Will Pakistan become Egypt after Raymond Davis exit

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by Blackwater, Feb 9, 2011.

  1. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Hi Friends.

    I feel as soon as Raymond Davis released under pressure from USA. Revolt against govt starts as we see in Egypt.

    Pls share your views
     
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  3. prahladh

    prahladh Respected Member

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    Funny thing is why Egypt & Tunisia are in trouble and none in Pak even with the mess they are. May be all that we Indians hear bad about Pak is inflated.
     
  4. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Well, there are lots of countries in a mess worse than Pakistan, or at least as bad. Revolutions don't just happen everywhere! It needs a trigger, and events unfolding in distant countries like Egypt are not a likely trigger. Something like Davis release is a more likely trigger.
     
  5. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Prahlad, there are a lot of pre-requisites required in triggering a rebellion or revolution in any country no matter how big or small. The things needed for a revolution are:

    -Ideology: A concept that is totally unique and brings a total change in the thinking of each citizen
    - Leadership: an embodiment of the ideology who spearheads the revolution
    -Support base: the adoption of this ideology to such a level that it creates a foundation for the movement to spread
    - Funding: no revolutions are possible without financial backing, contribution or assistance from participants, patrons or supporters.
    -Commitment: A determination to the ideology for the cause to the end which in turn complements the whole thinking of the revolution.

    Pakistan has NONE of these elements to start a revolution. Let me explain in the same order as above:

    1- Ideology

    Pakistan itself was an ideology that had little base since the very beginning. Jinnah and his political backers who started the concept of Pakistan, themselves had no idea how to be founders and on what basis establish the nation of Pakistan. Jinnah is often praised to be secular and inspired by Mustafa Kemal of Turkey. This is only applicable to his own self. He drank, smoked ate pork and did everything Muslim doesn't do. But he failed to spread this to people. The people were left with only one thing; Islam. Now this carving out was to be done in the opposite direction of what culture the parent nation i.e. India had since its thousands and thousands of years of history. To meet the other shortcomings of identity, Pakistanis adopted a Mughal and hence quasi-foreign language Urdu (mix of Persian, Pushto, Sanskrit and some Turkish), converted all Indian concepts with a quasi-Islamic twist and called this new ideology Pakistan.

    Now in present scenario, there is simply no change seen in the ideology of Pakistanis than the first that Jinnah had: Islam. Today there is no ideology at all to be revolutionizing on. Eliminating organized religion: is considered blasphemy and can get you killed; Communism: again akin to blasphemy; Secularism (Genuine): neutralizes the whole reason for them to separate from India in first place since we are secular state (actually pseudo-secular, but still). So tell me what new ideology can be so strong for Pakistanis to bank on for a serious revolution? Nothing.

    2-Leadership

    This is laughable if one sees carefully. Who is going to lead this revolution? Nawaz Sharif? Imran Khan? Zardari? Gilani? Kayani? Musharaf? Bilawal? :lol: There is simply no leadership that has planned anything along the lines of core ideology to carry out a revolution. Even today, there are multiple centers of power running the country: one side TTP is claiming sharia rule for Pakistan, other side Zardari and Gilani are ruling the country via farce elections, another side Gul and Kayani are calling off all the shots... there is simply no center of authority and each political party, each region has a new center of power claiming to be absolute. And this is the current national status. So what to make of leader for a revolution?

    3- Support base

    The common people. They have lost all hopes and those who've not are losing it faster than ever no matter how many internet "warrior Pakistanis" here deny this. Industries shut down, no power, no gas, no water, no electricity, no jobs, no safety, no money, no business. And on top of this, crime, terrorism, suicide bombings, street mullas, fatwa factories opened and MOST of all NO LEADER TO BANK ON. It is a miracle how mass suicides are not happening in such a situation.

    4- Funding

    The nation doesn't even have the funds to function as a normal state; people are kicked out of jobs en masse, industries are not running and most of all SUPPORT BASE in first place has not found ground at all. Where will the funds come from? Whatever Pakistan is functioning right now as a state is because of USAID and the occasional aid Chinese, Saudi and other Arabs give Pakistan. So how to fund a revolution?

