Why 2013 eerily looks like the world of 1913

[amoy]

Click for a full read of >> Eve of Disaster - By Charles Emmerson | Foreign Policy

Let's get the caveats out of the way upfront. History does not repeat itself -- at least not exactly. Analogies from one period to another are never perfect. However tempting it may be to view China in 2013 as an exact parallel to Germany in 1913 (the disruptive rising power of its age) or to view the contemporary United States as going through the exact same experience as Britain a century ago (a "weary titan staggering under the too vast orb of its fate," as Joseph Chamberlain put it), things are never quite that straightforward. Whereas Germany in 1913 explicitly sought a foreign empire, China in 2013 publicly eschews the idea that it is an expansionist power (though it is perfectly clear about protecting its interests around the world). Whereas the German empire in 1913 had barely 40 years of history as a unified state behind it and was only slightly more populous that Britain or France, China in 2013 can look back on centuries of continuous history as a player in world affairs, and it now boasts one-fifth of the world's population. Whereas Germany's rise was a genuinely new geopolitical phenomenon in 1913, the rise of China today is more of a return to historical normality. These differences matter.

Similarly, the strengths and weaknesses of the United States in 2013 are not quite the same as those of Britain 100 years ago. Then, Britain benefited politically from being the world's banker and from being the linchpin of the gold standard. Today the United States, though benefiting politically and economically from being the issuer of the world's principal reserve currency, is hardly in the same position: The country is laden with debt. (One can argue about whether it should really be such a big issue that so much of that debt is owned by Chinese state entities -- after all, Beijing can't just dump Treasury bonds if it doesn't get what it wants from Washington. But Chinese ownership of U.S. debt feeds a perception of American decline, and perceptions of the relative powers of states matter a lot to how other countries treat them.) There are other differences between Britain in 1913 and the United States in 2013. Britain was never a military superpower on the order of the United States today. There was never a unipolar British moment. Britain in 1913 had slipped behind Germany industrially decades before, living more and more off the proceeds of the past; the United States in 2013 is still the world's largest economy and in many respects the most dynamic and most innovative.

 

[spikey360]

The world is on the brink of war. Not many people understand this simple truth. The conditions which prevail are not directly comparable to the conditions which existed in the past, because as is rightly said, history doesn't repeat itself exactly. However, all the elements required for a great war exists there already.

First and foremost, impending implosion of the Eurozone and resulting economic catastrophe of the globe. This will be aggravated by American economic decline and the fall of the American dollar. As can be seen already, there is extensive efforts on the part of many countries to set up mechanisms to trade using their own currencies. The time of the dollar is gone, all that remains is its name. That too will be gone once America falls into this debt trap. The dollar is not a gold backed currency, mind you. Both the world wars started in the backdrop of atrocious economic calamity in the world economy.

Next, comes the failure of the United Nations. Just like the League of Nations, the United Nations has failed. In the last decade, the UN wasn't able to make a single correct decision. Not a single resolution was passed which could stop animosity and bloodshed in different parts of the world. On the contrary, most of it's resolutions ratcheted up tensions, and increased bloodshed. Be it Iraq, Libya or Syria. The United Nations has become nothing more than a puppet. An organisation which has no powers of its own and must depend on its member states is no powerful organisation to begin with.

Next, comes the matter of Iran. Whether they are building a bomb or not has slowly become irrelevant. The world has clearly polarised itself on this matter. The US and its allies are adamant that the Iranians are building a nuke and the Israelis see this as an existential threat. On the other hand, Russia and China are firm on their ground that the Iranians should not be facing a military strike on this issue. They are absolutely opposed to the States on this matter and both have indirectly hinted that they are ready to support Iran militarily in the case of any eventuality. India, perhaps the only nation which can bring the world to the diplomatic table in this matter is mostly silent. The silence works tacitly in support of Iran, and in general, this is not too bad a stand considering Russia and China, the bigger powerhouses in Asia also support this.

 

[spikey360]

The rising tensions between Russia and the United States is an open secret. Both have a vast number of strategic assets to outdo each other. Though at the moment, the scales are tilted on the American side, it is the Chinese-Russian tandem in world affairs that is offering a powerful challenge to American strategic might. The setting up of the Missile Shield in Europe which is indirectly targetted towards Russia threatens to destroy the wafer thin strategic balance which has been existing for the last few decades since the end of the Cold war. If the Americans continue on this path, Russia is certain to start another arms race which in turn will spawn another arms race in the United States. The aggressive expansion of Nato beyond the atlantic and its tactics of trying to make all former Soviet states join it, is not a good sign at all. Again, it threatens to disturb the strategic balance of the region by cornering Russia and curtailing Russian sphere of influence.

