What if BJP wins UP election?

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Galaxy, Feb 23, 2012.

?

What you will prefer ?

  1. BJP wins UP Election.

    73.1%
  2. BJP Fails in UP Election.

    7.7%
  3. Not Sure.

    19.2%
  1. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    What if BJP wins UP election?

    For last few weeks, I was tracking lots of News related with UP election. Everywhere, one thing was common. SP will be at No. 1, BSP at No. 2, Congress+LD at No. 3 and BJP at 4th. BJP is nowhere in picture according to all election analyst. Then i saw a article about Rahul Gandhi on Outlook cover story. What if Rahul Fails? IMAGE. Since, Media has created the hype that Congress is going to do very well and might even reach at second position. In addition, Mulayam and Congress can come together after poll to form next government if they get 200 seats. Majority of Psephologist and Political Analyst across the media also saying the same. May be, May be not. We have to wait till 6th March to get clear picture.

    Now, what if BJP wins UP election?

    I know the chances are less and it’s perfect opposite of what most people are expecting. But UP Election is very important for BJP. More important for many leaders like Gadkari, Uma Bharti and Modi. We will see both scenarios. Failure and Success.

    If BJP Fails.

    Now, how one will define that BJP failed? Failure has direct relation with Congress success. Failure of BJP will not measured by number of seats but relative success of Congress. It's direct competition between two national parties and will also decide future prospect of 2014 general election. Let Say, Congress wins 80-100 seats and BJP wins 40-50 seats. If Congress wins only 40-50 seats and BJP wins only 20-25 seats. In these scenarios, BJP will be considered as Failed. Since, Now BJP failed. Let see what would be consequence for the party. UP Election is purely Nitin Gadkari show. He is one man show and responsible for most of the decision. He took many decision including controversial and strange decision.

    They are:

    1> He inducted Sunil Joshi back in BJP. Due to this decision, Both Modi and Advani are unhappy. It's almost sure that Modi is not going to campaign for this election due to this very reason. The reason behind taking Sunil Joshi into Party - He is grass-root strategist for BJP. He also has good relation with RSS cadres across the UP which he can mobilize to campaign for the party (Door-Door Campaign).
    2> Induction of Uma Bharti despite protest from MP and UP local BJP leaders. Reason behind induction - Strong OBC and Hindutva leader. She is popular leader. Gadkari is doing what BJP supposed to do few years back. Nevertheless, he is trying to follow Govindcharya model. OBC Leads, Upper Cast Hits.
    3> Induction of Kushwaha. Inspite of BJP campaign against Congress corruption, He inducted Kushwaha. Rest of the party leaders were unhappy but It was his decision only. Reason- 4% Kushwaha (MBC) voter which is not with BJP. Although, He is not in party officially due to corruption charges. Still, He is supporting BJP indirectly.
    4> Most importantly - low media hype election campaign, below the radar. There is also one reason behind this strategy of Gadkari. I will throw some more light on later.

    If BJP Fails, Everyone will blame Nitin Gadkari as all decision were taken by him. He can say "Good Bye" from national politics. People will blame Gadkari more because he sidelined BJP biggest mass leader like MODI. Media campaign will be more vicious against BJP. Issue of Corruption will go below the carpet and discussion of Lack of Leader in BJP will come in picture. Congress will be rising star.

    BJP supporters will be sad and Modi Supporter will say "Now Only MODI has capability to lead BJP". The prospect of MODI as PM in 2014 will become reality. MODI will become larger than life and accepted leader who will lead the party as well country.

    So in the short-term BJP’s failure in UP would seem disastrous but in the long-term…..?


    Now, what if BJP wins?

    Recently, Nitin Gadkari said that BJP is the dark horse of the race. SOURCE

    Success of BJP will be judged by Congress failure. i.e. BJP wins double seat than Congress. For example: If BJP wins 90-100 seats and Congress wins 40-50 seats. Then there will be no Government without BJP (80% chances until BSP loses very badly). Reasons:
    1> BSP+SP can't come together.
    2> BJP with 90-100 seats (+/- few seats) means only BJP+BSP is the possibility. BSP might lose election. But she will still win 80-120 seats. Last time, She won 206 seats. But there is twist. BJP will not support any party including BSP. BJP has realized that alliance with BSP is the reason why it lost its ground in last decade. Hence, only possibility in that scenario would be President Rule. Check the interview of Gadkari and Barka dutt. SOURCE - Last few lines.

