When, Where and How China Will Attack India

[no smoking]

We are on the heights they are below or same level. They have to send forces up.

I believe Chinese posts are mostly higher than India's. But still, they need come down from their mountains to climb up to your mountains.

Capturing Indian posts is one task holding it is another. Both are tough. But This is for sure that they will do such sort of small scale adventure.

Reoccupying posts on hills is the most toughest job, better to keep the enemy busy inside their territory.

No, India is standing closer to her logistics centre only hundreds km inside her land while Chinese has to transport everything, from uniform to bullets thousands km away. More importantly, the death rate of truck drivers in those mountains is ridiculously high even in peace time. So, unless India push China into corner, war is not their option.

 

[hit&run]

Agreed to SOME EXTENT.
We should, before discussing a counter strategy, discuss china's weakness.
Ideological
-> The CCP derives its legitimacy from "winning", which means as long as China is successful & prosperous, the Chinese can not revolt. This condition becomes tighter with time. e.g. In the 50s and 60s the layman never cared about stocks shares etc. He just needed bread 3x a day. Now everyone sees Hollywood / TV and wants a good job + economic safety. [This is true for India too, we kept voting congis even in 91 after going bankrupt. And now because our GDP growth got screwed we kicked them out.]
Strategic
-> The Himalayas are the guardians of India and due to the adverse position of the PLA and higher / advantageous position of IA overall, China will have to contend with higher troop causalities. That's not bravado, that is a fact of war. Plus we have brahmos and will soon have 145 LWH guns too... China has stationed airports in tibet, but we can factor them in and worst case , blow them up with Brahmos(most expensive ) or Agni I or whatever.
Tactical
-> Not only the PLA has remained untested, it is also burndened with a "political class". These are the CCP members that propagate the Chinese ideology (Han nationalism , Chinese Cultural "supremacy", Communism with Chinese characteristics.) etc etc. There war plans and doctrines are untested and these political officers may serve as dead weight. Exactly how much must be seen.

Do note that Tactical (is a subset of ) Strategic (is a subset of ) Ideological.
Solving the China problem is like solving the point A to B mazes in the Sunday news papers .... the fastest way to begin is from the end

Now let us define what a "win" is for us. Deterring a war in the first place is a win for us. So we first gain an advantage in Tactical ( a good mountain strike corps, Troops having functional guns and BP jackets for a change ), Strategic ( More howitzers , AA Guns etc) will create an ideological danger to china( if we lose territory/ Economic strength , we will be booted out)

And that is how we handle the china problem... easier said than done with Kongtards, AAPtards, Lalu , mullah-i-am and previous def mins like AK Antony and prev PM like Gujaral etc

Good Effort.

Your first point 'in three words' is; Mandate of Heaven.

Shallow Chinese trolls will try to downplay it. Their argument that dictatorial CCP doesn't need to restore to any method to address resentment of the people is pure bull crap. CCP spends millions of dollars in propaganda; to keep the masses placid.

As long as Chinese are getting jobs CCP will have the mandate of heaven. Not to mention War is another way of creating more jobs but that will depends on how much China is capable of churning out weapon/systems from its MIC. Then we all know wars are biggest detraction. So My first point for this thread 1: Watch Chinese MIC capabilities and economy. And it is an extension of your point 'Ideology'.

Your 2nd and 3rd point has got mixed up with war scenarios and operational tactics. I think we are not discussing war or I would say we shouldn't discuss war first but the possibility of war.

And without discussing Logistic My second point for this thread 2: Logistics. Your point 2 and 3 are falling early in the list without mention of logistics.

Logistics doesn't favor China, period.

But is it the end of the story ? No. China is in a hurry to improve logistics. They are running like a marathon runner to build infrastructure and even doing military drills which are also maneuvering in nature. So the possibility of war is already building up but not that soon. Only when China will be ready and It depends on Indian response to it as well.

