Will Pakistan Break Up?

[Yusuf]

One veena malik from heera mandi is a bloody nuisance what if they enter in droves?

Why will PakJabis come to India as refugees? They just lose their dominance over Baloch, Pashtuns and may be Sindhis while we get out territories back. Ideal best case scenario

 

[Iamanidiot]

I think Pakjabis will go one step ahead. They will call 'two-nation theory' a blunder and talk about undoing partition. Of course, some preconditions will be put up. Say, seperate muslim electorates atleast in the newly merging areas.

The last time I heard of pakjabi partition atrocities I was unable to sleep for a couple of days i don't was these guys anywhere an inch near the border.

 

[LurkerBaba]

They already are at our border. So no change.

But whaat about the Aman Ka Tamasha people ? Pakistan has disintegrated, need to give shelter to poor refugees of a broken nation

 

[Iamanidiot]

Why will PakJabis come to India as refugees? They just lose their dominance over Baloch, Pashtuns and may be Sindhis while we get out territories back. Ideal best case scenario

territory fine population?.I don't want a perennal headache to the west of our nation

 

[agentperry]

But whaat about the Aman Ka Tamasha people ? Pakistan has disintegrated, need to give shelter to poor refugees of a broken nation

you mean more people under food security bill?

 

[Iamanidiot]

you mean more people under food security bill?

Darn it you ruined it for me.This is another horrifying scenario.Pakistan need a bloody ethnicities war with religious and class sub-divisions.

 

[Yusuf]

territory fine population?.I don't want a perennal headache to the west of our nation

Our territory means PoK, GB.

 

[LurkerBaba]

Pakistan need a bloody ethnicities war with religious and class sub-divisions.

Something like the Great Leap Forward would be nice or a Pol Pot type guy (I have no morals )

 

[agentperry]

Something like the Great Leap Forward would be nice or a Pol Pot type guy (I have no morals )

something like BD

 

[Iamanidiot]

Something like the Great Leap Forward would be nice or a Pol Pot type guy (I have no morals )

Something like taipeng rebellion

 

[johnee]

Nice joke

Not kidding. You think Pakjabis are not capable of such 'transformation'? I think in right conditions, Pakjabis can be very 'malleable'...just look at Veena Mallik...

 

[johnee]

Something like the Great Leap Forward would be nice or a Pol Pot type guy (I have no morals )

Something like taipeng rebellion

I prefer the good ol' 'more Islam'... It has worked wonders for Pakistan.

 

[Param]

Not kidding. You think Pakjabis are not capable of such 'transformation'? I think in right conditions, Pakjabis can be very 'malleable'...just look at Veena Mallik...

They'll rather eat grass for the next 200 years than call the 'two nation theory' a blunder.

 

[SLASH]

No< Paki are Terrorists by birth. If USA could not deal with Talibans, dealing with so many million self destructive terrorists would be a bitter task.

We are not talking about a prolonged war with Pakistan. Something in lines with Cambodia and Laos....

 

[thakur_ritesh]

not sure if ejaz has made a post here or not, but when he suggests it really depends on the US taking a call on this one, i agree with him.

and as he says, for now they have no such plans, and so is the case.

for now breaking pakistan is way too far fetched and the way the dynamics are changing where even russia seems no more hostile to them, breaking pakistan for now is no more than just a dream.

will india ever take a call like the one in '71?

at least in the foreseeable future, unlikely.

there is no country which physically separates parts of pakistan like in '71, nor are the other big players interested as was case in '71, china now is too big, and too dominant to let this happen, russia is not interested in letting its relations with china take a dip, US sees future utility of pakistan and for india its economic growth is too important to let it go off for a war with a country which is in a chaos.

answer at least for now is, no.

 

[SADAKHUSH]

You serious? Saudi is the biggest Taliban backer FYI. It is a Wahhabi country that shares ideology with Taliban. It was the FIRST country to recognize Taliban government. All this jihadi madness you see in South Asia, Caucasus, Southeast Asia, etc is all funded, armed and equipped by Saudi through misusing the name of religious charity.



There is nothing we can do about the nukes unless you're telling we drop a plane full of MARCOs into Pakistan and conduct raid on nuclear installations after months of surveillance and intel gathering. That would be too expensive militarily, politically and financially. Pakistan is paranoid about its nuclear weapons since day 1. They have hidden nukes all over the country. And while it is not a very large country, it is big enough to hide a 100 odd nukes in disassembled form all over. Somehow I get the feeling that there are no nukes in Baluchistan and NWFP. The reason being Pakistani elite from Pakistani Punjab wanting to store all the power around provinces they are confident about. So the concentration of nukes hidden in Punjab, Singh and adjoining areas are more than the southwest and northeastern parts of Pakistan.

I know of their support for Taliban. What I forgot to clarify is that for SA regime the radicals with in their own soil is not acceptable. But it is unavoidable just the way Pakistan use to support lunatics and we all know what they are going to through.

One can put lot of possible scenarios on the paper when it comes to nuclear weapon.How to get them out of their hands will depend upon USA long term goals in the region as well. If they see situation getting out of GOP control than USA will have no choice but take appropriate action. I am quiet sure USA with the network of informants must have collected lots of information to work with. Let us see how things will unfold. At the end of the day nothing is going to happen without USA consent and consultation of SA will also play part.