Next, comes the matter of animosity of Islamic people against the United States. The bottomline is, Americans hate the Islamic people and in turn, the Islamic people hate America. History has shown that whenever there has been an enemity between Muslims and any other religion or state, fireworks have followed. America hasn't done anything to prevent that. Neither have the Islamic people. The Muslims started becoming radicals and attacked the United States, the States retaliated by waging wars against countries harbouring these radicals. This war or religions is also reaching a flashpoint which most try to write off as non-existent. However, it exists despite all denial.

The most potent and dangerous of all flashpoints however is the possibility of conflict between two small nations which in turn will polarise the whole world and bring a war upon us. India-Pakistan conflict, North Korea-South Korea/Japan conflict, China-Japan conflict, Iran-Israel conflict, Syria-Turkey conflict, Egypt-Israel conflict. All these have the potential to trigger a major conflagaration in the region which might ultimately lead to a world war.

Similar conditions existed in the world before the two great wars, it exists now as well. While there is an apparent shroud of peace upon the world, this is merely a veil. The daggers are out and ready from everyone's cloak. It is only a matter of time before the inevitable occurs.

 

[JBH22]

@Yusuf if common man can visualise the glooming picture I'm a bit surprised how we are cutting defence budget and neglecting our armed forces modernisation.

 

[Yusuf]

@Yusuf if common man can visualise the glooming picture I'm a bit surprised how we are cutting defence budget and neglecting our armed forces modernisation.

On the face of it, like I said in th relevant thread, the defence cut seemed like a diversion to what I call the National Bribery Scheme.

However, the 10,000 Cr cut on second thought looks to be a superficial cut which will not change anything on the ground in projects that are Multi billion in costs. We also have situation every year where money is returned back to fin min.
I don't think any big ticket purchase is going to be hurt by the less than $2 billion cut.

Why our modernization is slow, well according to me one reason is the ghost of Bofors and the other is complete lack of understanding of military requirements by babus who have no clue. And I will also add the vested interests between foreign and domestic suppliers.

 

[SATISH]

Isnt $2 bil returned back to fin min almost every year from the def. min.?

 

[agentperry]

answer to heading- because mind sees what we want to see

 

[spikey360]

answer to heading- because mind sees what we want to see

If that were true, kindly explain why none of the factors mentioned above can be reason enough to start a conflict.

 

[hello_10]

The world is on the brink of war. Not many people understand this simple truth. The conditions which prevail are not directly comparable to the conditions which existed in the past, because as is rightly said, history doesn't repeat itself exactly. However, all the elements required for a great war exists there already.

First and foremost, impending implosion of the Eurozone and resulting economic catastrophe of the globe. This will be aggravated by American economic decline and the fall of the American dollar. As can be seen already, there is extensive efforts on the part of many countries to set up mechanisms to trade using their own currencies. The time of the dollar is gone, all that remains is its name. That too will be gone once America falls into this debt trap. The dollar is not a gold backed currency, mind you. Both the world wars started in the backdrop of atrocious economic calamity in the world economy.

Next, comes the failure of the United Nations. Just like the League of Nations, the United Nations has failed. In the last decade, the UN wasn't able to make a single correct decision. Not a single resolution was passed which could stop animosity and bloodshed in different parts of the world. On the contrary, most of it's resolutions ratcheted up tensions, and increased bloodshed. Be it Iraq, Libya or Syria. The United Nations has become nothing more than a puppet. An organisation which has no powers of its own and must depend on its member states is no powerful organisation to begin with.

Next, comes the matter of Iran. Whether they are building a bomb or not has slowly become irrelevant. The world has clearly polarised itself on this matter. The US and its allies are adamant that the Iranians are building a nuke and the Israelis see this as an existential threat. On the other hand, Russia and China are firm on their ground that the Iranians should not be facing a military strike on this issue. They are absolutely opposed to the States on this matter and both have indirectly hinted that they are ready to support Iran militarily in the case of any eventuality. India, perhaps the only nation which can bring the world to the diplomatic table in this matter is mostly silent. The silence works tacitly in support of Iran, and in general, this is not too bad a stand considering Russia and China, the bigger powerhouses in Asia also support this.

