World War III between the U.S. and China?

[Dovah]

With China tied at the waist to USA and overloaded with worthless US debt and 60% of Chinese economy surviving of USA, US controls China completely(in an economic sense)

Well with their economy going strong now and the fact they are avoiding any overt misadventures and focusing on creating a consumer base for themselves in their country instead of USA indicates that they want to get out of US shadow, 1 billion Chinese consumers would be better for the Chinese economy than 400 million Americans in the future.
(I don't know jack about economy )

I am not the one to underestimate USA though, I am merely suggesting that China isn't underestimated either.

Also the fact that they're trying to entangle US in disputes overseas and openly collaborating with US enemies to keep them engaged while staying relatively clean themselves.

 

[The Messiah]

Forgot about Past. History is History and it's not necessary that it repeats all the time in same way. Talk about Present and future backed with sensible logic and data.

History always repeats itself.

Right now usa is already on the downward slope although its still ahead of everyone and its not even been the top dog for 1 century! look at previous empires and how many more centuries they lasted. I bet you by the time your a wee old grumpy man living his last days that usa wont be sole superpower. Make sure to pm me your address so that i can come and say 'i told you so'

 

[SPIEZ]

I hear there's a recession coming next year, not sure if it's not a OT, but at least the possibility of a war goes out of the window !

 

[Dovah]

It's not about weapons. Its about strategic alliance, Diplomacy, control on 3/4th of black commodity and GDP and defence capability.

China is closing in on all these fronts.

On probability, many countries can become super power.

China is on that list. Your point is?

But It's just possibility. Who knows what will happen after 50 years ??

Exactly! So we can't say that there is no way China can confront the USA because US will have 3000 JSFs by 20XX.....

Today, There is no challenge to U.S. by miles. U.S. is only Super power and will retain it's super power tag for long time to come.

No doubt.

My opinion is based on facts and not Ifs and Buts.

For the present, yes.

My opinion is based on facts and not Ifs and Buts.

Your opinion that China can't become a superpower is being disputed not that the US will remain one.

 

[Galaxy]

History always repeats itself.

Right now usa is already on the downward slope although its still ahead of everyone and its not even been the top dog for 1 century! look at previous empires and how many more centuries they lasted. I bet you by the time your a wee old grumpy man living his last days that usa wont be sole superpower. Make sure to pm me your address so that i can come and say 'i told you so'

You are just posting to feel good factor that U.S. won't remain Super power.

I don't know how come they are in downward slope when their military bases outside country increased from 40-45 to 100 in last 10-15 years. Defence budget is more than rest of the world combined. Weapons, Missiles, Nuke, Fighter Jets, Warships, Submarines, CBG, ATV, Drone/U(c)A, ABM missiles, Spy Satellites have increased to triple number in last 20 years. U.S. has more than rest of the world combined. They are rising from Super power to Hyper power now.

 

[The Messiah]

You are just posting to feel good factor that U.S. won't remain Super power.

I don't know how come they are in downward slope when their military bases outside country increased from 40-45 to 100 in last 10-15 years. Defence budget is more than rest of the world combined. Weapons, Missiles, Nuke, Fighter Jets, Warships, Submarines, CBG, ATV, Drone/U(c)A, ABM missiles, Spy Satellites have increased to triple number in last 20 years. U.S. has more than rest of the world combined. They are rising from Super power to Hyper power now.

I would say that they had more clout 10 years ago than now and in majority of those bases not more than a dozen people are there. Many people for centuries thought rome would never fall either.

 

[Galaxy]

China is closing in on all these fronts.

China is not even 1/10th of U.S., U.S. has 80 supportive countries from Japan to Turkey, KSA to Germany, Australia to Israel. China don't even have 1/10th of such strategic partner except failed nations like Pak, N.K. Also, U.S. controls majority of black commodity.

China is on that list. Your point is?

Many country can become superpower including China. As of now, No country looks close to U.S. by miles in next few decades.

Exactly! So we can't say that there is no way China can confront the USA because US will have 3000 JSFs by 20XX.....

China can't confront the USA. What China might plan after 20 years, U.S. already planned decade before. It's futuristic possibility which is based on Ifs and Buts. As of now, U.S. is 30 years ahead.

Your opinion that China can't become a superpower is being disputed not that the US will remain one.

I agree on one point that China can become super power but it's too early to even think of.

 

[Galaxy]

I would say that they had more clout 10 years ago than now and in majority of those bases not more than a dozen people are there. Many people for centuries thought rome would never fall either.

May be, May be not. I am no astrologer.

What i said is all based on facts.