 

[ejazr]

Well, we discussed this extensively in an earlier thread here
http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/pakistan/17505-letting-pakistan-collapse-option.html

Although its a 2010 thread, I think what I discussed there still holds today and is valid.

Just quoting from one of the posts I made there

"IMO Pakistan may lurch from crisis to crisis, but the two most arguably powerful countries in the world US and China will not let Pakistan collapse (or breakup) for their own reasons. "

 

[ejazr]

@SADAKHUSH and Tshering22

Some facts in history need to be corrected vis a vis Taliban and SA. The first country to recognise the Taliban was Pakistan. The Saudis and the UAE recognised it afterwards being the only other two countries in the world to do so. The main purpose was to keep Iranian influence in check.
However, soon after the Taliban came to power, OBL was forced to move from Sudan back to Afghanistan. This started a long struggle where the Saudis tried to get the Taliban to hand OBL over. When the Taliban refused, the Saudis called back their ambassador from Afghanistan and closed all diplomatic relations with the Taliban around 1999.

Now in the ME, nothing is more concerning to the Saudis than Iranian expansionism. India has in the past decade forged strong ties with the Saudi/GCC block including on terrorism issues under the US umbrella while distancing itself from Iran.

We now have intelligence co-operation were possible terrorists suspects can be arrested and extradited from Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries to India. The most recent happened just last week (The Hindu : News / National : Indian Engineer arrested in Saudi Arabia, deported)

The Saudis have a very unfavourable attitude to the AQ and Taliban now as these groups are anti-Saudi. The fact that the Saudis now in private conversation say that they think 10 times before they share info with the ISI shows that they are uncomfortable with the level of radicalisation with the PA/ISI. The softloans and oil on deferments have stopped although historical military to military ties are maintained even as dependance on Pakistanis in military affairs have been eliminated. Hence the lovefest of sorts that has been going on between the Indo-Saudi establishment behind close doors in the past 4-5 years with the US pushing for this relationship to develop under its umbrella.

Keep in mind that UAE and Qatar actually have troops as part of the ISAF the only other muslim countries apart from Turkey although they have just a few hundred soldiers. The Saudis are planning to spend 60-80 Billion USD in weapons and training mainly from the US, UK and France.

In any case, as I said earlier, what the GCC countries think of Pakistan will hardly matter in an impending collapse or breakup if either or both the US or China decide to allow this to happen. And in the near future, neither of two seem to be moving along that path.

 

[Galaxy]

Saudi Arabia is 'biggest funder of terrorists'

Saudi Arabia is the single biggest contributor to the funding of Islamic extremism and is unwilling to cut off the money supply, according to a leaked note from Hillary Clinton.

The US Secretary of State says in a secret memorandum that donors in the kingdom still "constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide" and that "it has been an ongoing challenge to persuade Saudi officials to treat terrorist financing emanating from Saudi Arabia as a strategic priority".

In a separate diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks last night, the militant group which carried out the Mumbai bombings in 2008, Lashkar-e-Toiba, is reported to have secured money in Saudi Arabia via one of its charity offshoots which raises money for schools.

Saudi Arabia is accused, along with Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, of failing to prevent some of its richest citizens financing the insurgency against Nato troops in Afghanistan. Fund-raisers from the Taliban regularly travel to UAE to take advantage of its weak borders and financial regulation to launder money.

However, it is Saudi Arabia that receives the harshest assessment. The country from which Osama bin Laden and most of the 9/11 terrorists originated, according to Mrs Clinton, "a critical financial support base for al-Qa'ida, the Taliban, Lashkar-e-Toiba and other terrorist groups, including Hamas, which probably raise millions of dollars annually from Saudi sources, often during the Haj and Ramadan".

These pilgrimages, especially the Haj, are described as a "big problem" in another cable dated 29 May 2009. Detailing a briefing from the Saudi interior ministry to Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, it notes: "The Haj is still a major security loophole for the Saudis, since pilgrims often travel with large amounts of cash and the Saudis cannot refuse them entry into Saudi Arabia."

It also quotes one of the officials admitting that the Haj is "a vacuum in our security". The huge annual influx of Muslims from around the world offers a prime opportunity for militants and their donors to enter the kingdom to exchange funds, launder money through front companies and accept money from government-approved charities.

The memo underlines that the US supports the work of Islamic charities, but is frustrated that they are so easily exploited to fund terrorism.

"In 2002, the Saudi government promised to set up a charities committee that would address this issue, but has yet to do so," Mrs Clinton's cable reads, before seeming to admit with disappointment that merely "obtaining Saudi acknowledgement of the scope of this problem and a commitment to take decisive action" has proved hard.

Saudi Arabia is 'biggest funder of terrorists' - Middle East - World - The Independent

Not only Saudi Arabia, Infact, Most of the Islamic countries support, propagate and promote Global terrorism.

 

[Yusuf]

Ejaz, India has to first realize that the break up of Pakistan is in their interests. We dont need the idiots in south block to think otherwise. Once that is done, we have to brainstorm with the US on how 4 nations in that region is going to be beneficial to the US.