Discussion in 'Indian Air Force' started by Singh, Apr 13, 2015.
@Yusufdfi @Virendra @Kunal_Biswas @sayareakd @sob
Please to give your comments, and tag others.
There will be. The EU is scraping the bottom of their barrel.
Airbus will come in.
Germany to make our new tank and so on.
Speculations and kiteflying galore.
The NDA Govt keeps all this so close to their heart and gives no rise to controversies, that the media has to find some excuse to establish their predominance as 'opinion makers'.
Government's official line is that door is open for future deals. What happened should actually be seen as a "Lets take a break and start over", not a cancellation exactly. I agree with the decisions being made.
1) We feed our urgent need by the 36 planes coming in through this recent purchase. Swadeshi would take time and we can't wait sitting ducks till then.
2) We kill the previous deal that had landed into murky waters (good deal gone bad).
3) We keep the options open for future ones.
4) We make HAL sweat and learn (quality production of LCA etc), like a parent would snatch away model test papers and hand textbook to their kids - "For a change, learn !!". That ensures we don't let the usual import or license drill go on, we make our guys work hard and build indigenous capability.
We won't. Rafale will come in flyaway condition. 36 will be he initial buy. News about MRCA being scrapped is misleading as in we won't buy any more Rafales. We won't make them in HAL but we will certainly buy them. Buying just 36 or 72 doesn't make sense considering the falling numbers of IAF.
Also nobody will participate in such a tender again as well after having gone through it for so many years of testing and down select. India loses credibility by scrapping and re-tendering the same. It costs a lot of money to participate in a tender.
Last but not the least we don't have time to go through it all again. We need fighters NOW.
Any next tender should be for 5th gen fighter but there are no choices. We have to scout for partners to make one or may be look to buy F-35 which seems the only ready platform as the Russians are faltering in their own 5th gen program and not committing to buy many of it
My view strictly based on ' War Preparedness ' of this country against our big neighbor ..
Buying from others is much like borrowing muscles from others, They won`t last long, In that case one need to make our own ..
Instead of issuing another tender, Better concentrate on home made designs and production facilities ..
Rafael Fanboys ka KLPD ho gaya
How many Mirage do we operate?
That will answer your this query in particular .
The tender will be neglected and GTG fly away condition 24 more will be bought to buy time for IAF ....
They will be delivered no before the end of 2018 if extended 2021 , by then If Fingers crossed Tejas Mk2 will be there thus no further orders for rafale.
buying directly will prevent the lose to an great extent .... it is a win win for both
yes we need them now but relying on just one is being foolish we need to explore our options
I think govt is progressing well on FGFA .
F35 is a disaster we must not go that path
AMCA remains on the drawing board but i am optimistic abt it....
Parrikar has this to say
I suspect that means that MRCA is all but consigned to the dustbin and only awaits the finalisation of the G2G deal between India and France. Once that's done, MRCA will be officially scrapped.
The tendering process what was done was for the first time and there were major flaws in that
What IAF wanted was replacement for MiG-21 and initially wanted Mirage 2000, but then it drifted towards Twin engine Rafale and Eurofighter.
Thus in a way its clear that IAF does not really know what its needs are. If given a blank cheque, they might even want to order 100 B-2 for good measure.
If they were particular about wanting twin engine plane, they should have got rid of F-16 and Gripen, thus in a way IAF was not sure of what it wants.
I think next time the way could be,
a) Send for RFP for the products to the manufacturers
b) Get the planes for trials and testing,
c) Select the top two planes.
d) Discuss the prices for buying, maintaining and arming the plane (spares etc) and also simultaneously talk of ToT for the critical technlogy that can be developed as per our requirements. Discuss this Govt to Govt basis.
C-130 and P-8I were discussed this way right?
As of now it seems HAL can manufacture a plane but the technology that it uses is not on par with the international manufacturers and hence such facility should be built and developed, specially the testing chambers that we are planning to build for testing RCS etc.
