What if the American decline never happens?

Razor

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Why did the US go ahead with unpegging of the Dollar from the Gold Standard and switch to oil? The reasons are, or to be precise, the reasons given by Nixon are there in my previous post. More on this at the end.

Pegging of the dollar to oil was done so as to preserve its demand. If oil were available for other currencies, the US dollar wouldn't be so much sought after.

Now, let me go back to the promises Nixon made as to why he left the Gold Standard. He gave certain reasons for doing what he did. Are those the real reasons? That is for you to speculate. o_O
A bargain to increase the demand of the dollar, in the international arena.

Let me guess.......
USSSSSSSSSSRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR.
 

Razor

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My own analogy of coldwar....
Some body building competition happened. Both guys flexed muscles.
Uncle used steroids for quick win. He won that event. Now licking the side effects.
:lol: :lol:

Good one.

.................................................
 

FactsPlease

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While I like your post, what I learned from school is: money represent the commitment that you can count on to exchange (get) some resource or service. In that definition, the total money supply country can "create" (print) supposed to equal to the aggregate that you & everyone's confidence on that government, and the extent it will use its aggregate power, to "exercise" that commitment (in which sense, QE indeed is the last straw of FED to use). Must say US government, no matter how blamed and criticized, still possess a huge power - from technology advancement, finance control (global banking system), soft power, to natural resources. In the mean time, you also have to consider the exchange rate and its effect on your (& global) trading. I'm NOT saying it won't have such as 2008 disaster, which it did. I'm just saying that petro-dollar really the main force to push US$ down? Isn't that (commitment & confidence) why China is betting on its foreign reserve on it - till today still 80% more? People on this thread did mention it's a power tool for China government, which I hold strong doubt - first China still need something to "preserve" the value of their economic result and second China had NEVER try to threat using it, not even a single intention in critical occasion...


Good question.

This takes us back to the confiscation of gold in the US, not by virtue of a Congressional Act, but by virtue of an Executive Order.
What followed was gold was hoarded by the US government.

Now, Dollars printed against this gold was supposed to keep the Dollar stable. So far, so good.

Now, we have a finite amount of gold, and thereby, a finite number of US Dollars.* This means, the economy cannot grow (false assumption, because, the number of Dollars in circulation does not correspond to the economy, just as much a higher GDP does not mean a larger economy).

In any event, this one article entitled "Nixon's Colossal Monetary Error: The Verdict 40 Years Later," gives a good view.

Excerpt (promises):

Excerpt (aftermath):

Excerpt (explains relativity):


This article was published in Forbes. This is very surprising.

_____________

*- One way to increase wealth while staying within the Gold Standard would be to increase production, export that in exchange for gold, and thus allow for printing of more dollars. In any event, inflation should be linked to essential commodities, such as food, energy, etc., and not just precious metals.
 
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Params7

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Whoever is looking towards an American decline should delay their expectations indefinitely :biggrin2: Its not going to happen under Trump.
 

no smoking

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Whoever is looking towards an American decline should delay their expectations indefinitely :biggrin2: Its not going to happen under Trump.
The fact that Trump (not Clinton) is living in the white house tells you that American decline is happening. May not be the way believed by most people, but she is declining RELATIVELY. The core of Trump policy is: we (Americans) can't afford our empire alone anymore, so those who benefit from our empire must pay it from now on, otherwise we will leave you to deal with Russian, Chinese, etc alone.
 

asianobserve

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The fact that Trump (not Clinton) is living in the white house tells you that American decline is happening. May not be the way believed by most people, but she is declining RELATIVELY. The core of Trump policy is: we (Americans) can't afford our empire alone anymore, so those who benefit from our empire must pay it from now on, otherwise we will leave you to deal with Russian, Chinese, etc alone.
Trump is a bumbling idi0t who wittingly or unwittingly due to his megalomania and the similar idi0cy of a lot of Americans has allowed Russia to use him as their most potent virus into the American system. Now America is really in decline (under Trump). Can the Americans reverse course? I still have faith in their collective ability to do the right thing that matters (after a lot of wrongs). But they will have to pull themselves from a very deep sh1thole dug up by Trump and the American Trumptards.
 

Rahul Prakash

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Trump is a bumbling idi0t who wittingly or unwittingly due to his megalomania and the similar idi0cy of a lot of Americans has allowed Russia to use him as their most potent virus into the American system. Now America is really in decline (under Trump). Can the Americans reverse course? I still have faith in their collective ability to do the right thing that matters (after a lot of wrongs). But they will have to pull themselves from a very deep sh1thole dug up by Trump and the American Trumptards.
Americans don't owe anything to anybody.

