US Denies Transfer of Critical Technology and F-16 Fighter Production in India

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He might be talking about Mirage Upgrade cost , not operating cost.
AFAIK, RAFALEs lie in the list of world's fighters which have lowest operating cost.
RAFALEs have high price tags but they are cheaper in long run.
i know the difference between annual operating expense and upgrade costs...

mirage correctly remember was twice that of mki....

i will post .....

and i belive in papers on the table of the house put by ministry rather then blogers posts on the net ..
 

Tarun Kumar

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My view is that without TOT, F16IN will be roughly200-220 million a piece compared to USD250million for rafale. Buy 40 Su30MKI immediately and wait for few years when rafale production stabilizes and then order 100-150 rafales at a lower sticker price. Neither F16 nor Grippen make sense if their key parts will be produced in US. Costwise we will end up with spending USD30billion on 150 F16s when we can buy same number of rafales for same price. Grippen is a no no as latest version is as expensive as rafale with only 1 engine.
 

Arihant

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My view is that without TOT, F16IN will be roughly200-220 million a piece compared to USD250million for rafale. Buy 40 Su30MKI immediately and wait for few years when rafale production stabilizes and then order 100-150 rafales at a lower sticker price. Neither F16 nor Grippen make sense if their key parts will be produced in US. Costwise we will end up with spending USD30billion on 150 F16s when we can buy same number of rafales for same price. Grippen is a no no as latest version is as expensive as rafale with only 1 engine.
Please calculate
€3.42 billion is for the cost of the platform; another €1.8 billion is for support and infrastructure supplies; €1.7 billion will be spent to meet India-specific changes on the aircraft; €710 million is the additional weapons package; and €353 million is the cost of performance-based logistics support.
when there will be new order for rafale, you don't have to pay for changes.
 

IndianHawk

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My view is that without TOT, F16IN will be roughly200-220 million a piece compared to USD250million for rafale. Buy 40 Su30MKI immediately and wait for few years when rafale production stabilizes and then order 100-150 rafales at a lower sticker price. Neither F16 nor Grippen make sense if their key parts will be produced in US. Costwise we will end up with spending USD30billion on 150 F16s when we can buy same number of rafales for same price. Grippen is a no no as latest version is as expensive as rafale with only 1 engine.
Nobody reads my posts it seems.:smash:

Rafale can only have two roles in the IAF
A) nuclear delivery
B) replace mirage Jaguar.

It is not a replacement for MIGs so we need single engine fighters to replace all MIGs 21,27.

A two engine plane requires heavy maintenance and also is much more costly to operate. Bulk of our air Force must be single engine. Unless we become a rich nation with percapita GDP equal to USA .

That is why f16 and rafale are not interchangeable. Although we must diss f16 for lca.
 

TPFscopes

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i know the difference between annual operating expense and upgrade costs...

mirage correctly remember was twice that of mki....

i will post .....

and i belive in papers on the table of the house put by ministry rather then blogers posts on the net ..
Waiting for the claimed data....
 

hit&run

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That was worth a try.

Every business deal brings in opportunity to negotiate.

This is a good news that Indian government has taken a stand and disclose the reason why this deal would not go ahead.

Jerk who will see it as some kind of set back are usual skeptics who would have opposed it in any case.
 

TPFscopes

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able to find for mirage

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=97687


you try for mki , ....bahut mahnat karatey ho tum log.....will post that too...
acha ho ki mai kuch na hi likhu....vishwas to hai nahi...
Dude, its not actually what you're claiming for.
Also, the above link doesn't belongs to Parrikar era.

Its better to believe on actual facts rather than some fabricated facts.

Request you to post data which states that the Operational cost of Mirage is greater than Su-30MKI (in ₹/hr)

Note: also request you not to be personal.
 

Vijyes

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IAF generals wants Gripen. Once it gets Gripen; slowly but surely lobbyist will make sure that Tejas is killed or rendered mere R&D project like Arjun tanks(kill your competition). This will not happen overnight but slowly propaganda will be run to highlight even minuscule deficiencies in Tejas. Better thing will be give IAF what it does not want i.e some F16 off the shelf & see if they remain committed to LCA/Tejas. Gripen is bigger competition in SE segment than older F16's in longer run.

Don't want to wait another 15-20 years to see indigenous AC with high numbers. We will be seeing same challenges with AMCA as well with proven fifth generation fighters flying post 2030. So better do the hardwork now rather than later.
Only mentally unsound ministers and officials will believe in propaganda. They will ask directly for test results. Why will anyone other than dumb common man believe in propaganda? The congress was controlled by ISI man - Ahmad Patel and hence was purposefully spreading such bullshit as a cover to import and destroy Indian defence and economy
 

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Dude, its not actually what you're claiming for.
Also, the above link doesn't belongs to Parrikar era.

Its better to believe on actual facts rather than some fabricated facts.

Request you to post data which states that the Operational cost of Mirage is greater than Su-30MKI (in ₹/hr)

Note: also request you not to be personal.
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=97687

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=112870

the avearge R&M cost per mirage comes at around 8 crores / year
the avearge R&M cost of mki during the same year comes at around 4 crores / year...

and sorry , but please do not get personal , i do not like this type of dud and fud language...
 