Which my third point 3.: Indian response. We have already improved our air lift capabilities manifold. One poster started a thread if Modi is military mind/strategist or not. I saved my response fearing that thread will go political. Here I would request the OP to look how Modi responded to Nepal Earthquake and how Chinese reacted (Which many of us didn't read it but reduced to making fun of their inferiority complex etc.).

Modi has already won a war (one aspect of war) for us; that is air lift of logistics. We just threw a Monkey ranch on their Blue print of pushing anything across LOC. Now they are going to take more time to come back with more foolproof plan vis a vis logistics.


ll write more if got time. ..........................

 

[Bhadra]

Discussing everything else but not

When?

How ?

and where ?

It presupposes that China will attack India ! Do not discuss that !

 

[Bhadra]

Agreed to SOME EXTENT.
We should, before discussing a counter strategy, discuss china's weakness.

Varahamihir wrote :

I'm a firm believer that there will be a war between India and China.

He then asked - when, where and how ?

Answer that before deciding counter strategy. Unless one know when, how and where , how can there be counter strategy .... right.

 

[Bhadra]

Ladakh, Himachal, Uttaranchal, Sikkim, Arunachal. They will simply send their mountain division to occupy our posts.

What will they gain by doing that ? territory or image bursting ?

In today's scenario, and under today's comparative strengths, can they keep the territory they would gain or will India be able to take it back ? If India takes back the lost territory, or gains some more, would that be favourable to China?

Will India be able to gain equivalent amount or more amount of their territory in Tibet?

If so, what will be the end state or likely end state?

Would a stalemate be favourable to the image of China or India ?

Would the likely War aims have been achieved ?


It is much better and easier for China to arm Pakistan and achieve image busting through that route.- Chinese missiles and tanks attacking India via Lahore. Hence elimination of Pakistan as proxy of China and Western World is important for India's larger security .

 

[Screambowl]

What will they gain by doing that ? territory or image bursting ?

In today's scenario, and under today's comparative strengths, can they keep the territory they would gain or will India be able to take it back ? If India takes back the lost territory, or gains some more, would that be favourable to China?

In 1962 also their motive was to decline the image of Nehru and India in the west, that India cannot safeguard it's territory and is a paper Tiger.

Only IF India takes back. Because I don't doubt the soldiers but the absurd policy of not crossing the border.

Will India be able to gain equivalent amount or more amount of their territory in Tibet?

The answer for that question depends on who is the PM then. Our soft power image does not allow us to cross LOC or LAC to show the latter an aggressive party and we either lose the territory or do a stalemate.

If so, what will be the end state or likely end state?

Would a stalemate be favourable to the image of China or India ?

Would the likely War aims have been achieved ?

For China, it will be either gain of territory or stalemate. So definitely favourable to them but not us. As they have better chance of taking our territory and we have no chance at all of taking their territory.

My sole argument is why to take chance of either losing or doing stalemate. You will send soldiers to die for the country without gaining anything. Only getting back what belongs to us. This is NOT done.

It is much better and easier for China to arm Pakistan and achieve image busting through that route.- Chinese missiles and tanks attacking India via Lahore. Hence elimination of Pakistan as proxy of China and Western World is important for India's larger security .

Pakistan is definitely a proxy of China. And for this reason we speak about two frontal war.

In war with China, Pakistan will use it's proxy against India specially in Kashmir. Similar to Mujahideen sitting on peaks and bombing the highway.

The intelligence of Pakistan will be fully diverted to assist China. Hence double work for RAW.

 

[Rowdy]

Answer that before deciding counter strategy. Unless one know when, how and where , how can there be counter strategy .... right.

When-
Being the stronger party and agressor it'll will be at a time of China's choosing.
Where- LOC
How - PLA and IA.

 

[Rowdy]

When-
Being the stronger party and agressor it'll will be at a time of China's choosing.
Where- LOC
How - PLA and IA.

Typo that's LAC with possible Pak support.

