Causes of Inflation
Economists believe that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. However, in the short and medium term inflation may be affected by supply and demand pressures in the economy, and influenced by the relative elasticity of wages, prices and interest rates.
1. Over-expansion of money supply i.e. excess liquidity in the economy leads to inflation because "too many money would be chasing too few goods".
2. Expansion of Bank Credit Rapid expansion of bank credit is also responsible for the inflationary trend in a country.
3. Deficit Financing: The high doses of deficit financing which may cause reckless spending, may also contribute to the growth of the inflationary spiral in a country.
4. A high population growth leads to increase in demand and money income and cause a high price rise.
5. Excessive increase in the price of fuel or food products due to political, economic or natural reasons will lead to inflation for short- as well as long-term.
States of Inflation
There are different states of inflation which is characterized based on its value as well as variation from the previous value.
1. Hyperinflation – It is a very high rate of inflation, usually a rate in excess of 50%. History has some excellent examples of hyperinflation. In Germany, inflation exceeded 1 million % in 1923. It was said that a horse cart full of money would not buy even a newspaper. Right now, Zimbabwe is having an inflation of 1 million %. They have to issue currency of $500 Million dollar (I am not kidding!!) which could only buy a lunch at McDonalds.
2. Deflation – It is the decrease in the general price level of goods and services only when annual inflation is below 0% resulting in the real value of money. Hence, it is sometimes called "negative inflation". Japan suffered from deflation for almost a decade in 1990s. To control recession and Central Bank of Japan was forced to have a negative interest rate on deposit for over a decade.
3. Disinflation – It refers to a time when the rate of change of prices is falling while the inflation rate is positive. For example – if the inflation rate comes down from 3% to 2%, we would say it is disinflation. In India, we have a disinflation because inflation has come down from a high of 13% to 6% and it is still dropping.
4. Stagflation – It is an economic situation in which inflation and economic stagnation occur simultaneously and remain unchecked for a period of time. Stagflation can result when an economy is slowed by an unfavorable supply shock, such as an increase in the price of oil in an oil importing country, which tends to raise prices at the same time that it slows the economy by making production less profitable.
Effects of Inflation on economy
food, commodities and other services become expensive for consumption. Inflation can cause both short-term and long-term damages to the economy; most importantly it causes slow down in the economy.
1. People start consuming or buying less of these goods and services as their income is limited. This leads to slowdown not only in consumption but also production. This is because manufactures will produce fewer goods due to high costs and anticipated lower demand.
2. Banks will increase interest rates as inflation increases otherwise real interest rate will be negative. (Real interest ~ Nominal interest rate – inflation). This makes borrowing costly for both consumers and corporate. Thus people will buy fewer automobiles, houses and other goods. Industries will not borrow money from banks to invest in capacity expansion because borrowing rates are high.
3. Higher interest rates lead to slowdown in the economy. This leads to increase in unemployment because companies start focusing on cost cutting and reduces hiring. Remember Jet Airways lay off over 1000 employees to save cost.
4. Rising inflation can prompt trade unions to demand higher wages, to keep up with consumer prices. Rising wages in turn can help fuel inflation.
5. Inflation affects the productivity of companies. They add inefficiencies in the market, and make it difficult for companies to budget or plan long-term. Inflation can act as a drag on productivity as companies are forced to shift resources away from products and services in order to focus on profit and losses from currency inflation.
Inflation - its causes and effects on the economy