What would happen if BJP looses the election ?

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by CrYsIs, Apr 19, 2014.

  1. CrYsIs

    CrYsIs Regular Member

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    Though BJP is likely to win this election but there is a small possibility of it loosing.


    The next 5 years is the most crucial time for India.Majority of Indians are very young and restless without a formal job.These youngsters would turn to crime,drugs and radicalism if they are not provided with jobs.We can clearly see that in Punjab where it is estimated that overwhelming majority of rural youngsters are hooked to cocaine.

    To create job and reduce mass poverty we need manufacturing on a mass scale.For manufacturing you need infrastructure.Unfortunately India has a very limited manufacturing and a medieval infrastructure and on the top of that extremely substandard primary & secondary education and close to non existent higher education.

    India must act fast and swiftly to prevent it's demographic dividend from turning to demographic disaster.

    Any non BJP government coming to power would be a very weak government because of it's low numbers in parliament and would be under constant pressure from it's alliance partners,most of whom would be from North Indo-gangetic region.And judging from the statements the leadership of these parties are making we can very well analyze what would happen if you take their support.
     
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  3. JBH22

    JBH22 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Not a big deal.

    UPA III will continue on its own course more scams, more problems ahead and perhaps setting India on a irreversible self destruct course.

    Worst part would be that a country with so many bright persons led by a buddhu :)
     
  4. jalsa

    jalsa Regular Member

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    India will remain Secular and Liberal.:troll:
     
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  5. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Given the groundswell (let alone the Opinion Polls), it would be real surprising that the NDA shall lose.

    At best it will not make the target they are aiming for.

    Third Front shall attempt to cobble up some form of Govt and soon it will be General Election time again!
     
  6. Jagdish58

    Jagdish58 Regular Member

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    I guess Congress will rule high like the did from 1947 till the late 70's , no one can topple them :lol:
     
  7. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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  8. laughingbuddha

    laughingbuddha Regular Member

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    Even if UPA manages to cling to power, I doubt whether they will try to right the wrongs of UPA-II. Rather, I expect more arrogance. A gloomy picture.
     
  9. Eesh

    Eesh Regular Member

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    A few things are bopund to happen.

    1. A slew of cases against Modi and some other BJP leaders can be expected.

    2. A slew of laws, causing a viretual ban BJP, though legally it cannot be done. But functioning of BJP can be made nearly impossible.

    3. A rain of freebies. Immensely popular and populist schemes would be launched. For funding them you can expect an increase in direct taxes and other taxes. They would aim to disempower and pauperise the middle class for daring to raise their hand in favour of BJP.

    4. There would be a near unanimity among our "secular" parties to "amicable" settlement of Kashmir. Valley goes to Pak, a truncated Jammu region remains with India.

    5. Constitutional changes to grant permanent reservations to muslims.

    6. Speedy passage of discriminatory Communal Violence Bill. No matter it will mean a virtual islamic state with Hindus perpetually at the business end of a stick.
     
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  10. Eesh

    Eesh Regular Member

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    In the present mood of the nation, it would be a miracle if Cong can return to power. If, and only if, it gets 120+ seats, it can prop up a third [rate] front govt, only to pull it down. This third front might be quite a curious animal, with insider and outsider supporters. PMship might be farmed out various parties on a rotational basis. Like Mulayam becomes PM, with outside, tacit and passive support of Mayawati, who may be similarly paid in her turn. Of course, such a solution is unworkable. Maybe another election within 3 years would be there. By that time, the country and economy maybe ruined to such an extent that India would be a basket case and become a banana republic, at the mercy of hostile neighbours. In that list, include Manamar and Sri Lanka too.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2014
  11. happy

    happy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Most of all Modi fan boys will lose face for all the hype of Modi wave......I say, if BJP gets less than 200 seats on their own then everyone will know that there is no Modi wave at all...this even if NDA forms the govt.

    Opinion polls, twitter trends everything are hype. They can be inflated or deflated to favour anybody. This election is going to be all about the local candidate.
     
  12. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    The election about the failure of congress. How much has the congress failed will be the calculation and not how many seats NDA wins.
     
