US would have invaded Pakistan if drones were not there

Discussion in 'Pakistan' started by Yusuf, Aug 16, 2013.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    'Were it not for drones, the United States would probably have had to have invade Pakistan.' So declared Dr John Nagl at a public lecture hosted by the ANU Strategic and Defence Studies Centre in Canberra on Tuesday, 13 August.

    It's a bold – and alarming – assertion that speaks volumes for the way drones have changed the course of warfare.

    Dr Nagl, a retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel who co-authored FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency Field Manual, the doctrine underpinning the radical overhaul of American operations in Iraq after 2006, noted the effectiveness of American drone strikes against al-Qaeda's central leadership in Pakistan. 'Drones have certainly not been an unmitigated good, but they have allowed us not to invade Pakistan, which would have been really bad', he said. 'They've allowed us to essentially eliminate al-Qaeda Central, which is a strategic success for the United States – a fairly extraordinary accomplishment with relatively minor collateral damage and innocent casualties.'

    With the increasing frequency of drone strikes in Yemen as the US stepped up efforts against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Dr Nagl said the program would wind down in Pakistan, in part due to a lack of viable targets. 'I think we've done so well in that fight, in fact, that we're now reaching a point of diminishing returns', he said. 'We killed pretty much all of the bad guys that matter.'

    While the threat posed by sub-national groups had diminished, Dr Nagl said Pakistan 'will continue to present a threat to the security of the world'.

    'Pakistan scares me silly', Dr Nagl said. 'It confronts a number of insurgencies, it has the fastest growing nuclear weapons program in the world, it is the worst proliferator of nuclear technology in the world.' To complicate matters further, Dr Nagl said Pakistan's nuclear facilities are poorly guarded and vulnerable to attack by insurgents, citing a New York Times report by David Sanger. 'I am much more concerned about Pakistani nuclear weapons than I am about the prospect of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons', Dr Nagl said.

    Across the border, Dr Nagl believes there is a tarnished silver lining to Western intervention in Afghanistan after 9/11.

    'The challenge of succeeding in Afghanistan – which I believe is not just possible but likely by a pretty low level definition of 'success' – is an Afghanistan that does not allow sub-national terror groups to operate inside its borders, and does not present a threat to the West', he said.

    It would be vital for Western militaries to maintain a minor physical presence in Afghanistan through counterterrorism operations and advisor programs for Afghan Security Forces (ASF), Dr Nagl said. Most important, however, was that US Congress 'continues to pay the bills' in fostering ASF development. 'When the Soviet Union departed, the Afghan government held. It held for three years', Dr Nagl said. 'It only fell when the Soviet Union dissolved and stopped writing the cheques that had kept the Afghan military funded.' So long as the funding continues, Dr Nagl believes the ASF and central government will hold fast.

    'They will stand against the Taliban...and sub-national terror groups will not be able to operate with impunity inside Afghanistan', he said. 'Importantly, we will have intelligence assets and special forces assets able to see into Pakistan, whose sub-national problems make those of Afghanistan pale by comparison.'

    Looking to the uprising in Syria, Dr Nagl cautioned against using the Western-assisted regime change in Libya as a benchmark for success in a similar intervention in Syria. 'Airstrikes on Syria would be enormously costly. It would be very difficult. And there's no appetite in the United States, in Britain, in France, and I believe in Australia...for the scope and the scale of the effort that would be required,' he said.

    As Syria's internal conflict dragged on, it had become increasingly complex and drawn in more stakeholders, to the point that anti-Assad forces had become dangerously ill-defined as external jihadists took up the call to arms. 'I'm concerned in Syria that we waited too long, and the good guys are dead, and there's no good side to back now, there's no good options there', he said.

    Dr Nagl was a proponent of arming and training Syria's rebels in mid-2012, as were several of President Obama's top advisers. 'We now know Secretary of State Clinton, the then Director of Central Intelligence Petraeus, and SECDEF Panetta all supported a train-and-equip mission to the Syrian rebels. The President chose otherwise', he said.

    President Obama's caution in deploying US combat forces other than drones was based on the bitter lessons of the Iraq War. 'We planned for toppling Saddam, but literally had no plan for the day after. What comes after Assad? And how long are we willing to occupy Syria, with how many troops, in order to allow that government to get off the ground? And the answer appears to be: we're not.'

    Without the will for international intervention, Dr Nagl believes the Syrian civil war could drag on for decades. 'We constrained...American domestic and foreign policy for generations by the mistake of Iraq', he said. 'And I am afraid that the people of Syria are suffering in no small part as a consequence.'

    http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2013/08/15/Nagl-Drones-precluded-US-invasion-of-Pakistan.aspx
     
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  3. arnabmit

    arnabmit Homo Communis Indus Senior Member

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    Oh I so wish there would have been no drones!
     
  4. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    - so Packland should express gratitide to their master , usa, for the drone bombings !!
     
  5. farhan_9909

    farhan_9909 Tihar Jail Banned

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    drone were not active pre 2000

    otherwise when hagel said india is a terrorist country because of there support of terrorism against pakistan in afghanistan.

    not even the news was posted in the forum.
     
  6. Bhadra

    Bhadra Defence Professionals Defence Professionals Senior Member

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    Forget about others, what will happen to Pakistan if India were to be terrorist country ??
     
