district of Helmand on Saturday, the ministry said.

He was part of a patrol providing security to allow the construction of new roads and security bases, it said.

One of the American casualties also died in the south, the other in the east of the country, an Isaf spokesman told AFP.

US troops have been involved in a major offensive in eastern Kunar province, partnering with Afghan forces to reportedly take on insurgents massed near the Pakistani border.

Little has been said officially about the progress of the operation, though ISAF has announced significant casualties from the region in recent weeks.

Casualty figures for international troops in Afghanistan have spiked in the past two months, with 102 in June, the highest monthly toll since the war began soon after a US-led invasion toppled the Taliban regime in late 2001.

A total of 375 foreign soldiers have lost their lives in conflict in Afghanistan since the start of this year, according to a tally by independent website www.icasualties.org.

Some 320 British forces, personnel and civilians working for the MoD have now died in Afghanistan since 2001. Britain has around 10,000 troops in the country as part of the international force fighting the Taliban.

Britain's Ministry of Defence announced the latest British deaths in London on Saturday. Their families have been informed, it said in a statement.

Earlier this week, a renegade Afghan soldier killed three British troops on an army base in Helmand.

British Prime Minister David Cameron said last month he wants the country's combat troops to withdraw from Afghanistan within five years, without fixing a precise timetable.

Isaf also announced the capture of a Taliban activist whom "intelligence indicated ... was involved in coordinating an attack in Kabul during the upcoming Kabul Conference," it said in a separate statement.

The international conference is set for Tuesday and expected to be attended by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and representatives from more than 70 countries and international organisations.

The force did not give details of the suspects or several others it said had been detained with him.

Nato and the United States have close to 150,000 troops in the country, with 30,000 deployed to the southern Taliban heartland – Helmand and Kandahar provinces – since the beginning of this year.

They are the crux of US President Barack Obama's counter-insurgency effort, which aims to take the fight to the Taliban in an bid to speed an end to the war as public opinion continues to turn against continued commitment.

Obama has said he wants to start drawing down US troops by the middle of 2011, conditional on Afghanistan's own forces being trained to take on responsibility for the country's security. – AFP
 

icecoolben

Regular Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Messages
472
Likes
5
There was a report on India considering providing the ANA with t-55 mbts and training 100,000 recruits in its academy in india. Can anyone tell me how much progress has been achieved?
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
There was a report on India considering providing the ANA with t-55 mbts and training 100,000 recruits in its academy in india. Can anyone tell me how much progress has been achieved?
Where you came across about t-55 to ANA????
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
NATO Intercepts Mullah Omar's Letter

KABUL | JUL 18, 2010
PRINT
SHARE
COMMENTS


NATO today said it had intercepted a letter from Taliban chief Mullah Mohammad Omar, who is hiding in Pakistan, in which he called for any Afghan supporting their country's government to be captured or killed.

Omar had issued the directive in June, NATO spokesman Brigadier Josef Blotz said, adding that the Taliban chief was believed to be in hiding in neighbouring Pakistan.

"The message was from Mullah Omar, who is hiding in Pakistan, to his subordinate commanders in Afghanistan," Blotz said.

He said the order to Taliban fighters was to fight coalition forces to the death, and to capture and kill any Afghan civilian supporting or working for coalition forces or the Afghan government.

It also encouraged the recruitment of any Afghan with access to NATO or US bases in the country, Blotz told reporters.

The one-eyed Omar is a founder of the Taliban and is often referred to as its "supreme commander" or spiritual leader. Many analysts and diplomats have long believed he is in Pakistan, although Islamabad has denied his presence.

The letter, if genuine, appears to be a departure from an earlier directive that urged Taliban not to harm captives.

"Whenever any official, soldier, contractor or worker of the slave government is captured, these prisoners cannot be attacked or harmed," said the August 2009 code of conduct, attributed to Omar.

By contrast, the latest letter says women should also be killed if found to be helping or providing information to coalition forces.

The United States and NATO have almost 150,000 troops deployed to Afghanistan, fighting an insurgency of almost nine years that is becoming more virulent as foreign forces take the fight to the Taliban's heartland.

Casualties among foreign troops have spiked in recent months, with more than 370 killed so far this year, compared to 520 for all of 2009.

Military commanders say the higher death toll was expected as battlefield engagements are escalating with the coalition's attempts to speed an end to the war.
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Suicide Bomb in Kabul Kills 3 Civilians

KABUL | JUL 18, 2010
PRINT
SHARE
COMMENTS


A suicide bombing in eastern Kabul killed three civilians today, two days before an international conference that will host representatives from about 60 nations, an Afghan official said.

Police official Abdul Ghafor Sayedzada said the bomber was on foot and his target was unclear. Other officials said earlier that the attacker was on a bicycle.

Hospitals reported three civilians killed, including a child, plus 23 people wounded, public health official Kabir Amiri said.

University student Tamim Ahmad said he saw a man on foot run up to a passing convoy of international troops and detonate an explosives-laden vest. However, Afghan authorities and NATO said no troops were operating in the area.

Security has been tightened across the capital ahead of Tuesday's Kabul Conference, which will be attended by the heads of NATO and the United Nations and top diplomats, including US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Afghanistan plans ambitious vision for the future


KABUL: Afghanistan will seek greater control of billions in development funds at a major international meeting on Tuesday, promising in return to take on more responsibility for security as well as generate economic growth.

The ambitious pledges will be made at the Kabul Conference, where President Hamid Karzai will plead for more say in $13 billion in international funding to use on programmes he hopes will boost economic growth and lure fighters from the insurgency.