 

[Bhadra]

When-
Being the stronger party and agressor it'll will be at a time of China's choosing.
Where- LOC
How - PLA and IA.

Unfortunately dear sir / darling madame , if the answers were to be so simple.. India would not be spending billions on RAW, IB, Mil Int and Foreign Ministry. Army, Aiarforce, Navy, academia and so many other resources. / jokers.. or good / bad guys.

The question is what can be the time of China's choosing? Can you please identify that time when China thinks it is the time ?

Where - LOC ??

What are they going to gain there ? They have gained whatever they had to ...!!

Is not UNSC the correct time to block Indian move on Lakhavi... ?? Is that" where" or not ??

Why only LOC ---what about Baltistan, Gilgit or POK ?

Why not Indian ocean... sink some indian ships and submarines..

Why not long range missiles ? Bomb you out of shape..

Why not Bay of Bengal ..??

Why not from Myanmar..

Why not inciting insurgency as very low cost option..
Why not from Pakistan ??

Oofs.. you have a long list to answer ??? My dear / darling... do not sleep before answering these..

How ? PLA and IA.....

You mean wrestling... Hmmmm No .. I do think so.. only as a last resort..

 

[Rowdy]

Unfortunately dear sir / darling madame , if the answers were to be so simple.. India would not be spending billions on RAW, IB, Mil Int and Foreign Ministry. Army, Aiarforce, Navy, academia and so many other resources. / jokers.. or good / bad guys.

The question is what can be the time of China's choosing? Can you please identify that time when China thinks it is the time ?

Where - LOC ??

What are they going to gain there ? They have gained whatever they had to ...!!

Is not UNSC the correct time to block Indian move on Lakhavi... ?? Is that" where" or not ??

Why only LOC ---what about Baltistan, Gilgit or POK ?

Why not Indian ocean... sink some indian ships and submarines..

Why not long range missiles ? Bomb you out of shape..

Why not Bay of Bengal ..??

Why not from Myanmar..

Why not inciting insurgency as very low cost option..
Why not from Pakistan ??

Oofs.. you have a long list to answer ??? My dear / darling... do not sleep before answering these..

How ? PLA and IA.....

You mean wrestling... Hmmmm No .. I do think so.. only as a last resort..

@Varahamihira Lets fix Mr. Bhadras appointment with Xi Jinping
I am sure China will vacate Tibet

 

[Screambowl]

Unfortunately dear sir / darling madame , if the answers were to be so simple.. India would not be spending billions on RAW, IB, Mil Int and Foreign Ministry. Army, Aiarforce, Navy, academia and so many other resources. / jokers.. or good / bad guys.

The question is what can be the time of China's choosing? Can you please identify that time when China thinks it is the time ?

Where - LOC ??

What are they going to gain there ? They have gained whatever they had to ...!!

Is not UNSC the correct time to block Indian move on Lakhavi... ?? Is that" where" or not ??

Why only LOC ---what about Baltistan, Gilgit or POK ?

Why not Indian ocean... sink some indian ships and submarines..

Why not long range missiles ? Bomb you out of shape..

Why not Bay of Bengal ..??

Why not from Myanmar..

Why not inciting insurgency as very low cost option..
Why not from Pakistan ??

Oofs.. you have a long list to answer ??? My dear / darling... do not sleep before answering these..

How ? PLA and IA.....

You mean wrestling... Hmmmm No .. I do think so.. only as a last resort..

The simplest answer is their presence is more close to LOC and LAC and can move their brigade within 37 hours. And the disputed is land not sea.

Bay of Bengal, Myanmar, IO. They have to come all the way to this place and it will not be an element of surprize. We have strong hold there through our off shore territories. Plus we are not talking about full scale war. A full scale war would lead to use of nuclear weapons.

And involvement of Pakistan can be in two ways.

1) Helping China in logistics and intel and proxies
2) After China ends war with India , Pakistan opens its front.

Just like in 1962 and then within 3 years Pak attacked India.

