Will China Inherit Afghanistan’s War?

Discussion in 'China' started by LETHALFORCE, Sep 27, 2011.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Will China Inherit Afghanistan’s War? | 2point6billion.com - Foreign Direct Investment in Asia

    Sept. 26 – As the United States continues its preparations to exit Afghanistan, comments made by ex-U.S. forces suggest that an alternative power may have to step into their shoes. Stating recent attacks made by the mafia-styled Haqqani family, Marc Sageman, an ex-CIA officer who served in Pakistan has been quoted in the press as saying “Whoever is in power in Afghanistan will have to make a deal with the Haqqani’s. It won’t be us, we’re leaving and they know it.”

    That China and Pakistan enjoy strong diplomatic and economic relations is well known, as are the certainties of a U.S. pullout. But Pakistan, facing a choice between being overrun by Taliban, giving up Afghanistan to India, or pulling in the Chinese, may only have the one viable option – major Chinese involvement, whether China likes it or not. It may also suit a war-weary United States to sit back and watch developments, including whether China can step up to the plate as a global citizen and maintainer of peace.

    That China may well have to do so appears increasingly likely. Recent bombings in Kashgar and Khotan in China’s Xinjiang Autonomous Region seem to have been orchestrated by Islamic militants that received training in Pakistan and Afghanistan, a development that has sprung seven visits by Pakistan’s military chiefs to Xinjiang this year alone as they try and assure Beijing that they have the situation under control. With militants long coveting Xinjiang as part of a pan-Islamic state, China may find itself dragged into a conflict it does not want in order to protect its homeland, just like the United States has tried.

    Pakistani Asif Al Zadari was in Urumqi just last month to attend the Xinjiang Expo, where a heavy Chinese SWAT style team was said to have uncovered several terrorist plots, including apprehending a passenger armed with a knife attempting to board a domestic flight from Urumqi. Following the Uyghur-Chinese disturbances in Urumqi in 2009, Zardari endorsed China’s policies in Xinjiang. On that occasion, , Muslim Uighurs had rioted against Han Chinese residents in Urumqi, killing at least 197 people, most of them Han, although Islamic institutions suggest that Muslim fatalities were far higher than stated by official media. Just that statement alone will have inflamed passions among Muslim fanatics, who want to see the Han Chinese leave Xinjiang.

    The options for China are limited. With no U.S. presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan may not have the resources or political will to deal with Islamic insurgents also intent on securing access to Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Intent was shown two years ago when the Taliban invaded the Swat Valley and progressed to less than 200 kilometers away from Islamabad, the Pakistani capital. That Beijing was concerned about that development is understating it. Islamabad has regular direct flights to Urumqi and Beijing, and any increase in militancy towards China’s presence in Xinjiang could turn very nasty, very quickly.

    As U.S.-Pakistan relations continue to deteriorate, the increased involvement of India, which enjoys booming U.S. relations, within Afghan politics will also alarm both Pakistan and China. India already has a significant military presence in Kashmir, which at one side is right up against Pakistan’s border, and to the east, with China. India has long claimed territories held by both as its own, and gaining military influence in Afghanistan suits its objectives to place both Pakistan and China under pressure on these borders.

    Pakistan is almost certain to rely on China for weapons and military support to deal with both its internal instability and the threat of a resurgent Indian presence on their doorstep.

    Such a scenario will also involve Iran, as the regime has funded much of the Afghan insurgencies against the United States. China enjoys good relations with Tehran, Pakistan less so as it is aware that the Iranians would dearly like to be more involved with controlling large parts of its territory.

    Squeezed out of the equation Pakistan may well be, and it seems likely that Sino-Iranian deals will start to become much more in favor of Tehran’s bilateral trade with China as a result, as Iran twists the key to obtain concessions from China in return for ceasing to arm militants. Only time will tell if an Iran-Pak-China military triumvirate will succeed where the United States has left an inheritance. Afghanistan could become more stable if Iran ceases its involvement, but this could be ruptured if intent towards Pakistani territory becomes apparent. This is, after all, a country that fought a seven year war with Iraq.

    But should violence in Xinjiang start to increase, such support may well lead to a short cut into direct Chinese military involvement in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Chinese won’t like it. But with the United States watching from the wings, it may now only be a short time before China has to step up, get into Afghanistan, and see what it really means to limit Islamic insurgents on its own borders.
     
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  3. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    China doesn't take responsibility for anything, you think they would administer lawless Afghanistan? Not likely...
     
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  4. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Why shall China get into the same pitfall as 2 greater powers did?