With governments anxious to withdraw from the 150,000-strong NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) sooner than later, they are keen too for assurances the country won't slide back into the isolation that allowed al Qaeda to flourish and launch the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

But the Taliban, treating any talk of withdrawal timetables as signs of weakness, have spurned any peace overtures and insist they will fight until all foreigners leave.

A tightly woven security blanket has been thrown over the city for the conference, Afghanistan's biggest in over three decades and attended by representatives from over 60 countries or international organisations, including UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

"We are 100 percent prepared but this doesn't mean everything will go exactly to plan," said Zemarai Bashary, spokesman for the Interior Ministry which runs the police force.

STREETS DESERTED

The streets of the capital were deserted on Monday as even foreign diplomats found themselves unable to pass through scores of checkpoints that mushroomed overnight.

The Taliban frequently target prestigious government events and last month attacked a national peace meeting being addressed by Karzai, leading to the resignations of the country's interior minister and intelligence chief.

Tuesday's gathering will hear the Afghan government present a grand vision that contains commitments to both its own people and the international community and divided into five areas: funding, governance and law, economic and social development, peace and reconciliation, security and international relations.

Some analysts and diplomats say the commitments are long on hope and short on details, but all agree they come at a crucial time for Afghanistan.

Highlights include:

- Asking donors to increase aid through government channels from the current 20 percent to 50, promising better accounting in return and stepped up prosecution of graft and corruption cases involving officials through special courts.

- Expanding the army to a strength of over 170,000 by Oct. 2011, and the national police to 134,000 as well as the formation of a new local police force in insecure areas.
- Introducing a programme that aims to reintegrate up to 36,000 ex-combatants within five years.

- Increasing collection of domestic revenues to 9.4 pct of GDP by March next year.
Afghanistan's future is not only in its own hands. The bulk of the Taliban leadership have sanctuary in neighbouring Pakistan which has long treated its western neighbour as "strategic depth" in case of fresh conflict with India.

Washington, with most at stake in Afghanistan including two-thirds of the foreign troops and an expense sheet running past $345 billion, hopes agreements such as a truck transit trade deal signed between Islamabad and Kabul on Sunday will promote better ties.

Pakistan trucks are already allowed to pass through Afghanistan to markets in central Asia, but the new deal gives Afghan truckers the same access to India and its ports.

It is this sort of trade and commerce that Karzai hopes will create jobs and improve the lives of ordinary Afghans, who go to the polls in September for parliamentary elections.

The United Nations' top diplomat to the country said Afghanistan was ready to take upon more responsibility for its own affairs and he hoped the international community would recognise that at Tuesday's conference.

"It is a chicken and egg situation, but the chicken is saying 'we are ready to produce an egg'," Staffan de Mistura, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's special representative for Afghanistan, told Reuters in an interview. – Reuters
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
After years of rebuilding, most Afghans lack power



KABUL, Afghanistan — The goal is to transform Afghanistan into a modern nation, fueled by a U.S.-led effort pouring $60 billion into bringing electricity, clean water, jobs, roads and education to this crippled country. But the results so far — or lack of them — threaten to do more harm than good.
The reconstruction efforts have stalled and stumbled at many turns since the U.S. military arrived in 2001, undermining President Barack Obama's vow to deliver a safer, stable Afghanistan capable of stamping out the insurgency and keeping al-Qaida from re-establishing its bases here.
Poppy fields thrive, with each harvest of illegal opium fattening the bankrolls of terrorists and drug barons. Passable roads remain scarce and unprotected, isolating millions of Afghans who remain cut off from jobs and education. Electricity flows to only a fraction of the country's 29 million people.
Case in point: a $100 million diesel-fueled power plant that was supposed to be built swiftly to deliver electricity to more than 500,000 residents of Kabul, the country's largest city. The plant's costs tripled to $305 million as construction lagged a year behind schedule, and now it often sits idle because the Afghans were able to import cheaper power from a neighboring country before the plant came online.
What went wrong?
The failures of the power plant project are, in many ways, the failures of often ill-conceived efforts to modernize Afghanistan:
Crumbling infrastructure, social services
The Afghans fell back into bad habits that favored short-term, political decisions over wiser, long-term solutions. The U.S. wasted money and might by deferring to the looming deadline and seeming desirability of Afghan President Hamid Karzai's 2009 re-election efforts. And a U.S. contractor benefited from a development program that essentially gives vendors a blank check, allowing them to reap millions of dollars in additional profits with no consequences for mistakes.Rebuilding Afghanistan is an international effort, but the U.S. alone has committed $51 billion to the project since 2001, and plans to raise the stakes to $71 billion over the next year — more than it has spent on reconstruction in Iraq since 2003.
Roughly half the money is going to bolster the Afghan army and police, with the rest earmarked for shoring up the country's crumbling infrastructure and inadequate social services.
There have been reconstruction successes, such as rebuilding a national highway loop left crumbling after decades of war, constructing or improving thousands of schools, and creating a network of health clinics.
But the number of Afghans with access to electricity has only inched up from 6 percent in 2001 to an estimated 10 percent now, well short of the development goal to provide power to 65 percent of urban and 25 percent of rural households by the end of this year.
Too many major projects are not delivering what was promised to the people, and rapidly dumping billions of reconstruction dollars into such an impoverished country is in some ways making matters worse, not better, Afghan Finance Minister Omar Zakhilwal says.
The U.S and its partners have wasted billions of dollars and spent billions more without consulting Afghan officials, Zakhilwal says.
All of that has ramped up corruption, undermined efforts to build a viable Afghan government, stripped communities of self-reliance by handing out cash instead of real jobs, and delivered projects like the diesel plant that the country can't afford, he says.
"The indicator of success in Afghanistan has been the wrong indicator ... it has been spending," Zakhilwal says. "It has not been output. It has not been the impact."
That's certainly true when it comes to electricity. Afghanistan consumes less energy per person than any other country in the world, even after years of reconstruction efforts, according to data compiled by the U.S. government.
Satellite pictures taken at night are startling: The country is a sea of darkness, dotted with only flyspecks of light.
Rush to build plant
The $305 million diesel power plant represents the biggest single investment the U.S. has made thus far to light up the country. It has been dubbed the most expensive plant of its type in the world, sitting in one of the world's poorest countries.
In 2007, the U.S. had rushed to build the plant in time to help Karzai win re-election, a hectic and unrealistic timetable embraced by the Afghan president that led to the jarring cost increases.Complaints had piled up about Karzai's inability to deliver reliable power to Kabul, let alone the rest of the country. Afghan voters became increasingly frustrated as they watched billions of dollars flowing into the country for reconstruction, but still couldn't power their homes, hospitals, schools and businesses.
"That question became very loud in many people's mind, and the media and the press, 'They haven't been able to bring power to Kabul,'" says Ahmad Wali Shairzay, Afghanistan's former deputy minister of water and energy.
The U.S. and other international donors had spent years helping Afghanistan develop an energy strategy, one focused on reducing the country's reliance on diesel as a primary power source, since it was too costly and too hard to acquire.