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  13. Eesh

    Eesh Regular Member

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    @happy
    In politics, face is not lost. After coming down to just 2 seats, BJP bounced back. If Cong remains at two digits, no face would be lost.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
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  14. happy

    happy Senior Member Senior Member

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    To add to that, there are no permanent enemies or friends...:)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  15. happy

    happy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Would the average present day voter be so much galvanised about the national leaders ??? To some extent, yes. To a larger extent...No. I think the present day voters will vote for the best local candidate.
     
  16. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    The people that have come out to vote (it is voluntary and a effort) would have come out to vote and more likely voice their opposition to congress rule in the past 5 years (not 10). It takes a certain type of effort and mentality to vote congress this time around especially with the atmosphere and dynamics at play. The thinking within the average voters will be "not congress but who else" and therefore would be mostly non-congress voters. How that deciphers is the beauty. One might imagine the AAP taking a lot of the congress votes since the typical congress voter is such but that does automatically mean congress gets less votes and how that plays out later - the APP being the new secular party not on seats won but in terms of % percentage of votes and increase and decrease compared to congress.

    Also the competence of congress leaders will be irrelevant and that displaces the best local candidate theory since the election is about non-congress candidates. Perhaps the best non-congress local candidate regionally and locally and nationally. There are very few seats where the congress candidate is the outright best.

    Also since many voters are not in the position and do not have the means to analyse most candidates to identify the best one they will do with other interests and positions in their mind. And one is change. A lot of votes will go with the candidate that will bring in change - a better phrase would be bring in something "new" and with the one that is most likely to win.

    From the overhead there appears to be one major national party the BJP in the running and many small regional parties. But most of the regional parties will be open to collaboration.

    There will be more a hoopla if congress wins much more seats compared to its expectations. But the calculation goes what would have gone to one congress candidate is split into two-three and even more and the candidate that previously got second most in the previous election would win.

    There is no third party to disturb the BJP votes like the AAP and regional and other local candidates are doing on the congress. All customary BJP voters will vote BJP but all customary congress voters will not vote congress in this election. The 2014 elections has a few similarities to 1992 presidential elections of USA the AAP and regional and other local candidates is a bit like Ross Perot while Bill Clinton is like the BJP (in some way - even though BJP might be more in line with Republican Party character).

    [​IMG]

    The question is not how many seats BJP wins. It is how many seats Congress wins. This is a watershed moment for Congress in its history.

    *****

    (added)

    Nominee Bill Clinton George H. W. Bush Ross Perot
    Party Democratic Republican Independent
    Home state Arkansas Texas Texas
    Running mate Al Gore Dan Quayle James Stockdale
    Electoral vote 370 168 0
    States carried 32 + DC 18 0
    Popular vote 44,909,806 39,104,550 19,743,821
    Percentage 43.0% 37.5% 18.9%

    If one takes the assumption that many of the Ross Perot voters would have voted for George Bush that election would have been closer but it was handed to Bill Clinton on the plate. I personally believe the same will occur in the 2014 Indian Election a lot of congress voters will be split and the BJP will come through with their customary base.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2014
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  17. Eesh

    Eesh Regular Member

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    If he is not galvanised NOW, he will not smart enough to galvanise later.
     
  18. CrYsIs

    CrYsIs Regular Member

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    The issue is not about modi,but about economy,jobs,infrastructure,education.

    The congress party has failed the people of India not just for the past 10 years but 50 years they ruled this country.

    Just look at the figures of HDI,Education,health and socio economic development..........one of the lowest in the planet.

    Do we really have an option other than the BJP ? what do you think ?
     
  19. rock127

    rock127 Maulana Rockullah Senior Member

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    .........and the Secular parties would touch even new heights of corruption and Scams never seen in mankind.

    India would usher into 31st century.

    इसलिए भाइयों और बहनो ....... Ab ki baar MODI Sarkar :D
     
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  20. happy

    happy Senior Member Senior Member

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    The older generation was reliant on word of mouth and news media (which was pretty limited) to frame their opinion (not considering the effect of Daaru and gifts). The present generation is more independent and with practically no dearth of information be it positive or negative. The present generation is as much concerned about good governance as they are about capable leaders. It all depends on how much they will turnout to vote.
     
  21. happy

    happy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Figures of development and options other than BJP aside, the present electoral war has become Modi Vs. the other parties....we may also include BJP into the list. So if BJP is not able to garner maximum vote share, Modi is all hype, technically.
     

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