US and its allies have two options, either delay their fall while borrowing more debt for few more years, or, go for a direct war with BRIC and get sudden end

Sir, its written on the wall that China has changed this world. US is having high status in world based on the 'bluffs' only right now, while China along with BRIC are the main reality of this world. and whether E7s accept this change or not, its on the table of war politics. but the way they are involved in organizing different wars every year, Afghanistan going on and at the same time targeting different nations one by one, Lybia, Syria and the list going on....... we always have a risk of wide scale war in world, its true :ranger:

=> sir yesterday I was talking that, "Japan is the 3rd most powerful military of Asia, after China and India, but China has to think none while making a direct offensive on it, even if Japan is owing the most sophisticated technologies of the world too......."

and then I said, as we know too, "war is fought on the 'ground', while even aircrafts, naval arms etc of China is no inferior, while Russia shared its all the best arms with India......"

and then I reminded, how we were waiting for a response from the EU when Russian tanks rolled over Georgia in 2008, and Mr G.Brown only led EU till the end, by lips service only. while BRICS are definitely much more powerful than 5 years before, and their strength too will be multiplied with passage of Time, its also clear... :thumb:

(a developing country would at least have 5% growth rate on the long run, while E7s may hardly maintain their current economic size, which is still not easy without keep borrowing debts. but for how long, its the main question )

I also compared US with SU/Russia which couldn't bear its expanses after 1990 and Russia had to destroy its half of the military arms, like how India is getting Gorskov which they decommissioned in early 90s as it wasn't easy to bear its expanses... while now Russia has almost 'no' debt, while US is heavily indebted and borrowing more and more to keep its military size. its accepted on the world platform that US has to reduce its military expanses but their debt borrowing habit has helped them maintain their current military size........

and hence, with the above bottom line facts, US and its allies are now left with two options only, either delay their fall while borrowing more debt for few more years, or, go for a direct war with BRIC and get sudden end

 

[hello_10]

The rising tensions between Russia and the United States is an open secret. Both have a vast number of strategic assets to outdo each other. Though at the moment, the scales are tilted on the American side, it is the Chinese-Russian tandem in world affairs that is offering a powerful challenge to American strategic might. The setting up of the Missile Shield in Europe which is indirectly targetted towards Russia threatens to destroy the wafer thin strategic balance which has been existing for the last few decades since the end of the Cold war. If the Americans continue on this path, Russia is certain to start another arms race which in turn will spawn another arms race in the United States. The aggressive expansion of Nato beyond the atlantic and its tactics of trying to make all former Soviet states join it, is not a good sign at all. Again, it threatens to disturb the strategic balance of the region by cornering Russia and curtailing Russian sphere of influence.

Next, comes the matter of animosity of Islamic people against the United States. The bottomline is, Americans hate the Islamic people and in turn, the Islamic people hate America. History has shown that whenever there has been an enemity between Muslims and any other religion or state, fireworks have followed. America hasn't done anything to prevent that. Neither have the Islamic people. The Muslims started becoming radicals and attacked the United States, the States retaliated by waging wars against countries harbouring these radicals. This war or religions is also reaching a flashpoint which most try to write off as non-existent. However, it exists despite all denial.

The most potent and dangerous of all flashpoints however is the possibility of conflict between two small nations which in turn will polarise the whole world and bring a war upon us. India-Pakistan conflict, North Korea-South Korea/Japan conflict, China-Japan conflict, Iran-Israel conflict, Syria-Turkey conflict, Egypt-Israel conflict. All these have the potential to trigger a major conflagaration in the region which might ultimately lead to a world war.

Similar conditions existed in the world before the two great wars, it exists now as well. While there is an apparent shroud of peace upon the world, this is merely a veil. The daggers are out and ready from everyone's cloak. It is only a matter of time before the inevitable occurs.

sir if we talk frankly then we do know that Western society is based on 'power exercise', get work done in either way, mainly on the Gun Point. while Muslims, mainly the Arabs themselves, are the main challenger to them, to fix their 2,000 years old religious conflicts..... both of these two sides know that they have to eat each other, (only kill each other in other words), but how much talks may still occur on parallel, is the main question

 

[GromHellscream]

Sole-God religions can't bear each other, and the most modern country named US is stilled heavily colored by religion.

Done.

 

[asianobserve]

sir if we talk frankly then we do know that Western society is based on 'power exercise', get work done in either way, mainly on the Gun Point.

Sir if only your hate against Amreeka doesn't obstruct an objective look at society, you'll easily see that to dominate is a basic human instinct. This is a throwback from our animalistic past (of course we are still animals now). SO all nations, countries, groupings of people will always try to dominate or exercise power over other nations, countries, groups of people. Nowadays the preferred theater of power jockeying is economic dominance, of course there are still the more overt political dominance being waged around the globe.