The goal was to buy cheaper electricity from neighboring countries and develop Afghanistan's own natural resources, such as water, natural gas and coal.
All of that was abandoned by the decision by U.S. and Afghan officials to build the diesel plant on the outskirts of Kabul.
Never mind that the plant would make the country more, not less, reliant on its fickle neighbors for power. Never mind that Karzai's former finance minister pleaded with U.S. officials to drop the idea.
The U.S. plowed ahead, turning the project over to a pair of American contractors, including one already scolded for wasting millions in taxpayer dollars on shoddy reconstruction projects. The U.S. team paid $109 million for 18 new diesel engines to be built — more than the original cost of the plant — only to discover rust and corrosion in several of them.
"The Kabul diesel project was sinful," says Mary Louise Vitelli, a U.S. energy consultant who focused on power development in Afghanistan for six years, working with the U.S., the World Bank and as a special adviser to Karzai's government.
James Bever, the U.S. Agency for International Development's director of the Afghanistan-Pakistan task force, says it's unfair to label the project a failure. Even with the problems, he notes, the plant provides Afghanistan with an additional power source.
"You know, there's a formula in this business. You can have it fast, you can have it high quality, and you can have it low cost. But you cannot have all three at the same time," Bever says.
Unfulfilled promises
For Afghans, each nightfall is a reminder of promises not kept.
When darkness comes, there is not much Abdul Rahim and others living in southwest Kabul can do. Without lights, they cannot work, and their children cannot play. Rahim's children sometimes sit around a kerosene lamp to do their homework, their books laid flat in a circle around the flame's flickering light."The people who are living in this area, they don't have electricity and it is dark everywhere," Rahim says. "Day and night, we are counting the minutes to when we will finally get electricity."
The setbacks stretch far beyond Kabul.
Despite spending millions of dollars over more than six years studying the nation's natural gas fields in the north, no plan is in place to tap that substantial resource for power. And a huge project to expand hydropower in the south that already has cost about $90 million is delayed by continued fighting in the region, which has long been a Taliban stronghold.
An estimated nine out of 10 Afghans still live without access to power, which is concentrated in highly populated areas like Kabul and Herat in the west.
Only 497,000 of the country's 4.8 million households are connected to what passes for a national power grid, despite more than $1.6 billion already spent on energy projects, according to data from the country's utility corporation.
The system is more like a disconnected patchwork of pockets of available electricity, serving different regions of the country, some with hydropower, some with power imported from nearby countries and some with diesel-generated power.
So Afghans improvise at home, and many hotels and businesses — even embassies and international agencies — rely on their own generators for power. And some sell electricity to their neighbors.
Take Qurban Ali's old, crank-operated diesel generator, which coughs and belches black smoke before the engine starts running. Ali's generator provides electricity to more than 100 houses in the Dasht-i-barchi neighborhood in Kabul, where Rahim lives.
He estimates about 1,000 small, private diesel generators like his keep the lights on in more than 4,000 homes in the area. And they'll keep using the generators until transmission lines are in place and the Afghan government follows through on a promise to streamline power hookups for customers.
So the citizens of Kabul wait.
"Right now, we are hopeless to have electricity," Ali says.
Generators a costly, short-term solution
Afghans who can afford it pay private generator owners like Ali by the light bulb, about $2.60 a month for each bulb hanging from the ceiling. It costs nearly $11 a month to power a television. The average income in Afghanistan is a little more than a dollar a day.
More below
advertisement | ad info

