Will China take advantage of the Pentagon's budget cuts?

Discussion in 'China' started by ejazr, Jan 8, 2011.

  1. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    This Week at War: Gates's China Syndrome

    The U.S. secretary of defense believes that better military relations with Beijing can help avoid an arms race. But is that what the Chinese want?

    Will China listen to Gates?

    On Jan. 9, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates will leave on a three day visit to China, where he will meet with his counterparts in the Chinese government. According to Gates's spokesperson, the trip is "aimed at improving our mutual understanding and reducing the risk of miscalculation." Achieving a sustained military-to-military relationship between the United States and China has long been a goal of Gates. For the secretary, the ultimate purpose of such a relationship is to avoid a wasteful and potentially dangerous arms race between the two powers. What remains to be seen is whether Gates's hosts have the same view and whether they currently have much incentive to listen to their guest.

    As a trained historian and former Cold Warrior, Gates is well aware of the costs and dangers of military competitions among great powers. Now in the eleventh hour of what will presumably be his last tour of public service, Gates is hoping that a system of regular contact between U.S. and Chinese defense officials will increase transparency, reduce suspicion, and ease the pressure that would otherwise push for greater military preparation on both sides. Gates is now deeply immersed in defense budget planning and feels the pressure smaller budgets will place on U.S. forces. Should Gates be able to avert an arms race with China, he would achieve a success that would eclipse those he may yet achieve in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    For Gates, the U.S.-China military relationship benefits both sides and should logically be a high priority for both countries. Unfortunately, Chinese behavior on this issue does not support that view. In recent years, China has viewed Gates's desire for the relationship as mostly a U.S. interest, which Beijing has alternately granted and then withdrawn as a bargaining chip. The most recent such power play occurred a year ago after the Obama administration approved a weapon sale package to Taiwan. After much pleading from Gates in 2010, Beijing agreed to restart the meetings. With the Chinese having broken off the relationship in the past, another flare-up seems likely to cause a new shutdown in the channel. It seems clear that Gates and his Chinese counterparts assign different values to the military-to-military relationship.

    If the United States is to avoid an arms race with China, it may need a different approach than merely assuming that the Chinese also want to avoid that race. Chinese policymakers may have concluded that the coming decade is no time for China to restrain its military production. Important new Chinese systems such as an anti-ship ballistic missile, a fifth-generation stealth fighter, new submarine models, and an aircraft carrier are completing their research and development phases. By contrast, the U.S. government is under severe financial strain and will have to impose more cuts in weapons procurement. It did not help Gates's negotiating leverage when, just prior to his departure for Beijing, photographs of tests of China's new stealth fighter appeared in the media and Adm. Robert Willard, Gates's commander in the Pacific, announced that China's medium range anti-ship ballistic missile -- the so-called "aircraft carrier killer" -- had achieved "initial operational capability." Gates, by contrast, held a press conference at the Pentagon three days before his departure to Beijing where he announced more spending cuts.

    Gates continues to hope that a sustained military-to-military relationship between the United States and China will allow both sides to discuss their intentions and thus avoid dangerous misunderstandings. But he and other U.S. policymakers have to reckon with the possibility that China intends to use the upcoming period of retrenchment at the Pentagon to close the gap with U.S. military power in the region. If that's the case, U.S. policymakers will need to rethink their assumptions.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2011
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  3. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    well, Yankee's agenda has nothing to do with CHina's.

    Yankees cut its defence expenditure simpley because its poor economy can not afford it anymore.

    Chinese economy is still prospering and growed 10% last year...so why should CHina stop increasing its defence expendure just due to Yankee's appeal?
     
  4. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    chinise are not fool they know how to move in right direction
     
  5. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    The amount of cut announced is equal to chinese defense budget. How is it going to affect anyone? Its not going to degrade any capability of the US.
     
  6. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    The budget cuts are just trimming the fat,China is in no position to take advantage of anything for 2 simple reasons
    1)US military budget is still ten times bigger tha China's
    2)USA is still technologically 30-50 years ahead of China in most weapon platforms.
     
  7. redragon

    redragon Regular Member

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    Totally agree, China is still lagging far behind in terms of military budget, there is no so-called advantage exist.
     
  8. houde10000

    houde10000 Regular Member

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    It will cost you around 25$ to get hair cut in usa, the same hair cut you only pay 3$ in china. Hope this could give you an quick idea, how different between usa and China. USA 700 billion dollar compare with China 80 billions, it doesn't really have 9 time differency, the max reasonable difference is around two or three time.
     
  9. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Bad logic.China nowhere has the tecnical R&D or the littoral capability of the US and 25$ in USA and 3$ in china is preAt most the budget cut is about slashing funding to new projects it nowhere states there will be a slash in the US current force levels
     
  10. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    It must be understood that the US will not abdicate its position as the superpower of the world.

    It must also be understood that the US has done the defence cut, after weighing all options and their strategic needs and the lead they have in weaponry to remain the predominant power in all regions of the world.
     
  11. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    one new F16 cost 70M USD while one new J10 is reported to cost only 150 M RMB(25M USD according to current exchange rate) .

    one Phalcon AWAC costs 400M USD while one KJ2000 merely costs 400M RMB now....

    One F35 is expected to cost 300M USD. I don't think one J20 will cost 2 Billion RMB.
     
  12. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    China is an enigma wrapped inside an enigma sir.They gloat about their GDP at the same time on closer investigation we know its 20-30% overstated thats a huge margin.They are humble and arrogant at the same time.I think they are nowhere in a position to challenge US anytime soon
     
  13. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    The US fields tested platforms in combat what about China?

    The F-35 is a bird flying in the sky what abiut the J-20?we only saw a photograph

    The F-16 is an extremely tested platform in Combat what about the J-10?

    The US has been there ,done that,seen it.Where is China?
     
  14. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    you will regret saying so soon..

    CHina's nominal GDP will surpass USD before 2020....otherwise, I would eat my keyborad .
     
  15. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Monsieur Armand and the wikileaks leak vindicate my point.You only blurted about China yourself BG how its in a phase of eternal construction best example accquiring your parents house (that they built with their blood and bones literally) with a compensation of a peanut.The CCP county officials seems to an extremely bloody bunch that i can understand.
     
  16. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    you have ate enough keyboards go on a diet.
     
  17. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    two questions first how old are you and how big is your keyboard just in case 2020 arrives.
     
  18. silkroad

    silkroad New Member

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    If what you said is true, those who are complaining should be our parents, but not from the so-called "dissidents" employed by US and broadcast in the brainwash machine. If they release all the Wikileaks cables, you would see much more about how US was trying to trolling down other's country's governments in the name of democracy and freedom, and install their puppets/trojans that help them to squeeze money. All the nonsense you mentioned came from their lying machinese for the malices. Yes, we do have problems, but even our leadership are not much better than Sadam, it is ten times worse if we let US redivide our territory or turn our country into something like Iraq or Afghanistan.

    That is why we won't listen to their suggestions to cut our military budget while they send navy around our coasts, selling weapons to some region inside our countries etc. It is quite painful to spend these money the way, but it would be more painful if we don't.
     

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