Why China does NOT fear India's missiles

Discussion in 'Strategic Forces' started by Drsomnath999, Jul 15, 2014.

  1. Drsomnath999

    Drsomnath999 lord of 32 teeth Elite Member

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    [​IMG]

    China has well and truly cemented its position in the 'star wars' era. Gordon Arthur explains why.

    Sometime in the next few months, India will conduct the first canister-based trial of its blue-ribbon intercontinental ballistic missile, the Agni-V, at Wheeler Island.

    Able to reach targets anywhere in China thanks to its 5,500 km range, this missile is hugely important to India's nuclear deterrence strategy.

    "Agni-V is in final induction configuration... The missile will be ready for induction in the armed forces over the next couple of years after three to four more successful test firings from canisters," declared Avinash Chander, chief of the Defence Research and Development Organisation.

    Canister-launched missiles are preferable because their survivability against enemy attack increases; road-based launchers can quickly change location. Furthermore, the addition of canister-launch ability gives the Agni-V a true quick-reaction capacity.

    The Agni-V is a three-stage solid-propellant missile that has already achieved two successful test-firings. It builds upon existing family members, the Agni-I (with 700 km range), Agni-II (2,500 km), Agni-III (3,000 km) and Agni-IV (3,500 km).

    The chief purpose of the Agni-V is obviously to target China. However, Beijing has been greatly improving its ability at targeting incoming ballistic missiles.

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    In a report entitled Space Invaders -- China's Space Warfare Capabilities', published recently by Jane's Intelligence Review, its authors explore the enormous investment Beijing is funnelling into space warfare.

    China has long been developing an anti-ballistic missile system that will have dramatic implications for the deterrence threat posed by India's missile force. If China can effectively negate the threat posed by Agni missiles, it has less to fear from India.

    Indeed, the report concluded: "A limited ABM force is capable of protecting the industrial and population centres in eastern China from attack by longer-range Indian systems that are currently under development... One regional impact may be that it [China] feels emboldened to greater assist its own allies or Indian adversaries, such as Pakistan, in times of regional tension."

    ABM systems have the potential to critically alter strategic balances because they nullify an adversary's attack capability.

    Currently only the USA and Russia have operational ABM networks, although China is fast closing in on one, and India is pursuing such a system.

    China's efforts to create an ABM capability began as early as 1964 due to fears about American and Soviet missiles.

    If China has the ability to destroy incoming Indian missiles, Delhi will be forced to produce greater numbers, more destructive warheads or more sophisticated countermeasures to achieve the same effect.

    Thus, India will almost assuredly develop multiple independent re-entry vehicles (MIRV) for the Agni-V, which will give each missile 2-10 separate nuclear warheads.

    The same is true of Russian and US ICBMs, where a limited strike with a small number of missiles will no longer be guaranteed success. Instead, a larger barrage will be required.

    Another aspect of the People's Liberation Army programme, and complementary to its ABM project, is the ability to target 'enemy' assets in space.

    Key among them are anti-satellite weapons such as the SC-19 missile produced by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation. It carries a 35 kg kinetic kill vehicle that can be used for both ASAT and ABM purposes.

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    China controversially tested an SC-19 in 2007 when it destroyed a defunct weather satellite and created 150,000 pieces of space debris.

    The SC-19 has since been used in two other confirmed tests, one in January 2010 and another in January 2013.

    However, the SC-19 is not the only trick in China's bag.

    The HQ-9 air-defence missile, copied from Russian technology, has been developed into an HQ-9B anti-tactical ballistic missile variant.

    The US Department of Defence also claims China has developed the HQ-19, an equivalent of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence system, of which the US Army currently has a battery deployed on Guam.

    The Jane's report gave a bold warning: "Chinese ABM development is on par with US efforts technologically, only lagging behind in deployment."

    However, Chinese investment will rapidly turn this situation around, with the authors stating "China could meet or exceed US ABM deployment levels within the next decade".

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    Image: Airbus Defence and Space imagery shows an unusual large phased array radar (LPAR) deployed at the Huian Electronic Warfare (EW) complex in Fujian Province, China. The LPAR differs from other Chinese LPARs in that its array face is oriented much closer to vertical

    Large phased-array radars are key to conducting space-based intercepts.

    They can be used offensively or defensively, supporting either anti-satellite attacks or a ballistic-missile early-warning function.

    China has four known LPAR sites at Huian, Korla, Longgangzhen and Shuangyashan that provide coverage of most of Russia, Central Asia, India and Taiwan/Southeast Asia.