sponsored links

marketplace
"We don't have the ability and cannot afford to pay more money for each light we use," says Rahim, whose wife and nine children share a home with his brother, sister-in-law and their nine children.
When Ronald Neumann, then-U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, signed an agreement with the Afghan government to use diesel to bring more electricity to Kabul, the city wasn't completely without power. But it was close.
In the winter, Afghans resorted to burning tires and goat dung to keep warm, experiencing a scant six hours of daylight each day.
Some Afghan leaders, led by then Minister of the Economy Jalil Shams, had pushed for additional generator power in Kabul. The U.S. rejected that approach, Neumann says, because it considered generators a costly, short-term solution.
Building transmission lines to carry inexpensive imported power from Uzbekistan and other northern neighbors would be a much better investment, Neuman says he initially thought. But he changed his mind after a study by Black & Veatch, a U.S. contractor that builds power plants around the world, argued the transmission lines wouldn't bring enough electricity to Kabul or be completed soon enough.
As it turned out, those transmission lines were finished first and provide the main source of power, instead of the $305 million plant.
Shams says the U.S. warmed to the idea of the diesel project after he told Neumann that Iran had agreed to cover most of the cost of a used diesel plant the Afghan government hoped to buy and reassemble in Kabul.
"I had offers in hand that were $90 million," Shams says. "On that basis of that offer of $90 million, we were thinking of having a good, used plant — not a 100 percent new one."
But Neumann and Karzai's government reached their own agreement, which called for $100 million to buy the new diesel engines. The Afghans would cover $20 million and commit to developing a reliable way to collect utility payments from customers.
Karzai was briefed on the project and gave it his full support, even though it contradicted his country's energy strategy by nearly doubling the amount of the country's power generated by diesel engines.
Bringing 100 million watts of power to Kabul could certainly help turn public opinion in Karzai's favor. The diesel engines and generators would be installed by December 2008, U.S. officials said, in plenty of time for Karzai to take credit for the added power before voters cast their ballots.
"We wanted people feeling optimistic and hopeful going into the elections process," says William Wood, who became U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan after Neumann departed in early 2007.
More below
advertisement | ad info



sponsored links

marketplace
Cost increases
Today, the diesel plant — which was not ready to be turned over to the Afghan government until May 2010 — runs mostly for short periods, producing only a fraction of its promised 105 million watts of power.
"This power plant is too expensive for us to use," says Shojauddin Ziaie, Afghanistan's current deputy minister of water and energy. "We will only use it in special cases when the main power supply gets cut off or if we face problems with that supply."
Black & Veatch, the U.S. contractor that swayed Neumann, oversaw the project for USAID as part of a joint $1.4 billion contract with The Louis Berger Group, another American contractor.
As the plant's costs and schedule veered wildly off course, the payouts to Black & Veatch also ballooned.
USAID refused to disclose the amounts paid as costs increased, but contract records obtained by The Associated Press show expenses and fees paid to the company tripled from $15.3 million in July 2007, when the project was estimated at $125.8 million overall, to $46.2 million in October 2009, when the price tag reached $301 million.
Among the costs: $7.8 million to clear and prepare the project site picked by Karzai. Building housing for workers: $2.7 million. Building a substation to connect the power to Kabul's grid: $15 million. Building the main plant: $62 million. And another $20 million went to transport materials, including flying the massive diesel engines in from Germany, an expense not included in the original project estimate.
Greg Clum, a Black & Veatch vice president, defended the project, calling the plant a "critical piece in our ability to help Afghanistan get its legs under itself and to be able to become a sustainable, growing economic player in the region."
Black & Veatch and The Louis Berger group landed the contract in 2006.
An expensive gift
The next year, congressional investigators chastised Berger's work on an earlier contract to build schools and health clinics, accusing the company of poor performance and misrepresenting work.
USAID also found problems with the two companies under their current contract, which an internal assessment found put too much risk on the agency and too little on the contractors, who had no incentive to control spending.
In March 2009, with more than half of the $1.4 billion already committed, the agency said it had "lost confidence" in the companies' abilities to do reconstruction work in Afghanistan. Yet the contract continues, with both the agency and the contractors saying management has improved.
"We had a rough patch," says Larry Walker, president of Louis Berger. He defended his company's record in Afghanistan "in the face of heavy security challenges."
More below
advertisement | ad info

sponsored links

marketplace
Neumann says it's too early to argue that the diesel project was a mistake.
"If the Afghans are able to handle distribution and handle the costs of running the plant and maintaining it then, in the long term, it may very well be judged a success. If they fail on that, then clearly it will not be," he says.
Shairzay, the former deputy energy minister, says Afghans view the diesel plant as a nice, expensive gift.
"Instead of giving me a small car, you give me really a Jaguar," he says. "And it will be up to me whether I use it, or just park it and look at it."
___
Associated Press investigative researcher Randy Herschaft in New York contributed to this report.
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
US forces misfiring in Afghanistan

By Gurmeet Kanwal

Karzai appears to have lost confidence in the US commitment to comprehensively defeat the Taliban.

When the next Afghanistan Conference begins at Kabul on July 20, the United States and its NATO/ISAF allies will have little to show by way of success in counter-insurgency operations. Eight and a half years after the US and its allies effected a regime change in Afghanistan and six months after President Barack Obama decided to send more American forces to the beleaguered nation, Afghanistan remains mired in instability.
The Lashkar-e-Toiba has joined hands with the Taliban-al-Qaeda combine to fight the allies and wanton acts of violence are a daily occurrence. With neither side making major gains, the emerging situation is best described as a strategic stalemate.
Consequent to Obama's carefully considered 'surge', there are now 93,000 US troops in Afghanistan. This figure is set to rise to 1,05,000 by the end of the summer, but even then the coalition forces will still remain thin on the ground. While it is too early to draw firm conclusions, success in recent operations has eluded the allies. Combined US and British operations in Helmand province — the nucleus of Afghanistan's narcotics-driven terrorism — succeeded in driving the Taliban out of its strongholds but only temporarily. Violence continues to persist in Marja despite large-scale Marine Corps operations. Major military operations in the Taliban heartland of Kandahar have been delayed. Inevitably, it will be a long and bloody battle.

