sayareakd
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An inadvertent tip-off from American intelligence in 2008 prompted the alternate narrative below.
[It has been decided to re-post this article due to the positive success of the house arrest operation described below. This post has been revised with due respect to the US and Pakistani governments.]
Why do we trust President Obama's narrative of Osama bin Laden's final years?
Do you accept parts or all of the following narrative or accept America's unlikely narrative that the US had no idea where bin Laden was from the time he left Tora Bora in late 2001 to the time the US "discovered" his whereabouts in late 2010?
Relations between the Pakistani leadership, military and intelligence are complex. Pakistani politics should not be tendentiously simplified by official statements from Washington, DC. Pakistan has pride and its own unique structure of diverse interests.
A former, though recent, head of Indian foreign intelligence (RAW) estimated the following in 2011 "Do you know how many intelligence operatives work for America inside Pakistan? "¦There are around 3,000 [three thousand] intelligence operatives helping Americans collect information." 'If US kept Pak in dark, ties will go for a toss' - Rediff.com India News This indicates the depth of US intelligence coverage of Pakistan with the likelihood of some close US intelligence relations with some Pakistani intelligence officers. This comprehensive intelligence coverage of Pakistan (not to mention sigint) is one reason why the US would very likely been well aware where bin Laden was imprisoned from 2005. Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad compound - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia .
My alternate narrative is that bin Laden was arrested by the Pakistani intelligence and in 2005. From 2005 bin Laden was in most respects a prisoner under house arrest behind the high walls of the compound in Abbottabad. Regarding the Pakistan - US security and political principle of house arrest there were some significant parallels with the house arrest of another famous figure, A Q Khan The Brink of War: Unstable Pakistan Has US on Edge - SPIEGEL ONLINE .
While bin Laden was living in Abbottabad from 2005 al Qaeda communications in the Abbottabad area, bin Laden's laptop use and written messages would have been monitored by Pakistan and later also by the US. It is notable that Abbottabad was the site of a major British signals intercept base during WWII. This makes it quite possible that Pakistan maintained/maintains legacy intercept facilities in Abbottabad. Such facilities may be within the Military Academy grounds a short distance from where the (now removed) compound stood. Certainly bin Laden would have been monitored from the Observation Post set up in a house near the Abbottabad compound – not from 2010 but from 2005.
Bin Laden would have been conscious of the likelihood that Pakistan was intercepting messages to and from the rest of al Qaeda. As a man of the world he would have expected that Pakistan was passing most or all of these messages to American intelligence.
It is no coincidence that this passage of al Qaeda information to American intelligence permitted the West to head off all major al Qaeda attacks on Western countries from late 2005.
This is not meant to be a criticism of the US or Pakistan. In fact if it is accurate it was an excellent intelligence gathering operation which also had a covert action component, that is the disruption of the al Qaeda grouping for five and a half years.
It must be remembered that bin Laden valued his own life and his immediate family's (including the wives and children who stayed with him in Abbottabad). When he was arrested in 2005 he realised he was living on borrowed time - that his death sentence had been postponed by the US and Pakistan.
Put another way the US and Pakistan realised that bin Laden was of more use being kept quietly alive up to 2011 rather than killing him before that. The US wanted him alive while they could gain useful intelligence from him. The US also relied on the disruptive effects of having the increasingly isolated, hence increasingly ineffectual, bin Laden under house arrest.
Senior figures in Pakistani intelligence as well as the peak Pakistani leadership would have been politically embarrassed if it was known that bin Laden, who was admired by many In Pakistan, was locked up in their country. Following the execute bin Laden operation US criticism of Pakistan (and Pakistani criticism of the US) should be seen as overt posturing required to obscure the reality of US-Pakistani cooperation.
While officially Saudi Arabia had shunned bin Laden he was actually held in high esteem by many Saudi's who were impressed with his anti-Western (anti "infidel") stand. Within Saudi Arabia the handful of officials in the know wanted bin Laden kept alive. He was admired by many in Saudi Arabia especially within the extensive bin Laden clan, which is very influential in Saudi Arabia.
