What should India do on Syria?

[W.G.Ewald]

The Al-Assad family is quite large. I wonder if another member would take over if Bashar goes.

Al-Assad family - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Bassel al-Assad (1962–1994), was the original candidate for presidential succession, however, he died in a car accident.

Today I wonder if it was really an accident.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Fearful of a nuclear Iran? The real WMD nightmare is Syria | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Article Highlights

Syria has one of the largest and most sophisticated chemical weapons programs in the world and may also possess offensive biological weapons.
Longstanding terrorist groups and newly arrived Al Qaeda-affiliated fighters from Iraq have been active in Syria during that country's recent insurgency.
The United States and regional powers -- including Saudi Arabia and Iran -- need to start planning now to keep Syria's WMD out of terrorist hands if the Assad regime falls.

 

[panduranghari]

What can India do? France is arming and training the opposition readying to set up humanitarian corridors to make safe havens for FSA. They kill our soldiers and journalists, we will make them pay.

You can not do much. Face it. Already the US, UK and France is stretched in terms of its army deployment. Will China/Russia allow you to have your way? I think not. There is too much at stake. The question the Chinese and Russians must be asking privately is where does this end? If US,UK, France has its way it will replace the regimes in Russia and China too. The chinese and Russians know this and they will support the other party to what the other 3 support. Thats my 2 pence of opinion.

 

[pmaitra]

France and Turkey didn't quite do a good job of arming the rebels, apparently:

Ill-armed Syrian rebels wage unequal struggle

...

ARMING REBELS

The disparity in firepower has led to calls from some Gulf states and others to arm the rebels, as in Libya last year.

But Western powers have so far been wary of fuelling a conflict that could ignite broader strife in a region whose political struggles often take on an ethnic or sectarian color.

Syria, where an Alawite minority elite dominates a Sunni majority living alongside Christians, Druze, Kurds and Palestinian refugees, borders Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Israel, whose complex histories are threaded with communal bloodshed.

With his black Afghan-style tunic, baggy trousers and heavy beard, Abu Omar cuts the kind of figure who might set off alarm bells for Western governments calculating how much support to give Syrian insurgents trying to topple the secular Assad.

Peppering his speech with religious expressions, Abu Omar, from the Qusair area, says he fought U.S. forces in Afghanistan's Helmand province and then in Iraq before returning to battle Assad in his homeland.

Ill-armed Syrian rebels wage unequal struggle - chicagotribune.com

 

[W.G.Ewald]

With his black Afghan-style tunic, baggy trousers and heavy beard, Abu Omar cuts the kind of figure who might set off alarm bells for Western governments...

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Syria, where an Alawite minority elite dominates a Sunni majority living alongside Christians, Druze, Kurds and Palestinian refugees, borders Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Israel, whose complex histories are threaded with communal bloodshed.

A change of Syria's government would have a profound effect on Lebanon.

Rivals use Syria as target on Iran - Washington Times

Shiite crescent

A collapse of President Bashar Assad's rule likely would end Iran's cozy ties with Syria and potentially redraw the Middle East's pathways of influence.

Instead of the so-called Shiite crescent - from Iran through Iraq and onto Mr. Assad's regime led by Shiite offshoot Alawites - a new corridor of allies could be forged from Saudi Arabia, through Jordan and into Syria.

It also would choke off aid channels to Tehran's main anti-Israel faction, Hezbollah in Lebanon, which could be forced to work more closely with other, more moderate Lebanese political groups.

 

[amoy]

Is this source credible?

Assad and Russia FMEnlarge ImageFrench troops arrested in Syria as Assad hails Putin victory | Al Bawaba

The Syrian army arrested 13 French soldiers in the city of Homs, a scene of violent clashes between the armed opposition and government troops, the British newspaper Daily Star reported on Monday, quoting informed sources.

The spokesman of the French diplomacy Bernard Valero said that the information was baseless and that sending soldiers into Syria was never considered.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Is this source credible?

Assad and Russia FMEnlarge ImageFrench troops arrested in Syria as Assad hails Putin victory | Al Bawaba

The "French soldiers" could be mercenaries, I guess.

 

[ejazr]

Manmohan Singh speaks out on the Syrian massacre calling for a ceasefire. This is significant coming after the fact that Iranian FM had met MMS the same day

PM Manmohan Singh calls for immediate ceasefire in Syria - The Times of India

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Friday called for immediate ceasefire in Syria, saying that India was fully behind the six-point plan proposed by UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan to end the ongoing conflict in the West Asian nation. Singh made the remark in a meeting with Iran foreign minister Ali Akbar Salehi, who met him on Friday morning to invite him for the upcoming NAM summit in Tehran.

Government sources said that Singh accepted the invitation from Salehi, but did not commit to visiting Iran later this year to attend the summit. "No decision has been taken yet on whether he will go," said a source, speaking on the PM's behalf. This was even as Singh spoke about the importance of NAM in dealing with regional and global issues. Salehi told the PM that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would be happy to receive him in Tehran.