    5- Commitment

    Amidst all the chaos that is going on, what commitment is one expect? And who will want to make it worse? Think about it; that nation exists on the paranoia that we are going to strike and annex them and that they have to exist separate from us at all costs. This is the phobia that keeps them as they are existing right now itself. The common man thinks that we are waiting for internal chaos (which is already happening but they don't accept this) to take over them. So what commitment he will have to make an upheaval in an already disastrous state? None.

    ________________________________________

    As Bangalorean would say about Raymond Davis being released would trigger a revolution, this is wrong. It is simply not possible because of above 5 points. His release will mean more violence spilling onto Karachi streets, riots, killings, target attacks, suicide bombings, fatwas and pandemonium in an already volatile city that happens to be their financial center and the heart of its existence. Apart from all the above that will happen for sure 100% if Davis gets out, nothing major will happen positive direction. The country has gone so deep in mindless violence, religious fanaticism, social intolerance, culture confusion, identity crisis, environmental paranoia and over-analyzing even an ant's death that this will only increase the cycle of violence in the city... it cannot come out of this because it has been ingrained in them for 63 years.. all of this.

    All while Davis will catch the first flight back to US to his family and comfortable home.
     
  6. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Bhai, if u study that hard in your school you would have become DC by now
     
  7. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Hahahaha! I am quite happy with my profession since I am what I wanted to be ( becoming a commando was an idea once but changed my mind since practically almost all my cousin males of my age group are in military somehow or the other). I studied quite hard, boss. Though was one of the "above average/ good" student type at school, not the nerd or the excellent one. :D
     
  8. Parthy

    Parthy Air Warrior Senior Member

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    Kerry, Obama play good cop-bad cop to free 'diplomat' Davis from Pak clutches

    Some muscular coercion, a muffled apology, and an additional few hundred million dollars in aid appears to have paved way for a resolution between United States and Pakistan of the Raymond Davis affair that is threatening to derail ties between the mutually mistrustful allies.

    The modalities of how Davis, the "Diplomat," will be freed are being worked out even as the two sides prepare to face the sulfurous fallout from the episode. The Pakistani street is expected to erupt in protest against release of former special forces agent accused of killing two Pakistanis suspected of being ISI tails.

    The big question haunting Washington and Islamabad is whether the outburst will assume the proportions of the upheaval in Tunisia and Egypt and consume the weak government in Islamabad, bringing to power Islamist forces and jeopardizing US operations in Afghanistan.

    The US is expected to argue its case for Davis' immunity and release at a hearing Thursday at the Lahore High Court, after the Pakistani government formally indicated on Tuesday that it had determined he enjoyed diplomatic protection, a ruling Islamabad avoided making for fear of public backlash.

    The Pakistani softening came after US President Barack Obama and Democratic Senator John Kerry played the good cop-bad cop routine on a drama-filled Tuesday. In a White House press conference, Obama left no doubt that the US will use every instrument of power and pressure to force Islamabad to release Davis, who he described as "our diplomat in Pakistan."

    "We've got a very simple principle here that every country in the world that is party to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations has upheld in the past and should uphold in the future, and that is if our diplomats are in another country, then they are not subject to that country's local prosecution. We respect it with respect to diplomats who are here. We expect Pakistan, that's a signatory and recognize Mr. Davis as a diplomat, to abide by the same convention," Obama declared in a stern admonition, after weeks of Pakistani gamesmanship on the matter.

    Asked "how serious have your threats been to the Pakistani government if they don't hand him over," Obama responded "Well, I'm not going to discuss the specific exchanges that we've had. But we've been very firm about this being an important priority." It was President Obama's first comment on the matter.

    Around the same time as Obama's forbidding ultimatum, US Senator John Kerry rushed to Lahore with a more placatory approach, expressing sorrow and regret about the loss of Pakistani lives in the incident and promising an investigation into the Davis incident even after he is returned to the US.

    "We cannot allow one incident to break apart a much stronger bond that deals with millions of people in Pakistan, for whom we want to try to help build energy projects, new jobs, decent homes, education and healthcare," Kerry, who has engineered vast amounts of US aid to Pakistan, told reporters in Lahore.