 

[Dovah]

China can't confront the USA. What China might plan after 20 years, U.S. already planned decade before. It's futuristic possibility which is based on Ifs and Buts. As of now, U.S. is 30 years ahead.

Again you're only talking of equipment.

 

[Galaxy]

Again you're only talking of equipment.

I am not talking of equipment.

I am talking of Strategic alliance, Assets and Diplomacy.

U.S. controls 2/3rd of the world.

U.S. controls Pacific Ocean, India Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, 75% Europe, 75% Middle-east, 50% Asia, Australia, Africa, Latin America, North America. China don't even control 10% of the world. How can even think to compare ??? let China controls 1/3rd of U.S. strategic asset and alliance, Then we will talk. Even China neighbours, Japan, S.K., Singapore, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia are U.S. partners.

Tell me one continent where any other country is even 50% of U.S ?? There is no competitor.

The day U.S. will decide it can block China @ South China sea and Indian Ocean region and no one will able to do jack.

 

[Dovah]

I am not talking of equipment.

I am talking of Strategic alliance, Assets and Diplomacy.

U.S. controls 2/3rd of the world.

U.S. controls Pacific Ocean, India Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, 75% Europe, 75% Middle-east, 50% Asia, Australia, Africa, Latin America, North America. China don't even control 10% of the world. How can even think to compare ??? let China controls 1/3rd of U.S. strategic asset and alliance, Then we will talk. Even China neighbours, Japan, S.K., Singapore, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia are U.S. partners.

Tell me one continent where any other country is even 50% of U.S ?? There is no competitor.

The day U.S. will decide it can block China @ South China sea and Indian Ocean region and no one will able to do jack.

I tire of this.

 

[civfanatic]

China is not even 1/10th of U.S., U.S. has 80 supportive countries from Japan to Turkey, KSA to Germany, Australia to Israel. China don't even have 1/10th of such strategic partner except failed nations like Pak, N.K. Also, U.S. controls majority of black commodity.

China has economic influence over most of the Third World and also a large portion of the First World. Go to any supermarket in the U.S. and you will be flooded with Made in China goods.

Who needs strategic partners when you hold another country by the balls (economy)? If U.S. and China go to war both of their economies will tank but especially America's, because the dollar is currently being kept afloat almost entirely by massive Chinese investments in U.S. Treasury bonds (for their own benefit, obviously).

 

[Galaxy]

China has economic influence over most of the Third World and also a large portion of the First World. Go to any supermarket in the U.S. and you will be flooded with Made in China goods.

Who needs strategic partners when you hold another country by the balls (economy)? If U.S. and China go to war both of their economies will tank but especially America's, because the dollar is currently being kept afloat almost entirely by massive Chinese investments in U.S. Treasury bonds (for their own benefit, obviously).

That means China economy is dependent on U.S. Isn't it ?? China economy is based on exports which is around 40% of GDP. Most of the importing countries are U.S. or her allies. So, China is more dependent on them. The day, They start looking for other countries for products, China will suffer. If U.S. will suffer, then China will also suffer.

 

[civfanatic]

That means China economy is dependent on U.S. Isn't it ?? China economy is based on exports which is around 40% of GDP. Most of the importing countries are U.S. or her allies. So, China is more dependent on them. The day, They start looking for other countries for products, China will suffer. If U.S. will suffer, then China will also suffer.

You have no idea how much of the U.S. economy is based on consumption. Without cheap Chinese exports, lower middle-class and middle-class consumption will drop like a stone, resulting in massive deflation and an economic crisis that will make the current "recession" look like a joke.

 

[ice berg]

That means China economy is dependent on U.S. Isn't it ?? China economy is based on exports which is around 40% of GDP. Most of the importing countries are U.S. or her allies. So, China is more dependent on them. The day, They start looking for other countries for products, China will suffer. If U.S. will suffer, then China will also suffer.

Ah the infamous 40 %. Let us take a closer look.

