'World economy has shifted from West to East'

Discussion in 'International Politics' started by ahmedsid, Apr 14, 2009.

  1. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    December 03, 2008 11:37 IST
    Last Updated: December 03, 2008 11:48 IST

    A senior public policy advisor has predicted that India and China are going to propel the economic growth of the world in the 21st century.

    Releasing his book, An Asian Century Manifesto- Global Political Economy of the 21st Century, at the Nehru Centre in London on Tuesday night, senior public policy advisor Atma Singh said, "World economy has shifted from the West to East in the 500 years and India, along with China, is going to propel the economic growth in the world in the 21st century."

    He said India has the potential to be a bridge between east (e.g. Japan, China) and west Asia (e.g. Arab countries) in order to unite Asia.

    Singh said this is a strategic role for India -- both at the level of trade, culture, philosophy and politics and the country must be enabled to play this specific global role.

    Equally, "India can lead the battle for democracy across Asia through a process of renewing its own democracy by getting rid of corruption and re-asserting meritocracy and technocracy in its system he said adding, China is a de facto leader of Asia, with its economic and military might.

    Although, it has a political weakness with a lack of democracy in the system, which is a constraint in a knowledge and creative industries-based global economy with 'democratic choice' in the lifestyles of people, he added.

    Singh, who was senior most Policy Advisor to the Mayor of London on Asian Affairs from June 2001 to July 2007, also announced that he would contest for the post of the Mayor of London in 2012.

    Singh said the total Asian population of 4.03 billion, out of the total world population of 6.67 billion, constituted 60 per cent of the world population in 2007.

    "Asians are the majority on the planet. At stake is the most fundamental battle on the earth: the battle against poverty. If China and India defeat poverty, whilst constituting four in ten of the world's population with Asians the majority so can the rest of humanity," he said.

    He added that both the countries were seeking to overcome the historical economic damage of territorial disintegration through Asian regional cooperation, including economic free trade associations and the resolution of outstanding conflicts and disputes between neighbours.

    Noting that China and India's position in the world economy has risen, Singh said from the last quarter of the 20th century to the early years of 21st century, the countries have played an increasing role in the world economy by sustaining economic growth of about 10 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively.

    He noted that China and India are likely to become the largest and third largest economies in the world, respectively, by 2040. "This will be closest economic correlation to population weight in the world economy for over a century," he said.

    In terms of entertainment, Singh said Bollywood is making increasing inroads in the European and North American market.

    "It already has a substantial market in south Asia, China, south east Asia, Australia, Middle East and parts of Africa. In 2004 for the first time, more people in the world watched Bollywood than Hollywood films -- 3.8 billion as opposed to 3.6 billion, according to Paul Brett of the British Film Institute," he added.

    "The Indian film Industry could tap 12 per cent of the global entertainment market by 2008. Shah Rukh Khan, the Bollywood star has 1 billion fans worldwide -- the same number as Tom Cruise," he noted.

    http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/dec/03bcrisis-world-economy-has-shifted-from-west-to-east.htm
     
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  3. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    This is the truth, India will play a Huge role I believe!

    PS: Mr Atma Singh is a Contributor to our Site (DFI)
     
  4. Flint

    Flint Senior Member Senior Member

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    India needs to improve infrastructure and move into manufacturing urgently. Our agriculture is killing us. Lets tone down the glorious predictions and focus on the immediate problems iMO.
     
  5. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    ^^ While I agree that we need to focus on the immediate issues, it is a fact that India will have a much bigger share of the world economy in future. I think India has to start preparing now for the changed situation in the next few decades when the world will look much different. We can't be left with old alliances in a world that looks totally different.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    These predictions actually assume a lower growth rate for India (and the other BRIC economies) than we have had. The question really is to sustain what we have already achieved for more than 2 decades for the next 2-3 decades and build our human capital. We have a great chance to banish mass poverty in India with the resources available, only if we can take care of the friggin governance.

    I actually like Naidu's idea of cash transfers if that can really scale and be sustained. He has linked it to conditions that will take care of the future generation (studies being compulsory etc.) as well as improve the lot of the poor directly without the middlemen.
     
  6. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    vinod,
    I think this recession will prove to be a boon in disguise for india. becoz west and china are heavily affected by it, while india is relatively safe and is recovering fast. this might even out china vis a vis india. wat say?
     
  7. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    It is far-fetched Johnee. We will at least take a decade or two to actually match the chinese (unless they do some kind of mistake). They are way ahead in manufacturing and built a very good infrastructure all over the country and this is where we are lacking acutely. We need to take this opportunity of recession to begin massive infrastructure building which in itself will act as stimulus for the economy of the country and will reap us long term benefits.
     
  8. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    Not so sure about that, mate.

    At this moment it appears that China is sitting pretty on much larger reserves and has been less impacted by the slowdown. But in the long term I think the gap will start closing once the lower productivity of China due to their aging population starts catching up.
     