 

[spikey360]

US and its allies have two options, either delay their fall while borrowing more debt for few more years, or, go for a direct war with BRIC and get sudden end

Sir, its written on the wall that China has changed this world. US is having high status in world based on the 'bluffs' only right now, while China along with BRIC are the main reality of this world. and whether E7s accept this change or not, its on the table of war politics. but the way they are involved in organizing different wars every year, Afghanistan going on and at the same time targeting different nations one by one, Lybia, Syria and the list going on....... we always have a risk of wide scale war in world, its true :ranger:

I agree.
From an economic POV,
America is running on an empty tank nowadays. The inertia of the juggernaut that the US was, keeps it going. It is no more the manufacturing hub that it was 2-3 decades ago. American economy runs on Chinese goods, the lion's share of the tangible/consumable products in the American economy sports a 'Made in China' tag. Despite all these, they have put up a spectacular appearance of an economic powerhouse and they deserve credit for that. When this spectacular illusion falls apart, one will find an America impoverished,utterly dependent on imports, devoid of manufacturing backbone and devoid of skilled indigenous people to start up manufacturing.
The only reason, as you rightly pointed out the US and EU economies are still afloat is their debts. They are borrowing and in paying for the interest of that loan by borrowing again. This cycle will not continue forever and is bound to fall apart. Wait till Greek defaults, they won't be able to avoid that and then watch the domino effect. The crescendo will be collapse of the US economy and then the eventual collapse of the global financial system.

=> sir yesterday I was talking that, "Japan is the 3rd most powerful military of Asia, after China and India, but China has to think none while making a direct offensive on it, even if Japan is owing the most sophisticated technologies of the world too......."

and then I said, as we know too, "war is fought on the 'ground', while even aircrafts, naval arms etc of China is no inferior, while Russia shared its all the best arms with India......"

and then I reminded, how we were waiting for a response from the EU when Russian tanks rolled over Georgia in 2008, and Mr G.Brown only led EU till the end, by lips service only. while BRICS are definitely much more powerful than 5 years before, and their strength too will be multiplied with passage of Time, its also clear... :thumb:

Agree. EU won't dare cross Russia. Lip service is all it is capable of and lip service is all that Georgia will get.

I also compared US with SU/Russia which couldn't bear its expanses after 1990 and Russia had to destroy its half of the military arms, like how India is getting Gorskov which they decommissioned in early 90s as it wasn't easy to bear its expanses... while now Russia has almost 'no' debt, while US is heavily indebted and borrowing more and more to keep its military size. its accepted on the world platform that US has to reduce its military expanses but their debt borrowing habit has helped them maintain their current military size........

and hence, with the above bottom line facts, US and its allies are now left with two options only, either delay their fall while borrowing more debt for few more years, or, go for a direct war with BRIC and get sudden end

It will come to this at the end. If the current trends continue for 6-7 years, this is almost inevitable. The world never recovered from the 2008 recession. In fact it was a double dip recession and the second dip is going to come by the next year if not this year itself.

You'll be fascinated to know something about war economics. Wars do not deplete treasury. Well maybe in the short term, yes, but not in the long term. Wars provide impetus to research and manufacturing in a big way. All the industrially advanced nations of the world were not always like that. You'll see that their GDP sky-rocketed after the first and second world war. This applies especially to America. America could never have been the titan it was post-WW2 if it didn't participate in WW2. Same applies for USSR.
The problem starts when the country spends on wars which do not yield any tangible gains. For example, the war in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan were very profitable wars and the US, EU gained by waging those wars. In Libya, the French were awarded with billions of dollars in contract for rebuilding a nation their fighter planes bombed into Stone Age. In Afghanistan and Iraq, America has received a huge volume of contracts for rebuilding the nations. On top of that, they have gained control of key oil producing regions and are in a position to control its output. Of course, they still 'buy' the oil, but in their price, in their required volumes. Thus, war is also very profitable. So, if America falls, it will not be because it has waged wars. It will be because it cannot pay back the debts it took for whatever reasons.

 

[hello_10]

US and its allies have two options, either delay their fall while borrowing more debt for few more years, or, go for a direct war with BRIC and get sudden end

Sir, its written on the wall that China has changed this world. US is having high status in world based on the 'bluffs' only right now, while China along with BRIC are the main reality of this world. and whether E7s accept this change or not, its on the table of war politics. but the way they are involved in organizing different wars every year, Afghanistan going on and at the same time targeting different nations one by one, Lybia, Syria and the list going on....... we always have a risk of wide scale war in world, its true :ranger:

=> sir yesterday I was talking that, "Japan is the 3rd most powerful military of Asia, after China and India, but China has to think none while making a direct offensive on it, even if Japan is owing the most sophisticated technologies of the world too......."

