We Have A Chinese Problem, Not A North Korean One

Discussion in 'Indo Pacific & East Asia' started by LETHALFORCE, May 27, 2009.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2009
    Messages:
    20,546
    Likes Received:
    6,549
    We Have A Chinese Problem, Not A North Korean One - Forbes.com

    We Have A Chinese Problem, Not A North Korean One
    Gordon G. Chang, 05.25.09, 04:34 PM EDT
    If it weren't for Beijing, Pyongyang would be impotent.


    Hours after the Democratic People's Republic of Korea detonated its second atomic device, Beijing condemned the test. "The DPRK conducted another nuclear test in disregard of the common opposition of the international community," a Foreign Ministry statement, issued May 25, noted. "The Chinese government is firmly opposed to this act."

    Is that so? Today, China supplies about 90% of North Korea's oil, 80% of its consumer goods and 45% of its food. Beijing is Pyongyang's only formal military ally and its primary backer in the United Nations Security Council and other diplomatic forums. If it weren't for the Chinese, there would be no North Korean missile program, no North Korean nuclear program and no North Korea.


    Kim Jong Il, Pyongyang's coldly rational leader, knows he could not survive the loss of China's material and diplomatic support. If Chairman Kim doesn't appear to listen to his sponsors in Beijing in every instance, it's largely because they don't expect obedience each and every time. The Chinese pursue their plan of supporting the North because they know they have influence and can use it at any moment. Kim detonated a nuclear weapon in the last few hours because he knew the Chinese did not object to him doing so. He would not dare cross Beijing on a matter of such critical importance.

    For the last eight years, the United States has had a Korea policy that can be described in one word: China. President Bush looked to Beijing to contain Pyongyang and disarm Kim. Yet during his administration the Chinese gave the North Korean leader the one thing he needed most to develop nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them: time. The Chinese counseled patience while the so-called six-party talks, which began in 2003, dragged on, but they failed to broker a solution even though they could have done so.

    Many Chinese officials, especially in the Foreign Ministry, know their country's Korea policy is counterproductive in the long run because it will eventually lead to the nuclearization of the region and thereby the marginalization of Beijing's relative power. Yet there is no consensus in the upper echelons of the Communist Party and the People's Liberation Army to change long-held policies. Apparently, President Hu Jintao finds Kim useful in the short-term for keeping Japan and South Korea off-balance and in extracting concessions from the United States.

    Today, President Obama said North Korea's acts "pose a grave threat to the peace and stability of the world." So what should his administration do? From all accounts, his senior Asia officials feel the United States has no leverage on Beijing. That assessment could not be more wrong. The legitimacy of the Chinese political system rests largely on the continual delivery of prosperity, and that prosperity depends on access to the American market.

    In 2008, all but $29.2 billion of China's overall trade surplus of $295.5 billion related to sales to the United States. In 2007, all but $5.9 billion of the overall surplus of $262.2 billion was attributable to sales to America. The United States relies on Beijing to buy American debt, but the Chinese export machine cannot function if China does not buy our obligations. If Beijing does not do so, it will further constrain the American economy. If Beijing further constrains the American economy, Americans will be able to buy even fewer Chinese goods than they are at the moment. If Americans buy fewer Chinese goods, the Chinese economy will fall even faster than it is doing so now. And if the Chinese economy declines any faster, the country's political system will face increased tensions and difficulties.

    So the White House has leverage, especially because the balance of power in Asia has shifted decisively toward the United States. In the past, Beijing could stand behind Pyongyang because Tokyo and the so-called "progressive" governments in Seoul--first under Kim Dae-jung and then Roh Moo-hyun--were doing the same. In short, the Japanese and South Koreans, Washington's two principal allies in the region, were giving the Chinese cover to continue with their long-time program of supporting the North.


    Yet China's cover did not last. First Japan under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and then South Korea under President Lee Myung-bak got out of the business of propping up Chairman Kim Jong Il. That has left Beijing alone in its support of the abhorrent regime in Pyongyang. In the past, the Chinese have defied Washington when they had company but were almost always cooperative when they did not.

    Unfortunately, the Bush White House did not take advantage of changing circumstances in Asia and was unwilling to make China choose between its future--cooperation with the United States and the international community--and its past--relations with Kim's Korea. Today, the Obama administration is making the same fundamental mistake.

