US thinks the unthinkable: asking Iran for help with supply routes

Discussion in 'West Asia & Africa' started by LETHALFORCE, Feb 27, 2009.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5805172.ece


    US thinks the unthinkable: asking Iran for help with supply routes

    t has been a grim couple of weeks for the snack lovers of Camp Phoenix. First Doritos, then Snickers, now Coca-Cola: all have disappeared from the usually packed shelves of the camp store. They were among the more expendable supplies lost when the Pakistani Taleban set fire to containers bound for US bases in Afghanistan close to the Khyber Pass.

    The denuded shelves underline a far more serious problem for the US: how to fuel the military effort in Afghanistan in the face of diminishing regional leverage and growing opposition from neighbours.

    Weeks of attacks by the Taleban on convoys from Karachi to the Khyber Pass and the decision by Kyrgyzstan to close the only US airbase in the region have left the US scrambling to find new routes at the very moment it is planning an influx of 17,000 troops.

    The search has taken the US right into the backyard of Russia, in Central Asia. Yesterday Uzbekistan confirmed that it would allow non-military cargo bound for Afghanistan to be transported through its territory. President Berdymukhamedov of Turkmenistan also said that his country would be willing to give passage to humanitarian cargo. In return he is likely to expect the volume to be lowered on the dubious human rights record of his country.

    What Washington has yet to prise out of Central Asia, however, is a permanent base such as the one it stands to lose at Manas after Russia offered $2 billion (£1.5 billion) in aid to Kyrgyzstan.

    “Russia views Central Asia as its unique sphere of influence,” Alex Neill, an Asia analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said. “It doesn’t want Nato there any more than it wants them in Eastern Europe.”

    Russia has also agreed to allow its territory to be used for the transit of non-military supplies to Afghanistan.

    “The prospect of failure in Afghanistan has made the relationship between Russia and Nato more businesslike,” Christopher Langton, a senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said.

    The land route in effect gives Russia control of a critical supply corridor. Earlier this month President Medvedev said that Moscow was ready for “fully-fledged, comprehensive co-operation” on Afghanistan but went on to imply that its help was contingent on US concessions on Nato expansion and US plans for a missile defence system in Eastern Europe.

    Islamabad’s capitulation to the Taleban over the Swat Valley has raised fears that the Pakistan route, which accounts for 75 per cent of supplies, could soon be closed.

    “The Taleban know if they make a pincer movement they can choke off that access completely,” Mr Neill said. “The options for the US are closing rapidly.”

    That is why, for the first time, people are thinking the unthinkable: Iran. Last week a US Nato commander said that individual member countries could seek supply routes through Iran.

    The US, when it went into Afghanistan, did not predict the turn of events in Pakistan. The search for new roads may force it to entertain alliances every bit as unexpected.


    When you have few friends left you look for friendship amongst your enemies.
     
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  3. rock45

    rock45 Founding Member/ RIP our friend

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    Blown away

    I am just blown away by even the thought of this as would most Americans. I rather keep up the missile and bombing attacks in Pakistan and focus on the root of the problem. More pressure is needed I say make them feel safe and that little area and hit them hard.
     
  4. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    US is hesitant to attack iran after threats for years iran has money and backing of russia and china, but would iran agree?
     
  5. rock45

    rock45 Founding Member/ RIP our friend

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    Backing

    Hi LETHALFORCE
    Not sure if Iran has such backing across the boards. China needs markets for it's good Iran is still a risk and is look down upon by much of the world as a terrorist supporter and basically an unstable government/country. Iran's oil and gas industry is still suffering the effects of non western Companies keeping up their equipment and tech needed to run their oil & gas industry. Export totals are down and getting worse it could be run better and more efficient.

    Venezuela's in the same boat totals are down soon the wells, pipelines, and refineries will begin suffer.

    China's economy is so big that selling 100 advance fighters and other weapons to Iran would be child's play compared to what their goods are worth in American markets, thus the reason for no large arm sales to Iran.

    The bottom line is they make more off their exports then selling a bunch of fighters that would only get shot down anyway by the Americans and made to look bad. What they would gain wouldn't be worth it, basically its the same thing with Russia.

    Russia and US are huge trading partners as well why would risk big business a lousy $4 or $6 billion dollar Su-30/Mig-29/ten year old S-300 sales be worth losing six times as much? Iran's a bad risk in general.