and then I said, as we know too, "war is fought on the 'ground', while even aircrafts, naval arms etc of China is no inferior, while Russia shared its all the best arms with India......"

and then I reminded, how we were waiting for a response from the EU when Russian tanks rolled over Georgia in 2008, and Mr G.Brown only led EU till the end, by lips service only. while BRICS are definitely much more powerful than 5 years before, and their strength too will be multiplied with passage of Time, its also clear... :thumb:

(a developing country would at least have 5% growth rate on the long run, while E7s may hardly maintain their current economic size, which is still not easy without keep borrowing debts. but for how long, its the main question )

I also compared US with SU/Russia which couldn't bear its expanses after 1990 and Russia had to destroy its half of the military arms, like how India is getting Gorskov which they decommissioned in early 90s as it wasn't easy to bear its expanses... while now Russia has almost 'no' debt, while US is heavily indebted and borrowing more and more to keep its military size. its accepted on the world platform that US has to reduce its military expanses but their debt borrowing habit has helped them maintain their current military size........

and hence, with the above bottom line facts, US and its allies are now left with two options only, either delay their fall while borrowing more debt for few more years, or, go for a direct war with BRIC and get sudden end

here I was meant to say G7, but by typing mistake I wrote it E7 . thanks thumb:

 

[agentperry]

If that were true, kindly explain why none of the factors mentioned above can be reason enough to start a conflict.

factors are there since past many decades. rivalries precipitates over the century and even an inflicted wound of early centuries boil the blood of todays generation. so specifically considering 2013 as the onset of revisit of 1913 is more of fantasy to me.
the war is on on not one but various fronts- there is a war of business where every one wants to outsmart rival in terms of economics growth, there is a social and civilization war that my community is much superior to you community, then there is a war of influence, which has more follower (analogous to which one got more fb friends)
people are fighting on various fronts and not just military front. because of diverse ways of competing and contesting i dont think people will resort to any kind of violence like that of 1913 or ww1/2

 

[spikey360]

factors are there since past many decades. rivalries precipitates over the century and even an inflicted wound of early centuries boil the blood of todays generation. so specifically considering 2013 as the onset of revisit of 1913 is more of fantasy to me.
the war is on on not one but various fronts- there is a war of business where every one wants to outsmart rival in terms of economics growth, there is a social and civilization war that my community is much superior to you community, then there is a war of influence, which has more follower (analogous to which one got more fb friends)
people are fighting on various fronts and not just military front. because of diverse ways of competing and contesting i dont think people will resort to any kind of violence like that of 1913 or ww1/2

You would be surprised to know that this is exactly what people thought before both the world wars. They were proved wrong both of the times. Conflict forms the basis of human nature and human civilization. If humans were really heading towards a future of long lasting peace, why do you think countries still have large standing armies? Why have bombs, bombers, submarines and carriers? Surely there are very many other avenues in which all this fortune can be spent and that too in a productive way! But lo, that would be deviating from human nature. History repeats itself and mark my words, this time around too, the same will occur. The only tragedy is that, we would already be at war when we understand that it is war indeed.

 

[agentperry]

You would be surprised to know that this is exactly what people thought before both the world wars. They were proved wrong both of the times. Conflict forms the basis of human nature and human civilization. If humans were really heading towards a future of long lasting peace, why do you think countries still have large standing armies? Why have bombs, bombers, submarines and carriers? Surely there are very many other avenues in which all this fortune can be spent and that too in a productive way! But lo, that would be deviating from human nature. History repeats itself and mark my words, this time around too, the same will occur. The only tragedy is that, we would already be at war when we understand that it is war indeed.

ironically countries didnt have armies and such huge cache of arms before worldwar, the best weapons were invented only DURING the war. see the development of aircrafts in world war 1 and 2 and the pace afterwards.

 

[spikey360]

ironically countries didnt have armies and such huge cache of arms before worldwar, the best weapons were invented only DURING the war. see the development of aircrafts in world war 1 and 2 and the pace afterwards.

Your point being?

 

[agentperry]

Your point being?

with the present standing armies no one will take the risk of waging a war because people know what damage can be inflicted upon them, in ww 1 and 2 armies rose in between the wars and thats the most interesting and dynamic nature of ww1 and 2

 

[spikey360]

with the present standing armies no one will take the risk of waging a war because people know what damage can be inflicted upon them, in ww 1 and 2 armies rose in between the wars and thats the most interesting and dynamic nature of ww1 and 2

Well, no point in arguing about the future. But I do say this, good luck with that simplistic assessment of yours.