will Iran and India be afghanistan's plan B ?

Discussion in 'Afghanistan' started by Haman10, Mar 11, 2014.

  1. Haman10

    Haman10 Regular Member

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    This is a landmark year for Afghanistan. After more than a decade of war, the country is set to transition into a new era, one it hopes will be less turbulent and will offer the beleaguered nation peace, stability and growth. Over the coming year, Afghanistan is scheduled to undergo a political transition, courtesy the presidential elections due in April, and a security transition (already underway), with the full withdrawal of international combat troops by the end of this year.

    While the political process is underway and is seen as more of an internal decision for the Afghan people to make, the security transition holds the key to a secure future for Afghanistan. Critical to this is the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the U.S. Although the BSA has been finalized and was even cleared by a loya jirga (an assembly of elders) in Afghanistan last November, President Hamid Karzai has not been willing to sign it, much to the frustration of Washington, which warns that a “zero option” could have adverse consequences for Afghanistan’s security post 2014. With the current impasse unlikely to be broken soon, Karzai is looking at “Plan B” options. In this context, Iran and India may have a role to play. Given their strategic interests in Afghanistan as well as trends over the past months, these two countries could well offer Afghanistan a critical lifeline during a period of transition and uncertainty.

    Events in recent months indicate to three clear policy strands. First, Karzai is unwilling to sign the BSA soon (at least until the April presidential elections) and is looking for bigger bargains. Second, visits by Karzai and his ministers to Iran and India in recent months are clearly aimed at shoring up support in a situation where U.S. military support may not be forthcoming. And third Karzai is now hedging his bets when it comes to direct talks with the Taliban given the absence of any clear initiative by the U.S. In all of these initiatives, India and Iran could be key players.

    Take Karzai’s trips to India and Iran in December last year. Both visits came after the BSA was passed by a loya jirga and, interestingly, shortly after Iran and the U.S.-led P5+1 had signed an interim deal on the Iran nuclear issue. While in Iran, Karzai found support when President Hassan Rouhani declared, “We are concerned about the tensions arising from the presence of foreign forces in the region and believe that all foreign forces should exit the region and Afghanistan’s security should be ceded to the people of that country.” Coming from Iran at that juncture, it was a major show of support for Karzai. The two countries also agreed to sign a “pact of friendship and cooperation,” which could include aspects of political, security cooperation and economic development. This would complement a separate border and security agreement signed earlier in August.

    Karzai’s visit to India immediately after this, on December 13, was aimed not only at consolidating support but also at pleading for increased military assistance. In his previous visit to New Delhi in May 2013, he had handed over a wish list of lethal and non-lethal military aid from India that included artillery guns, helicopters and armored tanks. In his December trip, he not only reiterated his requests but is reported to have asked India for a more proactive involvement in getting the Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) ready to take on the Taliban post 2014. India confirmed its commitment to deepening defense and security cooperation, through enhancements in training, meeting the equipment and infrastructure needs of ANSF and opportunities for higher military education in India for Afghan officers. While emphasizing the need to sign the BSA, India refrained from putting any overt pressure on Karzai, stating that it shared his wish to have the BSA, but will not be “prescriptive, intrusive or judgmental.”

    While Iran and India have always been potential alternatives for Afghanistan, it is only in the past few months that Kabul seems to have been getting traction on this option. The Iran nuclear deal has perhaps unshackled some of the constraints India may have felt seeking Iran’s support in finding an optimal solution for Afghanistan. The meeting of Indian National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon with Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif on February 1 at the Munich Conference to discuss recent developments in Afghanistan was significant. Discussion centered on India-Iran cooperation in dealing with the situation in Afghanistan, especially in the context of the rift between Washington and Karzai. Iranian President Rouhani is likely to dispatch the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, to Delhi soon to discuss the issue. Reports of direct talks between Karzai and the Taliban have also evoked a positive response in India, leading to the likelihood of India’s foreign minister vising Kabul in March 2014. With India as its most trusted ally and an “all-weather friend” and Iran as an immediate neighbor and part of its political and cultural history, Afghanistan is clearly working on a simultaneous plan to secure its post-2014 future, with or without a BSA with the U.S. With their strategic interests and cordial relations with Kabul, India and Iran will be critical to a peaceful transition for Afghanistan post 2014 and could well be that country’s Plan B.

