Why it is not in interest of china to block india's entry in NSG.

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by HariPrasad-1, Jun 15, 2016.

  1. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    India has entered MCTR as the newest member. Prime minister Modi is working very hard and lobbying across the world to get membership in NSG for India. Almost all members have unanimous consensus about the India's membership for NSG. However, china is considered to be the main hurdle and it is said that china will vote against India's entry in NSG and thereby preventing India from being being a member of NSG.

    Now this has to be analyzed in the context of what china is going to get by preventing India from being the member of NSG. What they will loose if they oppose India or it is simply a negotiation tactic. Now let us analyze the issue one by one.

    What china is going to get by preventing India's membership in NSG:

    China considers India as a major power in Asia and its potential competitor Having huge manpower pool and potential to be the factory of the world. Rise of one is certainly going to affect the rise of other negatively like Zero sum game. So obviously it is natural that china would not like to see India rising. They would like India to be contained to a level where India can not emerge as an another power center challenging the supremacy of china in Asia and the world. China knows that and for that they had a long term strategy. Helping Pakistan in Technology like Missile and Atom bomb was a long term plan of china to contain india. Everything was going as per his plan until Modi cam to power. Modi with his highly fast and aggressive foreign policy reverse many thing. Modi demolished china's string of pearl and isolated Pakistan among whole world with only friend china. Modi's act east policy created further concern for china. Improving the relations with Japan, Philippines , vietnam , Australia and better relationship with US totally annoyed china and put it on back foot. The china which once seem to emerging as the major investor and a partner in Economic mater became a non friendly country. Now china wants to contain india but they do not know how to do that. They can not find any way to deal with highly effective and offensive diplomacy of Modi. India's aspiration to be the member of NSG has came as an opportunity for the china where they can harm India somewhat or better to say that they think that they are able to contain the rise of India to some extent. . China by opposing the india's entry may stop india to be a member NSG.

    Now the question here is that what harm can china do to India by preventing India from NSG and what they can gain? Looking to the India's capability and competence in Nuclear research, India can not not be contained i developing its Nuclear program in civilian Nuclear program or weapon program by denying NSG entry. India has major cooperation with all nuclear power like US , Russia, France. India has agreements with country like Canada and Australia India's cooperation in nuclear technology has not conditioned on its NSG membership. India has civil Nuclear agreement with US. Russian nuclear power plants are already in construction in India. India has hired Nuclear submarine from Russia. Many countries like Australia , Japan and Canada has various agreements with India without India being a member of NSG. So Indian nuclear co operation is not at all conditioned on the India's membership in NSG. No Indian Nuclear ambition can be curtailed by china by denying India the membership in NSG. So china can hardly harm India in achieving her strategic or civil nuclear ambitions. So china is not going to get anything by preventing India from being a member of NSG.

    What china is going to loose by opposing the india's entry in NSG:

    China's policy to contain india was going well untill modi came to power. However, The aggressive economic and foreign policy of Modi rattled china completely. Initially they tried to pretend that they are friends but latter on it was seen that china is not able to leave its old policy of containing India considering India a rival. Initially Xi came to India and promised big investment. They promised a cooperation in many area. It was felt initially that we India and china is stepping new era of economic friendship and that will be later on extended in another area to resolve border issues and even defense cooperation. However, china could not break strait jacket and adopt a new India policy. Looking at the current condition of china where it is loosing its status of manufacturing hub and economic status, It was best policy for china to be the economic partner and benefit from India's development. China has a huge chunk of money and foreign currency is Trillions of Dollars. When the business in china has not remained very attractive, they should try to find a destination where they can multiply their money and there is no better destination than India. They can invest in india may get some favorable terms an get benefited. However, it seems that china is doing otherwise. If china do not put its policies right, it is very much possible that it may end up like Japan where they have a lots of money but their GDP is shrinking at a rapid pace. They are unable to leveraged their huge chunk of money for any economic benefit or growth. So it is not wise for china to kill a possibility of being more prosperous for some short sighted reasons. Policy of china to contain India seems very reactive in nature lacking any foresightedness. This will hist china very badly if they obstruct india. That will give india free hand to help vietnam and other country to boost nuclear cooperation which will further weaken the china's condition and status in the region. The another grey area is that india is a big nuclear power eligible for a natural entry in NSG. All other countries are supporting. Going against their will will spoil the relationship with other country and attract their wrath.

    Negation tactics:

    The third possibility I see is that china may be wanting to negotiate with India in some area of its concern, China wanted an entry in SARCC. India was naturally opposed it. Here china can negotiate the entry in SARCC in exchange of support in NSG. The other possible concern of China may nuclear cooperation of India with the countries like Vietnam and Philippines. China negotiate with India for that and settle the issue on mutually agreeable term. The third possibility china may be wanting to negotiate is the entry of Pakistan in NSG. Looking to irresponsible behavior and impression of Pakistan in whole world, china may not success .

