What if BJP wins UP election? For last few weeks, I was tracking lots of News related with UP election. Everywhere, one thing was common. SP will be at No. 1, BSP at No. 2, Congress+LD at No. 3 and BJP at 4th. BJP is nowhere in picture according to all election analyst. Then i saw a article about Rahul Gandhi on Outlook cover story. What if Rahul Fails? IMAGE. Since, Media has created the hype that Congress is going to do very well and might even reach at second position. In addition, Mulayam and Congress can come together after poll to form next government if they get 200 seats. Majority of Psephologist and Political Analyst across the media also saying the same. May be, May be not. We have to wait till 6th March to get clear picture. Now, what if BJP wins UP election? I know the chances are less and itâ€™s perfect opposite of what most people are expecting. But UP Election is very important for BJP. More important for many leaders like Gadkari, Uma Bharti and Modi. We will see both scenarios. Failure and Success. If BJP Fails. Now, how one will define that BJP failed? Failure has direct relation with Congress success. Failure of BJP will not measured by number of seats but relative success of Congress. It's direct competition between two national parties and will also decide future prospect of 2014 general election. Let Say, Congress wins 80-100 seats and BJP wins 40-50 seats. If Congress wins only 40-50 seats and BJP wins only 20-25 seats. In these scenarios, BJP will be considered as Failed. Since, Now BJP failed. Let see what would be consequence for the party. UP Election is purely Nitin Gadkari show. He is one man show and responsible for most of the decision. He took many decision including controversial and strange decision. They are: 1> He inducted Sunil Joshi back in BJP. Due to this decision, Both Modi and Advani are unhappy. It's almost sure that Modi is not going to campaign for this election due to this very reason. The reason behind taking Sunil Joshi into Party - He is grass-root strategist for BJP. He also has good relation with RSS cadres across the UP which he can mobilize to campaign for the party (Door-Door Campaign). 2> Induction of Uma Bharti despite protest from MP and UP local BJP leaders. Reason behind induction - Strong OBC and Hindutva leader. She is popular leader. Gadkari is doing what BJP supposed to do few years back. Nevertheless, he is trying to follow Govindcharya model. OBC Leads, Upper Cast Hits. 3> Induction of Kushwaha. Inspite of BJP campaign against Congress corruption, He inducted Kushwaha. Rest of the party leaders were unhappy but It was his decision only. Reason- 4% Kushwaha (MBC) voter which is not with BJP. Although, He is not in party officially due to corruption charges. Still, He is supporting BJP indirectly. 4> Most importantly - low media hype election campaign, below the radar. There is also one reason behind this strategy of Gadkari. I will throw some more light on later. If BJP Fails, Everyone will blame Nitin Gadkari as all decision were taken by him. He can say "Good Bye" from national politics. People will blame Gadkari more because he sidelined BJP biggest mass leader like MODI. Media campaign will be more vicious against BJP. Issue of Corruption will go below the carpet and discussion of Lack of Leader in BJP will come in picture. Congress will be rising star. BJP supporters will be sad and Modi Supporter will say "Now Only MODI has capability to lead BJP". The prospect of MODI as PM in 2014 will become reality. MODI will become larger than life and accepted leader who will lead the party as well country. So in the short-term BJPâ€™s failure in UP would seem disastrous but in the long-termâ€¦..? Now, what if BJP wins? Recently, Nitin Gadkari said that BJP is the dark horse of the race. SOURCE Success of BJP will be judged by Congress failure. i.e. BJP wins double seat than Congress. For example: If BJP wins 90-100 seats and Congress wins 40-50 seats. Then there will be no Government without BJP (80% chances until BSP loses very badly). Reasons: 1> BSP+SP can't come together. 2> BJP with 90-100 seats (+/- few seats) means only BJP+BSP is the possibility. BSP might lose election. But she will still win 80-120 seats. Last time, She won 206 seats. But there is twist. BJP will not support any party including BSP. BJP has realized that alliance with BSP is the reason why it lost its ground in last decade. Hence, only possibility in that scenario would be President Rule. Check the interview of Gadkari and Barka dutt. SOURCE - Last few lines. What will be the consequences of this win? Nitin Gandkari will become important national leader. UMA Bharti will also become Numero Uno party leader in UP. It's relatively easy to double seat 100 to 200 but extremely difficult to increase the seat from 50 to 200. Revival of BJP where BJP is weak will also come in picture. So, If BJP wins, it will be two consecutive win in Hindi Belts Bihar, U.P. without MODI. Hence, there will be some voice that Modi is liablity outside Gujarat. Then chance of Modi becoming PM will become highly unlikely. Leaders like Jaitley or Swaraj or even Gadkari will have chance to become next P.M. The decisions taken by Gadkari were based on Social engineering and some strategy. Uma Bharti and Kushwaha were due to Cast and regional factor. As far as Suni Joshi and Low hype media campaign is based on strategy. Muslims have been voting en bloc against BJP. But this time since BJP is weak; Hence their votes are divided between SP-BSP-Congress. They are not voting with sole intention to defeat BJP. READ THIS to get an idea. This is advantage for BJP. Low hype Media, Door-Door to campaign by BJP (Sunil Joshi strategy), Blessing in disguise that Modi and even Varun Gandhi is not coming might help the party to reach close to 3 figures. The success of BJP-Nitish in Bihar was the result of Social engineering, Low hype Media campaign, Avoiding Hindutva card so that Muslims don't vote en bloc against BJP-JD(u) and Local level/Door-Door to campaign. Hence, Neither Muslims will vote to BJP nor BJP wants but BJP don't want Muslims to vote en bloc against them in U.P. as party is weak. BJP needs 45% votes to win 50% seats in Gujarat but in U.P., Even 25% vote will make BJP to win 1/3rd seat. So, In short two situation. 1> If BJP wins in UP --> Gain for BJP in Short term as well as for Hindutva leaders like Uma Bharti and other leaders in few states but long term disadvantage for Modi. 2> if BJP fails in UP ---> Short term Disaster for Party but long term advantage. MODI might become party president in 2012 end and PM candidate in 2014. All leaders like Jaitley, Swaraj, Gadkari will try their level best to keep Modi away from national politics.