    It is suspected the Huian site near the Taiwan Strait may be an electronic attack device able to target the strategically important AN/FPS-115 Pave Paws long-range early-warning radar atop a mountain in Taiwan.

    Indeed, the Jane's report estimated, "Despite the potential to negate US missile threats, few capabilities offer a substantial threat to US forces, and the largest impact will be felt regionally through the potential interference with Taiwanese ballistic-missile early-warning systems, or the increasing Chinese assertion over shipping lanes."

    Not content with current progress, China is constantly fishing for new technologies.

    For example, in June the US security technology group Crowd strike accused the clandestine hacker group Unit 61398, with close links to the PLA, of systematically attacking computer systems belonging to space/satellite partners of US and European governments to glean top-secret information.

    Just a few weeks earlier, the US Department of Justice indicted five PLA members of Unit 61398 for cybercrimes.

    China is also pursuing high-energy laser weapons that can dazzle, blind or destroy enemy systems such as imaging satellites.

    This is an acute threat for a country like the USA that is so dependent on space-based sensors.

    It was reported in September 2006 that China fired a laser at a US spy satellite. The DoD regularly reports that China continues to pursue laser weapons for ASAT and ABM roles.

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    Image: Shenlong space plane

    That is not all. China may be developing co-orbital weapons, or 'assassin satellites', that quietly orbit in space awaiting an order to assault hostile satellites.

    In September 2013, China tested a dual-use co-orbital 'assassin' or repair satellite with a robotic arm. It made contact with a target satellite, thus demonstrating a Chinese ability to manoeuvre and damage other satellites.

    Russian sources revealed China tested a Shenlong small space plane in late 2011 or early 2012.

    Similar in size to the USA's X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle, the Shenlong "could be developed into a slightly larger space plane that could carry passive or active military payloads," the Jane's report predicted.

    China is clearly developing major capabilities so it can both strike first and strike back against any nation with satellites or missiles aimed at it. China has well and truly cemented its position in the 'star wars' era.

    Why China does NOT fear India's missiles - Rediff.com News
     
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  3. Drsomnath999

    Drsomnath999 lord of 32 teeth Elite Member

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    One more thing i like to stress the author didnt mention one thing

    China may be the 1st customer for RUSSIAN S 400 Sam which are very advanced SAM with ABM capabilty
    it would be give great boost to CHinese ani ballistic missile capabilty

    IMO India should oppose this deal as they would CTRL C + CTRL V that missile develop their own so called indigenoius systems & would export those so called indigenoius systems to nation which we dont want
    Guess who!!:lol:


    CHEERS
     
  4. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    MIRV are difficult to intercept.

    Also is it better to have 1 delivery vehicle with 1 MT+ yield compared to 1 missile with 3 warhead of 45 KT yield (shakti 1 thermonuclear) for a total yield of 1.35 MT. When India tests its MIRV capability it will signal to the world that India is having Megaton Thermonuclear capability by way of a proper, modern, appropriate delivery vehicle and with the suited infrastructure and developments, . I can dare say that India knows what it is doing and has planned accordingly long time ago. Why anyone in region and world needs to fear India ... India needs to focus on the word "venerate".

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  5. Drsomnath999

    Drsomnath999 lord of 32 teeth Elite Member

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    i was reading the comments section in that news source i found this guy's post damn funny , i literally fell of my chair of lolling


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    CHEERS
     
  6. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    Where would the economic muscle come for China to develop all these systems.....China is supposed to be rich and become a market for the west to exploit, China is not supposed to be a super power.

    Western MNC's supported this for 20 years and their job is done. Countries in Asia has to be careful to protect themselves from this Dragon before it ultimately looses its teeth and goes down.
     
  7. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Truly speaking Chinese would be fools not to fear indian highly mobile, nuclear capable with possible MIRV missiles.

    They politically are dependent on Pakistan to counter Indian threat. That would be stupid. Even if Pakistanis are suicidal, yet they are not fools. They do not wish to die protecting Chinese interests. Pakistanis could be forced to take their fingers off the nuclear trigger with one single nuclear submarine on patrol near Karachi.

    Chinese have been over-confidant. After the American nuclear threat disappeared with Nixon-Mao meet in 1971, they rejoiced. They built themselves on merchandise trade prosperity from 1989 till today. This is not going to last for ever. India is right behind them. With huge quality and short life of Chinese merchandise, the West is getting tired of replacing everything made in China they bought only a couple of years back. The household in the West are shifting their emphasis from too cheap to a bit more durable items. That will either raise the price of Chinese merchandise or the West will start making it at home. That is bad news to Chinese over confidence.