    Conclusion: The act of opposing India's entry in NSG by china looks reactive in nature without properly calibrating pros and cons. Any opposition f India's entry in NSG will prove counter productive to china's strategic and economic interest. However , if that is a negotiating tactic, china may negotiate with India and may arrive on any mutually agreeable term.
     
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  3. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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  4. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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  5. curryman

    curryman Regular Member

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    Don't understand all the diplomatic capital being expended by India to gain entry into a group that it has done fine without for years. Why now? Better strategy to deny Pakistan's entry, as it means more to them than India.
     
  6. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Basically, the major idea of this article is:
    1. India is destined to win for whatever reason;
    2. Since India will win eventually, China should kiss India's ass now;
    3. If China doesn't kiss India's ass, China will lose eventually for the reason we don't know;
    4. Since China will lose eventually, India should celebrate her victory now.

    Good work.
     
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  7. Yumdoot

    Yumdoot Regular Member

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    Outside NPT means India can supply whatever it feels like to whomsoever it feels like. And the punishment would be to ban India from NSG. Well, that changes nothing.

    NSG is a Suppliers Cartel and not a Buyers Cartel. These Suppliers supply to whomsoever they feel like - which basically means (1) nuke weapons capable countries (even if without actual WMDs), that are (2) inside their respective sphere of influence and (3) are signatories to NPT,

    So India is for practical strategic purposes already a falsification/negation of the cartel.

    From a true India perspective the very need to get into NSG is not established yet.

    Frankly I kind of like it that the Chinese are not going to let us in. This may be the right quid pro quo for the gifting away of UNSC seat by Nehru. Gives us time to kick the whole system down for good.

    In fact with Pakis inside it would become difficult for them to supply whatever little technology they have to North Korea or elsewhere. This could actually be better for us in future.

    We are much much ahead of Pakis but ultimately even we do not have enough to supply that is worth cartelzing. If we were making, which we are not, the 1000 MW reactors, which is the standard today. Then perhaps it would have made sense to do a 'tech denial' of it to somebody who would want it badly from us, which is unlikely. The reality is we were making 100 MW reactors when the world was making 220 MW reactors then we went to 220 MW as the world moved to 500 MW and today we will move to 500 MW when the world has already moved to 1000 MW.

    NSG is a poor reason to buy AP1000. And thats it. They all just want to package it like it is all a must have for India. Meantime UP ke bhaiyas are more interested in the question - Mayawati or Mulayam? Which actually is more relevant a question for the future of India.
     
  8. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    As far as I know, China is busy in kissing @$$ of pakistan now a days. :love::kissass:
    On Topic:
    For getting the reasons, bother to read the article again. :biggrin2:
    India is way bigger trade partner of China as compared to Pakistan. Plus I don't guess CCP likes our mapping in SCS.
    Well, for Pakistan, I agree that they are strategically important, but watch out that they may not radicalize your Muslims.
     
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  9. OneGrimPilgrim

    OneGrimPilgrim Senior Member Senior Member

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    whr invaders hv been eulogised, heroes binned!!
    itne badhiya-badhiya smileys tum log laate kahaan se ho?!
     
    Last edited: Jun 16, 2016
  10. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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  11. OneGrimPilgrim

    OneGrimPilgrim Senior Member Senior Member

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    whr invaders hv been eulogised, heroes binned!!
    aaaannnhhh! damn! that's a treasure! and i once spent some time wondering & searching ki log ye sab smileys kahaan se khod-khodkar yahaan chaspa kar rahe hain aur wo bhi kaise!
     
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  12. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Strange India's largest trading partner is China and India can't do anything


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  13. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    We don't mind kissing anyone's ass as long as he or she serves our interest.

    Yes, trade partner. The only reason you buy from China is that is the best deal you can get.

    Then, you are wrong. Nobody gives a damn about your flag waving in SCS.

    Well, Chinese blames you and Americans for those muslim thugs.
     
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  14. shiphone

    shiphone Senior Member Senior Member

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    LOL... oh....."top trading partner"
    -------------
    1.for china , India is just the 10th trading partner accounts for around 1.8% of total trading volume ,and India has been stayed on this rank for years although the Bilateral trade volume keeps rising....

