What if Britain left the EU?

Discussion in 'Europe and Russia' started by sorcerer, Nov 5, 2014.

  1. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    Budget rows, referendum pledges, Ukip on the rise … is Britain heading for an EU exit? It would certainly be a messy divorce after 44 years. But what would it mean for our politics, prosperity and cultural life?

    In a rare uncalculating moment, Boris Johnson wrote last year that, if Britain finally ended its “sterile debate” over Europe by leaving the EU, it would quickly discover “that most of our problems are not caused by Brussels, but by chronic British short-termism, inadequate management, sloth, low skills and a culture of easy gratification and under-investment”.

    How true, but that discovery would not be the end of the matter if David Cameron’s promised in/out referendum in 2017 resulted in a Brexit majority. The euphoria that half the population of Scotland came close to feeling in their own independence referendum last September would rapidly dissipate as familiar problems resurfaced and new ones popped up.

    The country would be divided – literally so if Scotland took its cue to do a Scexit and stay in the EU, generating tensions in Northern Ireland, though probably not in Wales. The defeated minority would be frightened and sullen, assorted dreamers and zealots would rush to start creating their vision of a restored Merrie England. Or of an offshore free enterprise hub, the Hong Kong of the Atlantic, as much a fantasy as the socialist and green republic that would be sought by others.

    Everyone would claim copyright on Blake’s Jerusalem and political parties would scramble to adjust to the new realities. After 44 years of half-hearted membership, there would be no going back, but a lot of time-consuming unbundling would need urgent attention, with new treaties negotiated to project essential national interests, much as the famously independent Swiss and Norwegians spend time negotiating in Brussels.

    If the Scottish parallel is any guide, Ukip would enjoy an SNP-style surge of popularity, claiming the credit for forcing the Tories – would Cameron still be leader, or would Mayor Johnson move in for the kill? – to make good their pledges. Whether they recommended yes or no in 2017, the Tories would be seen to have messed things up: neither Cameron nor George Osborne actually want to leave.

    It is hard to see such a vote doing Labour, the pro-EU party since its mid-80s U-turn, much good. Ukip’s new recruits are becoming more sophisticated, but Nigel (“Mine’s a pint”) Farage is not likely to be up to the task: the technocrats in Whitehall and perhaps the City would have to sort out the messy, bitter divorce as best they could.

    None of this would be happening in a vacuum. For 400 years, Europe dominated world affairs, but that phase is over. China will soon be as uninterested as it was when European merchants tried to sell it things it didn’t want in the 16th century. The US, busy with China, will turn away from its enfeebled allies, even Britain, no longer its door to Europe. Only Russia will retain an urgent geopolitical interest and, on current trends, it will not be benign.

    In time, Britain and its component nations will settle down, probably to a lower standard of living, at least for a while. It depends whether London’s huge financial services sector decides to stay put or decamp to Frankfurt, Dublin or Zurich. That depends on how unstable Brexit Britain’s politics become – and what its tax regime is. Insular and xenophobic, or outward-looking and confident? Fingers will be tightly crossed.

    And how will Europe regard “Perfidious Albion’s” latest double-cross, its retreat from cooperation and integration to the offshore island? With disappointment and anger, most likely. British critics of the way the EU runs – its courts, its imperfect single market and bureaucracy, its recession-dogged single currency – make some excellent points as well as some self-deluded ones. Will the Brussels elite say, “Gosh, you’re right” after a Brexit vote? Or pull up their own drawbridge and drive hard economic bargains with the quitters in London? The latter option is surely more likely.

    Whatever they say, a British departure will be deeply damaging to the EU’s reputation and self-esteem, unbalancing the north/south, left/right, statist/free enterprise scales. “Don’t leave us alone with the French,” some German politicians whisper as Paris again ducks structural economic reform so long as its bond market commands enough confidence to borrow more.

    The EU was constructed, mainly by Frenchmen, to hide German strength and French weakness. It is not hard to imagine the project starting to break up under the pressures generated by a British departure… nationalist and Eurosceptic parties of both left and right – even ultra-respectable Germany has them now – will assert more selfish short-term interest.

    Already Germany’s austere Bundesbank is preventing Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, doing more to ease deflationary pressures and unemployment in ways the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve have been free to do. Huge sacrifices have been made to keep the EU project going – for reasons that constantly need remembering, even in the centenary year of 1914 – but they have been sustained by hope and optimism for a better future.

    If a British departure punctures that fragile belief, Europe could slide back to where it was at the height of its imperial glory: divided, feuding, dominated by a single power, Germany, in breach of four centuries of British foreign policy, but threatened by another – Russia (or anyone else who comes along). Only this time there will be no imperial glory, not much money and less defence. Boris Johnson’s “sterile debate” would be over, but the problems he identified would remain. MW
    Economics: Voters may go with their gut – should Britain control its own destiny or be part of a bigger family?