  7. farhan_9909

    farhan_9909 Tihar Jail Banned

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    they tried there level best and trying even now.but thanks to ISI.

    one must learn proxy war activities from them.ISI had made kashmiri a living hell for indian army within india
    but this is only the trailer.

    release honay do pirr dekho kia hota hay.(onwards 2014)
     
  8. vishwaprasad

    vishwaprasad Regular Member

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    Lol... beggar citizen of bagger country is showing trailers and movies???....

    drone attacks, raymond davis episodes, ossama murder, P-3 orions voluntary retirement was a trailer and now Picture Abhi Baki Hai dost jisme Ek Maa Pakistan ke pet se Janam Lenge Sindhudesh, Greater Balochistan, Pakhtunistan aur na jane kitni najayeej aulaade... Maa Pakistan sirf rahegi Punjab tak land lock banke....bhikh mangegi sadkon pe....allah ke naam pe dede, moula ke naam pe dede
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2013
  9. farhan_9909

    farhan_9909 Tihar Jail Banned

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    Modi follower.i would rather not want to derail this topic with you
     
  10. vishwaprasad

    vishwaprasad Regular Member

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    Taliban and Madarssa school student, we are discussing what US could have done to flop, terrorist and ABC (all time begging country aka Pakistan) if there were no drones... so we would rather not want to derail this topic just because you are poking your nose in it with your idiot comments mentioning trailers and movies...
     
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  11. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

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    I would not believe this article. This is yet another half assed think tank in my view. Pakistan is a declared ally that receives money and arms from the US and has been that way for 60 years. Drones cannot kill those whom Pakistan protects. And the US never invades any country that it feels might bite back. Grenada check. Afghanistan. Check. Iraq Check. NoKo never. Pakistan never.

    Sorry to say but this business of "If US did not have drones it would have attacked" is in the same genre of mental onanism as "If my aunt had a beard she would have been my uncle"
     
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  12. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    i remembered dialogue from movie sholay"" jab tak basanti nachegi, veeru zinda rahega""

    so it means as long as drone strike continues, pakis are saved from american invasion.


    that is why from gazi army to pak politician dont oppose drone strike:rofl::rofl:
     
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  13. angeldude13

    angeldude13 Lestat De Lioncourt Senior Member

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    pakistani just love drones.
    they love american drones and drones attack so much that they have declared drones as there national birdie :gangnam:
     
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  14. dhananjay1

    dhananjay1 Regular Member

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    Lets not be hasty, they might have to invade Pakistan yet.
     
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  15. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    true ,kashmir is a living hell but not for indian army for puppet insurgents from pakland
     
  16. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Personally I doubt this. The Americans can never seriously "invade" Pakistan the way they invaded Afghanistan, Iraq and to an extent Vietnam. In the last 3 cases they built up local "allies" who gave them bases. In the case of Afghanistan it was Pakistan itself. In order to invade Pakistan. India will have to give them bases. Or Iran.

    But Pakistan is too huge a country to be invaded by the US.

    However, the US can punish Pakistan from the air and drone strikes make me laugh (or maybe I should cry). The US has access to B 52s, B 1s, B 2s F/A 18s, A-10s. Maybe F 117s are still available. And F 16s can be used for strike roles. They have sub and ship launched cruise missiles and any number of smart munitions. The have MOABs too, and all they can do is send drones carrying Hellfires? :rofl: Tell me another one. If I claim to hate my neighbour's wife but all I do is squeeze her bottom gently and not really harm her anyone should be able to read my true intention. All that the US is doing is squeezing Pakistan's bottom gently with drones.

    I think Indians should stop fooling themselves by hoping that the US will punish Paistan. The US _will_not_do_that_. The US is an ally of Pakistan. Ultimately Pakistan will have to be punished by India. Pakistanis realize this, but it is high time Indians and their government woke up to this.

    Maybe I should do an article about the depth of US Paki cooperation and the quantum of aid they have received since 1958. I have the data on my hard disk but will need to search. Anyone who recalls the last 60 years will not believe for a moment that the US has any intention of actually hitting Pakistan.
     
    Last edited: Aug 17, 2013
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  17. sesha_maruthi27

    sesha_maruthi27 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Abey farhan_9909, teri sab kuch band rakh.....

    Ab dekho kya hal hoga pakistan ka....

    Hamara BSF ka attack hi nahi sambal pa rahe ho... wait till orders come, this time we will enter inside and cross the LoC openly and take out your posts....

    Rokh sake tho rokhlo... but don't cry and run for the help of the Saudi wahabis.... if u r so brave face us yourself rather than taking help of the Saudis and amerika....
     
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  18. sesha_maruthi27

    sesha_maruthi27 Senior Member Senior Member

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    We Indians invaded pakistan during the 1971 war......

    What is the big deal in invading pakistan...... :pound: :pound: :pound:

    And i wonder why this takle chashmish Peer ZADA is threatening India saying pakistan is a nuclear power and have a first strike policy..... :confused:
     
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  19. sesha_maruthi27

    sesha_maruthi27 Senior Member Senior Member

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    We Indians invaded pakistan during the 1971 war......

    What is the big deal in invading pakistan...... :pound: :pound: :pound:

    And i wonder why this takle chashmish Peer ZADA is threatening India saying pakistan is a nuclear power and have a first strike policy..... :confused:
     
  20. sesha_maruthi27

    sesha_maruthi27 Senior Member Senior Member

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    I request the mods to delete my double post as the time to edit has elapsed for me to delete it...
     
  21. farhan_9909

    farhan_9909 Tihar Jail Banned

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    Oh teri..itna gussa?

    sir jii indians ho.apkay sath gussa ni balke slavery maza krti hay..i means suit krti hay like your ancestors :rofl:
     

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