    Pakistan falls into the same bad risk group maybe worse, look at China slowly stepping away and this shows in cut loans and aide. Wait 3, 5 years from now when goods traveling Pakistan aren't deem safe (like there safe now) and soon that spreads to the ports, Pakistan going toward a bad place. And no amount of bad religion is going to save it. If I were India's government I would look to triple all bases, border guard units, fences, walls, anything to put something between you and them because it's only going to get worse.

    And when the bad has no place to go internally it goes outward.

    For all of Iran's oil money and gas money, Iran produces a lot of natural gas as well,it's military is basic with no new major purchases in years. Russia and China to hold face make like their standing up to the big and bad Americans and deal a little with Iran but end there are no hundreds of Chinese semi modern advance fighters or rumored Mig-31's, just homemade F-5 paste-on. Iran's a little better tech wise then most in the region but that's not really saying much.
     
  6. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    -Iran is a nuclear power and very little can be done now this will be a permanent threat for US interests in the middle east and for Israel, no matter what USA does a nuke is a nuke and Iran has them, Iran recently launched a satellite which is a message for USA that they have ICBM capability, even if USA can block 90% of iranian nukes the 10% that get thru will be more than enough to cause extensive damage USA is scaird they are talking to Iran now and Iran did not approach them. Iran also became nuclear with USA on both sides of them iraq and afghanistan, it's better for India to keep good relations with Iran and maybe even do some arms deals or mutual beneficial things, to be only on USA's side will be a losing proposition for India,we lost IPI pipeline from US pressure and maybe losing more in trade deals just to keep US happy and gain little ;also the shiite groups Iran backs have already defeated Israel in the lebanon ground war so Iran is much more clever and stronger than USA would like.
     
  7. rock45

    rock45 Founding Member/ RIP our friend

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    * Do you see the shiite overrunning Israel you must watch too much of the shit worthless news service. You know the one where they chopped off heads of nurse, red cross workers and so on. Where they look up to the people who killed so many in India. Do you really believe that shit, that Israel if they wanted couldn't just take the whole thing? Your kidding are you that brain washed? Do you think Israel lost the 73 war to? Google it you may learn something but first asked some religious person to tell you what really happen first, that way you get it right. Its political pressure holding Israel back mainly because they hide among the locals.

    Following the outsiders is working out so well for them in the West Bank and Gaza. Maybe they should follow them again for another 30 years since its working so well and they defeated Israel and all.
     
  8. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    * Are the bases up and they members of the Shanghai Corp yet?

    http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZ...embership in Shanghai Organization considered

    here is a link this is the most recent event from a week ago, the shanghai orp would provide an umbrella of defense one that they would not otherwise have

    * They billions add up to much more and spread out into different parts of China economy

    selling weapons to Iran would not make any difference to China what US thinks China does give weapons to Iraqi insurgents,taliban and darfur wars

    http://www.hyscience.com/archives/2007/09/chinese_still_s.php

    http://nakdtruth.wordpress.com/2008.../china-supplying-arms-in-the-darfur-conflict/

    and crude chinese weapons along with Russian weapons gave hell to USA in Korea and vietnam and US still made them an strategic trade partner afterwards why?


    triple aid to Pakistan
    http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5icIkXd8owgHAwNwvkYIZ8N_hSUhA


    Launching some cheap satellite is not the same as guiding a device onto a target half way around the world. Who tells you that its the same capability as launch a ICBM?

    all the ICBM initially were space launch vehicles especially in the 1950 and 1960's for more info check my thread here

    http://defenceforum.in/forum/showthread.php?t=258
     
  9. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    * You wonder why smart governments don't want lunatics controlling nukes. Let me ask you is killing 100% of them a trade off?

    the smart government did n't do anything to pakistan that proliferated most of the technology AQ Khan was not even questioned that's what the smart governments did, and pakistan has always claimed they have the Islamic bomb and it was AQ khan's dream all islamic nations have nukes and made Iran's possible to start, and by the way pakistan is a most favorite ally of the smart nation (im an american). this always puzzled me because the jewish lobby in USA is very strong and they have a threat they never had before, and North korea gained missiles
    to threaten USA 's pacific ally Japan in one shot pakistani roliferation directly impacted 2 allies and nothing was done.