By early 2011 bin Laden's al Qaeda subordinates who were aware of his house arrest would have become increasingly suspicious and demoralised the longer he remained immobile in Abbottabad. They would have communicated with him less and relied on him less. With this decline bin Laden's intelligence value to the US and Pakistan of keeping him alive also declined.
However the political value, to President Obama, of "finding" and killing bin Laden on Obama's watch would have increased. The execution of bin Laden cemented the image Obama sought of being seen as tough and effective on terrorism. President Obama also sought and seeks to expunge any perception among US voters that he has any Islamic leanings that stem from his Muslim name, Barack Hussein Obama.
By early 2011 Saudi Arabia (occupied with internal political tension generated by the Arab Spring Arab Spring - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ) would have been in a weakened political position to push that bin Laden be kept alive.
Pakistan's leadership could not (and still can't) admit that Pakistan was cooperating with the US in keeping bin Laden under house arrest for so long. This was partially due to the respect for bin Laden amongst many in in Pakistan. Bin Laden represented so many things important to them, including his religious piety and as a type of Caliphate nationalist leader prepared to stand up against what he saw as a West seeking to dominate the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It was politically useful for the US leadership to at last carry out the death sentence in May 2011. Bin Laden actually expected that he would be eventually executed due to his admitted leadership role in 9/11.
It is hoped that this alternate narrative is more plausible than the official American story that the US (with its extensive intelligence assets) was simply ignorant about where bin Laden was from December 2001 to late 2010.
So this is not another anti-American theory. All credit to the Pakistani leaders, Pakistani intelligence, President Bush, President Obama and American intelligence for keeping this excellent intelligence operation so secret for so long. To any who doubt that such a major intelligence operation can be kept secret for so long it is suggested they look into the history of the highly successful World War Two Anglo - US, Ultra - Enigma - Purple Operation Ultra - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia .
The result of this six year "Operation House Arrest" was that the intelligence gathered and disruption inflicted prevented al Qaeda from carrying out any major terrorist acts in Western countries from late to 2005 to the present day.
AUSI OSINT: The US Knew Where bin Laden was from 2005
[It has been decided to re-post this article due to the positive success of the house arrest operation described below. This post has been revised with due respect to the US and Pakistani governments.]
Why do we trust President Obama's narrative of Osama bin Laden's final years?
Do you accept parts or all of the following narrative or accept America's unlikely narrative that the US had no idea where bin Laden was from the time he left Tora Bora in late 2001 to the time the US "discovered" his whereabouts in late 2010?
Relations between the Pakistani leadership, military and intelligence are complex. Pakistani politics should not be tendentiously simplified by official statements from Washington, DC. Pakistan has pride and its own unique structure of diverse interests.
A former, though recent, head of Indian foreign intelligence (RAW) estimated the following in 2011 "Do you know how many intelligence operatives work for America inside Pakistan? "¦There are around 3,000 [three thousand] intelligence operatives helping Americans collect information." 'If US kept Pak in dark, ties will go for a toss' - Rediff.com India News This indicates the depth of US intelligence coverage of Pakistan with the likelihood of some close US intelligence relations with some Pakistani intelligence officers. This comprehensive intelligence coverage of Pakistan (not to mention sigint) is one reason why the US would very likely been well aware where bin Laden was imprisoned from 2005. Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad compound - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia .
My alternate narrative is that bin Laden was arrested by the Pakistani intelligence and in 2005. From 2005 bin Laden was in most respects a prisoner under house arrest behind the high walls of the compound in Abbottabad. Regarding the Pakistan - US security and political principle of house arrest there were some significant parallels with the house arrest of another famous figure, A Q Khan The Brink of War: Unstable Pakistan Has US on Edge - SPIEGEL ONLINE .
While bin Laden was living in Abbottabad from 2005 al Qaeda communications in the Abbottabad area, bin Laden's laptop use and written messages would have been monitored by Pakistan and later also by the US. It is notable that Abbottabad was the site of a major British signals intercept base during WWII. This makes it quite possible that Pakistan maintained/maintains legacy intercept facilities in Abbottabad. Such facilities may be within the Military Academy grounds a short distance from where the (now removed) compound stood. Certainly bin Laden would have been monitored from the Observation Post set up in a house near the Abbottabad compound – not from 2010 but from 2005.