Why the Export Slump Won't Doom China's Economy

China's exports contribute far less to GDP growth than many assume, with domestic spending and investment and knowledge gained from exports driving growth

By Anil K. Gupta and Haiyan Wang
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The role of exports as the driver of China's economic growth is exaggerated. So is the fear that, as export growth slows, the country's economy will come to a grinding halt. The numbers tell us the real story.
Measured on a top-line basis, China's exports are indeed very large. World Bank figures put the 2007 numbers at $1.22 trillion, or about 37% of gross domestic product. Comparing raw data for GDP and exports, however, is like comparing apples and oranges. GDP refers to value added within the economy and not the sum of top-line revenues. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, 58% of China's exports constitute so-called processing trade where components are imported into China and the final assembled product shipped out.
Take, for example, consumer electronic goods such as an iPod or an iPhone. These Apple (AAPL) devices are assembled in China, but the value added within China accounts for less than 10% of the export value. Aggregated across all exports, estimates of value added within China range from a low of 25% to a high of 50%. Our own discussions with senior officials at China's Commerce Ministry suggest that their estimates are around 33%. In other words, even after two decades of explosive growth, in 2007 exports contributed about 12% of China's GDP, or one-third of the top-line figure of 37%.
UNSUSTAINABLE GROWTH TREND

China's exports have indeed grown at a 25% annual rate, over twice the rate of growth in GDP. Since the value added by exports presently contributes about 12% to China's GDP, this means that, in recent years, export growth has contributed about 3% of the 11%-13% growth rate in GDP. This is an important component. However, these numbers also show that about three-quarters of the growth rate in China's GDP has come from domestic spending and domestic investment.
What about likely future trends? Simple back-of-the-envelope analysis tells us that, just as trees do not grow to the sky, the days of high growth rate in China's exports are over. China's exports currently account for about 10% of the world's exports and are almost tied with Germany for the No. 1 position in the world. If these numbers continue to grow at their historic 25% rate (and world exports at their historic 10% rate), then by 2020 exports from China would account for almost 50% of the entire world's exports. Such a situation is economically and politically impossible. For one thing, as China gets richer, its labor costs will increase, and the more labor-intensive processing trade will begin migrating to lower labor-cost countries such asIndia and Vietnam. For another, belief in free trade or not, other big economies will find it politically impossible to accept such a high level of dependence on imports from China.
The most likely scenario is that China's exports will now grow at a much more modest 10% rate. To maintain their value-added contribution to GDP at current levels, the Chinese government will need to proactively push for an increase in the domestic value in its exports. This is where we can see part of the logic behind the government's explicit focus in its 11th five-year plan, launched in 2006, to start building China's future competitive advantage on science, technology, and innovation rather than just cost efficiency. Some of the key initiatives in this new thrust include an increase in the research and development-to-GDP ratio from about 1.3% in 2005 to 2.5% by 2020 and, for the first time, seriousness about enforcing laws regarding intellectual-property rights.
Some of the early evidence regarding a move up the value chain in China's exports is already in. Its exports to India heavily comprise capital goods such as power plants and other infrastructure equipment, where much of the value in the products is added within China.
In terms of the role that exports have played in China's growth so far, the more important contribution has come not from the size of value added to GDP, but from the knowledge China has gained as a result of exports. The large volume of processing trade has taught vast numbers of Chinese managers how to produce high-quality products for the world's most demanding markets, how to build a responsive supply chain for customers located thousands of miles away, and how to efficiently manage production operations employing tens of thousands of workers at a single location. The spillover of this know-how into the rest of the economy has been one of the major factors in helping boost domestic productivity, the single biggest driver of China's economic growth.
Anil K. Gupta is the Michael Dingman Chair in Global Strategy and Entrepreneurship at the Smith Business School, the University of Maryland. Haiyan Wang is managing partner of the China India Institute. They are the coauthors of Getting China and India Right (Jossey-Bass/Wiley, 2009) and The Quest for Global Dominance (Jossey-Bass/Wiley, 2008).

Why the Export Slump Won't Doom China's Economy - BusinessWeek


What i said is all based on facts.

 

[Galaxy]

Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs Statistics, People's Bank of China.


BTW, This doesn't give any Justification or criteria of next Super power.

I stick with my POV that China can't become next super power in next few decades at least. If anyone thinks opposite, Kindly continue to post with some statistics, data, reason and logic to contradict.

Regards,
Galaxy.

 

[ice berg]

Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs Statistics, People's Bank of China.


BTW, This doesn't give any Justification of next Super power.

Maybe you should stop looking at the pictures and instead do some reading. Like the article I just posted. Oh btw based on your own source, it was 30 % in 2010, not 40 % like you said.
Of course the fact that the number is declining is another point you failed to notice.

One more thing, the ratio of export and GDP dont effect one way or another you become a superpower or not. The sooner you realise it, the sooner you can move on.

 

[SHASH2K2]

one wise man once said that pictures are worth thousand words.

 

[ice berg]

one wise man once said that pictures are worth thousand words.

Did that wise man tells you that you need to understand the picture first?

 

[W.G.Ewald]

It won't happen.

The chances of China invading Pakistan are much higher.

I would not have thought of that outcome. What benefit accrues to China from invading and occupying China, as you see it.