  9. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    I am talking of long term as well. may be a decade or two. if we use this time of recession properly, then that would even out china vis a vis india over that period of time. of course, we need to invest in infrastructure heavily.
     
  10. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    I thought china was also affected by recession, no?

    anyway vinod, your post got me thinking about the more long term. wat happens when the aging population expires? how would it affect china? human resource will diminish but at the same time number of ppl to be fed and cared for will also decrease. wat will be the net effect? and by then india would be hugely populated, so wat would be our position?
     
  11. EnlightenedMonk

    EnlightenedMonk Member of The Month JULY 2009 Senior Member

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    Yes, China is affected by this recession much more than we are because they depend on exports to Europe and the US for their survival. Their market has been made up of copying of goods and this hasn't gone down very well... in fact, I've heard that there is a lot of civil unrest in many areas...

    Now, for your second point, let me put a different spin on that... in another 10 to 15 years, the number of people hitting the age of 60 will increase dramatically in China and the state is supposed to care for these people. At the same time, the one child policy has hit China very hard and they will have very few workers to work in the "copying industry"...

    Now, China's growth is unsustainable because the mass production sort of growth model has outlived its days and also because of the fact that such models of growth require either a growing or a steady supply of labour which 15 to 20 years down the line will decrease dramatically in China due to the reasons quoted above...

    So, the only way for China to progress 15 years down the line is to have some research oriented or invention oriented industry (which can survive and thrive with lower number of more skilled and intelligent people)... Now, AFAIK, there isn't much that China can boast about as far as creating a research and discovery oriented economy is concerned. They're still learning their baby steps in such an industry...

    So, if our reforms progress at the current pace and Ceteris Paribus (all other factors remaining same), I think we should overtake China in another 15-20 years...
     
  12. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    These are good questions. I think China will relax the one child policy as the effects of that policy are already visible and their population has stabilized. The current generation will suffer though as they have to support a large number of old people who are no longer productive. It may come to one couple needing to support 2 sets of parents and that is a huge burden.

    In Indian now no one even dares talk of population control after the emergency excesses. the educated class follows that on their own due to economic reasons while the laggards multiply. I am not hopeful on that front. This will prevent us from getting the demographic dividend as most of the workforce will not be educated enough coming from the lower strata of society.
     
  13. Flint

    Flint Senior Member Senior Member

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    I agree, but when I see leaders like Varun/Rahul Gandhi who are supposedly the future Prime ministers its really disheartening.

    One is a college dropout and the other is going around threatening to chop hands and feet. Its really disgusting and I fail to see a single upcoming leader who has the vision and wisdom to carry India forward.

    You may love to hate the Chinese but you gotta give it to them - their leaders are superb.
     
  14. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    why is india's future so interwoven with dynasty's future?

    anyway, I dont share your pessimism. to think that only a PhD can take india forward is illogical. was indira well educated? but she did her job when needed and died when needed. india is a land of destiny. things just happen, no one plans them.
    just like indian team gets a dhoni, when the time comes we will get our leader to make india the SUPERPOWER. (sorry for the rhetoric).:Laie_57:
     
  15. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Everybody got affected because of recession, some countries got less affected while some got more affected. We need to wait and see for at least 3 months to see to what extent each country has actually got affected. As of now, reports suggest that China got affected deeply but is recovering the ground for the last 2 months. Even India got affected, our GDP growth is now pegged at 5-5.5% compared to 9% last year while chinese growth rate pegged at 7% compared 11% last year.

    It is true that aging population will affect the chinese productivity in future unless chinese change their one-child policy, they might even do, one never knows. Indian population will grow and we will have more productive young population compared to china and other countries, but we should be able to utilize this human capital in the right way to be a economic super power. If we are unable to harness this, we will remain same as we are today. So, we need to create more opportunities as we go on into the future for these people, that is the key. How we will do it?. By increasing manufacturing, building infrastructure, increasing service industry base, increase in Research and Development, so on and so forth.
     
  16. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    vinod,
    I am not sure, china will care so much for their old population when time comes. they might just abandon them to their plight.
     
  17. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    the shift is happening but the WEST is still where the wealth is easy example
    US economy is estimated to be 50 trillion dollars annually, if the USA has a 7% growth rate
    that equals 3.5 trillion in growth or adding wealth larger than the whole Chinese economy annually at that rate, it could also be reverse with negative growth like it is currently and in recessions, also US debt has not be factored into this.
     
  18. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    Well China does have a better system than India for social security AFAIK.
     
  19. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    China doesn't have any social safety net for its older population. It is pretty much like India, you save when you are young and live on your savings when you retire or you depend on your sons/daughters. So, its population is on its own.
     
  20. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    ok.
    anyways, do you think commies will still be in power till that time ie would they be in power even after 2/3 decades. or do you see some internal agitation? if that happens then it can be game changer, becoz a democratic govt wouldnt be able to drive the chinese economy the way commies have done.
     
  21. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Vinod, there is no proper social safety net for the chinese unlike western economies. That is one of the reason for the high saving rates in China and far less domestic consumption compared to other countries.
     

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