Will Pakistan Break Up?

[Yusuf]

Yaar,
the poll should have had a timeline. Will pakistan break up? Absolutely. When is the question. So, a timeline would give a much more accurate picture of member's pulse...

I think it can only be by 2014-2015 or never.

 

[johnee]

I think it can only be by 2014-2015 or never.

Never say never...

Times change, circumstances change and interests change. So, why assume that something will never happen?

I am inclined to believe that Pakistan can break up anytime for any reason.

Anyway, I agree that there is a good chance of Pakistan breaking within 2015. This WOT is turning out to be quite a hell for the pakis after it initially tasted like a heaven.

 

[Yusuf]

Never say never...

Times change, circumstances change and interests change. So, why assume that something will never happen?

I am inclined to believe that Pakistan can break up anytime for any reason.

Anyway, I agree that there is a good chance of Pakistan breaking within 2015. This WOT is turning out to be quite a hell for the pakis after it initially tasted like a heaven.

If it does not happen early. Chinis will be all over Pakistan. Pak will be like an extension of China. A willing subjugate.
Balochistan is the best bet. It Balichistan goes, things will change dramatically over there.

 

[Galaxy]

I think Pakistan will surely break as her Karma has a way to catching up but I don't think it's possible before 2020. Balochistan will be separate nation and P.O.K. will administrated by India.

Until and unless A'than becomes strong & united nation, Pakistan will continue to HOLD her own defined Durand Line area. Punjab + Sindh will be real Pakistan or better i say only Pakistan. (I am not sure if Sindh will be separated)

 

[IBSA]

I think Pak will break because there a world tendency to fragmentation of countries. The world great powers follow the classical politics of "to divide for to reign", trying to transform the world on a lot of small and weak states. with ascension of a middle powers group is necessary to create influence spheres for all them. And there aren't enough space to another power than India in South Asia.

 

[johnee]

If it does not happen early. Chinis will be all over Pakistan. Pak will be like an extension of China. A willing subjugate.
Balochistan is the best bet. It Balichistan goes, things will change dramatically over there.

It is not as easy as it sounds for China to take over Pakistan. Pakistan is becoming uncontrollable. It is uncontrollable for US. It is uncontrollable for PA. It is uncontrollable for even Islamists. Then, how will it be controllable for Chinis?

By general standards, Pakistan cannot be considered a single nation. It is like a group of tribes with different overlords loosely bound together. Each tribe(or group) is trying to establish its supremacy. PA is the biggest group and strongest group rightnow. That is because, PA is funded and armed by US. But China aint US. US was and is quite generous to PA. Can China match the performance of US? I doubt it.

 

[agentperry]

i dont think pakistan will break.
1) they as a nation still have establishment in which people have faith- army.
if army says a thing then whole of the nation forgets every thing and unite- in balochistan, there are two population, one which is against pakistan rule and other is with pakistan just like in kashmir.
2) the nation finds its existence in its enemy, be it India or usa, they always harmonize with there countrymen to stand up against their enemy
3) they have low expectation. this helps an individual to stay calm even when he is in dismal position and community by staying happy and united.
4) enemy is either courteous or weak while supporter is strong and supportive.
5) there information industry is not poor but gets enough money from mid-east who wants this country to live on- even at the cost of severe radicalization.
6) the muslim spirit of standing together out of home, they sought out there differences behind closed doors .


then what to do?

a pakistani wont break pakistan but an Indian will or someone who had links with india.
in case of bangladesh it was biharis and bangali migrants and in case of pakistan it will be mohajirs, but it all depend upon stupidity on part of PA, like they did in 1990s and in 71.

 

[Param]

It is not as easy as it sounds for China to take over Pakistan. Pakistan is becoming uncontrollable. It is uncontrollable for US. It is uncontrollable for PA. It is uncontrollable for even Islamists. Then, how will it be controllable for Chinis?

By general standards, Pakistan cannot be considered a single nation. It is like a group of tribes with different overlords loosely bound together. Each tribe(or group) is trying to establish its supremacy. PA is the biggest group and strongest group rightnow. That is because, PA is funded and armed by US. But China aint US. US was and is quite generous to PA. Can China match the performance of US? I doubt it.

Only Pakistan?

Anyway what another member said regarding the time line 2014-15 is correct. The Chinese and Russians will replace US as the ones preventing the western neighbor from collapsing.