    What will be the consequences of this win?

    Nitin Gandkari will become important national leader. UMA Bharti will also become Numero Uno party leader in UP. It's relatively easy to double seat 100 to 200 but extremely difficult to increase the seat from 50 to 200. Revival of BJP where BJP is weak will also come in picture. So, If BJP wins, it will be two consecutive win in Hindi Belts Bihar, U.P. without MODI. Hence, there will be some voice that Modi is liablity outside Gujarat. Then chance of Modi becoming PM will become highly unlikely. Leaders like Jaitley or Swaraj or even Gadkari will have chance to become next P.M. The decisions taken by Gadkari were based on Social engineering and some strategy. Uma Bharti and Kushwaha were due to Cast and regional factor. As far as Suni Joshi and Low hype media campaign is based on strategy. Muslims have been voting en bloc against BJP. But this time since BJP is weak; Hence their votes are divided between SP-BSP-Congress. They are not voting with sole intention to defeat BJP. READ THIS to get an idea. This is advantage for BJP. Low hype Media, Door-Door to campaign by BJP (Sunil Joshi strategy), Blessing in disguise that Modi and even Varun Gandhi is not coming might help the party to reach close to 3 figures. The success of BJP-Nitish in Bihar was the result of Social engineering, Low hype Media campaign, Avoiding Hindutva card so that Muslims don't vote en bloc against BJP-JD(u) and Local level/Door-Door to campaign. Hence, Neither Muslims will vote to BJP nor BJP wants but BJP don't want Muslims to vote en bloc against them in U.P. as party is weak. BJP needs 45% votes to win 50% seats in Gujarat but in U.P., Even 25% vote will make BJP to win 1/3rd seat.

    So, In short two situation.

    1> If BJP wins in UP --> Gain for BJP in Short term as well as for Hindutva leaders like Uma Bharti and other leaders in few states but long term disadvantage for Modi.
    2> if BJP fails in UP ---> Short term Disaster for Party but long term advantage. MODI might become party president in 2012 end and PM candidate in 2014. All leaders like Jaitley, Swaraj, Gadkari will try their level best to keep Modi away from national politics.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2012
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  3. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    That will be the day!

    As per the indications, there is no hope in hell that the BJP will win.

    But then India is a Land of Miracles and Oriental Magic!

    Indications has it that SP will crawl its way home, leaving other gasping and bewildered that the second wind is missing!
     
  4. Poseidon

    Poseidon Regular Member

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    It will very surprising if they win as most opinion polls are giving them around 45-55 seats.
    But this is India everything is possible.
     
  5. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Barkha Dutt: And in UP the same question. Will the BJP be open to an alliance, for example, with the BSP?

    Nitin Gadkari: You take an affidavit from me ...

    Barkha Dutt: Affidavit? Stamp lagake?

    Nitin Gadkari: Yes. Stamp lagake record karlo aur nahi maine kiya to lagao. At any cost, directly or indirectly, we will not make any compromise with Mulayam Singhji and Mayawatiji before the election and after the election.

    Barkha Dutt: This is an affidavit?

    Nitin Gadkari: Yes. You take it from me. Main ek baar jo baat bolta hoon piche nahi hatta. Takat se keh raha hoon. Otherwise aap din bhar NDTV pe dikha dena ki Nitin Gadkari jhooth bola tha. If anything happens, I will not commit the mistake. Main kabhi nahi galti karoonga.

    Barkha Dutt: You have been in an alliance with the BSP before.

    Nitin Gadkari: Abhi nahi karoonga. Ek baar galti hui abhi nahi karoonga. Uske parinaam bhugat rahe hai hum log. Aaj jo BJP Uttar Pradesh mein piche aayi, the basic reason is our making alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party. I will not commit that mistake at any cost. If we are not getting a majority then we will be in the Opposition. Whatever the consequences may be we are ready to face them, but we will not cooperate by any direct or indirect alliance with the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party.

    Barkha Dutt: Not even outside support?

    Nitin Gadkari: Not at all.

    Barkha Dutt: I will test this affidavit after the elections are over. Thank you so much.

    Full transcript: Nitin Gadkari speaks to NDTV
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2012
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  6. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    My 2 bits

    SP and BSP wil be tied at top
    BJP- 3rd with around 70 to 75 seats and
    Congress with 50 seats.