    Could Iran and India be Afghanistan’s ‘Plan B?’ | The Diplomat

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    the news is abt a month old , but my point for creating its thread was that i feel india and iran should be afghanistans plan A not B

    US had done nothing but massacre and drone strikes in afghanistan , whereas Iran for example had generously given billions of dollars in aid to afghanistan , in a timeline that iran was under the harshest sanctions and was struggling to keep its own economy up and running !! there is nothing that we want in repayment but friendship of afghans . we are the same nation , we both speak the same language , our cultures are almost the same and .........

    what iran and india expect from afghanistan in return is nothing but trust !! we just need them to trust their most powerful and honest allies .

    louie jarga shouldnt be afraid of US in its decision making cause there countries who will back afghanistan whatever happens

    this was IMHO .
     
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  3. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    @Haman10 India and Afghanistan are already working on Afghanistan by building trade routes and Chahabar port.

    [​IMG]

    India, Iran look to boost relations on Afghanistan
    NEW DELHI: India is actively seeking Iran's cooperation in dealing with the situation in Afghanistan, where the Taliban have been emboldened by the growing rift between the US and President Hamid Karzai, not deterred by the recent hiccups in ties with the energy rich country. Responding to India's sentiment, the moderate Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, will soon be sending the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, to Delhi for talks on the issue.

    National security advisor Shivshankar Menon met Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif on Saturday to discuss the issue of regional stability in light of recent developments in war-ravaged Afghanistan. Menon also emphasised on the importance of the deep-sea Chabahar port -- which will see India investing $100 million -- and the accompanying north-south transit corridor for both the countries.

    Chabahar is of immense strategic significance to India as the project will allow it crucial and cost-effective access to both Afghanistan and Central Asia. Officials said the meeting with Zarif took place on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Global Power and Regional Stability. A highly respected diplomat internationally, Zarif spoke about the rich cultural and historical links between the two countries and how President Rouhani believed that the two countries could together play a crucial role in regional peace.
    Zarif also told Menon that Shamkhani will soon visit India to carry forward these discussions. Shamkhani is Menon's counterpart. He had also served as defence minister and chief of the Revolutionary Guards navy in the past. The Revolutionary Guards was at the centre of a row between the two countries last year after it, according to India, illegally detained an Indian ship carrying crude from Iraq. Foreign minister Salman Khurshid took up the issue with President Rouhani in a meeting in Bishkek later. Rouhani, however, assured India that there was no political motive behind the detention.

    India has also been looking to further intensify its engagements with Iran since the November 2013 interim nuclear agreement between Tehran and the P5 +1 countries. The prospect of an easing of sanctions imposed by the west though is yet to show in Indian crude imports from Iran which went down by 40% last year.

    Speaking later at the Munich conference, Menon said India's primary interest is to create an enabling external environment for the transformation of the country. "That requires a peaceful periphery and a stable international environment which is supportive of India's security, growth and development. In other words, we seek a reduction in regional tensions, wherever they may be, an open and democratised international order, and more effective and representative global institutions,'' he said.

    India, Iran look to boost relations on Afghanistan - The Times of India
     
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  4. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    India offers to build direct shipping route to Iran port
    [​IMG]
    India has offered to establish direct shipping route to Iran’s southeastern Chabahar Port in a bid to cut the costs of the transit of commodities between the two countries.

    The offer was made during a meeting between Iran’s Minister of Road and Urban Development Abbas Akhoundi and an Indian delegation of experts in Tehran on Sunday.

    Indian Ambassador to Tehran Shri D.P. Srivastava, who was present in the meeting, said an Indian private company is ready to establish a direct shipping link between Chabahar and Indian ports in order to bypass Dubai where Indian container ships have to cross to reach Iran.

    The Indian diplomat said the capital investment initially envisaged for the construction of a container terminal in Chabahar stands at USD 147 million.