Kishan Lal Prasad Dubey!!!???
Khade L------- Pe Dhoka
Edit: I think you already know you naughty naughty man
It is very clear that there were primarily 3 reasons for this decision,
1. The MMRCA tender was deeply flawed, talks had bogged down and the status quo would have continued.
2. IAF ( who is partly to blame for the mess) was in a dire situation, with deep attrition in numbers, needed a booster shot. the recent revelation of engine and lubrication troubles of SU 30 made the situation more precarious.
3. HAL does not have the capacity to absorb the cutting edge technology at this moment.
What this order for 36 aircraft has done is to give oxygen ( in words of the RM) for both IAF and HAL. We may see another tranche of aircraft from Dassault. Once the engine issue with SU 30 is sorted, we will definitely see additional order for the flanker.
Another RFP may not happen because apart from F 35, there is no other aircraft which can be invited to the new tender. The ones which were rejected do not have anything new to offer.
Thinking out of box, I would ask for a joint venture between HAL and Dassault/or any other manufacturer. The main job of the JV would be to slowly build up the crucial technology gap which HAL has as of today. This will help HAL in the LCA and the AMCA project. This is a slow process but is the only solution for a viable domestic industry.
I would say its short term solution, but wont last much. Only party happy is French and to some extent IAF.
RM said all future purchase will be from same route. Ambani must be happy.
Nation is at loss. They throw TOT to bin. Forget making AMCA and 6 g from Rafale learning.
Dont known what we will do in long run. Soon Paki-Sino fielding JXX and J35, FGFA is getting delayed.
We are going to get screwed, if we dont get it right in time.
ToT will never ever help India. No one will ever give you full ToT and hit their own feet by loosing one future customer.
As simple as that.
On top of it ToT are not free.
PM is making country's future industrial growth and development based on its military industrial complex.
Once it will get established one can see the difference.
First there are few gaps, at this moment, he is trying to fix those gaps.
To realize these, people have to come out of their old way of thinking or their old mind set what ever you say.
we are not asking to be spoon-fed
oft-times all we need is tech for some intermediate steps, a small boost
and the rest we can figure out on our own
instead of D:I:Y: all on our own , it's faster if we buy tot , with the hidden
implication that otherwise we will reverse engineer it ourselves ( taking a longer time )
in such cases we can build the request for the tot into a larger contract
and we get it in a hidden form
now those who are tech savvy in that particular area will know what's going on
but still as regards overcoming the objections of the tech control regimes,
by embedding our requests as part of a larger contract,
that might just overcome some of the legal objetions .
Anil Ambani seeks infrastructure status for aerospace industry - Business Today
Battle to Supply India's Next Fighter Wide Open Again
Indiaâ€™s Rafale deal is not just purchasing fighter jets. Itâ€™s also about facing the challenge of national security, and balancing defense relationships as well as bilateral ties. A diplomatic deftness PM Narendra Modi seems to have lived up to.
When India, the worldâ€™s largest arms importer, makes a defense move it is watched keenly. The recent deal on 36 Rafale jets is no exception.
Speculations are rife on how this deal works for France, and whatâ€™s in it for India? After all why would New Delhi choose the expensive Rafale which does not command a very impressive list of international customers (other than Egypt), nor does the purchase without a transfer of technology (ToT) in any way compliment Indiaâ€™s much touted â€˜Make in Indiaâ€™ campaign of which the defense sector is an integral part.
However, for India more than the question is who the winner is.
Against a required 44 squadrons to be able to effectively neutralize any external threat the Indian Air Forceâ€™s (IAF) assets have come down to just 34. Most of these functioning squadrons comprised obsolete MiG-21s & MiG-27s ready to be scrapped in about two years.
Apart from just 55 percent serviceability of new Sukhoi-30MKIs (200 in service, of 272 ordered for $12 billion), even the putting into operation the indigenous Teja light combat aircraft is behind schedule, in addition to the delays in the joint development of the Russian 5th generation fighter project.
