Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by captscooby81, Dec 12, 2018.
All future discussions about upcoming 2019 General Election can be done in this thread
As we have the results of the Semi Final to 2019 General Elections . Lets start a new thread and follow the nation wide political happenings for the Run up to 2019 GE 17th Lok Sabha
Sorry I didn't see this thread earlier, so I posted some more relevant stuff in the other thread before. I will repost some of it here.
BJP seems ot be right on the cusp of sweeping these elections, but that last mile they are unable to cross.
In LS 2019, Modi can push people to vote for BJP, but...
In my opinion, he needs to enthuse his traditional voters, Hindus + Urban people.
NDA vs Mahagathbandhan
NDA - 293
UPA - 233
Others - 17
NDA vs No Mahagathbandhan
Hours after heartland loss, Modi govt sends SOS to Intelligence Bureau for 2019 polls
Modi government wants IB to prepare and submit detailed reports on the “mood of voters” ahead of the 2019 general elections.
New Delhi: Hassled top functionaries in the Modi government called an urgent meeting of the Intelligence Bureau (IB) Tuesday, following the BJP’s defeat in the assembly elections and urged the agency to begin work on “gauging the mood of voters” for 2019, ThePrint has learnt.
According to sources, the IB has now been asked to prepare and submit regular and detailed reports to the government on the issues that could determine which way the 2019 general elections will go.
The sources said the top government functionaries have also been asked to analyse previous inputs by the IB to see where they went wrong and build up case studies for the upcoming elections.
“The government now wants to prepare for the upcoming 2019 elections and it does not want to take any risk. This has been conveyed to all party members,” a source said. “Old reports are being dug out and are being analysed and a new strategy is being planned.”
While campaigning was on in the five states, the IB had submitted reports to the Modi government that the unpopularity of outgoing chief minister Vasundhara Raje may go against the BJP in Rajasthan, while in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, anti-incumbency could play a part.
The report had also mentioned that rural distress and unemployment in Chhattisgarh were likely to go against the government.
‘Part of party introsepction’
A BJP leader, who did not want to be named, said this is part of the party’s introspection following the defeats in the five seats.
“There have been several reasons for the defeat, anti-incumbency being the primary one, but one needs to accept defeat and work towards the next goal which is 2019,” a BJP party member said. “We have already started charting out a strategy with Prime Minister Modi as the central character.”
The leader also argued that losing the elections did not mean that the Modi wave had died down.
“The margins with which we have lost are very minimal, both in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and that too explains a lot,” he said.
I am just wondering what if the Congress Moles in the Bureaucracy cook up a totally different report about mood of the people and give it to BJP and BJP plans a strategy based on this and goes into elections and gets busted..
@ezsasa Gaaru throw some insight if you have any idea about IB report for national elections and how it went ..i read somewhere 1976 Indira went with confidence on IB report and got screwed royally in 1977 elections ...
2019: Rahul size hole in Modi's armour
After BJP's traumatic Tuesday, cliches spring to mind. The one that fits the best to describe the outcome from 5 states of the union is summed up thus: 'Rahul has broken BJP's heart'.
Indeed, by trouncing the BJP in its heartland Rahul has announced himself as Modi's principal challenger for 2019 and the BJP would do well to accept it. A positive for the Congress is that Rahul also now believes it. Sample this bit of confidence as Rahul Gandhi welcomed happy returns from MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan on his 1st birthday as Congress President: ''We have won this election, we will also win in 2019''.
While Rahul’s divination is highly improbable it isn't impossible. Remember, the BJP had won 62 out of 65 Lok Sabha seats from MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in 2014. After Tuesday’s verdict that number could easily fall to 21. Which means it could lose 41 seats it won in 2014 from these 3 states. Here's a bit of arithmetic that puts things in sobering perspective for the BJP. The saffron party has lost as many as 180 Assembly seats or almost 48% of the seats it held in these 3 states in 2013. The Congress, on the other hand, has gained 163 Assembly seats, a jump of more than 138% over its score in 2013. If one were to project this over a Lok Sabha calculus Congress gains translate into a potential increase of 31 Lok Sabha seats for it in 2019.
But if you still think that arithmetic on paper doesn't quite square the circle then try history: the parties that have won the Assembly elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh ahead of General elections have always (except once) improved their Lok Sabha tally from these states.
What will further worry the BJP is that the Congress has rebound to a strong 2nd position in Gujarat. If the Assembly results in late 2017 are projected onto a Lok Sabha map the BJP could lose between 10 to 12 seats it held here in 2014. Remember, the BJP won all 26 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2014. In Uttar Pradesh, the SP and BSP led by Akhilesh and Mayawati are inching towards a 'gathbandhan'. If we add caste chemistry to a spot of mathematics and history this could dent the BJP's Lok Sabha tally of 2014 in Uttar Pradesh. Some pollsters are convinced that the ‘gathbandhan’ in Uttar Pradesh could capture as many as 50 of 71 Lok Sabha seats the BJP holds in India’s electoral crucible.
Taken together the picture isn’t pretty for the BJP. If history, mathematics and chemistry conspire against it the party could lose up to 80 seats it won in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in 2019. Without a doubt, this would throw open many possibilities, not least a defeat for the NDA. After all, an NDA with 200 seats under Modi could have problems finding allies. Will the party and its minders in Nagpur sacrifice him at the altar of power? Who knows?