India on Friday voted in favour of a US-backed resolution at UN Human Rights Council condemning the massacre at El-Houla, in which more than 100 people were killed, and asking for independent and transparent probe into it.

Singh has attended both the NAM summits held earlier during his tenure as the PM — Havana in 2006 and Sharm-el-Sheikh in 2009. Replying to a query from TOI earlier, while he was returning from Myanmar, Singh had said that he would decide after receiving the invite from Salehi.

Singh and Salehi, however, had an extended discussion on Syria with which Iran enjoys more than considerable influence. Salehi is said to have agreed with Singh that ceasefire and full implementation of the plan, including arriving at a peaceful settlement through a political dialogue, was important. The US has accused Iran of playing a "malignant" role in Syria, saying that it continues to encourage Bashar al-Assad when it was absolutely essential for him to step down to end the conflict. Singh told Salehi that as a UNSC member, India will work towards peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Earlier this week, Annan had expressed dissatisfaction with the manner in which his plan was being implemented saying that things were at a "tipping point". He said bold steps were required to end violence.

The foreign ministry had only a few days ago issued a travel advisory asking Indian nationals to avoid all non-essential travel to Syria after two Indians were reported to have died in violence at the Syria-Iraq border.

 

[The Messiah]

Go against wahabis...in this case it means support assad.

 

[amoy]

The 4th Media » VIDEO: Both parties guilty in Houla massacre – Lavrov

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said some political players are undermining the UN-brokered ceasefire in Syria. He also said both opposition groups and regime troops "had a hand" in the Houla massacre.

"It is clear that both sides had a hand in the Houla incident that left civilians dead, including women and children," he said following bilateral talks with his English counterpart William Hague.

He went on to state that artillery and tank shells were found in Houla and that many of the bodies showed evidence of a violent death, including some that had been shot in the head at close-range.

He said that the area was controlled by militants but there was a strong presence of government troops there.

William Hague accepted that while the Assad regime bears the brunt of the blame for violence in the country, it is not wholly responsible. Previously he had stated there were "credible and horrific reports that a large number of civilians have been massacred at the hands of Syrian forces in the town of Houla."

During the press conference with UK minister William Hague, Lavrov stated that talk of the removal of Assad's regime threatens the implementation of the UN peace plan. He expressed "deep concern" that the UN-Arab League initiative "is being fulfilled unsatisfactorily," but emphasized regime change was not the answer.

"When some countries, particularly those closest to Syria suggest the only solution to the conflict is regime change, it makes me doubt their commitment to the ceasefire," said Lavrov.

William Hague said if the UN peace plan is not upheld, the only alternative for Syria will be civil war.

He went on to say that pressure should be put on the regime and the Syrian opposition to comply with Kofi Annan's six-point peace plan.

"We are not concerned with who is in power in Syria, our current aim is to bring an end to the violence and loss of life"¦ everything else is secondary," stressed Lavrov.

William Hague said that Russia and the UK would ratchet up their efforts to ensure Assad complies with the peace plan.

"The Annan plan is the best hope for Syria, at the moment the only hope for Syria, to try and break the cycle of violence," said Hague.

However, in order for negotiations to progress Hague stated "there needs to be a fundamental change in the approach of the Assad regime if Syria is to be saved from ever greater chaos and disorder."

The UN Security Council issued a statement on Sunday condemning the massacre in the Damascus suburb of Houla, but did not lay the blame the feet of the regime or the opposition. The emergency meeting was called by Russia.

The Syrian government has categorically denied that government troops were involved in the Houla massacre and has laid the blame at the feet of terrorist groups operating in the area.

Anti-government uprisings have raged in Syria for almost 14 months, becoming increasingly bloody and militarized.

The UN estimates that the conflict has claimed over 9,000 lives. The organization currently has over 100 monitors stationed in Syria.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

I did not vote, not being Indian, but DFI polls need many more to participate for them to have much meaning.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

 

[Yusuf]

India should continue to do what it has been doing, that is nothing at all apart from occasional sound bytes to please all. We did the same in Libya as well. It is a good ploy. When in doubt, shut up, watch and do nothing. And no it's not a sign of weakness or indecisiveness but playing smart.

 

[LalTopi]

I used to be indecisive, but now I am not too sure

 

[tramp]

The prologue to war
Is America planning to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the war which eliminated Saddam Hussein and destroyed Iraq with an intervention in Syria?

Jaundiced Arab eyes are asking a cynical question: if Lady Camilla and Prince Charles drop by to see war refugee Syrian children at a camp in Jordan, as they did on 13 March, can Nato troops be far behind? Observers are adding 2 plus 2, and perhaps getting 5. But they note that when Republican Senator John McCain puts on his best stentorian manner and claims Bashar Assad is committing genocide against his own people, something is beginning to cook in Washington . Across the Atlantic, Britain and France have urged the European Union to lift a ban on weapons for Syrian rebels.