Prime Minister Modi has been told by his defense team that the earlier MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) contract - to acquire 126 fighters at a cost to the country $14.43 billion, and a delivery period likely to be over seven years - cannot offer the quick transfusion required for Indiaâ€™s air capability. Nor was scrapping the deal and issuing a fresh tender an option as that would have led to expensive penalties.
Instead, reducing the number to 36 jets, expected to be delivered in less than three years, seemed more effective to plug operational gaps. As India based defense analyst Nitin A Gokhale says, â€œItâ€™s neither business nor politics. It is pure operational necessity.â€
Then there was also the quotient of global relations. India has been trying to diversify the sources of its arms imports. Although the US and Russia are its largest sources, India recently has come out into the open about its intent to deepen defense ties with countries like Israel, a relationship hitherto kept under wraps for fear of upsetting friends in the Middle East. The reason is, while the US has been a weapons supplier to rivals like Pakistan for a long time, Russia too has recently forged defense ties with Islamabad â€“ much to the discomfort of New Delhi. So deeper French ties seemed fitting as part of Indiaâ€™s tryst to spread out its dependence for arms to multiple sources.
This worked well for the French because in lieu of an earlier deadlocked deal they bagged an outright sale of 36 jets without having to part with the technology of these products.
By making this announcement in France Modi has shown the deftness of his diplomatic judgment. His visit saw inking of 17 other crucial agreements, with a nuclear deal being one of them, apart from announcements of French investment in India. This means India is looking at building a broad based balanced relationship where each has considerable stake in the other and not just narrowly dependent on arms trade where India could be severely arm twisted for its vulnerability.
Consider this, as per reports France might divert its own militaryâ€™s production order for Rafale fighter jets to meet Indiaâ€™s requirement for 36 warplanes clearly showing Franceâ€™s business compulsions.
Additionally New Delhi has shared a fairly stable relationship with Paris, especially following the 1998 nuclear test by India when France was the first and only Western power to have built strategic partnership with the country.
But back home the deal sparked some strong criticisms for Modi who many thought not only sacrificed the case of â€œMake in Indiaâ€, but also drained huge resources with this expensive buy of a jet that many have rejected in the past, including Brazil.
As per this account Brazil not only objected to an additional charge for ToT but also found the quality of the AESA (active electronically scanned array) of Rafale dubious. As a result, the country chose the Swedish Gripen NG fighter.
Concerns have also been sounded about the hidden overheads of Rafale maintenance, and the fact that the IAF inventory already with too many aircraft types would be made more complex by adding another making maintenance more difficult and expensive.
However the Indian defense community looks at it differently. To them the dealâ€™s government to government approach meant circumventing the long drawn out defense acquisition process and accelerating future acquisitions. It also injected a temporary patch, while buying time for India to explore more options for future purchases which could be from the same vendor or another.
As former Air Marshal M Matheswaran and a member in executive council of Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA), says, â€œThis is a govt. to govt. deal and a limited business deal. Rafale was declared as L1 (lowest bidder) in the competitive selection process more than three years ago. However, the negotiations have been stuck for too long. In order to break the deadlock the government had to by-pass the RFP (request for proposal or global tender) process. The huge costs involved for 126 aircraft and the urgent requirement of a minimum number to meet immediate requirements of the air force were the considerations.â€
Also because this deal did not involve any ToT, the costs were well within limits which actually make a good amount of resources available to the defense ministry. Pegged at some $4.25 billion Dev Mehta, analyst at the Strategic Defense Intelligence (SDI), says the deal for 36 Rafale aircraft actually frees up funds that can partly be used for scaling up production of the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and the faster induction of the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) in collaboration with Russia.