    Back to Indian nukes, fitted to very modern Indian missiles, Chinese would be hard pressed to counter them. If no counter could be found they would very soon start respecting Indian nukes.
     
  8. power_monger

    power_monger Regular Member

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    Only America is said to have advanced Anti ballistic missile defence,yet the sucess rate of its interceptors in a controlled environment is just about 40%.i doubt chinese or russians systems are any where near the maturity levels of US's ABM.

    with these immature systems,i do not think china can afford to be relaxed against incomming nuclear tipped Agni 5 or nuclear tipped Brahmos fired from one of its submarines?

    and in few years we should be able to get advanved mirv capabilities which is very hard to intercept.so i dont think china can take india lightly.
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2014
  9. anupamsurey

    anupamsurey Regular Member

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    Chinese may be vary of (or as the report says fear) Indian missiles, but once you admit it, the fear becomes more dangerous than the actual enemy, anyway it will be foolish to admit it publicly or ignore the threats of missiles in hands of any nation or institution.
     
  10. abhi_the _gr8_maratha

    abhi_the _gr8_maratha Senior Member Senior Member

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    Even chinese experts said that chinese SAMs are technology of 80s and 90s and someone saying to use them for incoming treats.... Lol.
     
  11. Bheeshma

    Bheeshma Regular Member

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    The Farticle is another joke. China had no BMD capability. It can't even stop Agni-II forget the higher ranged ones.
     
  12. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    With China's last 90s missile technology and last 70s nuclear warhead level, why should China fear it?
    There is still a lot for India to catch up: first, get a thermonuclear test 100% right.

    Well, until today, the majority of India forces are still focusing on Pakistan. That prove one thing: that strategy is working and working good.

    In the peak of cold war, there were more than dozens of USSR nuclear submarine patrolling the sea outside Chinese land, China was never forced to take their fingers off the nuclear trigger. What make you think that a single Indian submarine can do the job?

    Well, I hear the same kind of comments from Indians again and again in the past 10 years, but it didn't stop the gap between China and India becoming bigger and bigger.

    Kid, if China has the confidence and method to counter the most advanced and powerful nuclear forces on the earth: first USSR and then USA, there is nothing China would fear about the India nuclear force.
     
  13. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

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    The posts from "no smoking" is interesting. I agree Mao was never afraid of US nuclear might later of Soviet might. But that was outward appearance to maintain public morale internally. They were afraid like hell and went on a building caves and tunnels in Central China. Finding Soviets more vicious Mao decided to make it up with US within three years when Soviets decided to breath down heavily on China's neck. But that is history.

    Nuclear submarines of sixties and seventies are no match to current submarines prowling the sea. Moreover, there is no need to rain nuclear bombs, just get one big city like Shanghai and then wait for offer of talks. Talks would begin an hour before first nuclear missile is fired to level the city. The point here is that excessive emphasis on self prestige has no place in this world. If Chinese think they are superior race, so do the Indians.

    I am very sure that over-confidant Chinese maintain an outward posture of superiority. Otherwise why would they go round stealing technical and military information of the whole world. There is not one piece of missiles, bombs, planes and ships in China's inventory which began its inventions not in China but elsewhere but taken to China legally or illegally.

    Stolen technology never make anything good because processes & metallurgy and skills of the people cannot be stolen.
     
  14. power_monger

    power_monger Regular Member

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    no smoking,
    You might just pose that china is strong and un-fearfull in public.Actual truth is America inspite of all its weapon still fear nuclear war inspite of all its ABM capabilities. and china is no different. Until the ABM capabilities reach a high maturity level of around 90-95% interceptability rate no country can ignore other countries possesing nuclear weapons.Just like how india cannot ignore pakistan inspite of all its weaponary advantage.
     
  15. Bheeshma

    Bheeshma Regular Member

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    China is scared shit-less and you don't need any more proof than them crying and complaining to EU and USA about A-5's range being 8K km. They are even more scared of India and Japan increasing defence co-operation. They were shitting bricks when USSR turned up the heat and went crying into USA's arms and now with US turning on the asian pivot they will run to Russia's arms for S-400 and Su-35. Simply put they know chinese technology is not even as reliable as 70's era soviet weapons and thats why Akula and Arihant have already started tilting the balance. The joke of nuke subs that china has are only for show and will not dare move 100 km from chinese coast.
     
  16. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    China fears no doubt about it !!! Even 60's level nuclear tech is enough for China... One does not need 200 KT nukes to bring down China... 50 KT will kill 30% of so and the rest 70 % will be living dead... it is worst than complete anihiliation in few seconds... will give you a slow death...