    It’s the spring of 2017 and preparations for Britain’s in-out European Union referendum are in full swing. The side campaigning for exit says that Britain will not just survive but thrive once it is unshackled from Brussels. The side campaigning to stay part of the EU says the country will be poorer and jobs will be lost.

    When the big day comes, the recent poor performance of the eurozone economies proves crucial. Voters are unimpressed by the argument that it is in Britain’s interests to remain part of an economic bloc that has suffered a decade of stagnation and double-digit joblessness, and vote to leave.

    What happens next is already a matter of great contention. The CBI says

    It appears your Web browser is not configured to display PDF files. No worries, just click here to download the PDF file.

     
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  3. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    According to a study by the South Bank University, more than three million jobs in the UK are reliant upon Britain being in the EU.

    There will be a great squeeze because Britain would be staring at a single market – the market in Britain and losing a market of 500 million people.

    If Britain votes to leave the EU in a referendum Cameron hopes to hold in 2017, Britain's economy would suffer as banks relocate to Europe and it has to pay for access to the EU single market. There would be no return.

    Immigration from Asia and Africa, legal and illegal, will continue since the British have got used to having them to the blue collar jobs for them.

    The job loss will be at the white collar and top executive level which are manned by the white folks of Britain.

    Good luck to Britain.
     
  4. Android

    Android Regular Member

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    Breakup of UK from EU for sure would cause anger as it would be 3rd largest economy of europe exiting the Union.
    This is an important point,business would no longer remain so friendly as it is now. And as result would lead job loss as well as some business would like to move into a economy with 600mill people than with just 60million. As the article & @Ray post says...
    In the short term it would weaken UK's economy,though thing could be brought in line in the later years.
     
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  5. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    British arrogance of being a superior nation and a superior race that cannot sub shoulders with Europe will only make it worse than when it lost the Empire!

    Unless the British realise that they are now just one of the unwashed millions around the world, they are digging their own graves.
     
  6. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Answer is no, UK can't and will not and should not
     
  7. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    What is the opinion of Citizen Khan?
     
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  8. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Britain doesn't need to be in Europe to strike important trade deals

    Excerpt:
    Commentary: This makes sense, and I tend to agree that Britain has the right to guard it independence from Brussels, and not only Brussels, but the US as well.
     
  9. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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  10. HMS Astute

    HMS Astute Regular Member

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    British people (the voters and feeders of the politicians) literally do care more about how many newly created jobs are being taken by EU/Non-EU immigrants/emigrants. Eastern Europeans. Many people are very concerned about overcrowded hospitals, schools and shortage of housing. How would you feel if you worked your ass off the entire year and paid a huge amount of tax from your annual salary to support the asylum seekers for their food, clothes and accommodations? UK can't deport them as it violates the EU's human rights and foreign policy. I spoke to a girl from Lithuania when i met her at the local vet a while ago, first i thought she was just a regular oversea student or something, and we then continued the conversation and found out that she came to the UK to get a free treatment for her kidney and other problems when she get the treatment in her country tooo. Well, although i felt sorry for her poor health, i was quite put off by the fact that she flew over 1000 miles just to seek the benefit and get free services whilst the hospitals are already crowded with people already here, and of course she is entitled to do so and the system allows her to do such thing according to EU. Only God knows how much (£100,000?) taxpayers' hard earned money is used for people like this, and only Jesus knows how many people are doing the similar things. One of the most fantastic things about being in the EU, innit!

    UK is the 3rd largest contributor to EU budget, we pay in more than we take out. UK is the 2nd largest economy in EU with massive influence, world's biggest financial centre and largest amount of HQs and 2000 Forbes companies. If the UK left the Evil Union, Merkel has to find other countries to cover the ongoing costs, good luck with the declining France, Italy and crisis in many countries there.

    London was the premiere and vital global financial centre since before EU was existed. We'd rather pay the access fee and set our own rules, border, and immigration policy.


    Nope. The UK will be able to deport them based on the rules made in Westminster, but not in Brussells. Now even the illegal foreign criminals are untouchable...


    People in the country do not mind good immigrants who come to the UK peacefully and contribute to the economy and fit in with society. Many eastern European immigrants can't and don't even speak English for example and this gives a negative impact on the society. Skilled, educated immigrants with acceptable level of English are warmly welcome in UK, for eg doctors, nurses, engineers, young professionals and graduates from India, China etc. People don't have issues with them as long as they pay tax and do legal jobs and speak English when necessary.