Arduous task
The Indian experience has been that it takes a ratio of 1:30 — that is, the sustained deployment of 30 security forces personnel for every terrorist — to gain and maintain military control over an area affected by insurgency or rural terrorism. As has been witnessed in the Kashmir Valley, as soon as the troops pack their tents and go away to launch operations in another area, the terrorist groups make a triumphant comeback.
They once again lay down the law through fatwas, collect 'taxes', extort money for unhindered trade and dispense their peculiar brand of justice. Since the Afghan state cannot effectively deliver governance and justice, the people grudgingly look to the Taliban.

Urban areas require an even more concentrated deployment and the local civilian police and para-military forces are much better equipped to handle these rather than regular armies. Despite the best efforts of the allies, the Afghan National Army (currently numbering 1,10,000; target 2,60,000) and the Afghan police have failed to acquire the professional ethos and motivation levels that are necessary to deal with jihadi extremism. Training standards in small team counter-insurgency operations are low and cutting edge junior leadership is still lacking. They are also short on numbers as recruitment rates are low and desertions are high. Meanwhile, the Taliban and al-Qaeda seem to have no difficulty in recruiting an endless stream of suicide bombers from the thousands of madrassas astride the Af-Pak border. In fact, they pay them monthly wages that are almost on par with those of the Afghan army.

Crossed wires between the Obama administration and President Hamid Karzai and tensions between Karzai and the Pakistan leadership, as well as the Pakistan army and the ISI's proclivity to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds, have weakened the overall response to the terror tactics of the opposing forces, which are far more united and are sharpening their skills at coordinating their operations more effectively while carefully avoiding detection of their hideouts and communications by the sophisticated satellite, electronic, UAV- and ground-based surveillance systems available to the allies.
President Karzai appears to have lost confidence in the US commitment to comprehensively defeat the Taliban. Consequently, he has begun negotiations with the Taliban and their Pakistani handlers. Though even the Pakistanis are willing to go along with Karzai's strategy of talking to the so-called 'good' Taliban, which has been endorsed by the US, there is widespread disagreement over who the good Taliban are. For example, the Pakistanis are keen to include the Haqqani faction in the talks, but the Afghans and the US are firmly opposed to Sirajuddin Haqqani. All the international and domestic players involved in the complex web of Afghan politics want a direct part in the negotiations and are unwilling to accept a secondary role. Many are conducting their own negotiations directly or through proxies
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Key Afghan conference to be held under tight security in Kabul

Kabul, July 19, PTI:

Amid a spurt in suicide bombings by Taliban, nearly 60 world leaders, including External Affairs Minister S M Krishna and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, will tomorrow discuss Afghanistan's future and chart out security and developmental needs of the war-torn country.

Amid tight security, the world leaders will brainstorm here on the future of Afghanistan, which stands at a "critical turning point" in its efforts to achieve lasting peace, security and stability.

The International Conference on Afghanistan is the largest gathering of foreign leaders in the war-torn nation since 1970s and will take place amid a spurt in suicide bombings and attacks by Taliban on US-led NATO forces, which has suffered the deadliest single month in June when its 79 soldiers lost their lives.

Krishna, who is heading the Indian delegation, will attend the conference and is expected to express India's commitment to providing all necessary help Afghanistan wants for its nation-building, official sources told PTI.

Krishna, who met Karzai here immediately after his arrival, backed the Afghan president's efforts to ensure peace, security and development in the region.

He is also expected to convey India's support to Karzai government's efforts for reintegration of Taliban elements if that leads to "genuine peace", the sources said.

India does not see anything wrong if individual Taliban cadres are rehabilitated after they give up violence, abide by the Afghan Constitution and commit to respect human rights, including women's rights.

However, any reconciliation with Taliban as a group or entity is seen by India as alarming.

The Kabul conference is taking place at a time when the Karzai government is working on a Peace and Reconciliation scheme aimed at bringing Taliban elements into the mainstream.

The conference is a follow-up to a London summit in January, when donors pledged some USD 160 million for Afghanistan's plans to reintegrate and create jobs for Taliban fighters who renounce violence.

Hosted by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, the meeting is expected to deliberate and endorse an Afghan government-led plan to improve security, ensure good governance and crack down on corruption that has plagued the country.

The Kabul conference is taking place at a time when the Karzai government is working on a Peace and Reconciliation scheme aimed at bringing Taliban elements into the mainstream.

Facing nine years of Taliban insurgency, Karzai is pressing to reconcile with all the insurgent groups, including the dreaded Haqqani network and Taliban no. 2 Mullah Baradar, as a way to end the war and consolidate his own grip on power.
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Iranian Minister to attend Kabul conference today


MNA | Tehran

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki will head to Kabul on Tuesday to participate in the international conference on Afghanistan.

Kabul will host an international conference on July 20, where senior officials from the international community would be getting together to discuss Afghanistan's priorities on different areas. The conference will be attended by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

Mottaki has been invited by his Afghan counterpart Zalmai Rassoul to the conference.

The conference will also be attended by senior officials from the United Nations, the US, Russia, Britain, Germany, some other European countries, and Afghanistan's neighbours, as well as officials from international organisations, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

Afghan officials have pinned great hope on this conference because the European countries and the US have postponed delivering aid to Afghanistan for the reconstruction of this country till after this conference.

A series of international conferences were held previously in different countries including Germany, Japan, France, and Britain with the purpose of promoting security in Afghanistan and reconstructing the war-ravaged country. The Kabul Conference is a follow-up to the London conference held in January where international community had renewed its support to Afghanistan and agreed to channel 50 per cent of the donors' fund through the Afghan Government.
 

icecoolben

Regular Member
Joined
Aug 14, 2009
Messages
472
Likes
5
Hey, there was talk about India providing T-55 tanks and providing 100,000 ANA forces training, how s that progressing?
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Hamid Karzai calls for Nato troop withdrawal by 2014

Hamid Karzai has said he is determined his Afghan forces will be ready to take responsibility from foreign troops for fighting the Taliban within four years.