Additionally the French make seems to have an excellent reputation in Indian defense circles. As senior researcher at IDSA, Rajiv Narayan, â€œIt (Rafale) is a preferred weapon of (Indian) air force.â€
For instance Matheswaran dismisses the Brazilian case as a non-issue for India as he says, â€œthe level of AESA radar development and maturity is just about the same all over except in USA. The reason why Brazilians chose NG Gripen was more due to cost advantage and more importantly, the technology transfer that Saab was offering.â€
Military experts like Vijainder K Thakur, a former IAF Jaguar pilot say these jets come with additional features that protect the aircraft against airborne and ground threats. During operations over Libya, French Rafales reportedly operated independently of Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) platforms.
Allaying the concern of complicating the inventory experts say there is a conscious effort towards type reduction because Rafale replaces two existing types - older variant MiG-21s and MiG-27s.
However, Matheswaran agrees over the long run that maintenance costs would be high due to dependence on the OEMs. But he says, â€œThis could be resolved at a later date.â€
More shares for grab
While the deal is done, the suave defense businesses still seem to be hopeful in making a dent in the IAF requirement after the Indian Defense Minister ManoharParrikarâ€™s announcement that while the LCA Tejas is a replacement for MiG-21, there are possibilities of building another single engine fighter under â€˜Make in Indiaâ€™ which could also be a replacement for the MiG-21.
Business Insider reports Swedenâ€™s Saab and US Lockheed Martin are set to re-pitch their Gripen and F-16 planes, eliminated in the Rafale tender, as the kind of lighter, single-engine aircraft that Mr. Manohar Parrikar talked about.
Saab reportedly was even proposing to establish â€œfully-fledged productionâ€ of the Gripen in India alongside a local partner. On the other hand, Lockheed Martin may also tout its F-16, one of the most widely used fighter planes in the world, as a replacement for Russian-made MiGs that are a mainstay in Indiaâ€™s fleet
However, Mehta predicts opportunities for the Su-30MKI (advanced version) are here to stay as the original MMRCA deal falls apart. MiG-35 is a 4 ++ generation aircraft, with a combat capability against air, land and maritime targets, the newer version of the aircraft is now able to carry a heavier load of 6 tonnes as compared to the earlier 4 tonnes.
Nonetheless, future military deals will have to accommodate the â€˜Make in Indiaâ€™ aspect as there will be immense public pressure on the Indian government. The defense circle is already suggesting steps like Maintenance Transfer of Technology (MTOT) for the existing 36 Rafale fighters should go to Indian private vendors.
Reports are already out on the likelihood of the 30 percent offset clause remaining, even in the current deal by which a foreign company has to invest a portion of the deal back into India.
As Wilson Centerâ€™s South Asia expert Michael Kugelman says, while â€œ36 fighter jets is a pretty nice consolation prizeâ€ for Rafale, India wants to strike a balance between defense acquisitions abroad and defense production at home. So in the long run it will want to reduce its dependence on defense exports even though it currently lacks the capacity.
SEAD in libya
what a joke
Well my reading says
No more tender for MMRCA
No more Rafales - 36 - thats it - that too deal not signed yet
the situation for rest of 90 or future thinking of govt is too muddled up / murky at least as far as public domain is concerned .
the 90 day period for completing negotiations for 36 rafales expires on 10th july 2015
Modi is visiting Russia in Mid July
so there will be hectic hardball negotiatons till then and lets see what comes out of Modi russia visit (speeded up FGFA in 36 months, Additional orders for Su30MKi - Su30MK upgradation to Super standard )
the future situation will be clear after modi russia visit as
Any deal with russia will come out then & the 90 day perod of negotiation for 36 with rafale wl be over & more details on pricing etc will be clear
The main lesson that we can learn out of this is that we have to either revamp HAL completely or built another capability in parallel.
HAL has not been able to absorb the technology either for Sukhoi, or Mig or even Dassault in the past. This is a matter of shame. A company which has been building fighter for decades cannot absorb modern technology/is not able to apply the lessons learned from other projects.
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