When, Where and How China Will Attack India

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Varahamihira, Jul 7, 2015.

  1. Varahamihira

    Varahamihira Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2015
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    248
    I don't know whether this thread should be created or not.If moderator or Admin thinks otherwise please delete the thread.

    Ok coming to the topic.
    Internally Chinese Govt. is on anti-corruption spree and rumors are Jiang Zemin is next.And it seems top military guys are not happy and I read there might have been some assassination attempts on Xi himself(not confirmed by anyone,refer them as rumors).
    Now Chinese stock market is seeing new lows every day and their Govt. is pumping whatever it can into stock market.Now some say Chine GDP is not growing at 7.1% but around 4%.I don't have any data to prove but it is well known that China heavily manipulates their market.

    Just like any other country China too have ethnic strife.We don't know how serious it is but in one case their ex President Hu Jintao left G-7 meeting when tensions rose in Muslim region Xinjiang I think.

    And more importantly China has to grow to sustain their development.To achieve this they used and will use every black and white trick in their sleeves.

    To unite every Chinese from these problem they have solution.WAR.
    But who will be the opponent.
    There is no better rival to defeat than India.
    It will serve all their goals.
    Unite China,reinstate themselves as Big Boss of Asia.

    I'm a firm believer that there will be a war between India and China.

    My question is When,Where and How China Will Attack India.
    And how we should prepare.
     
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2015
  2.  
  3. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    3,256
    Likes Received:
    2,959
    Location:
    Milky Bar
    Agreed to SOME EXTENT.
    We should, before discussing a counter strategy, discuss china's weakness.
    Ideological
    -> The CCP derives its legitimacy from "winning", which means as long as China is successful & prosperous, the Chinese can not revolt. This condition becomes tighter with time. e.g. In the 50s and 60s the layman never cared about stocks shares etc. He just needed bread 3x a day. Now everyone sees Hollywood / TV and wants a good job + economic safety. [This is true for India too, we kept voting congis even in 91 after going bankrupt. And now because our GDP growth got screwed we kicked them out.]
    Strategic
    -> The Himalayas are the guardians of India and due to the adverse position of the PLA and higher / advantageous position of IA overall, China will have to contend with higher troop causalities. That's not bravado, that is a fact of war. Plus we have brahmos and will soon have 145 LWH guns too... China has stationed airports in tibet, but we can factor them in and worst case , blow them up with Brahmos(most expensive ) or Agni I or whatever.
    Tactical
    -> Not only the PLA has remained untested, it is also burndened with a "political class". These are the CCP members that propagate the Chinese ideology (Han nationalism , Chinese Cultural "supremacy", Communism with Chinese characteristics.) etc etc. There war plans and doctrines are untested and these political officers may serve as dead weight. Exactly how much must be seen.

    Do note that Tactical (is a subset of ) Strategic (is a subset of ) Ideological.
    Solving the China problem is like solving the point A to B mazes in the Sunday news papers .... the fastest way to begin is from the end :lol:
    [​IMG]

    Now let us define what a "win" is for us. Deterring a war in the first place is a win for us. So we first gain an advantage in Tactical ( a good mountain strike corps, Troops having functional guns and BP jackets for a change :lol: ), Strategic ( More howitzers , AA Guns etc) will create an ideological danger to china( if we lose territory/ Economic strength , we will be booted out)

    And that is how we handle the china problem... easier said than done with Kongtards, AAPtards, Lalu , mullah-i-am and previous def mins like AK Antony and prev PM like Gujaral etc
     
    jackprince, Kharavela, 26/11 and 2 others like this.
  4. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2009
    Messages:
    4,676
    Likes Received:
    3,352
    The threat from China is real, If ever China tries any adventure with India, Pakistan also joins with China.

    India should be prepared to wage two front defensive wars.

    Economy wise a wiser china will make trade agreements with India since India can help China in this regard. Also, as China becomes consumption based economy, it will be India that is better placed to export goods to China.

    There is an opportunity and then there is a danger for both the Nations.
     
    indiatester and Screambowl like this.
  5. Sylex21

    Sylex21 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    439
    Likes Received:
    326
    Location:
    USA
    Unrealistic for many many reasons.