    Srivastava described Chabahar as a strategic port facilitating access to Central Asian states.

    India’s state-run Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust sent the expert team to Iran last December to accelerate work on Chabahar Port with a view to facilitating New Delhi's access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

    The team has since been conducting technical and commercial assessment.

    Iran’s Chabahar Port, located 72 kilometers (44 miles) west of Pakistan’s Gwadar port, holds immense strategic and economic significance for India.

    The port is already connected to the city of Zaranj in Afghanistan’s southwestern province of Nimruz and can serve as India’s entry point to Afghanistan, Central Asia and beyond.

    Last November, Afghan Ambassador to New Delhi Shaida Mohammad Abdali said his government is eager to sign an agreement with Iran and India for the transit of commodities to Afghanistan.
    PressTV - India offers to build direct shipping route to Iran port
     
  5. Haman10

    Haman10 Regular Member

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    YES bro , but my point was that US because of its military threats agianst afghanistan has more influence on organizations like louie jarga than iran and india

    and thats a bummer
     
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  6. janme

    janme Regular Member

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    How India will get acess to Central Asia??
     
  7. Neo

    Neo Senior Member Senior Member

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    Only viable solution to link India wih CAR is to bypass Afghanistan and link Chahbahar via Zahidan and Mashad to Ashkabat and the rest of CAR.
     
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  8. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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  9. janme

    janme Regular Member

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    And How will India bypass Afghanistan and Pakistan??
     
  10. janme

    janme Regular Member

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  11. Neo

    Neo Senior Member Senior Member

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  12. janme

    janme Regular Member

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    There are many threads on Pakistani forums which says that it will be devloped as an economic corridor and will be even linked to Russia.
     
  13. Neo

    Neo Senior Member Senior Member

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    Combination of land and sea route only. Chahbahar and Mashad are already linked by road wij Ashkabat.
     
  14. janme

    janme Regular Member

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    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  15. Neo

    Neo Senior Member Senior Member

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    Both Pakistan and Iran have the desire to develop their ports to the standard of Dubai and become an international hub and gateway to CAR.
    Iran's international isolation worked in favor of Gwadar but with sanctions being eased, this could be a great opportunity for Iran to invest heavily in Chahbahar and persuade China to make it an energy and trade hub as well.
     
  16. janme

    janme Regular Member

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    See i got more info......

    News.Az - India, Azerbaijan plan dry run on North-South transport corridor for March
     
  17. Jagdish58

    Jagdish58 Regular Member

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    Im preety sure there will bombings & sucide attack on strategic assets of both India & Iran by Taliban & ISI nexus, then what happens??

    Can the two country afford to take Military action , Provided two Super powers Soviet Union & US have not been able to completely remove terror from Afghanistan:rolleyes:

    Afghanistan is very harsh place to do business:thumb:
     
  18. Neo

    Neo Senior Member Senior Member

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    As the energy hungry countries like China and India continue to secure future supplies we will see construction of some of biggest pipelines through land and sea in near future. It's in India's strategic interest to have a network of few big pipelines from CAR, Azarbaijan, Iran, Qatar, UAE to Oman where India should build another port or preferably a military base and build an underwater pipeline from Oman to Gujrati ports.

    China has already signed deals worth $200 billion with Iran and once the Sino-Pak energy corridor is established, more countries would be interested into linking Gwadar to their oil/gas fields.

    India should not wait to long, it will only put her energy supplies on further risk.
     
  19. Haman10

    Haman10 Regular Member

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    No , the difference between iran/india to US/soviets in relation to afghanistan is exactly the same thing

    We are not seeking expansionist agenda in afghanistan
     
  20. Neo

    Neo Senior Member Senior Member

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    Afghanistan is a no go as southern half is already in the hands of taliban and a new civil war is iminent next year.
    Therefor bypass Afghanistan and go for land/sea route via Iran to CAR directly.
     
  21. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    Western/Northern Afghanistan that borders Iran aka Herat et al are firmly anti-Taliban.

    Its only Pak bordering Eastern/Souther Afghanistan that is Talibani.
     
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