    QQ截图20160617105507.png


    2. on the other hand ,for 124 nations on this earth, China is their largest trading partner and 2nd largest for quite some nations among the rest of the world...so what? ...LOL

    image.jpg
     
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  15. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    In that case, we too have right to ask anyone for our interest.
    And you sell, because we pay, not cry for subsidy or concession.
    Such huge loans to paki, can they even pay? :D
    Oho, mark my words.
    China objects to presence of Indian ships in South China Sea
    Source?
    BTW, I don't no about US but no country blames India for promoting Islamic militants (except Pakistan).
    Ummah is religious enemy of India probably since birth of Islam.
    Ghazwa e Hind - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    A good read too. :biggrin2:
    Islam Final War with India in 2016
    Intelligent breed.
    I didn't said top trading partner but at least way bigger than the party who is seeking to block India's bid to NSG over their ME TOO Syndrome.
     
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  16. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    I wrote it. DO yo liked it? @Indx TechStyle
    This means only 6 and half month is left with Islamist to conquer india. If they failed to do that than they are gone as per their holy book.
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2016
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  17. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle Perfaarmance Naarmal Senior Member

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    Haan,
    This article was written back in 2016.
    And this isn't first time that ghazwa was delayed. :p
    7 totally random and funny maps of India some Pakistanis love to dream
    about

    Disclaimer: Maps given in the site are completely fictional and don't belong our view anyhow.
    Me, any other DFI member or Administration has nothing to do with it. nor we support it as if map bill from Government of India.
     
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  18. Yumdoot

    Yumdoot Regular Member

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    Count trade surpluses and then talk. Nearly all of these 124 countries are the ones you import from. The only countries you have +ve trade balances are the EU, Hong Kong, US, India. If you think you can supplant 50 billion USD year on year (that too with the kind of economy you are running now) with something else in your balance sheet, then be my guest. I hate all this unnecessary importing myself.

    Problem for you is that while India is militarily weaker compared to China right now, the trade is in China's favour and in future both these metrics are going to change 180 degrees.

    Even if you want to speak only about economics, the dollar flow from India to China is bigger than the whole GDP of Pakistan.

    But more realistically, you can do jack shit if we mess up anything in these parts of the world. All the assets you are putting up in Pakistan and Tibet are just Targets for us.
     
  19. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Muzzies are such a community who wants to live in high state of orgasm. They feel irritating if the excitement of dosage of Gazwa is not there. Porki muzzies are very special creation of allah. They can write an article in 31st December 2016 that there will be a Gazwa e hind in 2016 itself. Gazwa is such a beloved dream of porki muzzies that they can not dream of happening that any time beyond 6 month.
     
  20. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    I remember a 2008 video of Porki Muzzie master Sir Zahid (Zahil) Hamid (Galich) .
    He told audience that they would reach moon withing next 5 years. Pakistan would emerge as a most important nation in the world. All important decisions shall be taken after the consultation of porkistan. The crowd got emotional and clapped. There were tears in the eyes of some porki muzzies. Few were looking at him with suspension.
     
  21. shiphone

    shiphone Senior Member Senior Member

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    LOL...I was always surprise at reading these stupid brave words on DFI...what's wrong with the Indian Education ? ...why so many members here are enjoying building up things in brain and making such funny baseless statement with funny prolusion like "I think".."I guess"...blah.blah..blah...

    I know Indian love so called 'Meditation'...LOL...but not too much please...
    ----------------

    back to the topic, such stupid statement could be easily overthrown....LOL..

    1. Russia (with China) in 2015

    Export: 28.61 billion USD
    Import: 34.9 Billion USD
    China's surpluse: 6.34 billion

    2. Japan (with China) in 2015

    Export: 109.29 billion USD
    Import: 160.57 billion USD
    China's surpluse: 51.28 billion

    3. Canada (with china) in 2015

    Export: 15.8 billion USD
    Import:51.26 billion usd
    China's surpluse: 35.45 billion

    4. South Africa (with China) in 2015

    Export: 7.45 bn USD
    Import: 15.66 bn USD
    China's surpluse: 8.21 billion

    5. Argentina (with China) in 2015

    Export: 5.17 bn USD
    Import: 9.18 bn USD
    China's surpluse: 4.01 billion

    5. Mexico (with China) in 2015

    Export: 4.88 bn USD
    Import: 69.99 bn USD

    China's surpluse: 65.11 billion
    ----------------
    BTW...China Hong Kong

    Export: 287.4 bn USD
    Import: 257.8 bn USD

    China's Deficit(NOT surpluse....LOL): 29.6 billion

    and again...EU has 27 nations but the idiot claimed 'Nearly all of these 124 countries are the ones you import from'...LOL..

    Export: 187.08 bn USD
    Import: 387.66 bn USD

    China's surpluse 200.58 billion

    btw, another "Union" --ASEAN with 10 nations
    China's surpluse 83.2 billion

    ---------------------
    LOL..some hopeless and shameless indian would like such fancy statement not qutestion it ...again, I can't help asking "what's wrong with Indian Education"?

    source: http://countryreport.mofcom.gov.cn/record/index110209.asp
    (Info collected from all nation's own relevant departments)
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2016
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