 

[Bhadra]

In 1962 also their motive was to decline the image of Nehru and India in the west, that India cannot safeguard it's territory and is a paper Tiger.

Absolutely correct. They wanted China to be leader of Thirld World and Non Alignment movement rather than Nehru who was a bluff master.

Only IF India takes back. Because I don't doubt the soldiers but the absurd policy of not crossing the border.

I think India has that capability by now.... even in 1962 we demonstrated that we can hold certain areas like Demchok and Chushul.. and we did take back Tawang..

The answer for that question depends on who is the PM then. Our soft power image does not allow us to cross LOC or LAC to show the latter an aggressive party and we either lose the territory or do a stalemate.

Whosoever may the PM / RM .. status quoist means we will take back our territoty.. we do not wants others nor we will we allow to take others territory.. and why should we cross LAC or LoC ?? Not required in the present circumstances until we grow some muscles.. and muscles do not grow in days..

For China, it will be either gain of territory or stalemate. So definitely favourable to them but not us. As they have better chance of taking our territory and we have no chance at all of taking their territory.

The entire statement is not reconcilable. Ok tell me what happened to their punishment operations in Vietnam or Cambodia ?? That is what I am referring to. Not winning comprehensively is a loss of face for China.

My sole argument is why to take chance of either losing or doing stalemate. You will send soldiers to die for the country without gaining anything. Only getting back what belongs to us. This is NOT done.

Losing to China No...no.. giving a stalemate to PLA.. yes and why not..?

Pakistan is definitely a proxy of China. And for this reason we speak about two frontal war.

bUT cHINA IS DOING ALL ITS BEST TO KEEP iNDIA ENGAGED AT ONE FRONT ONLY... pAKISTAN...

However, what are we doing... Can we open up multiple fronts for China ? Say Tibet, Xinjiang, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, Japan, USA and Taiwan Russia, Kirghizia, Mongolia etc etc..?? Indian successes would lie there...

In war with China, Pakistan will use it's proxy against India specially in Kashmir. Similar to Mujahideen sitting on peaks and bombing the highway.

tAKE IT FOR SURE THAT IN INDIA'S WAR WITH CHINA PAKISTAN WOULD BE OPENLY HOSTILE AND ATTACK INDIA.

The intelligence of Pakistan will be fully diverted to assist China. Hence double work for RAW.

I agree but RAW or no RAW ... it is going to be cut out task for Indian Defense Forces. The job of the RAW is to inform Where, how and when China / Pakistan will attack India ? If this much information is given, Indian Forces will win the war !!

 

[Bhadra]

Yar , satte mat maro .. kam ki baat karo..

 

[Bhadra]

@Varahamihira Lets fix Mr. Bhadras appointment with Xi Jinping
I am sure China will vacate Tibet

Pahale apni appointment Le le phir meri baat karna.. aur usase pahale apani photo badali kar lena... smajhe / smajhi..

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

First, China should try to fix the economic mess they are going to get into. I see tough times ahead for them as the easy growth period is over.

To distract their countrymen they can do a small attack here or there but nothing big. So India should hold tight and reply in kind.

 

[Rowdy]

Pahale apni appointment Le le phir meri baat karna.. aur usase pahale apani photo badali kar lena... smajhe / smajhi..

Sir,
I am just an average fish eating, noodle armed engineer. I wear fat glasses with a thick frame. I am no match for you. I am a man, and I like chicks that show skin.

 

[Bhadra]

First, China should try to fix the economic mess they are going to get into. I see tough times ahead for them as the easy growth period is over.

To distract their countrymen they can do a small attack here or there but nothing big. So India should hold tight and reply in kind.

I agree.. unfortunately weaker moments are reasons for countries to go to war ... for example Germany... Iraq Vs Iran... Lebanon etc .. and our good neighbour Pakistan..