    For all of Iran's oil money and gas money, Iran produces a lot of natural gas as well,it's military is basic with no new major purchases in years. Russia and China to hold face make like their standing up to the big and bad Americans and deal a little with Iran but end there are no hundreds of Chinese semi modern advance fighters or rumored Mig-31's, just homemade F-5 paste-on. Iran's a little better tech wise then most in the region but that's not really saying much.
    * you didn't comment on this section?

    this is true but you are forgetting the hundreds of Russian scientist working in the Iranian nuclear program and there is huge pressure on russia to prevent arm sales to Iran which has been working to a point.

    My President said he would open talks can't say I agree with him but he doesn't ask me. Scare? scare of what of Iran? Russia and US even at the height of the cold war were start enough never to use nukes, tell me you feel the same way about Iran having them?

    It is natural to be scaird of any crazies with a nuke; and dialogue is an approach that the Bush government should have had all along(i am a republican)


    * What are you trying to say the US couldn't take them out if we wanted to? This is a military forum right? B1, B2, about 300+ aircraft in the region, forty ships armed with missiles? the list goes on. Any fixed location can be a target its not taken out for political reasons nothing more, I'm sure the military would have wanted to do it a long time ago. What would stop the US forces a few 25 years F-14s with Hawk missile? Its political pure and simple ties to business, trade and oil.

    we had an opportunity to take them out but we didn't to me it's a mistake and a n opportunity lost that we mat never have again, to me Iran should have been the priority even before Iraq, now Middle east investment pullout of US would stop Iran from being bombed and Obama won't do it.

    I'm sure that's going to work out for you good as long as you don't do anything to any shiite groups anytime in the future. When India usefulness is used up you become the enemy your non believers, wake up there worse then Pakistan and have been for 20 plus years.

    India dosen't need to be best buddies with Iran just things that serve our interest would be ok

    I guess were a little anti-American still pissed off we back Pakistan during the cold war, get over it, its 20 or 30 years ago in past. I'm American and I can tell you if I was given a vote I would have pick India. Pakistan was on one of their USSR borders at the time nothing more nothing less. You think we love them or something?

    I am a gulf war vet so my anti american sentiment has to do with India not gaining anything in return the nuke deal dosen't immediately answer our energy needs but it's still good



    Do you see the shiite overrunning Israel you must watch too much of the shit worthless news service. You know the one where they chopped off heads of nurse, red cross workers and so on. Where they look up to the people who killed so many in India. Do you really believe that shit, that Israel if they wanted couldn't just take the whole thing? Your kidding are you that brain washed? Do you think Israel lost the 73 war to? Google it you may learn something but first asked some religious person to tell you what really happen first, that way you get it right. Its political pressure holding Israel back mainly because they hide among the locals.


    Shiites will never reach that point but the lebanon ground war was a total disater and none of the military objectives were achieved of creating a buffer zone for example, Israel had trouble only because it was a guerilla war as far as Israeli military goes it is the best in the middle east (and always will be)

    Following the outsiders is working out so well for them in the West Bank and Gaza. Maybe they should follow them again for another 30 years since its working so well and they defeated Israel and all.


    Gaza will never be like lebanon my point was shiites achieved something that sunnis have not been able too for decades to them it was a victory of sorts
    Rock I like your replies hope to have more interaction with you in the future. Take care buddy.
     
  10. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Iranian possible ICBM threat

    http://www.shaps.hawaii.edu/security/nie99msl.html

    Iran. Iran is the next hostile country most capable of testing an ICBM capable of delivering a weapon to the United States during the next 15 years.

    *

    Iran could test an ICBM that could deliver a several-hundred kilogram payload to many parts of the United States in the latter half of the next decade, using Russian technology and assistance.
    *

    Iran could pursue a Taepodong-type ICBM. Most analysts believe it could test a three-stage ICBM patterned after the Taepodong-1 SLV or a three-stage Taepodong-2-type ICBM, possibly with North Korean assistance, in the next few years.
    *

    Iran is likely to test an SLV by 2010 that--once developed--could be converted into an ICBM capable of delivering a several-hundred kilogram payload to the United States.

    *

    Analysts differ on the likely timing of Iran's first flight test of an ICBM that could threaten the United States. Assessments include:

    --likely before 2010 and very likely before 2015 (noting that an SLV with ICBM capabilities will probably be tested within the next few years);

    --no more than an even chance by 2010 and a better than even chance by 2015;

    --and less than an even chance by 2015.
     
  11. rock45

    rock45 Founding Member/ RIP our friend

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    Different views

    Hi LETHALFORCE
    First off I want to apologize for my anti-American comment sorry you didn't deserve that. I went off before really reading what your words said. I to look forward to more interaction as well.
     

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