    India has 100% success in Thermonuclear test !! India need not prove anything to China...

    The strategy has worked very good we have split Pakistan into two and China saw it happening but did not had the guts to intervene... see how powerfull China is ... so fearfull of USSR...

    cold war was with USSR and USA and not with you... did they attacked you ??

    The single submarine now and two more under construction and two more planned so in total five submarines are enough to bring down China... India can has enough fissile meterial to pull down China...

    Just compare the number of nulkes China have with USA or Russia you will know the class difference with you and them...

    The so called inflated economic data from Chinese does not show the so called gap ....


    Your statement proves that China have fear in itself... do not lie ... India did not need to replicate USA or USSR just 10% of what they have is enough of China... India will ensure that China does not goes un challenged...

    Come out of World War 2 shame and humiliation it is all most 70 years or more over...
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2014
    aerokan likes this.
  17. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    the intellectual capital that was invested on "stabilizing" Pakistan is being matched and enlarged towards PRC.

    but it seems that Modi and Xi were in good mood together at Brics summit ...
     
  18. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    With 100 atomic bomb? Not a chance!
    You can hurt China very badly, but bring down the whole country? Not enough!
    Yes, we know because only P5 members have tested the nuclear explosion in simulated city, both atomic and thermonuclear warhead.
    So, now only P5 members have the knowledge of how to fight a nuclear war even though only USA and Russia have the number to do it.
    India? still gets a long way to go.

    Well, the world doesn't think so.

    Why does China need to intervene? Our goal is using Pakistan to distract India not defending Pakistan! As long as India's military resources still focus on Pakistan, we are good!
    Yes, we are so afraid of USSR, but where is it now?

    Yes, they did! And both of them made it publicly they were planning to use nuclear weapons in their own war/conflict against Chinese. The plans were made, the weapons were deployed into position. The whole thing was cancelled in last minute.

    No, you don't! You do have enough fissile material which is only good enough for civilian nuclear reactor! You need months if not years to purify before use them to produce warhead while China have enough stock which can be used for nuclear weapon production straight away.

    Yes, you are right! But we are talking about India here!

    2013,
    India GDP--$1.87T
    China GDP--$9.24T
    GDP (current US$) | Data | Table

    Maybe you can tell me what you call that $7.37T difference? India's potential?



    Your statement proves that China have fear in itself... do not lie ... India did not need to replicate USA or USSR just 10% of what they have is enough of China... India will ensure that China does not goes un challenged...

    Come out of World War 2 shame and humiliation it is all most 70 years or more over...[/QUOTE]
     
  19. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Strike on major Chinese cities will bring down China to its knees ... one does not need 100's it will be over kill... India's will ensure that all major cities and industrial areas of China takes a hit.. rest will crumble like pack of cards... partial nuking of China will be worse than complete annihilation in one go... Ones that will survive will be turned into living hell a slow and sure painful death...

    P5 is not longer a nuclear exclusive group any more the days are gone long ago... The same P5 wants India into NSG !!

    India does not care what world thinks ... World has failed to stop India from going Nuclear... World has also failed to stop India from getting 200 KT nukes... Now world will also fail to stop India from going in for 400 KT nukes...

    China does not have guts to intervene !! So China is such a hypocrite state that it does not want to defend its close friend Pakistan in need... rather wants to use it as proxy ... what a shame !!! no wonder Japanese treat you like filthy dirt in second world war...

    Kid go and have a good sleep !! do not show your stupidity here... Using your same logic China wanted to confront USA with only 250 nukes ?? Hilarious !!

    World is ready to sell Uranium to India, be it Australia, Canada, Russia and others, agreements are also signed... it has already freed India of using its own Uranium source for nukes... India has already come up with the second nuke / enrichment plant and are in full operation mode...

    India has stockpiled the fissile materials since late 60's for all most 40 years enough for 250 nukes...

    China is a third world country that provides cheap labor for Japan, Europe and USA, Compare the living standard of China with Turkey considered the sick child of Europe...

    Come back when China is in a position to show a Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Capgemini, Cattepiller, Earnest Young, KPMG ..........................

    China is a copy cat !!! good only in stealing others work and selling as their own... you stole from CISCO, IBM and nay others...

    Come back when China produces a single Nobel laureate...

    Kid do not jump with made up economic data !! those are as fake as China made goods ....


     
  20. CCP

    CCP Senior Member Senior Member

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    You heard that from your mother's friend's son's friend again?
     
  21. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    I heard from a PLA mole...
     

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