The Afghan president spoke in front of more than 40 foreign ministers meeting to agree a tentative timetable for Kabul to take the lead in building and securing Afghanistan.
Opening the Kabul international conference, Mr Karzai said: "I remain determined that our Afghan national security forces will be responsible for all military and law enforcement operations throughout our country by 2014."The handover process could begin as soon as next year.
The conference, held amid tight security in the Afghan capital, set the beginnings of a transition allowing foreign troops to switch from the front line to training roles as the Afghan army and police grows.
Mr Karzai described the Taliban-led insurgency as a "vicious common enemy which violates every Islamic and international norm".
The conference has been billed as the beginning of a "Kabul process" which will see Afghanistan weaning itself from international dependence and given a greater say in how donor money is spent.
After eight years of ineffective government, the event is seen as a critical chance for Hamid Karzai to win over his own disillusioned population.
He promised legislation to cut rampant corruption and a communiqué will announce targets for growing agriculture, the economy, education and reforming the civil service.
Mr Karzai also wants to increase the amount of aid money being controlled by the Afghan government to rise to 50 per cent from the current 20 per cent.
Liam Fox, Defence Secretary, said at the weekend that British troops were scheduled to leave the front lines by 2014.
William Hague, Foreign Secretary, told the conference the province-by-province handover to Afghan troops should be "gradual and determined by Afghan capacity, but should be able to start soon." He said any solution to the eight-year-long insurgency required a "just and inclusive political settlement".
Britain has 9,500 troops in Afghanistan and has lost 322 since operations began in 2001. Casualty rates have accelerated in the past 18 months.
Barack Obama has previously said American troops numbers would start to gradually reduce from July 2011.
Hillary Clinton, American secretary of state, told the conference the July 2011 date "captures both our sense of urgency and the strength of our resolve".
"The transition process is too important to push off indefinitely.
"But this date is the start of a new phase, not the end of our involvement. We have no intention of abandoning our long-term mission of achieving a stable, secure, peaceful Afghanistan."
She gave support to a plan to coax 36,000 fighters to lay down their arms if they "renounce violence and al Qaeda", but said any peace settlement must not sacrifice the rights of women who faced repression under the Taliban regime.
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Towards new Afghanistan

Come down hard on radical Taliban groups

TUESDAY'S Kabul conference of Afghanistan's donor countries clearly brought out at least two possibilities: handing over of the country's security to the Afghans by 2014 and induction of 36,000 former Taliban militants into Afghanistan's regular forces. By July 2011, when the US-led foreign troops will begin to withdraw from Afghanistan, it will be ready with its army and police force to independently take care of law and order in almost every province. A mechanism is going to be set up to identify the areas where Afghanistan's security forces will be deployed in the beginning to replace the foreign troops. President Hamid Karzai seems to be confident of his own security forces to be in a position soon to take on the challenge posed by the militants. His confidence stems from the support his strategy for new Afghanistan has got from the international community, which wants peace to return to the war-torn country as quickly as possible.

President Karzai has succeeded in convincing the US and other donor countries that the cause of peace demands that the Taliban factions which renounce violence must be inducted into the government. His idea is that the strategy will weaken the remaining Taliban groups against whom the fight will continue till they are finally defeated. After winning over some of the Taliban elements to his side and the roadmap getting ready for the departure of all the foreign forces, it will be easier for him to convince the Afghan masses that those indulging in militancy are the enemies of the people.

However, President Karzai's idea of establishing peace may prove to be useless unless he succeeds in convincing the international community that the terrorist bases on the other side of the Durand Line — Pakistan's tribal areas — are not eliminated soon. The ISI-patronised Haqqani faction of the Taliban, besides the one led by Mullah Omar (no one knows where he is), is unlikely to be inducted in the Karzai government. These destructive elements must be handled ruthlessly so that the Afghan peace process goes on undisturbed. India, which is involved in a big way in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, will have to continue to remind the world that there should be no let up in the drive against the terrorists of every hue and persuasion, based in the Af-Pak region.
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Afghan problem: for a regional approach


Chinmaya R. Gharekhan & Karl F. Inderfurth
If conditions can be created that would permit Afghanistan to revert to its traditional neutrality, it ought to help in significantly reducing tensions in the region.
Ambassador Robert Blackwill is well known among the 'strategic' community in India as a person who contributed to the development of India- United States relations during his stay in New Delhi as the American ambassador to India, which also made him knowledgeable about what is now referred to, unfortunately, as the AfPak region. He is known for his bold, often unconventional and 'out of the box,' thinking on issues of peace and security. Hence, his views on how the U.S. should tackle the Afghan quagmire must be taken serious note of.

In an article in the Financial Times of July 21, Mr. Blackwill has argued that the current strategy of counter-insurgency will fail and the U.S. will not succeed in persuading enough and weighty Taliban leaders to join in a reconciliation exercise. Since the U.S. can neither win the war nor withdraw precipitously, the only alternative is to arrange for what he calls a de facto partition of Afghanistan. The southern and eastern parts of the country would be surrendered to the Pashtuns which, in effect, would mean the Taliban. The U.S. and a coalition of "like-minded countries" would establish a separate regime in the non-Pashtun north and west of the country. The U.S. and others would maintain a more or less permanent presence of about 50,000 troops and air power to continue to harass the al-Qaeda elements in the other half and across the Durand Line as well as prevent the Pashtun and the Taliban from conquering the north and the west.