    President Obama will never have a successful Korea policy until he has a successful Chinese one. North Korea can continue to defy the international community as long as it has Beijing's support. So we don't have a North Korea problem. We have a China one.
     
  2.  
  3. Sailor

    Sailor Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2009
    Messages:
    591
    Likes Received:
    5
    It is obvious that a North Korean bomb then is in China's interests.
    Why? Why is this necessary when they have nuclear weapons of their own?
    It can only be that they want North Korea to use them to take out South Korea and Japan.
    This would mean the end of North Korea as well, but that doesn't matter.
    Are there actually devious minds thinking like this, because I can't think of another reason to create this Frankenstein than to launch a nuclear attack by proxy whilst they sit back unharmed?
     
  4. Su-47

    Su-47 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    Messages:
    282
    Likes Received:
    18
    If China did sponsor the NK nuke, it shows ignorance. Imagine in the short future if NK has a dispute with the Chinese. China would have to deal with a nuclear power. If the Chinese army enters NK, it will be a very sunny day in Beijing.

    Same thing can happen with pak. If one day the ruling regime of Pak has a fallout with China, then China will have to contend with another nuclear powered enemy.

    This is why you should NEVER proliferate nukes. You never know when one might fall on your city.
     
  5. EnlightenedMonk

    EnlightenedMonk Member of The Month JULY 2009 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2009
    Messages:
    3,831
    Likes Received:
    23
    China creates these spoilt rogue nations and builds relationships with them... then they sell weapons and arm these nations...

    And, when these countries become pains in the world's arse, China steps in, chides these countries and increases its own profile on the International stage...
     
  6. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2009
    Messages:
    2,553
    Likes Received:
    100
    Chinese are known to be inscrutable. I think they are also making some big strategic blunders by these stupid moves. They are losing all credibility by supporting all these despotic regimes. They have proven that they are unscrupulous and have no compunctions. They have lost all moral claims that the Chinese used to have.
     
  7. EnlightenedMonk

    EnlightenedMonk Member of The Month JULY 2009 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2009
    Messages:
    3,831
    Likes Received:
    23
    Woah !!! Did the CCP have any moral claims ??? Im not talking about the Chinese people, only the CCP !!!
     
  8. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2009
    Messages:
    2,553
    Likes Received:
    100
    I meant that the CCP has lost any moral credibility that the Chinese people may have.
     
  9. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2009
    Messages:
    11,613
    Likes Received:
    5,670
    This is clearly a China sponsored Nuke test, a failed nation cannot afford to do it. They neither have military reason to do it either. Probably, chinese are testing their new designs or something from their old stockpile. I agree that NoKos might be good at making some missiles but when it comes to Nuke technology, they don't have neither industrial nor scientific base to get to this stage. There is a clear support to NoKo from China through another rogue state Pakistan.

    China-NoKo-Pakistan are the new evil nexus of this world.
     
  10. Su-47

    Su-47 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    Messages:
    282
    Likes Received:
    18
    Isn't it CPC, not CCP? I thought China's ruling body was called the Communist Party Congress?
     
  11. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2009
    Messages:
    2,553
    Likes Received:
    100
  12. ZOOM

    ZOOM Founding Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2009
    Messages:
    577
    Likes Received:
    10
    It is a comman knowledge that Chinese are doing nothing but firing a bullet by putting its Gun on the shoulder of Pakistan and Korea. Unfortunetly targets are none other then US and India.

    North Korea is adamant in leveraging its Nucler status to get work done in various Diplomatic avenues. Even US has a some sharing to do in all this mess. Since despite knowing all wrongdoings of Pakistan in stealing Nuke technology, it never brought too much pressure on it and only get away by imposing some sanctions. Then why does they are doing such a double standard with North Korea. That one US Mistake to let Pakistan scott free has created greater consequences for it in the form of North Korea and now Iran.
     
  13. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2009
    Messages:
    2,553
    Likes Received:
    100
    The Chinese are using these coutries like N. Korea and Pakistan as pawns.

    Like OOE says on WAB: "China will fight India to the last Pakistani". Pakistanis are ready to be used, so why should China not use them?
     
  14. ZOOM

    ZOOM Founding Member

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2009
    Messages:
    577
    Likes Received:
    10
    May be Pakistani no longer have a ball as once they had during 60s and 70s when they tried to venture inside indian territory and got thrashed once and for all.
     
  15. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2009
    Messages:
    2,553
    Likes Received:
    100
    Those were the days of 1 Pakistani = 7 Indians (or was it 10?).