    According to a recent report, the immigrants from outside the EU would cost the UK $200 billion over the coming yearsss. You can't even have your own rules for your own country and do your own thing, well that is an another lovely thing about being in the EU innit. This evil union would be a great club to be in if it was just about common market, free trade and free movement within the countries with similar culture, economy, gdp per capita, living standard and income etc. But, the EU has gone too far and is now becoming a complete shithole since it has added many new countries which are too poor. Big cities (especially in London) in wealthy western countries are now experiencing with these poor people, gypsies, homeless and jobless people (also criminals) from Bulgaria, Greece and Romania etc. Illegal African immigrants are also another issue that the UK has to tackle. They jump on the boat and sail across the sea, some of them hide in the back of the lorries to come to UK. If they are genuine refugees, they should seek the asylum since in the first country they arrive for eg france or italy, but hell no, they try to pass these countries to end up in the UK. EU would have been great if it was made up of only 10 to 15 wealthy European countries. We should thank Russia for showing an interest to annex Ukraine. We are fully booked and don't want more poor people from eastern europe here.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2014
  11. jouni

    jouni Senior Member Senior Member

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    I don't mind UK leaving. We build new EU with Germany and welcome Ukraine and Russia to join. UK could stay maritime regional power and stay close ally of US.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    EU without UK is like u without penis
     
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  13. nrupatunga

    nrupatunga Senior Member Senior Member

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    What is this pic about?? What do the different colours represent??
     
  14. jouni

    jouni Senior Member Senior Member

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    This one one of the earlier plans for EU with Ukraine and parts of Russia as a part of it. Great Britain was also then considered being not part.
     
  15. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    You raise interesting points.

    Indeed immigrants or free access to Britain from the rest of the UK does create issues and problems. In fact, all immigrations do, the world over, especially when they burden the system and infrastructure.

    Let us analyse immigration, first.

    The first immigrants from the subcontinent to Britain were the lascars recruited to replace vacancies in the crews on East Indiamen whilst on voyages in India. Many were then refused passage back, and were marooned in London.

    Then, there were also some ayahs, domestic servants and nannies of wealthy British families, who accompanied their employers back to "Blighty" when their stay in Asia came to an end.

    After Britain was devastated in WWII and its economy and manufacturing at its nadir, there was the urgent need to fill the shortage of manpower especially for the blue collar jobs. The labour from the colonies came handy. In fact, the British Nationality Act 1948 was passed to allow the 800 million subjects in the British Empire to live and work in the United Kingdom without needing a visa.

    Likewise, post WWII, many from countries in the Soviet sphere of influence, especially Poles, were allowed to settle in Britain to make up for the shortage of labour.

    So, it would be correct to assume that Britain encouraged immigration for her own self-seeking needs and so when viewed in posterity, she can’t complain.

    The current influx from the EU is because of the clause in one of the Four Freedoms of the European Union, is the right to the free movement of people and UK is a member of the EU. That has encouraged cheap immigrant EU labour that fill the low paying slots that the British find too demeaning to accept. You may peruse the Telegraph article, ‘Cheap immigrant labour has cost blue-collar Britain dear’ of 02 Nov 2014.

    Therefore, it is hardly the fault of the EU labour and instead that of the British themselves. Now, if the British were ready to fill the slots and at the wages the EU labour gets, I would be surprised if a Briton would give a foreigner preference over his own.

    Then there is the question of Britain remaining politically relevant and wear the aura of being one of the great powers of the world. The aura is delusionary, but nonetheless is a reality. Therefore, you have embraced the so called political asylum seekers to appear as Moral Goody Two Shoes. This is a charade, if you don’t mind, that feeds fat to the British ego that they are very ‘caring and gentlemen like’ folks. The political actuality of the charade is that Britain encourages and breeds religious fundamentalists organisation and terrorists, as also anti govt movements against the country of origin, just to further your political agenda of having political leverage to influence the political environment of the target country of these terrorists and organisations. In addition, in some cases it does the new discovered importance of the advantages of the vote bank politics matrix.

    Of course, nonetheless I will concede that there is no doubt that all these immigrants would cause enormous complexity and burden the infrastructure in all aspects. There is no doubt about that.

    But then, sit back and ponder as to who is responsible for the mess caused.

    The Good Book states in Galatians 6:7 ESV
    Do not be deceived: God is not mocked, for whatever one sows, that will he also reap.

    The only way out for the UK is to reduce wages and facilities so that it is no longer attractive for people from Europe to migrate to the UK. As far as non EU immigrants, you have already taken measures that should be effective.

    Strengthen all EU Navies and patrol the Mediterranean in strength so that there is a virtual barricade wherein illegals cannot cross over and dissolve into the Europe population and then go onto the UK.

    And do not encourage terrorists and fundamentalist organisation to breed in the UK.

    You are the 3rd largest contributor and not the 1st or the 2nd. I am sure the two mentioned leaders before Britain would also grouse that they are also bankrolling the EU and to some extent, UK too. If for nothing else, then, at least by cranking up the British economy through cheap labour.