Little flakes point towards a storm. This clamour, half official and half unofficial, seeks to suggest that only Nato can rescue a crucial nation on the geostrategic map from the despotic and dynastic rule of the Assad family. So far, the war in Syria has been an uneven contest between a Russian-backed authoritarian regime and disparate rebel groups.

International intervention means nothing without American involvement. Britain and France have neither the stomach nor the wherewithal for unilateral action.

Barack Obama is not a pacifist, as evidence from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen proves. But he is too smart to repeat the foolishness of George Bush the Younger. He will not use lies as justification for war. He has laid down a "red line" : the use of chemical weapons, which the Assad regime possesses. A flutter went up this week when both government and rebels accused each other of using chemical weapons. Washington reacted calmly, ordering its intelligence analysts to check the allegations. At the moment of writing this is still in progress. If Obama does go to the United Nations it will be with solid evidence, not hearsay manufactured in the neocon imagination, as Bush did.

Bush made unforgiveable errors. His target was Saddam Hussein, and he went to war against the whole of Iraq. Obama will choose his enemy more carefully. He will more probably concentrate his military attention on the elite that controls Damascus , and avoid battle to the extent he can with the Syrian army. This would mean maximum use of missiles and warplanes, and minimal use of infantry . The official Assad palace in Damascus is atop a high hill and very vulnerable to air assault, but the Assads understand that and have moved out. But dominant air cover will be invaluable to rebels who have already reached the edge of Damascus.

Obama is unlikely to risk American boots on the battlefield. The heavy lifting on the field would probably be left to Turkish troops; Turkey is a member of Nato, and has provided refuge and sanctuary to both civilians and fighters. It has an important national interest in the outcome of this conflict. Nor can Assad hope for popular support in his own country. His Shia sect, the Alawites, who form only 10 per cent of the population, have alienated the Sunnis. Foreign intervention will get just that touch of local support that makes its efforts credible.

The tough part may not be the big war in the beginning, but the small wars of succession that will plague Syria in the aftermath. The rebels do not ride under a single flag. Their motivation varies. Some of them are Islamists; others dream of becoming regional warlords. They could turn Syria into another Lebanon. Afghanistan may be an extreme case, but it is always worth noting that three decades after the Soviet troops were driven out the wars of succession are not over. It is easier to end a war between nations than calm the consequences of an insurrection.

Whatever the eventual price, it is obvious that the present order in Damascus is no longer sustainable . When the conflict was still in its incipient stage, Turkey advised Assad to accept a compromise and lead the change rather than defy it and invite bloodshed. Bashar Assad had seen his father Hafez contain and defeat one challenge after another, and thought he could do so as well. But Hafez Assad lived in an age of dictators and comparatively settled internal and external relations. Bashar Assad rules at a time of turbulence on the Arab street and massive flux in the neighbourhood. He could have been an exemplar of transition. He chose a worse fate. Russia, and China to a lesser degree, will continue to back Assad, if for no other reason than to rebuff America, but not at the cost of their self-interest . Iran is a far more reliable ally, but its ability to protect Assad against a carefully constructed, UN-authorised American-Turkish operation must be in question.

This is a war whose opening stages have become a prolonged prologue. Every war is unpredictable, and no one can say how it will end. But once they start, the middle and end games will be quicker.

The prologue to war by The Siege Within : MJ Akbar's blog-The Times Of India

 

[tramp]

I think the picture is emerging fast .... Obama visit to Israel, Kerry visit to Iraq, Israeli apology to Turkey for Gaza flotilla deaths, EU lifting arms embargo to rebels.. there are enough straws in the wind to help us read which way its blowing!!
In right time too for the US with Afghanistan almost done!!

 

[pmaitra]

I think the picture is emerging fast .... Obama visit to Israel, Kerry visit to Iraq, Israeli apology to Turkey for Gaza flotilla deaths, EU lifting arms embargo to rebels.. there are enough straws in the wind to help us read which way its blowing!!
In right time too for the US with Afghanistan almost done!!

I like your analysis. Well put. I am just wondering, given the fact that the rebels are under the overwhelming influence of Wahhabi fighters and Wahhabi money, this plan could backfire with the rebels launching attacks against Israel itself. All these plans hatched by the West almost always backfire. As they say, dig a hole for your rival, and you might end up in it.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

I think the picture is emerging fast .... Obama visit to Israel, Kerry visit to Iraq, Israeli apology to Turkey for Gaza flotilla deaths, EU lifting arms embargo to rebels.. there are enough straws in the wind to help us read which way its blowing!!
In right time too for the US with Afghanistan almost done!!

Arms have been going from Libya to Syria & FSA, facilitated by US, for some time.

Libya Supplies Free Syrian Army With Weapons

The Times: Shipload of Libyan Arms Head to Al Qaeda/FSA in Syria | Friends of Syria