    The hiding they got in 1971 removed all those pretensions. Now they are just happy to say that they are up against a much bigger enemy and even a draw is something to be proud of.
     
  16. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2009
    Messages:
    20,546
    Likes Received:
    6,549
    Chinese have an interest in keeping N. kores propped up, more could be done against N.korea but China always uses their UNSC position as a spoiler vetoing even the mildest sanctions or action against N.korea.
     
  17. Su-47

    Su-47 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    Messages:
    282
    Likes Received:
    18
    China will burn its hands soon, if they continue using NK like this. Imagine if USA and its allies attack NK. China won't interfere directly. NK will know that the reason they were attacked is coz they were used by China. In their last moments, than lunatic Kim might decide to take not just Seoul and Tokyo, but also Beijing along with him.

    The USA and pak used Taliban as a proxy, and they are suffering now. and that is against a bunch of ragtags using rusty Kalashnikovs and make-shift bombs. Even after seeing how proxies turn on their masters, the Chinese still haven't learned.

    Atleast USA and Pak don't have to deal with a nuclear powered enemy. If the Chinese keep proliferating the nukes, one day when one of their proxies turn on them, there'll be a nuke with the all common "made in china" label heading for Beijing.
     
  18. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2009
    Messages:
    4,434
    Likes Received:
    1,719
    Location:
    Land of the GODS - "Dev Bhomi".
    prc is trying to create a space for themselves in the international diplomacy as they grow in terms of economic might. As prc grows in stature the world is getting divided further and ion its own interests prc is supporting regimes/countries that are more than ready to further its cause. from the looks of it prc is trying to put counters to the moves that are or have been made by the us and create situations where us might be forced into an act of war which could in the end leave it heavily weakened. if the past policies of the prc on the international level is to be closely followed then one realises that do not believe in direct confrontations but push their will indirectly byway of proxies and these proxies are the ones who have no love for all their adverses including the us. the thing that bothers the prc the most is a direct confrontation with a highly advanced, resourceful us armed forces and they know well that with the present disparity between the usaf and their armed forces they do not stand a chance so they are themselves in a process of buying time during which time they want to create situations which drain out the us in any which way and in effect have a us which is highly depleted on all fronts.


    the propping up of dprk has to be seen in the larger scheme of things than that has been presented by the author in the article posted. dprk has been put across as a challenge not only to japan and south korea but most certainly to the us interests and their assets in the region and with the capabilities that they are working on they are sure to lay hands on stuff which could lead to a direct threat of nuke weapons to the us mainland, a sure shot nightmare for the us. the intent is clear, rather than have the us concentrate on the rise of prc's armed forces and their capabilities and let them plan counters to all such moves it is best to keep the us bogged down with various other issues of which dprk is the prime example. if we move beyond the dprk and reflect at states like pakistan and iran then the policy initiated by the prc is no different and since these proxies have not had a smooth past with the us and with rest of the prc's adversaries so they are more than happy to oblige prc by furthering its agendas and interests.


    as we discuss this issue, the world order is changing and what we are seeing is the rise of han china and not a communist prc if i were to put it in the words of g. parthasarthy and historically if this tribe/clan is to be followed then they very clearly show a past which has been violent when it comes to fulfilling their wishes and demands a fact that has till now been ignored by the larger international audience and policy makers. the dragon is rising and come 2020 they will start spitting fire which has not happened so far and one will find a very aggressive prc and their proxies. certainly a bad time to have us president as obama who seems to have a very myopic point of view when it comes to foreign policy issues. there are certain issues on which there have to be aggressive policy making but the present us administration does not seem to have an appetite for the same and mistake that is being made now but the reputations of which will be felt by the future us administrations.
     
  19. Su-47

    Su-47 Regular Member

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    Messages:
    282
    Likes Received:
    18
    This is another cold war. China will play role of Russia and NATO will play role of NATO. Just like the last cold war, it will be a mainly proxy war.

    India shouldn't interfere too much. We should try keep our neutrality, and not be used by anyone.

    By the middle or later half of this century, we'll be a true power of our own.
     
  20. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2009
    Messages:
    20,546
    Likes Received:
    6,549
    you are right SU-47 we don't need to do anything especially with Obama being a sheep, we will just wait for a better leader and an alliance against China to develop and be involved when that happens.
     

Share This Page