The Afghanistan Map Of War
The Kabul government is preparing for a big advance in northern Afghanistan.
National Security Forces have been involved in intense clashes with the Taliban in 7 provinces.
At the moment security forces have gained round only in Faryab province. The Taliban has now started a new offensive in the Badakhshan province by taking control of the “Kala” military base, seizing several checkpoints and capturing 100 pro-government fighters. Islamic State has also participated in clashes at the Afghanistan-Turkmenistan border.
- July 20-27, The operations of Afghan National Security Forces against the Taliban are underway in 7 provinces of Afghanistan. The attacks on the positions of militants were performed in Takhar, Kunduz, Faryab, Nangarhar, Sar-e Pul, Uruzgan and Logar. The Afghan Ministry of Internal Affairs reported government forces killed 20 and detained 2 militants. Also, a serviceman of the Afghan National Security Forces was killed. The most intense clashes were observed in Kunduz, Nangarhar and Faryab (on July 13, Taliban forces captured 22 checkpoints and over 40 settlements there). At the moment, Afghan National Security Forces have liberated a part of the Faryab province and destroyed 2 Taliban bases in the Almar district.
- July 24-25, Taliban militants along with the “Unity of Islamic Jihad” took control of the “Kala” military base in the Wurduj district of the Badakhshan province. 25 Afghan servicemen were either killed or wounded, 100 were taken prisoner. Militants captured 10 Kalashnikov LMG, 90 assault rifles, 2 mortars and some other equipment. The Taliban stated it had taken control of 6 check points and 12 settlements around the military base. However, this information wasn’t confirmed by Kabul. Earlier, the acting governor of Badakhshan Shah Wali Adib was alarmed by the situation and asked the central government to send reinforcements.
- July 26, The chief of the Badakhshan police General Abdul Wahid Baba Jan accused captured “Kala” servicemen of making a secret deal with the Taliban. According to him Kala servicemen had enough arms and equipment to defend the military base, but they preferred to make a deal with militants.
- July 27, The Taliban released the 100 servicemen captured after taking control of “Kala”. The event confirms that General Abdul Wahid Baba Jan’s allegation that they didn’t try their best in clashes against the militants. At the very least, it indicates low morale among the Afghan forces.
- July 27, The Ministry of Defense of Afghanistan has been preparing a military operation in the northern part of the country: Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Balkh and Baghlan. The operation is a result of numerous reports from localized pro-government forces about the lack of support from Kabul.
- July 1-27, Islamic State has been advancing at the Afghanistan-Turkmenistan border since early July. 3000 to 4000 of IS militants are concentrated in the region. According to official reports, at least 12 border guard servicemen were killed there. Different reports state a number over 80 Turkmenistan servicemen killed. It’s possible that Islamic State is there is to capture gas fields of Turkmenistan.
Despite Afghan government’s official reports that clashes are underway in 7 provinces, there are many more zones of military activity in the country. The Taliban has party taken control of other Afghan provinces too. Attacks on military servicemen and policemen constantly come around the south, east and central regions. 4100 Afghan National Security Forces servicemen were killed and 7800 wounded since the start of 2015. Kabul’s big advance in the north is a reaction to numerous requests of local authorities and an overdue attempt to get the situation under the control. However, the events in the Badakhshan province on July 24-25 indicate that government forces have most likely been losing the will to fight against the Taliban.
Islamic State militants have increased activity at the Afghanistan-Turkmenistan border. From 12 to 70 Turkmenistan bodyguards have been already killed since early July. The terrorists aim to capture gas fields of Turkmenistan. There are two opportunities for IS there:
- To create an attack corridor through the border
- To “infiltrate” the border under the cover of local fights and attack the border guard from two sides (IS uses this strategy regularly)
The increase in IS activity is synchronized with signing of The Iran Nuclear Deal and is
clearly pushing the USA’s interests: to prevent the supply of Turkmen gas to China (through TAPI or Uzbekistan) and redirect the flows to the Europe. Iran will replace Russia in energy supplies, enforcing the USA for further anti-Russian actions in the central Europe.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-afghanistan-map-of-war/5465309
Afghan power play: It was never really about Karzai, it’s about Ghani
Western media reports alleging that former Afghan President Hamid Karzai is conspiring to usurp power in Kabul do not make sense. Karzai’s sophisticated intellect and vast experience in statecraft will tell him that without American backing, he cannot hope to survive in power.
Karzai’s comeback to power is impossible without American support. Now, why would America support him?
Karzai was not even on talking terms with President Barack Obama when his presidency ended. Karzai deliberately stalled on the US-Afghan security pact, which was intended to give legal underpinning for the establishment of American military bases in Afghanistan.
He wanted all US military operations on Afghan soil to be brought under Kabul’s supervision. Karzai and Iraq’s Nouri al-Maliki are chips of the same block.
Besides, any usurper in Kabul will not enjoy international legitimacy and Karzai is intensely conscious of his standing in the international community. He is a national figure – even a historical figure – and why would he diminish himself as a factional leader in a fragmented country?
Above all, being a staunch nationalist, Karzai cannot compromise on Afghanistan’s unity and integrity, whereas, he’d know that an illegitimate set-up in Kabul will only the open door to large-scale external interference.
All this, therefore, raises the question as to who stands to gain from the orchestrated media campaign against Karzai. The heart of the matter is that the real target of this US media campaign is not Karzai himself – it is actually President Ashraf Ghani.
The western media campaign aims at rattling Ghani, making him feel insecure, and reminding him constantly that without American protection he cannot survive in power for even a single day in Kabul.