 

[Yusuf]

But China aint US. US was and is quite generous to PA. Can China match the performance of US? I doubt it.

Hence the timeline. The US is a bit weak economically (being kind), and China is rising. China will be forced to spoon feed Pak when it realizes its strategic importance.

While everything is dynamic in world affairs and things can change, but still I would say China will be forced to feed Pak.I need to read the rules.
I need to read the rules.

 

[Iamanidiot]

Yusuf in case of a break-up what do we do with the refuge problem??Blow them up.The lawhore citizens might want to visit India

 

[Yusuf]

Yusuf in case of a break-up what do we do with the refuge problem??Blow them up.The lawhore citizens might want to visit India

I don't think Blaoch will come to India. Nor will the Pashtun.

 

[Iamanidiot]

I don't think Blaoch will come to India. Nor will the Pashtun.

Pakjabis at the border are a problem

 

[agentperry]

I don't think Blaoch will come to India. Nor will the Pashtun.

no one will come to India, if they choose to fight for different set up then why migrate after getting it

 

[johnee]

Hence the timeline. The US is a bit weak economically (being kind), and China is rising. China will be forced to spoon feed Pak when it realizes its strategic importance.

While everything is dynamic in world affairs and things can change, but still I would say China will be forced to feed Pak.I need to read the rules.
I need to read the rules.

What is the strategic importance of Pak? Is it worth the funds, time and energy invested into it? Are the liabilities also being taken into consideration?

I think Pak was important as long as the upkeep was relatively small and the returns large. This equation is changing with Pak going down the drain, economic recession, and India's rise. So, pak is no more as important as it was. To China, upkeep of Pak and maintaining its stability and viability can prove very hard. It can have blowback effects(Ulighar).

Earlier, one could pay a paki(in uniform) and rely on him to get the work done, keep pakis united, keep poor pakis from revolting, keep radical pakis focused on India. But this is no more possible. It is precisely for this reason that US is unable to manage Pak. So, how will China succeed? Who will it depend on to get the work done? Can that person or group get the work done? Is it worth the risk for China? Is it worth the investment(that would be demanded and billed by the pakis)?

If US turns against Pak, then it introduces a new dynamic. Will a hostile US leave Pak intact to be used by China?

 

[Yusuf]

Pakjabis at the border are a problem

They already are at our border. So no change.

 

[Iamanidiot]

Everyone is thinking about break-up Iam asking what after that?.The pakjabi surely will try to cross the border and they are the slimiest of the bunch

 

[Yusuf]

What is the strategic importance of Pak? Is it worth the funds, time and energy invested into it? Are the liabilities also being taken into consideration?

I think Pak was important as long as the upkeep was relatively small and the returns large. This equation is changing with Pak going down the drain, economic recession, and India's rise. So, pak is no more as important as it was. To China, upkeep of Pak and maintaining its stability and viability can prove very hard. It can have blowback effects(Ulighar).

Earlier, one could pay a paki(in uniform) and rely on him to get the work done, keep pakis united, keep poor pakis from revolting, keep radical pakis focused on India. But this is no more possible. It is precisely for this reason that US is unable to manage Pak. So, how will China succeed? Who will it depend on to get the work done? Can that person or group get the work done? Is it worth the risk for China? Is it worth the investment(that would be demanded and billed by the pakis)?

If US turns against Pak, then it introduces a new dynamic. Will a hostile US leave Pak intact to be used by China?

Because of India's rise, a sinking Pak is an asset to protect. The US has been pussyfooting. Will it get into Pakistan? Will it go all out against Pak?

 

[johnee]

Everyone is thinking about break-up Iam asking what after that?.The pakjabi surely will try to cross the border and they are the slimiest of the bunch

I think Pakjabis will go one step ahead. They will call 'two-nation theory' a blunder and talk about undoing partition. Of course, some preconditions will be put up. Say, seperate muslim electorates atleast in the newly merging areas.

 

[Yusuf]

I think Pakjabis will go one step ahead. They will call 'two-nation theory' a blunder and talk about undoing partition. Of course, some preconditions will be put up. Say, seperate muslim electorates atleast in the newly merging areas.

Nice joke

 

[Iamanidiot]

They already are at our border. So no change.

One veena malik from heera mandi is a bloody nuisance what if they enter in droves?