If there is any consolation to be had for the BJP then it is that the Congress isn't still winning against regional parties. To capture power it must do better in the South and East. As of now, there’s no sign of that. The Congress is only conceding ground to regional parties. Results from Mizoram and Telangana bear witness to this trend. Second, despite facing 15 years of anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh and a ferocious backlash against an unpopular CM in Rajasthan, the BJP hasn't been wiped out. This hope will keep BJP's broken heart ticking in the heartland where if not its governance then at least its ground game will remain worthy of emulation.
In the end analysis, Rahul is partially right. Only a die-hard BJP supporter will deny that 2019 is wide open and Modi is still the happy campaigner he was in 2014. The fact that Modi was unusually self-effacing maybe even diffident (Modi held half the number of rallies as Rahul) in this semi-final election underlines his under confidence in his own appeal, if not the BJP’s.
To deny Rahul his prophecy, Modi has 4 months till the first Lok Sabha vote is cast to address agrarian distress, restlessness among the youth over the lack of jobs and unease within the moderate middle classes and minorities over 'Gau Raksha, Gau Mutra and Gotra'.
The question is: Has Modi left it too late? Rahul will certainly be hoping so.
It was very logical until this part ..Then i read these and realised its written by a presstitute ..Gau Raksha can be understood but Gau Mutra surely comes from the hindu hatred loonies only ...
Ram Mandir alone cannot win you 2019. You need farm loan waivers, sops, subsidies, etc to win. People basically want traditional freebies and cheap stuff. Then they want entertainment via arrest of corrupts and then thrown into jail.
Sensex surges 600 points; Trust in Modi's return in 2019 fuelling markets?
The only thing that can still upset Modi's apple cart is a joining of forces by the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh.
The Indian markets that catch a cold when the US sneezes did remarkably different on Wednesday. Equity markets have a soul of their own and it's mostly a realm of sentiments. So what sentiments are boosting the confidence of Indian share markets?
Indian equities rallied for the second day on Wednesday, close on the heels of tumultuous changes. While BSE Sensex rose 629 points or 1.79 percent, the Nifty gained 188.45 points or 1.79 percent. This came after the nearly 200 point gain in the Sensex on Tuesday when results of the elections to five state assemblies were announced.
Pundits expected markets to tumble on Tuesday, following the abrupt resignation of Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel on Monday. And markets did fall at the open, diving nearly 500 points.
The recoup and then the bounce back came after a clearer picture of the assembly results emerged. There were great fears earlier that if the Bharatiya Janata Party suffered extensive losses in the 'semi final' to the Lok Sabha election 2019, the markets would bleed.
This didn't happen. On top of it, Wednesday's rally has been more than surprising. So, what does the mart reaction actually mean?
It's been argued that the BJP's losses had been factored in earlier, and had reflected in Monday's trading. Markets had tumbled on Monday after the exit polls showed last weekend the Congress was heading for a win in Rajasthan and there was a tight race in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
In the event, BJP lost all three states. While Chhattisgarh was a landslide, a strong anti-incumbency wave uprooted the party's citadels in the major heartland states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
Yet, the markets reacted with a 600-point rise in Sensex. It's the same market that has tumbled violently at the drop of a hat in western and broader Asian markets, in the last two months.
As in all matters, the money trail is the best sign of where things are headed. It appears like markets don't fret about Narendra Modi losing badly in 2019. The markets don't think Tuesday's election results are a precursor to similar verdict in 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
It seems the markets have priced in Modi's retune in 2019. The Congress win in three states -- by razor-thin margins in two of them - doesn't seem to be potent enough to force a change of government at the centre in 2019.
Here's how major brokerages have assessed the market reaction to the assembly elections:
CLSA says that the conclusion drawn by market participants from Tuesday's results is that Modi will retune in 2019. It says that probably the only thing that can still upset Modi's apple cart is a joining of forces by the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh.
HSBC analysts have pointed out that even if the three states voted in the same way in 2019, that would account for only 15 percentof Lok Sabha seats. According to UBS, the return of the BJP government in 2019 has been priced in.
Lol, Congress is relying too much here in UP on SP, in my opinion, apart from muslims and yadavs, SP is not going to be a great threat for BJP in 2019 provided Amit Shah and Modi gives people freebies over here, they'll run behind BJP anyday plus Ram Mandir would go a long way in snatching majority of 80 seats here in UP.
Can't comment on Indira gandhi thing..
But i can definitely confirm that mood in whatsapp groups of govt employees including judiciary are fully against modi, rumours are being spread to create hate against modi administration.
Even if Jaitley increases DA in next budget, BJP will not get their vote.
It sums up the entire situation.
If Jaitley is miserly in Interim Budget, NDA loses. Simple as that. He has been Shakuni Mama for too long. Time to blow all stops full ahead.
Personally, I am a very big fan of Narendra Modi and his personality, I like his clear cut policies and would always want him to win just for the sake of development work he has done.
At the same time I am a very positive person as well, I wouldn't be sad for long, neither would I be one of those who support modi but wouldn't show that on social media in case he loses.
I would regard that as an opportunity to troll chamchas very hard during their favs tenure and would spam almost all the videos of Dhruv Rathi with critical responses.
NDTV and News18 trying desperately to present Rahul as PM. Also why softcore Hindutva is allowed by media.
Elections are 5 months away, all trends show NDA breaching 272, and yet I see so many Arjuna's weeping on the battlefield?
Ok first of all Government needs to get rid of elections every 6 months, I mean there is always a election going on every 6 months, get it all done within just an year's time frame and then focus on working for 5 years.
Nah bro nah I am ready for the war bro .
10th day after CM announcement will be super fun.
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