The whole point of empire is to benefit your own country and your own people.it is business and must be run for profit.

Americans have realised that we have utilized them more than they have us and want to pull out in those deals as they should.
 

no smoking

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Trump is a bumbling idi0t who wittingly or unwittingly due to his megalomania and the similar idi0cy of a lot of Americans has allowed Russia to use him as their most potent virus into the American system. Now America is really in decline (under Trump). Can the Americans reverse course? I still have faith in their collective ability to do the right thing that matters (after a lot of wrongs). But they will have to pull themselves from a very deep sh1thole dug up by Trump and the American Trumptards.
It has nothing to do with American collective ability to the right thing or wrong thing. It is happening simply because American has been overstretching their capabilities.
 

prohumanity

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American decline theory is overblown out of proportion as some part of media want to sensationalize this type of fake news to gain viewership and keep people curious.
As of today, USA is a very solid and strong nation...with 25 trillion dollar economy (25% of entire world's economy)
Military is second to none in the world. US foreign policy is changing and making smarter moves such as making alliance with rising nations like India. The quad nations (USA-Japan-India -Australia ) along with ASEAN 10 can be a formidable trade block with huge upward economic momentum in the region. Russia will slowly come closer too.
Leader of India, Modi is visionary and very very patriotic and if he is comfortable with alliance with USA, I think its certainly the right move.

Bottomline...America will not decline at least in our lifetime as this nation knows how to identify problems and make corrections . (Please don't believe fake news media.)

I have been hearing and reading books about decline of America for last 20 years..did it happen ? NO.
These type of books sold very well and authors made money because it has a shock value to readers.
China's decline is more likely in near term, IMO.
 
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Tactical Frog

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Whoever is looking towards an American decline should delay their expectations indefinitely :biggrin2: Its not going to happen under Trump.
Trump’s days in White House are numbered. Decline may start sooner than you expect if Trump is the one supposed to prevent it. Check Twitter.

#BREAKING Ex-Trump aide Flynn pleads guilty to lying about Russia links
#UPDATE "Very senior" Trump transition official directed Flynn's Russia contacts, according to plea deal
 

asianobserve

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Oil World Turns Upside Down as U.S. Sells Oil in Middle East

The United Arab Emirates, a model Persian Gulf petro-state where endless billions from crude exports feed a giant sovereign wealth fund, isn’t the most obvious customer for Texan oil.

Yet, in a trade that illustrates how the rise of the American shale industry is upending energy markets across the globe, the U.A.E. bought oil directly from the U.S. in December, according to data from the federal government. A tanker sailed from Houston and arrived in the Persian Gulf last month.




https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-middle-east-in-latest-sign-of-shale-s-spread
 

Okabe Rintarou

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No comments on this thread since Trump exited. LOL. Looks like its a forgone conclusion for folks on this forum.

目前,越来越多的证据表明,美国实际上正沿着“加速主义”的东风继续走下去。
 

KurtisBrian

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Why would the US decline? If nations do not like the USA the USA can use China as it's proxy. US gives China USD for goods and then China in turn either gives those USD or RMB to the "angry" nation for resources. China makes stuff using resources and then gives the stuff to the USA for more USD.
bait and switch.
 

mattster

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I think people are confusing the divisions within a democratic society and national decline.

The US with its 2 -party system has become more like other messy multi-party democratic states like India where there is always some form of scorched-earth politics. This has surprised many people. The difference with other countries is that the US still has a very strong central government. The economy is left to the private sector to grow without interference, unlike China where all kinds of failing industries are propped up by the state.

The US was once the manufacturing engine of the world after WW2 but eventually it gave way to Japan.
I remember in the eighties about all the stories about how Japan will eat the US lunch and overtake the US economy.

China has dominated low-end manufacturing and built its trillion dollar economy of the back of workers slaving 12 to 14 hours a day to create china's export driven economy. The next generation of the Chinese economy has to compete on ideas, innovation and high-end products. There is no guarantee that China will win that battle. Plus, the next generation of Chinese are not going to work 14 hours a day.

China's closed education system is not going to create the type of creative people that are game-changers.
Creativity is not just in Science and Technology.....its also in the arts, music, books, universities, popular culture. China's "CCP stage managed Opera" like system of governance has a limited shelf life.

Chinese can copy and out work you, and that works well until you transition to a high end economy.
So if the US is in decline - then the question is who is going to replace the US ?
All advanced economies that are running full bore will slow down eventually, but overtaking them is not that easy.
 

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