    I am sure if there was a German or a French poster here, he would also add to the woes that Britain is causing them. This blame game goes on.


    If I may correct one error, I am afraid Britain is not world's biggest financial centre. It has lost that position, all because of a raft of scandals in the City, uncertainty over Britain's future in the European Union and EU crackdown on bankers' bonuses. The financial capital is now New York.

    [​IMG]

    You are welcome to do exactly what you wish. None can question that.

    It would be of course interesting to see how much of a burden the British taxpayer will be able to shoulder if they quit the EU, when one finds that you are already grousing about how much the taxpayer is shouldering to support the EU, the immigrants and the illegals.

    Already you are pandering to the hoodlums who are creating law and order issues and ‘grooming’ your girls. It is all because of the vote bank. Given the tumult in British politics, where there is no clear mandate and instead the election leading to Coalition, every vote counts and none can be made upset. Given this situation, Britain panders and sweet talks to terrorists, thugs, ‘groomers’ of British girls, organisations inimical to the Govts of their country of origin and even people like that deranged Abu Hamza al-Masri, who preached Islamic fundamentalism and militant Islamism, exhorted openly in Britain to the killing of all non Muslim and even abused Britain.

    Indeed, just today your PM, the public school boy Cameron, said that he expected to see an Asian PM of Britain soon. As if! But it was music to fill the ballot box in this party’s favour. Sucking up for votes, that is what it is. The British are following the Indians in vote back politics chemistry. Good that you are now copying your erstwhile colonial subjects and learning how to win elections on mirages that appeal.

    Of course, illegals will come in and you can do a sausage about that. Your own Home Office study based on Census 2001 data released in March 2005 estimated a population of between 310,000 and 570,000. You think they came out of a Magician’s hat? You have been tightening your Immigration Rules for ages, and so it begs the question that how come the has been going up and up?

    Of course, none would mind disciplined, highly skilled, taxpaying immigrants. That goes without saying because they fill the gap where Britain fails to fill. It is all for the good of the Nation.

    Yet, interestingly, as per BBC (30 January 2014) the UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) found 146,200 job vacancies (22%) last year were unfilled because of inadequate skills, compared with 91,400 (16%) two years earlier. This will seriously affect the economy. How do you think that this will be filled? If is of immediate concern, it will obviously be filled by immigrant entries. And not all skilled jobs are white collar, the only ones that the native white British folks desire.

     
  16. santosh10

    santosh10 Senior Member Senior Member

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    thats the topic i just discussed in the thread as below too. i think my post as below may have a place here too :thumb:

    => http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/europe-russia/64033-eurozone-crisis-online-4.html#post963192


    we find a silver line on the fall of EU's economies, mainly on the side of solution of their immigration problem. the reserve trend of immigrants, and the consistency it has, would simply help UK/Britain regain their original identity. but the main problem of UK is the growing number of Muslims, which itself has a consistent rise in their population....

    Population of Muslims rising at the speed of more than 10 times to rest of the people in UK. hence, with decline of the East European population, I don't see UK helping itself on the side of immigration problem.

    only fall of Mexican born people in US, is something going to benefit US in future, true :thumb:
     
  17. nrupatunga

    nrupatunga Senior Member Senior Member

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    What do colours brown, blue, dark blue, green represent?? Also if its about EU, then what are North africa, west asia doing in the map?? Is iraq, syria, libya etc also going to join EU??
     
  18. santosh10

    santosh10 Senior Member Senior Member

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    hmmmm, look, UK needs EU as much as EU needs UK. its nothing but as important partner as France, Germany of EU28, even if we now put Italy, Spain on the lower side, the 4th and 5th largest economies of EU28.

    i guess, breakup of UK with EU28 will affect bit more than the scenario when France leave EU28, and it would be bit less important as compare to the case if Germany threaten to leave EU28 :ranger:

    Eurozone in full mess at present, and things will get tougher if UK leaves EU28. and its not the case that UK itself will be on any better side this way, definitely no .....

    => Gexit Is Better Than Grexit

     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  19. jouni

    jouni Senior Member Senior Member

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    Those with same color, would have close ties even if they were not in the EU. Like Italy and Spain with north african countries. This version of the EU never got behind planning stage.
     
  20. nrupatunga

    nrupatunga Senior Member Senior Member

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    [​IMG]

    Sorry Sir, this just does not look like a recent map of european countries at all. Also why is crimea along with germany/poland when neither russia nor ukraine is shown in same colour?? Also why is turkey having 2 colours i.e. green and blue?? Also parts of russia and baltic states along with belarus is shown one country while ukraine is enlarged. Why even finland is encroaching russian lands like lake ladoga? Frankly is this even a 20th century map of europe??
     
  21. jouni

    jouni Senior Member Senior Member

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    This is from 1942 When leaders of Europe were planning what future "Europen Union" would look like ;).
     

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