Such a solution, he admits, will leave many non-Pashtuns at the mercy of the Pashtuns in the southern part but he writes that off as an "unfortunate but unavoidable" consequence, as he does the complete denial of human rights to women in Pashtunland. He even treats the fragmentation of Pakistan, a possible result of his solution, with equanimity. Why should the U.S., he asks, be more concerned with Pakistan's territorial integrity than General Kayani and his colleagues? And so on.

Mr. Blackwill's diagnosis of the ailments afflicting Afghanistan contains many ground truths, but his proposed cure — a de facto partition of the country between the Pashtun south and the non-Pashtun north and west — is infinitely worse than the disease. Firstly, it smacks of a colonial attitude. Instead of the classic "divide and rule," he is recommending "divide and depart;" the British practised them both in the sub-continent with disastrous consequences. Ahmed Rashid writing in an article in Financial Times on August 4 says: "Partition will lead to worse horrors than witnessed at India's division in 1947."

Secondly, while we do not speak for our respective governments, it is unthinkable that either the U.S. or India, or indeed any other "like-minded" country will look favourably at this plan and join in such blatant interference in Afghanistan's internal situation and become parties to a civil conflict. Thirdly, women in the Taliban territory will be doomed forever to a life of denial of all human rights. Fourthly, it completely ignores the fact that Afghans of all ethnicities have a strong sense of nationhood, despite ethnic divergences; if the Afghans wanted to partition their country, they would have done so long ago and on their own terms. Ahmed Rashid cites, in the same article, several previous attempts by the Soviet Union, Iran as well as by Pakistan to divide Afghanistan on ethnic lines, all turned down by Afghans of all ethnicities.

According to Rashid, in 1996, when the Taliban initially failed to take the north, Pakistan's ISI suggested that the Pashtun group create its own state in the south. But the Taliban refused, despite its dependence on the ISI. And lastly, a partition will hasten the very result that it is meant to delay and avoid, namely, a civil war-type situation. Afghanistan's immediate and near-neighbours would feel compelled to be dragged into the vortex. To quote Rashid again: "It would endanger Pakistan, encouraging some 40 million Pashtuns in Pakistan to link up with some 15 million Pashtun brothers in Afghanistan and forge an extremist state that gives refuge to terrorists."

And the consequences for India will be simply intolerable.

Mr. Blackwill is conscious that his prescription is not ideal; he only offers it because he sees no better or less bad alternative. But there is another, practicable though not an easy alternative approach that we have advocated in the past. We are convinced that what is needed is a regional approach to Afghanistan's problems, to address the multiple crises emanating from the region — terrorism, crime, drugs, refugees. The solution lies in less or zero interference, not more, and certainly not military intervention, in Afghanistan's affairs.

It is a historical fact that Afghanistan enjoyed relative stability and even prosperity when it practised, and was allowed by its neighbours and external powers to practise, a kind of neutrality in its foreign policy. If somehow conditions can be created that would permit Afghanistan to once again revert to its traditional neutrality, it ought to help in significantly reducing tensions in the region. This might appear to be a difficult or impossible goal to achieve in the prevailing climate of hatred and suspicions, but that is no reason for not considering it and working for it.

We believe that someone, preferably the Secretary-General of the United Nations, should engage in a diplomatic exercise to hold talks with all the parties and states concerned to establish a consensus, however defined, on arriving at a compact of mutual non-intervention and non-interference among all of Afghanistan's neighbours. The 1962 Declaration on the Neutrality of Laos provides one possible model and there could be others. The Bonn Agreement of December 2001, which brought into being the provisional government headed by Hamid Karzai, specifically tasks the United Nations to 'guarantee' non-interference in Afghanistan's internal affairs; thus the Secretary-General already has the necessary mandate to undertake the necessary consultations. The process, which would be quite protracted, should eventually consummate in an international conference where all the neighbours of Afghanistan would solemnly commit themselves not to interfere or intervene in its internal affairs, as well as not to support in any way — politically, materially or militarily — any group or faction within Afghanistan. Afghanistan, for its part, would solemnly undertake to abjure forever from inviting any foreign elements to intervene in its internal problems.

The final document would be witnessed by the five permanent members of the Security Council as well as by the relevant foreign powers and would be registered with the United Nations. In addition, the participants at the proposed conference would need to take one further step — to establish an international commission to supervise the implementation of the document. A monitoring group and/or a complaints procedure would need to be established. It would be essential to create some mechanism that could inspire confidence among the signatories about compliance by all of them with their commitments.

As mentioned above, the proposal which we are putting forward is not an easy one. It will call for a sustained effort over many months. The then special envoy of the then Secretary General took several years to persuade all the parties to agree to the terms of the Geneva Agreement of 1988 which brought an end to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The challenges underlying our proposal must not deter the required effort and political will. We are convinced that it is definitely preferable either to the imposed and bloody partition, de facto or otherwise, of Afghanistan or to the alternative of precipitate withdrawal or open-ended military engagement of foreign forces in the country.

(Chinmaya R. Gharekhan served as India's special envoy for West Asia and is a former U.N. under secretary general. Karl F. Inderfurth served as U.S. assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs from 1997-2001 and is a professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.)
 

ajtr

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Oct 2, 2009
Messages
12,038
Likes
723
Pakistan's options in Afghanistan
—Shahid Ilyas

It seems that Pakistan's ability to sustain its support to the Afghan insurgents is very limited, and its chances of success almost nil. We have to find ways to safeguard our interests through more acceptable means

"Pakistan denies Afghanistan transit for Indian trucks," says a news report. "India to build Afghanistan's parliament house," says another report. "Pakistan's intelligence agency is directing Taliban attacks on western targets in Afghanistan," says yet another. "New Delhi has already invested $ 1.2 billion in roads, electrical lines and other infrastructure that is expected to hit $ 4 billion," another source states.

