US National Intelligence Council in its report “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds” has labelled Pakistan (and Iran) as state supporter of terrorism. “Many states might continue to use terrorist groups: states choose to exploit terrorist movements out of a strong sense of insecurity. States such as Pakistan and Iran feel threatened by what they perceive as stronger, threatening powers in their regions or globally. Therefore, they seek asymmetric options to assert power and deter attack; using terrorist groups as proxies and pursuing nuclear weapons are two such asymmetric tools.” says the report
The report also points out that the support for such regimes is waning and has the possbility of becoming an international pariah. “International disapproval of state support for terrorist movements has increased significantly, and the costs to a regime of directly supporting terrorists looks set to become even greater as international cooperation increases” says the report.
According to the report, Pakistan will seek more nuclear weapons as compensation for its other security weakness vis-a-vis India. Pakistan’s large and fast-growing nuclear arsenal in addition to its doctrine of “first use” is intended to deter and balance against India’s conventional military advantages. India worries about a second Mumbai-style terrorist attack from militants backed by Pakistan. A major incident with many casualties and Pakistani fingerprints would put a weakened Indian Government under tremendous pressure to respond with force, with the attendant risk of nuclear miscalculation.
Pakistan is also at the risk of an Unraveling scenario, where in all the destructive forces lurking in the region—such as weak government, large numbers of unemployed youths, and food and water crises—would come to the fore and result in the social and political fracturing of Pakistan causing increased radicalisation of its muslim population and the danger of spill over of militancy to India.
The report can be downloaded from here