What if we lose Pakistan to China

Discussion in 'China' started by LETHALFORCE, Aug 8, 2011.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    What if we lose Pakistan to China - GlobalPost - Salon.com

    NEW DELHI, India -- With a U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan on the horizon, India has been caught between cheering Washington's moves to rein in Pakistan's military and bewailing the possible fallout if America "loses" Pakistan to China.

    Global Post Unlike the United States, which can take its guns and go home, India will have to deal with the fallout of the war in Afghanistan and Pakistani radicalism for the next decade.

    A resurgent Taliban and the return of a radical Islamic regime in Kabul could create a new safe haven for anti-Indian terrorist groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba -- the Pakistan-based terrorist organization responsible for the November 2008 attacks on Mumbai.

    Some analysts fear that even as Islamabad works to bring the Taliban on board for a peace deal in Afghanistan, the Taliban leadership may help broker a settlement between Pakistan and various domestic terrorist groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban, uniting the various jihadi organizations to focus on India, according to Indiana University professor Sumit Ganguly.

    Realistically, the United States won't cut and run in 2014, but it will reduce its presence and convert its counterinsurgency operations into "counterterrorism plus," says Christine Fair, a professor at Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies.

    The recent move to freeze $800 billion in military aid to Pakistan is probably as much a signal to Congress that the State Department knows what it's doing than an indicator of any real plans to change horses midstream.

    But let's play what if.

    Despite concerns about China's rising influence in the region, losing Pakistan -- an unlikely, if not impossibly bold maneuver -- could be the most profitable move Washington has made in the War on Terror since Sept. 11. And India could benefit even more than the United States.

    The conventional wisdom in New Delhi is that China uses Pakistan as a tool to thwart India's rise as a regional power, while Beijing sees the growing strategic partnership between India and the United States as part of a broader effort to prevent China from developing interests any further afield.

    But even though there is more than a little truth in those perceptions, the United States may have an opportunity to create a paradigm shift in the politics of the region with a change in the way it views Pakistan -- paradoxically gaining influence by ceding power.

    For 50 years, America has endeavored to create a strong, democratic ally in Pakistan by doling out billions of dollars in economic and military aid, only to watch with horror as it emerged as one of the most virulently anti-American countries in the world and a covert sponsor of terror, Lawrence Wright argued convincingly in a recent issue of the New Yorker.

    Because aid flows through the military establishment and the Inter-services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), it seems, American cash has empowered a shadowy regime of spooks and soldiers at the expense of the legitimate civilian government. But that's not the only compelling case for turning off the tap now, as Islamabad attempts to extort a dominant role for Pakistan in post-war Afghanistan.

    Washington could save billions of dollars a year and stick Beijing with the bill at a single stroke, even as it alleviates Chinese fears of containment or encirclement by granting it equal responsibility for guaranteeing security in its own backyard.

    More importantly, granting China that responsibility would likely compel Beijing to take a leadership role in managing and reforming Pakistan, rather than stirring up trouble with the confidence that the U.S. is riding herd. It would also address a simple reality: China already exerts more influence over Pakistan than the United States.

    "I don't think the Americans have done enough to reach out to China," said Fair. "I don't think they've done enough to reach out to Saudi Arabia. They have a lot more influence than we do."

    Moreover, paranoid fears aside, Beijing has repeatedly shown it has no interest in pushing Pakistan over the brink. In 1999, the Chinese thwarted Gen. Pervez Musharraf by refusing to support him in the Kargil War against India, for instance. Likewise, it was Beijing (not Washington) that induced the Pakistani government to send troops in to root out Islamic militants barricaded in the Lal Masjid in 2007.

    And, most recently, when Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani sought a Chinese pledge of support following Washington's decision to freeze $800 billion in military aid, Beijing maintained a studied silence.

    "It is Pakistan that wants China more than China wants Pakistan," said Suba Chandran, director of the New Delhi-based Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies.

    Neither the United States nor India can match China when it comes to playing hardball with Pakistan's military establishment. But both strategic partners could do a great deal more to promote Pakistan's civilian institutions if they focused on trade, according to Shuja Nawaz, director of the South Asia Center of the Atlantic Council.