    Both SP and BSP will be short of the magic figure.
     
  7. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    I voted as I would prefer BJP winning.

    But I know it is not happening. It's either SP or BSP.

    The fight between Congress and BJP is essentially for the 3 rd and 4 th place.

    But you never know, some sweet surprises may happen.Fingers crossed.
     
  8. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    I don't want that fellow Mulayam to come to power at any cost. :rage: I will cry if SP comes to power. :cry:

    Even current BSP is better than SP coming back. Maybe BJP is a slightly better choice in UP today, than BSP, and is certainly much better than SP.

    But there is no chance of BJP winning.
     
  9. Vyom

    Vyom Seeker Elite Member

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    I think SP would emerge as the single largest party. What a pity, I would prefer BSP over SP anyday
     
  10. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Please note: I have not given any prediction how many seats BJP will win even when i do have some idea as per my observation and ground reality. I gave both the scenario. FAIL or WIN.

    UP Election is the most important state election before 2014 General election. Result is very crucial for Congress and BJP.

    I will add few more important points/observation later on........
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2012
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  11. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    Actually the stats show that UP as a whole has had some good numbers on the economic front. Now if only the numbers can be distributed uniformly from west to east, it would be ideal.

    Yes, Mullah Mulayam is the scum of scum and I wonder why Tsunami doesnt kill idiots like him :noidea:
     
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  12. Vyom

    Vyom Seeker Elite Member

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    Dumbo believes in doling out freebies to win elections, and uses the same tactics in each elections. I wonder how people like Amitabh Bachchan do not feel ashamed to be associated with him
     
  13. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    True. But now Amitabh Bachchan is with BJP. He is brand ambassador for Gujarat tourism.
     
  14. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Because UP doesn't have a coastline. :pound:
     
  15. Bangalorean

    Bangalorean Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    True - I still cannot forget that nauseating campaign. "UP mein hai dum, kyonki yahan jurm hai kam"!! Shameless. :frusty:
     
  16. Vyom

    Vyom Seeker Elite Member

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    No he is not. He just wants good relations with everyone.

    He was there in Mulayam's second son's wedding.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Vyom

    Vyom Seeker Elite Member

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    I say take him and his entire party to coastline the next time Tsunami comes. :p
     
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  18. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Contrary to general believe. This election is not crucial for BSP or SP in same way it's for BJP or Congress. It's important test for Rahul Gandhi and Gadkari. If Gadkari loses, Then advantage for MODI. If Rahul loses, Big setback for Rahul as well as Congress as in next 8 states - BJP has advantage over Congress (Like Gujarat, M.P., Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, etc.)

    No party will get 200 seats. (Most likely).

    But what if Congress + SP Gets 200 seats ? Then, May be Salman Khurshid will become CM and Akhilesh Yadav (SP) will become Dy CM. Mulayam can also become CM but only if SP gets at least 2/3rd seat out of 200.

    If BJP gets around 80-100 seats and BSP also gets 100 odd seats. Then there can be no government without BJP. In that case, BJP will not support any party (as per Gadkari bold statement). So, President rule. In that case, Advantage for BJP as It's easier for BJP to get few % more votes. Because 20% voters are BJP strong votes. BJP lost because few % OBC voters left BJP due to SP-BSP cast factor and BJP alliance with these parties (Directly/Indirectly).

    Very complex situation !!
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2012
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  19. KS

    KS Bye bye DFI Veteran Member

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    It's a popular Tamil tagline.
     
  20. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    If Congress does not do well than it will not effect Rahul Gandhi in any way. Leaders like Salman Kursheed, Digvijay Singh and Rita Bahuguna are there to face the music.

    In case Congress does well then there will be problems of plenty. there will be three centers - Rahul G, Sonia G and the other PM G. Our PM G may be shunted up to the Rashtrapati Bhawan and make way for Rahul G.

    The last case is very interesting in case Congress does very badly then wait for the cries of Priyanka Gandhi to start. Leaders wil fall over each other to call out to her. Delhi will be full of posters with her photograph imploring her to take over and save the Nation/Party.
     
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  21. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    @Sob it looks BJP will make good gains in UP atleast thats the info Iam getting .Lets wait until the verdict is out.The congress did a purely cosmetic campaign
     

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