US miscalculates China military growth

Discussion in 'China' started by LETHALFORCE, Apr 6, 2012.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    US miscalculates China military growth: study

    The United States has underestimated the growth of China's military as policymakers have taken public statements at face value or failed to understand Beijing's thinking, a study said Thursday.

    The report prepared for the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission said the United States had a mixed record on predicting the rising power's new weaponry, including largely missing the emergence of more advanced submarines.

    As for the speed of military modernization, the study found "identifiable cases of miscalculation" with China developing anti-ship ballistic missiles and stealth fighter-jets earlier than the United States expected.

    US analysis could have improved if more experts read Chinese or even looked at open publications such as academic technical journals, it said.

    "US observers should not take at face value statements from the Chinese government on military policy, as they could either be deceptive, or simply issued by agencies" such as the foreign ministry "that have no real say over military matters," it said.

    The staff report was prepared for the Commission, which was set up by Congress in 2000 to assess security implications from China, and does not represent the view of the body or of the US government.

    The study said that US experts "may have failed to fully appreciate the extent to which the Chinese leadership views the United States as a fundamental threat to China's security."

    It said that China's views were "inflamed" by incidents including the 1999 bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, which the United States said was accidental, and the US show of naval force near Taiwan in 1996 after Beijing's missile tests.

    The study said that US experts assumed in the late 1990s that China would never catch up militarily to the United States and would put a low priority on its defense industry compared with other parts of the economy.

    "A decade on, it is now clear that much of the conventional wisdom about China dating from the turn of the century has proven to be dramatically wrong," it said.

    "To avoid being similarly caught off-guard in 2022, US analysts should carefully reexamine many of their widely held assumptions about the Chinese government and its policy goals," it said.

    China said its military spending will top $100 billion in 2012, the latest sharp increase. While many experts believe its actual spending is much higher, it remains far below the $613 billion requested by the US Defense Department for fiscal year 2013.
     
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  3. W.G.Ewald

    W.G.Ewald Defence Professionals/ DFI member of 2 Defence Professionals

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  4. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    The problem I wonder if they miscalculated.

    Probably the US wanted to cash in on the cheap goods and buoy up their own domestic requirement.

    In the bargain, China played up the so called Peaceful Rise, and became the Juggernaut that it has become.

    If one looks at the Annual Reports to the Congress, it shows that they were aware of what was going on.

    It is the same thing with Pakistan.

    The US is aware that they (Pakistan) are Rogues, but they (the US) have to play it by the ear to achieve its aims.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2012
  5. panduranghari

    panduranghari Senior Member Senior Member

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    US played China. They did not allow China to join WTO not until 2000. And when China eagerly joined they ended up with excessive production capacity and now the necessity to source raw materials to keep the game going. This lead to China becoming a eye sore for the world...i.e China coming and buying things everywhere. This necessitated China to increase their defence spending to project might to permit the procurement of these raw materials.

    The missing link is how long will the current financial system goes on to permit this expansion of China and how will US cope?
     
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