These are some of the news coming out of Afghanistan and this is the context in which Pakistan would like to befriend Afghanistan to the detriment of India. What conclusions can we draw from this? What is the logic put forward by Pakistan to convince Afghanistan that it should consider a serious friendship?

Pakistan believes that close friendship between India and Afghanistan is against its national interests. Therefore, the process of Afghan-Indian friendship has to be halted and reversed. Pakistan has two options to achieve its objectives. It could evolve a strategy that aims at forging brotherly relations with the Afghanistan we see today. This will necessitate some sincere help in Afghan stability and reconstruction. Secondly, it will necessitate a change in perceptions with regard to Afghan-Indian relations. This means the recognition of the fact that sovereign states have the right to choose their friends. If Afghanistan and India are interested in mutual friendship and cooperation, they have the sovereign right to do so, and no other actor has the right to sabotage that friendship. And, finally, Pakistan's wish to befriend Afghanistan will necessitate tangible measures on the part of the former that result in the birth of a genuine belief in Afghanistan, the US and India that it has stopped facilitating the ongoing insurgency in Afghanistan.

The second option available to Pakistan is to continue behaving in the way it has been alleged to have in its relations with Afghanistan. Pakistan is seen by Kabul, Washington and Delhi as the biggest hurdle in Afghanistan's peace and reconstruction. It is accused of funnelling support to the Afghan Taliban in their effort to topple the incumbent government in Kabul.

Pakistan's policy towards Afghanistan is determined by its fears about two factors, which are inter-related:

1. A stable Afghanistan, run by a secular government, is most likely to renew its claims over the territories between the Khyber Pass and River Indus, the area that is predominantly inhabited by ethnic Pakhtuns. This region was annexed by Britain during its empire in the subcontinent with the aim of making it a buffer — together with Afghanistan — between itself and the Russian empire. No Afghan government, including the Taliban, has ever recognised this area as constituting a legitimate part of Pakistan.

2. The second is the Indian involvement in Afghanistan, and its alleged support to the Baloch insurgency. Because of Pakistan's track record of fuelling insurgencies in parts of India, including Kashmir, the Pakistani establishment believes that India uses Afghanistan to support the different insurgencies on its soil.

The international community seems determined to make sure that Afghanistan emerges as a relatively stable country, its soil is not used for attacks on the West, and provision of basic services to its population. Towards that end, Afghanistan has made substantial progress. Road infrastructure has been built, schools and universities have been made functional, more than three-quarters of Afghans have access to health facilities, electricity has been provided to most urban centres, new hydroelectric power plants are being built and agriculture has been revived. Moreover, NATO has been working on training the Afghan security forces. According to the Long War Journal, as of December 2008, the Afghan National Army (ANA) stood at approximately 79,000 soldiers, 52,000 of whom were engaged in combat operations. During the spring and summer of 2008, the ANA led 62 percent of operations. According to the same journal, on September 10, 2008, the international community's Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board approved the increase of the ANA from 80,000 to 122,000 soldiers. With an additional 12,000 trainee, transient, hospitalised, and student personnel included, this accounts for a total strength of 134,000. This expansion project is currently underway and is going to be completed by the year 2013.

Apart from increasing the capacity of infrastructure and security forces, the US president has unequivocally stated that he was misunderstood regarding his Afghan strategy and his mention of the 'withdrawal' of US forces in 2011. Clear messages are propping up from US policy making circles, including the White House, State Department and the Pentagon, to the effect that the US did not mean complete withdrawal, rather it meant the beginning of a 'process' of withdrawal. The US government has also made clear that it intends to finish the job in Afghanistan before it contemplates a complete withdrawal. So, the question arises, what if President Obama declares the promised beginning of withdrawal by announcing that, say, 3,000 US troops will return home by the end of 2011 and another 1,200 by the year 2015? Will that not mean that he met his promise regarding the beginning of 'drawing down' of US troops? And make no mistake, this is precisely what the US intends to do. So we do not need to wait in the wings with our Taliban proxies for the US troops to withdraw to move in to establish the 'Islamic Caliphate of Afghanistan'.

And finally, how far are we economically and militarily strong to sustain support for our Taliban proxies in Afghanistan? Unfortunately, the Taliban (Punjabi Taliban included) are hitting the Pakistani state harder than they hit Afghanistan. With the increasing capacities of the Afghan security forces and the sustained support to and presence in Afghanistan of the international forces, the Taliban's capability to operate in Afghanistan is very limited. They are turning inward and are increasingly targeting the Pakistani state and society for its support to the war on terror.

It seems that Pakistan's ability to sustain its support to the Afghan insurgents is very limited, and its chances of success almost nil. We have to find ways to safeguard our interests through more acceptable means. The best way seems to be for Pakistan to recognise the ground realities in our region and make sincere efforts towards forging friendly relations with Afghanistan. This will entail recognition of the fact that a more stable and prosperous Afghanistan offers an opportunity to Pakistan to pursue its 'Durand Line case' with a more enlightened and progressive government in Kabul. The two countries, through diplomacy, should be in a position to find a solution to the issue that is acceptable to the people and governments of the two countries. A zero-sum game has already harmed the two countries tremendously.

The writer is a member of the Pakhtunkhwa Peace Forum and a freelance columnist hailing from Waziristan. He can be reached at [email protected]
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest Replies

Global Defence

New threads

Articles

Top