 

[Bhadra]

Sir,
I am just an average fish eating, noodle armed engineer. I wear fat glasses with a thick frame. I am no match for you. I am a man, and I like chicks that show skin.

It is absolutely very fine darling.. when one indulges on to internet all probabilities / possibilities are there .. do not you see my condition every now and then... when you have put yourself in the peril the face dangers...

Rahi manua dukh ki chinta kyon satati hai... Ak one of the songs I like..

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

I agree.. unfortunately weaker moments are reasons for countries to go to war ... for example Germany... Iraq Vs Iran... Lebanon etc .. and our good neighbour Pakistan..

Depends what you loose in a war. Current China is no brow-beaten and hungry Germany or Iraq. They have much to loose if they go to war in terms of stability and image.

 

[Screambowl]

Absolutely correct. They wanted China to be leader of Thirld World and Non Alignment movement rather than Nehru who was a bluff master.



I think India has that capability by now.... even in 1962 we demonstrated that we can hold certain areas like Demchok and Chushul.. and we did take back Tawang..

India surely had the capability in 1962 also to give a setback to incoming chinese attack. But we depend too much on second or third hand foreign information, about Chinese adventure in Tibet. Thus the reliability is questioned and loss and leak of info happens.

India needs a special desk for aggressive collection of info on Chinese economy, industrial and defense.

Whosoever may the PM / RM .. status quoist means we will take back our territoty.. we do not wants others nor we will we allow to take others territory.. and why should we cross LAC or LoC ?? Not required in the present circumstances until we grow some muscles.. and muscles do not grow in days..

Mansarovar Kailash was our territory, they brought us on the roundtable and said you take sikkim give us Kailash. Though Sikkim was not even Chinese territory but Mansarovar Kailash was ours.

So such kind of statement is atleast not acceptable for me.

They have created a buffer point, which is known as Tibet.

For ex: A captures territories in B after 40 years B takes back those territories. This means B has not gained territory but got back it's own territory back. And did not capture any part inside A.

The entire statement is not reconcilable. Ok tell me what happened to their punishment operations in Vietnam or Cambodia ?? That is what I am referring to. Not winning comprehensively is a loss of face for China.

China was not a better power than today it is during that period.

Losing to China No...no.. giving a stalemate to PLA.. yes and why not..?

I would call it stalemate when we get back Mansarovar and Aksai Chin.

bUT cHINA IS DOING ALL ITS BEST TO KEEP iNDIA ENGAGED AT ONE FRONT ONLY... pAKISTAN...

However, what are we doing... Can we open up multiple fronts for China ? Say Tibet, Xinjiang, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand, Japan, USA and Taiwan Russia, Kirghizia, Mongolia etc etc..?? Indian successes would lie there...

Only diplomatically but guns will be fired by our soldiers only. One can expect support from Vietnam due to their marine dispute with China. But neither Russia, nor mongolia, or thailand, will directly involved. And at most till diplomatic level you can have their presence.

tAKE IT FOR SURE THAT IN INDIA'S WAR WITH CHINA PAKISTAN WOULD BE OPENLY HOSTILE AND ATTACK INDIA.

1 ) As I said , Pakistan will give indirect support (unofficial), Kashmir movement will have the momentum, Mujahideens will strike. In case India China get into conflict.

2 ) Pakistan India gets into conflict , China will give indirect support

3) Both opening fronts officially , is a possibility but then if three nuclear powers engage in war, then world has to intervene. Not China, but Pakistan will be surely contained by US and Russians. We should trust our diplomacy at least.

4) After China India signs cease fire, Pakistan opens its front. as I said in previous post. 62 happened and then happened 65.


They will keep poking one by one.

I agree but RAW or no RAW ... it is going to be cut out task for Indian Defense Forces. The job of the RAW is to inform Where, how and when China / Pakistan will attack India ? If this much information is given, Indian Forces will win the war !!

Not Just that, RAW also needs to create network of humanit and proxies to work for the India's interest and to cut enemy movement before it execute plans or anything.