    1. India might see China as its #1 threat, but China does not see India as its #1 threat. If China HAD to start a war they would probably attempt an invasion of Taiwan, or attack the Japanese that they so hate and take over the Senkaku Islands / Diaoyudao Islands

    2. China really isn't in any position to attack India. The first thing India would do is blockade all the oil going to China and that would be very painful for China's economy. Yes their navy might be able to break through, but it is hard to take on an aircraft carrier the size of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Even if China ultimately is able to win at sea, it would probably cost them more money than the war could ever earn them.

    3. Invading a nation is much harder than defending. China will be at a massive disadvantage attacking positions fortified over decades. They would have to deal with one hell of a gorilla war, once they entered India proper.

    4. These days the international community jumps on any aggressor. India could expect massive aid from the USA, Japan and others.

    5. The risk of nuclear war is too great. Nuclear war would ruin both countries, but China currently has more to lose because they are currently better off.

    6. Risk to China's image. China will look weak if it attacks and is unable to show any significant gains for their effort. India is not going to sit back and let China hold any new India territory, without launching a perpetual war.
     
  6. Sylex21

    Sylex21 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    439
    Likes Received:
    326
    Location:
    USA

    Realistically Pakistan would just sit back and watch. It would take very few Indian forces to defend against a Pakistani invasion, so it wouldn't be much of a drain on India to just hold Pakistan back in Indian territory. No one wants to stick their neck out for anyone else.

    If we jump to the unrealistic conclusions that allies will get involved for each other, then it is equally likely to assume the USA invades Pakistan from the Afghani side the minute they attack India, and Japan launches an all out attack on all Chinese ports.
     
    SANITY and DingDong like this.
  7. Screambowl

    Screambowl Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Messages:
    4,637
    Likes Received:
    3,257
    Location:
    N/A
    China at most can devastate India's image of being regional power and growing economy not to take back land but to bow India down. This will they do for sure and we need to prepare for that.
     
    Varahamihira likes this.
  8. Varahamihira

    Varahamihira Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2015
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    248
    Ok for the sake of argument let say all hell broke and China decided to go on war with India then When,Where and How China will attack India.
    Put all scenarios that China can use i.e.economic pressure on countries of Indian Sub-Continent(our neighbors) or giving sweat irresistible deals to SE Asian countries or some other military techniques.
    How will we counter balance them?
     
  9. Screambowl

    Screambowl Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Messages:
    4,637
    Likes Received:
    3,257
    Location:
    N/A
    Ladakh, Himachal, Uttaranchal, Sikkim, Arunachal. They will simply send their mountain division to occupy our posts.
     
    Varahamihira likes this.
  10. Varahamihira

    Varahamihira Regular Member

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2015
    Messages:
    242
    Likes Received:
    248
    They will prepare as if they are preparing a war with America but they will strike India(i.e.if they have to fight a war with some country)

    They won't escalate it to Nuclear but definitely would go for a limited war to get Tawang.It's upto us to make the war a long one and non conventional.

    International Community is US,UK,Germany, Canada,Australia.They look for their profits.

    China never worried about their image when it comes to occupying others land.
     
    ARUN R, Rowdy and Screambowl like this.
  11. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2009
    Messages:
    3,248
    Likes Received:
    1,863
    im not sure if they will do it for sure as you have suggested but it is a strong possibility

    yes these areas are very vulnerable

    but to come babck to the question in the title

    when will china attack ? when they see that our goi is not developing tejas that we have age-old MiG 21 not being replaced and crashing month after month after month - when they see tenders for essential equipment which are absolutely necessary and nothing coming back from the tenders and being scrapped when they see huge delays that gives them a substantial advantage in force strength - then they will likely do some land -grab

    dont see them going for a huge war that will get the bogged down for a long time , but rather 1962 -style , quick land -grab and it's over before the world can even come to india's aid , just as in 1962 and our nehru by that time had already lost the guts to retaliate

    event though india was so badly prepared in 1962, if we had accepted US aid and from other countries to build-up the air fore , we could some time in 1963 i.e. months or one year later - have taken aksai back from them - but a broken nehru had given up and was heading towards collapse ( poor chap )

    so china will attack next when they see that type of political leadership - a pm who doesnt have the guts to take back any lost territory , then they know they can have it for all time and eternity .

    and really it could even be anytime now , because although i respect Namo for his economic reform and all that , in terms of defence he has not been substantially different from a weakling UPA which we had before him - yes he appears a bit stronger , but still not strong enough from my reckoning to deter an aggressive ccpchina-pack combination

    we need someone who can act like Khruschev .....but it has to be backed up by a solid armaments compilation and not 10 yrs for rafael tender and then bs results so another 5 years to get even the first plane ( but dont get me wrong , i didnt say i wanted a Khruschev, just that only for the area of defence we need a pm and defence minister who can ACT like that - give ccpchina a good talking down to - but as i said the hardware must also be there - i.e. in short demonstrate the willingness to use our nukes if necessary )

    if china need to attack it could be now !