Bin Laden would have been conscious of the likelihood that Pakistan was intercepting messages to and from the rest of al Qaeda. As a man of the world he would have expected that Pakistan was passing most or all of these messages to American intelligence.
It is no coincidence that this passage of al Qaeda information to American intelligence permitted the West to head off all major al Qaeda attacks on Western countries from late 2005.
This is not meant to be a criticism of the US or Pakistan. In fact if it is accurate it was an excellent intelligence gathering operation which also had a covert action component, that is the disruption of the al Qaeda grouping for five and a half years.
It must be remembered that bin Laden valued his own life and his immediate family's (including the wives and children who stayed with him in Abbottabad). When he was arrested in 2005 he realised he was living on borrowed time - that his death sentence had been postponed by the US and Pakistan.
Put another way the US and Pakistan realised that bin Laden was of more use being kept quietly alive up to 2011 rather than killing him before that. The US wanted him alive while they could gain useful intelligence from him. The US also relied on the disruptive effects of having the increasingly isolated, hence increasingly ineffectual, bin Laden under house arrest.
Senior figures in Pakistani intelligence as well as the peak Pakistani leadership would have been politically embarrassed if it was known that bin Laden, who was admired by many In Pakistan, was locked up in their country. Following the execute bin Laden operation US criticism of Pakistan (and Pakistani criticism of the US) should be seen as overt posturing required to obscure the reality of US-Pakistani cooperation.
While officially Saudi Arabia had shunned bin Laden he was actually held in high esteem by many Saudi's who were impressed with his anti-Western (anti "infidel") stand. Within Saudi Arabia the handful of officials in the know wanted bin Laden kept alive. He was admired by many in Saudi Arabia especially within the extensive bin Laden clan, which is very influential in Saudi Arabia.
By early 2011 bin Laden's al Qaeda subordinates who were aware of his house arrest would have become increasingly suspicious and demoralised the longer he remained immobile in Abbottabad. They would have communicated with him less and relied on him less. With this decline bin Laden's intelligence value to the US and Pakistan of keeping him alive also declined.
However the political value, to President Obama, of "finding" and killing bin Laden on Obama's watch would have increased. The execution of bin Laden cemented the image Obama sought of being seen as tough and effective on terrorism. President Obama also sought and seeks to expunge any perception among US voters that he has any Islamic leanings that stem from his Muslim name, Barack Hussein Obama.
By early 2011 Saudi Arabia (occupied with internal political tension generated by the Arab Spring Arab Spring - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia ) would have been in a weakened political position to push that bin Laden be kept alive.
Pakistan's leadership could not (and still can't) admit that Pakistan was cooperating with the US in keeping bin Laden under house arrest for so long. This was partially due to the respect for bin Laden amongst many in in Pakistan. Bin Laden represented so many things important to them, including his religious piety and as a type of Caliphate nationalist leader prepared to stand up against what he saw as a West seeking to dominate the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It was politically useful for the US leadership to at last carry out the death sentence in May 2011. Bin Laden actually expected that he would be eventually executed due to his admitted leadership role in 9/11.
It is hoped that this alternate narrative is more plausible than the official American story that the US (with its extensive intelligence assets) was simply ignorant about where bin Laden was from December 2001 to late 2010.
So this is not another anti-American theory. All credit to the Pakistani leaders, Pakistani intelligence, President Bush, President Obama and American intelligence for keeping this excellent intelligence operation so secret for so long. To any who doubt that such a major intelligence operation can be kept secret for so long it is suggested they look into the history of the highly successful World War Two Anglo - US, Ultra - Enigma - Purple Operation Ultra - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia .
The result of this six year "Operation House Arrest" was that the intelligence gathered and disruption inflicted prevented al Qaeda from carrying out any major terrorist acts in Western countries from late to 2005 to the present day.
AUSI OSINT: The US Knew Where bin Laden was from 2005