    Obama too was conciliatory to a degree, saying "We're concerned about the loss of life. We're not callous about that," but insisting "there's a broader principle at stake that I think we have to uphold" while referring to the Vienna Conventions. He repeatedly described Davis as a diplomat, although U.S and Pakistani accounts say he is a former special forces officer who went into the security business and became a member of the US mission's "administrative and technical" staff.

    The twin Obama-Kerry moves were accompanied by well-publicized disclosure from the 2011 budget documents that the U.S was cranking up its aid to Pakistan to over $ 3 billion in the coming year, which would make it among the largest recipients of U.S foreign aid almost on par with Israel.

    Kerry is expected to meet Pakistan's President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani and Army Chief Kayani on Wednesday to argue on behalf of Davis and seek a resolution to the dispute.



    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...vis-from-Pak-clutches/articleshow/7507788.cms
     
  9. Welcome

    Welcome Regular Member

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    No...it is not possible in pakistan..Pakistan already faced more Horrible situation than Raymond Davis case even they are facing this type of situation since more than 60 year, i don't think so it can make any little effect on Pak people. However there is lot of different b/w Egyptian and pakistani. most of Egyptian's are not Islamic extremist but there is lot of islamic extremist in pakistan, that's why i think pakistan can not face any revolution in next 10-20 year.
     
  10. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    'CIA-ISI ties plunge to all-time low'

    WASHINGTON: Ties between US and Pakistan intelligence agencies have hit an all time low due to standoff over the arrest of American official Raymond Davis on murder charge compromising critical counter-terrorism operations including drone strikes targeting top terror leaders.

    The state of relations, while never being perfect, is now alarming, Wall Street Journal reported, quoting top US security officials who said the tensions are costing US the chance to hit key terrorists in the region.

    US officials say the Pakistan's ISI is no longer providing the targeting information and as a result there have been no drone attacks in Pakistan's turbulent tribal region since January 23.

    The Wall Street Journal said US intelligence officials suggest that the sharp drop in strikes may be because CIA is having trouble in pinpointing new 'Haqqani' network targets, either because the militants have gone deeper into hiding or have moved to new areas, possibly with the help of ISI.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...lunge-to-all/time-low/articleshow/7525803.cms
     
  11. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Davis issue could spark Egypt-style revolution in Pakistan: Imran Khan

    NEW YORK: The case of American official Raymond Davis, arrested for double murder in Lahore last month, could spark an Egypt-style revolution in Pakistan, cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan has said.

    Contradicting reports have emerged regarding Davis, some claiming that he had "close links" with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan while others said the US official "was part of a covert, CIA-led team of operatives conducting surveillance on militant groups deep inside the country."

    "This is not an ordinary situation," Khan told the Time. "If he (Davis) is returned to the US under diplomatic immunity, it might trigger the revolution off."

    37-year-old Davis, arrested in Lahore on January 27 for killing two men he claimed were trying to rob him, is currently in jail in Pakistan.

    The US had demanded the release of Davis contending that he is an "administrative and technical official" attached to its Lahore consulate and that he enjoys diplomatic immunity.

    However, Khan suggested that Pakistan was ripe for an uprising. "I think Pakistan is completely ready for it," he said, adding, "In fact, it's even more ready than Egypt was."

    Following the overthrow of leaders in Tunisia and Egypt, large-scale protests have erupted in several countries in the region including Bahrain, Yemen and Libya.

    Observers have wondered how far the call for change will spread in the Muslim world.

    The media report pointed out that, unlike Egypt, Pakistan has had three years of civilian democracy, a lively media, and other political freedoms that allow its citizens to dissent. But Khan asserted that youth in Pakistan suffer many of the same problems as their counterparts in Egypt.

    "Never in our history have we had such levels of corruption and such bad governance," Khan claimed, slamming the economic and political situation in the country as well.

    "You can see the whole thing already bubbling under surface," he added.

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...n-Pakistan-Imran-Khan/articleshow/7548413.cms
     

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