    second possible scenario is to build packland up from the teetering nation they are now into a stronger nation via ccpchina-packland economic corridor and other initiatives and then use packland to attack india - this i feel is the most likely scenario ...i.e. that china will fight india to the last packlander .

    third scenario , china will attack india via squeezing our sea lanes and string of pearls - this i consider to be not a very viable alternative as india is pretty strong in the naval arena

    so the most likely is that ccpchina will take 10 to 15 years to build up packland and then start some mischief which will force packland to start aggression to india - that way china sits back and watch their proxy do things for them - it is the most profitable scenario and they are not even involved and do not need to get their fingers soiled

    ref @bose @brational @anupamsurey @ersakthivel @Blackwater @cobra commando @Hari Sud @Kunal Biswas @LETHALFORCE @pmaitra @Rowdy @Sakal Gharelu Ustad @Srinivas_K @sorcerer @TejasMK3 @Yusuf @jackprince @Bangalorean @indiandefencefan
    @aliyah @hit&run @VIP @Razor @Blood+ @Sylex21 @angeldude13 @blueblood @DingDong @Zebra
     
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2015
  12. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2012
    Messages:
    1,054
    Likes Received:
    862
    Location:
    Ontario
    These, Chinese attack scenarios have been discussed at length by various Indian commentators and screw ball western commentators, who like to scare India to submission. They have events of 1962 to quote.

    No, Chinese are unlikely to test Indian Army in the Himalayas. It is too difficult and anything short of victory for Chinese is a loss of face. Indian army of today is much different from Army of 1962. Remember Vietnam in 1978, Chinese lost heavily but screwball western commentators gave Chinese the thumbs up. It only became clear later that Chinese lost heavily. The west flush with Nixon - Mao dialogue wished to give Chinese side an advantage at that time. It is only now they began to acknowledge that Chinese lost heavily. This scenario gets repeated if Chinese attempt a repeat of 1962, again.

    If Chinese cannot score a quick victory or loose their face in the Himalayas, where else are they going to try next?

    The Indian Ocean.

    Again, beset with overconfidence, they are building a low grade navy, which is afraid of the deep. Much of their nuclear submarines have been thru the shallow coastal waters and have not tested the deep. Their new, Soviet built Aircraft carrier is still awaiting at the docks, about ten years after purchase. They are copying and building their own, but success is not on their side. Also it is not easy to master the Aircraft Carriers offensive capability or Nuclear Submarine operation if you just began yesterday. You have a long way to go. But overconfident as they are, they may send an armada to Indian Ocean, only to be confronted by well tried and tested India Navy with shore planes and bombs only an hour's flight from the shores. Surrounded and not with allies, these ships will be found at the bottom of the sea sooner than they think.. Loss of life will be so great that the Chinese Government will fall.

    Hence, Chinese will continue to intimidate but will not unleash a war either in Himalayas or in the Ocean. As an alternative, they would continue to encourage Pakistan and occasionally send ships and submarines to friendly countries on a port call.

    ..... Cheers.
     
    Kharavela and LETHALFORCE like this.
  13. jouni

    jouni Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2014
    Messages:
    3,898
    Likes Received:
    1,123
    Location:
    finland
    We would bring our Navy to Indias help, that is the least we can do. Embargo always works against any aggressor.
     
    26/11, DingDong, Screambowl and 2 others like this.
  14. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2014
    Messages:
    3,256
    Likes Received:
    2,959
    Location:
    Milky Bar
    sudden love for india :eek: :eek: :eek:
     
    Screambowl and jouni like this.
  15. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2009
    Messages:
    3,173
    Likes Received:
    422
    That is a typical elected leader's thinking: how to save his next election. Unfortunately that is not what CCP thinks. Except the top 7 bosses, most of they are not staying in the position for only 4 years but 10 year, 15 years or even longer. So any decision must have long term positive effect, especially a war. All the problems you listed can't be fixed by a war. Yes, a war may unite chinese temporally, but what will happen after the war? Problems are still there and highly likely everyone of them is still in the position. More importantly, the resource they need to fix the problems is already consumed by the war.