The point is, Ghani is quintessentially an American creation. He polled only 3% votes in the 2009 presidential election and yet he managed to win the 2014 election because Washington wanted this former World Bank official to succeed Karzai, estimating that lacking any form of political base himself, he would be utterly dependent on the US support. Without US prodding, Pakistan wouldn’t have delivered Pashtun votes in such large numbers to Ghani.
But then, the US will still not take chances with Ghani.
If the Karzai saga taught Washington anything, it is that the Afghans are a fiercely independent and proud people and they do not like being mentored – and worse still, to be seen as the lackey of a foreign power.
Having said that, the US’ main agenda in Afghanistan continues to be the establishment of long-term military presence in that country.
The new Cold War with Russia, the acceleration of China’s Belt and Road initiatives in Central Asia, the growing Sino-Russian entente in Eurasia, Iran’s rise, the potential threat to North Caucasus and Xinjiang (“soft underbelly” of Russia and China) posed by the forces of radical Islam – all these make Afghanistan a crucial theatre in the US’ regional strategies.
On the contrary, Ghani’s policies to press ahead with Afghan reconciliation by seeking the cooperation of Pakistan have incrementally brought about a certain “marginalization” of the US lately, especially with China and Pakistan working in tandem to foster peace talks. The Chinese president Xi Jinping staked his prestige by calling for an “early settlement” in Afghanistan.
If these trends accelerate, the US should be happy about it. But in reality, Washington is worried like hell, since the Taliban has made the vacation of American military occupation the main precondition for peace in Afghanistan and it is a fair guess that both Beijing and Islamabad would also like to see the back of the last American soldier in the Hindu Kush.
Interestingly, Islamabad claimed recently that Pakistan and China are willing to be the “guarantors” of any Afghan settlement. The assumption so far has been that without US’ financial assistance, Afghan economy won’t be able to survive. But that is also not the case anymore, since China looms large as a potentially much bigger benefactor for Afghanistan if only peace gets established in that country, creating a climate for launching the multi-billion dollar Silk Road projects. China has pledged $46 billion investment in Pakistan to build an Economic Corridor.
Again, the integration of Afghanistan into China’s Belt and Road strategy seriously threatens the US’ regional influence insofar as it would create an altogether new power dynamic in the region bringing together China, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and Russia on a single platform on issues of regional security and stability. In sum, the US’ celebrated “pivot” to Asia has come under serious challenge in Central Asia.
Clearly, Ghani increasingly found himself between the rock and a hard place. He felt uncomfortable about Karzai’s intentions and it created acute insecurity in his mind. Most certainly, he needs American protection.
Yet, his political survival is also dependent on bringing peace to the country and kick starting development-oriented governance for which he needs to reconcile with the Taliban.
However, the reconciliation with Taliban is wholly dependent on Pakistan’s willingness to cooperate.
Enter China. Ghani’s counts on China not only to influence Pakistan to moderate its policies but also to invest in the Afghan economy. China has become an irreplaceable partner for Ghani.
Against the backdrop of these profound contradictions playing out in Ghani’s calculus, it should come as no surprise that he got an important visitor from Washington last Sunday – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey.
The doughty general brought with him a master plan outlining a joint US-Afghan strategy to counter the Islamic State’s rise in Afghanistan. The Pentagon readout said Dempsey and Ghani discussed “the possibility of forming a network to oppose the trans-regional threat posed by the Islamic State.”
Succinctly put, Dempsey has told Ghani that Afghanistan should be transformed as a regional hub to potentially allow for the forward deployment of US counter-terrorism forces in the region and also provide a base to strengthen regional partners who may be in the lead fighting terrorism.
In Dempsey’s words, “They (Afghans) are a credible and willing partner in (counter-terrorism) and could be one of the keys to addressing the IS in all of South Asia”.
Of course, Dempsey has also let it be known that the fight against terrorism will be a lengthy struggle that could last a generation.
Dempsey told the media later that the IS poses “a persistent threat that has to be addressed at a sustainable level of effort over a period of time”. Indeed, he was in a jolly mood after meeting Ghani. This is how Dempsey summarized Ghani’s response: “His (Ghani’s) view is, ‘Hey, look, I’m (Ghani) a willing partner in an area where you may not have willing partners’”.
Meanwhile, on Sunday again, General John Campbell, the top US commander in Afghanistan, explained to the media that from being “nascent” in Afghanistan, the IS has become “operationally emergent.”
Unsurprisingly, Obama lost no time to personally follow up Dempsey’s successful mission to Kabul. Obama held a rare video conference with Ghani on Wednesday to discuss the fight against IS.
The US is thrilled that the long-term American military presence in Afghanistan is not in jeopardy so long as Ghani remains in power in Kabul. On his part, Ghani can draw comfort from the knowledge that he can count on the US to back him to the hilt even if half a dozen Karzais were to gang up against him in the Kabul bazaar.
The “known unknown,” however, remains. How will the Taliban take the Dempsey mission?
The US may have effectively put a spoke in the wheel of the nascent peace talks that Pakistan and China have been desperately fostering. Dempsey who never bothered to hide his contempt toward the Pakistani military and the ISI for their doublespeak during the Afghan war, is walking away laughing, just weeks ahead of his retirement.
He left Ghani in no doubt whatsoever that the vacation of the US occupation is a non-negotiable issue. Ghani got the point alright – thanks to Karzai.
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http://atimes.com/2015/07/afghan-power-play-it-was-never-really-about-karzai-its-about-ghani/