    For instance, by expanding so-called "reconstruction opportunity zones" -- where manufacturers enjoy preferential tariffs for exports to the United States -- America could reduce the need for humanitarian aid at the same time it strengthens its economic ties with civilian Pakistanis. Similarly, removing various roadblocks could boost trade between India and Pakistan from today's $2 billion to $42 billion a year -- creating a strong, new economic impetus for peace that might well spill over into Afghanistan.

    "The pressure will grow on the military establishments to tone down their rhetoric and stop talking to each other as adversaries as the two countries economies are increasingly going to be linked," Nawaz said.

    Meanwhile, said Chandran, a comparable increase in Sino-Indian trade promises to make China and India economic partners in the upcoming "Asian Century."

    If, that is, China and India can resolve a niggling border dispute and Washington can convince Beijing that the Indo-U.S. strategic partnership is not part of a secret plan to keep China down.
     
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  3. Sikh_warrior

    Sikh_warrior Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Pakistan can never have peace with india through trade or business. they are prepared for a 1000 year war with india over J&K!

    so lets forget the trade part and candle lighting at wagah and singing dosti songs.

    now coming to china, they are good at playing games with pak, much better than india and yanks do it pak!

    the Chinese wud not like to have a failing/falling pakistan into their kitty once yanks give up on pak.

    pak has become a liability for its masters (yanks, ksa & china) and the region (iran, afghanistan & india), so no one wants to clean the sh1t inside pakistan. because the sh1t never stops, they clean it, its there the next day!

    so just give up on pak, the chinese will wash their hands off!

    right now pak is surviving on hand outs ($$$) by yanks and ksa, china doesnt belive in giving CASH to pak, they give in kindness or in material form. because china knows that the hard cash from yanks n ksa is keeping pak alive, so no need for china to give hard cash to pak.....just keep giving them military hardware and other stuff to keep india busy!

    so once yanks give up on the hard cash to pak, the chinese will not waste their hard cash on pak.

    but none of the two (yanks and china) are willing to start the ball rolling.....

    trust me chinese NEVER give cash to pak....cause cash is coming from ksa n yanks!
     
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  4. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    What if we lose Pakistan to China????????

    Bhard me jaye pak-stan............hame kya
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 9, 2011
  5. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    If we lose then its good because chinese will rape them dry.

    And they aren't ours to lose anyways...pakii army and bureaucrats run the country like its there own backyard and only stay in power by making India a threat by continuously poking at us every now and then to keep the pressure simmering.
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2011
  6. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    China will colonize Pakistan in a flash. Maybe Pakistanis deserve a taste of totalitarianism. Right now Pakistan just has so-called democracy-of-convenience that is overruled by whatever twisted definition of "law of necessity" is prevalent.
     
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  7. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

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    The US will not easily leave Afghanistan. Pentagon will fight any attempt from the politicians to completely leave Afghanistan as it wants a strategic foothold right in the doorstep of Pakistan and Iran and in the backyard of China. And in policy battles such as these Pentagon almost always win as the politicians in the end would listen to the former on security matters.

    If Pakistan decides to leave US orbit we can be assured that it will be severely punished. The Saudi's for one are itching to hack the Pakis for ungratefulness.
     
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  8. asianobserve

    asianobserve Elite Member Elite Member

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    It is India that is disappointing in the Afghanistan saga. More than the US INdia has more to gain from securing Afghanistan. But what is India doing? It's trying to conveniently play safe and let the Americans do the dirty work. In fact sometimes India would even still backtalk the US on other strategic matters like in Libya. I think the Indian owes it to the Americans to show some more convincing public support as what allies (at least beneficiaries) would do under the circumstances.

    India has more in common with modern democracies than Iran and Venezuela. It should assume its rightful place in the former league.
     
  9. Sikh_warrior

    Sikh_warrior Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    nobody wants to marry a mistress/whore....

    ....thats what pakistan is today....

    .
     
  10. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    That sounds better :)
     
  11. Arunpillai

    Arunpillai Regular Member

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    Pakistan is a failed state. The prospects of pakistan completely falling into china's hands is indeed worrysome.. China can easily use pakistan to attack us or meddle in our country.. Chinese dont care about pakistanis.. All they care about is to contain india.
     

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