    Why? India is not the smallest one, or resource-richest one either. India is not even the one Chinese hates.
    I don't see how India could be a target above all!

    Don't overstate India's influence, India is not even an obstacle in the way becoming boss of Asia, USA is.
    East Asians won't give a damn if China can defeat India.
     
  16. prohumanity

    prohumanity Regular Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2013
    Messages:
    889
    Likes Received:
    548
    Location:
    USA
    Dear fearmonger and warmongers.....I have a disappointing news for you. China and India are not going to war in next 1000 years. Yes, agents of current hegemons have this wishful thinking as they are losing their power and domination.
    Smart people can see thru the western crookedness of pitting India and China against each other. They will never succeed as long people like Putin, Modi and Xi are leading. DIVIDE AND CONQUER is an outdated concept. These "Goras" think everyone else is plain stupid. The hegemony is ending...mark my words and keep watching the downfall of dividers.
     
    SANITY likes this.
  17. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2009
    Messages:
    3,173
    Likes Received:
    422
    Then what, India will simply send her mountain division to re-occupy their posts. After that, what can Chinese do? Coming back to replay the capture-lost again and again? Why do you think Chinese withdrew their forces from Arunachal in 1962? They couldn't hold it.
     
  18. Screambowl

    Screambowl Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Messages:
    4,637
    Likes Received:
    3,257
    Location:
    N/A
    We are on the heights they are below or same level. They have to send forces up.
    Capturing Indian posts is one task holding it is another. Both are tough. But This is for sure that they will do such sort of small scale adventure.

    Reoccupying posts on hills is the most toughest job, better to keep the enemy busy inside their territory.
     
  19. Screambowl

    Screambowl Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Messages:
    4,637
    Likes Received:
    3,257
    Location:
    N/A

    They are also lacking with their stealth fighter program due to lack of enough technical support to produce aircraft engine, and also in naval programs. But they are compensating it with the industrial advantage they have which is satisfactory if not good. Economy is something which India needs.

    If we have a GDP growth of 8-9 percent we are totally safe.

    lack of privatisation in defense programs is hitting us the most. Current govt. is basically trying to import technology to boost our private sectors though Make in India. It should work.

    Kargil type operation is something which could be done by China, specially those places where water resource is in abundance. Plus the incursions are day today scenarios. But if they try to cut our routes and do the bargaining business then counter attack is required.
     
    LETHALFORCE likes this.
  20. blueblood

    blueblood Senior Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2011
    Messages:
    1,871
    Likes Received:
    1,429
    Every few months some newbie come running with a "China is going to attack India" based on the flimsiest logic and little to no understanding of Geo-political and military affairs. During the late 2000s it used to mirror the 12th five year plan, 2012-2017.o_O

    OP did not provide us with ample evidence of motive, planning and execution. I think OP should refrain from watching India Tv.

    It is possible that China is trying to be the badass it thinks it is but why India and why today?

    • PLA (tri-services) modernization is far from over. A war with India is just going to mess up with the modernization. With China intending to rival US is the coming decades, as of today India is nothing but a distraction.
    • Indian Navy dominates SLOCs and oil supply route. For PLAN to challenge that it will have move significant amount of assets into Indian Ocean and thus leaving its own backyard open to JSDMF, USN etc. I think I will trust the intelligence of PLA decision makers that they understand they understand the meaning of logistics.
    • PLAN has never ever participated in a major naval battle. Infact, the last time China took part in naval battle was the battle of Yalu River (1894) i.e. more than 120 years ago.
    • Last time Chinese pilots flew against an enemy was the Korean war. They had abysmal kill ratio against US when flying Mig-15 against F-86 Sabre.
    It's just me but I think they would like to test their skills on someone softer and less experienced than India. Chinese members are free to correct me if they want.

    As for the political ramifications, even a stalemate will create huge problems because absolute victory is next to impossible. Terrain is very harsh and passes are not all weather. It will also result in the end of India's balancing act and if China thinks that US-Japan alliance is the worst, wait till India joins the opposing team. Political suicide?

    And do I even need to write the economic repercussions?

    In conclusion, just relax. Chinese are many things but stupid is not one of them. Those so called "border intrusions" will continue to happen. Learn to live with it.
     
    LETHALFORCE likes this.
  21. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    31,663
    Likes Received:
    17,161
    Location:
    EST, USA
    Very good and well argued post.

    In the portion quoted above, I agree with the green part, but I am trying to see the reasoning behind the red part.
     

Share This Page