    Let Pak do it for China as Afg is her traditional backyard. (*_*)
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2011
  5. cir

    cir Senior Member Senior Member

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    China will go there only to avail herself of the resources that the Afghans need to sell for cash so that reconstruction of the country might proceed as planned.
     
  6. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Spoken like a true Chini. Resources, resources, resources!!
     
  7. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Seriously why would china directly step in if Pakistan is ready to do all that the chinese wish for? The slogan, “sino-pak is an all-weather friendship” has to be put to some use somewhere, and then china is not giving all those soft loans or doing infra related projects because they have some special liking for the Pakistanis, there is always a pay-back time. Pakistan will have to do the entire low end cleaning up job for china as they were so far doing for the US, rules of the game are as simple, no charities and freebies in this business.

    It is Pakistan which will secure the chinese interests in a’stan, cut deals for them with who-so-ever, and chinese will be paying for all that and the instability will continue in Pakistan because they want to play the “big game”.

    It is quite ironic, chinese too tell the Pakistanis to “do more” but they do it behind the closed doors and the news never gets leaked, but when the US does it there is a lot of ho-halla about it, and a lot of chest thumping, hahaha …………. enjoy it!
     
  8. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    TR, as china gets powerful, it suppresses the Uighers even more, the Taliba, AQ, fresh from a victory against the mighty US will turn their attention to both India and China.

    India has a cause for concern. Its so bloody important for the US to actually take action against Pak.
     
  9. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Yusuf,

    i really do hope but i doubt much will happen, at most there will be very few strikes and that too in very limited areas fearing the collateral damage and the backlash.

    i said this yesterday as well, i seriously think the US doesnt at all want to lose pakistan in the long run, there are way-too many interests involved in this area to let go of, and if they do let go of pakistan then which country will do the same for the US in this region, in the current geo-politics none really. pakistan will be of use to them even if they dont quite get the desired results and i really dont see the americans get all too emotional about it, they are smart enough to understand their long term interests.

    the result of use for the US will be 4 different countries in place of one pakistan but then they will have to deal with 4 different countries which wont be an easy job and possibly a few of these new entities could be very hostile to the US.

    as i said, its really US's call but not an easy one.

    mate,

    that day will come, no doubt in that. if the taliban can split and form the ttp and bite the very hands which fed them then there is nothing not to believe that they will do the same with the chinese and with us.

    from what i see, i think the chinese believe they can control the situation in a'stan and a spill over through pakistan, but i am sure time will prove them wrong on that, before the taliban turns to china, i seriously think they will turn to either CAR and/or iran and/or india.
     
  10. cir

    cir Senior Member Senior Member

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    America should continue to play the role of world's police as it has done since God knows when.

    China should go where its commercial interests are, and only when the major fighting is done and the country in question is starting to rebuild, for there is no other country which has the money, the resources, both human and material, and the the will to carry out the required work. China is in a very strong position in so far as the reconstruction of any nation that has been bombed by the US and its allies is concerned.

    It is some time since the US last started a major war. It is about time to have one. How about starting with Iran? China is gonna benfit the way she did regards a post-war Iraq.

    Good boy America. :)
     
  11. cir

    cir Senior Member Senior Member

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    An army of reconstruction workers from China has arrived in or is on its way to Libya.

    If only there are more places like Libya where China can put its resources and expertise to good use!!!

    America should definitely start a new war. Perhaps Syria? Or Yemen? Or Iran if Uncle Sam dares?
     
  12. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Why so you can pick up the scraps like a opportunistic vulture?
     
  13. redragon

    redragon Regular Member

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    See that is the difference between USA and China, they are fighters, we are builder, they destroys things we rebuild, savy? Who do you think average people like? destroyer or builder?
     
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  14. redragon

    redragon Regular Member

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    If a world has only one type of player, the world would be very boring and will lose balance very soon, fighters need builders, same the other way around, fighters break the world then builders have a chance to rebuild and make money, builders lend the money to fighters for better weapon, so they can start a new round of war, and on and on, indian members seems unwilling to accept that USA and China are actually on a same bed, I have to say you guys are naive or lack of big vision to understand how this world really works.
    USA and China are two ends of a same evil exis
     
  15. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    An interesting scenario where China enters the Afghanistan fracas.

    Pakistan will have to tone down, if not totally stop supporting the Taliban.

    China will be on pig's back. Resources, Peace on earth, love and compassion and all that is perfect!

    However, how about looking at it this way - China steps in and the US finances the Taliban!

    So, the Third power of the world also gets a licking from the Islamic hordes of Afghanistan!!

    A Trap being laid for China?
     

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