TPFscopes

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http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=97687

http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=112870

the avearge R&M cost per mirage comes at around 8 crores / year
the avearge R&M cost of mki during the same year comes at around 4 crores / year...
In the above mentioned post for Su-30MKI the cost of spares are not included because there was no such deal for spares was done during 2011-2013.
Also, the maintenance of jet is exponentially (in general) increased w.r.t. its age.
Along with this, non-consumable spares are not purchased every year. There might be no such purchase in 2013-2014 which significantly lower down your calculations.

Also, Guidelines for Estimating Direct Operating Costs :
https://www.aopa.org/go-fly/aircraf...stimating-direct-operating-costs-and-reserves


and sorry , but please do not get personal , i do not like this type of dud and fud language...
I'm just clarify the doubts raised.
Bro, I'm not getting personal in any form. You can serve your expertise here and you are welcomed for that.
 

square

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That was worth a try.

Every business deal brings in opportunity to negotiate.

This is a good news that Indian government has taken a stand and disclose the reason why this deal would not go ahead.

Jerk who will see it as some kind of set back are usual skeptics who would have opposed it in any case.
US defence industry is run by private players.......not easy to get tot from them untill they think they can't milk it anymore....
 

Vijyes

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In the above mentioned post for Su-30MKI the cost of spares are not included because there was no such deal for spares was done during 2011-2013.
Also, the maintenance of jet is exponentially (in general) increased w.r.t. its age.
Along with this, non-consumable spares are not purchased every year. There might be no such purchase in 2013-2014 which significantly lower down your calculations.

Also, Guidelines for Estimating Direct Operating Costs :
https://www.aopa.org/go-fly/aircraf...stimating-direct-operating-costs-and-reserves



I'm just clarify the doubts raised.
Bro, I'm not getting personal in any form. You can serve your expertise here and you are welcomed for that.
When you are asking for sources from him and he gave it to you, you should consider it properly. If you disagree, the onus now lies on you to provide source yourself. Do you have sources to back your words?
 

Adioz

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Explain something to me:-
IAF fleet timeline.png

If we follow this timeline given above, would we still need a stop-gap fighter?
The shortfall will continue for much of the next decade, but the shortfall will persist even if we order a "stop-gap" fighter like Gripen. Its too late for stop-gaps. We only need to concentrate on getting AMCA in SP mode by 2030. That and turning Su-57 to MKI once we start getting it in next couple of years. Production of Tejas will fill a lot of the gap, and Rafael can be ordered in fly-away condition from France. By 2032, we should be well stocked with one of the most modern jet fleets in the world.

P.S. I know that the timeline is ambitious, and risky. But that is all the more reason for the IAF to stop goofing around deals that drag on endlessly and make a stand. Or come 2035 and we will still have a major shortfall. OTOH, if this timeline gets screwed up by a late FGFA or late AMCA, we will still be much better off.
 

hit&run

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US defence industry is run by private players.......not easy to get tot from them untill they think they can't milk it anymore....
Everyone including me has been saying that, we must invest in R&D and it's a long and painful path to achieve self reliance. These lines are spoken 'ad-nauseam' that now it has become a cliche'.

One has to be a realist by looking at the whole picture.

Performance of these government organisations trying to produce a world beater fighter jet is visible to us.

No excuse or conspiracy can be hindrance to excellence.

The reference of China is given quite often but I have so far not seen anything they have produced using excellence of their own scientists. The kind of money they have spent for R&D would have made two or three medium size nations bankrupt. Even today they look at foreign vendors to help them out. There is not even a single main war fighting machine they have, that doesn't have foreign components or their intellectual input.

R&D is done for just heck of it; fun sake, not demand and supply sake or to meet the targets.

Indian students and scientists must be left alone with adequate funds and laboratories with prerequisite of best of the social security, high living standards and last but not not least a culture of science and logic inculcated by the schools.

Another can of worms is management of such projects. My cousin who is pursuing post graduate diploma from AUT in hospital management completely left one of his module on Hospital management in India as all the material he was provided was very critical. He said 'inke BC' I will fail but not write bad about India. Anyhow the point I am trying to make is that even having best of the management Schools and performing students we lack culture and infrastructure that audits or Industry and enterprise.

Without digressing much I conclude; except articles of strategic defence like Ballistic missiles, Nukes etc., every thing else must be procured/produced by private companies; contained by law of the land that binds them to the national interest.

In the mean time there has to be such out of the box efforts made where we must try our luck to pull out good deals, look for JV and ToTs. Also there must be transparency by part of governments otherwise its been said that we purchased ToT paying hefty amounts from Russia for many of our purchases that never came out in labs and much of it was never core or critical.
 
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IndianHawk

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If we follow this timeline given above, would we still need a stop-gap fighter?
It's not enough we have to immediately phase out mig 21 and 27 totalling some 330 planes.

Also by 2030 mirage and jags and mig 29 will have to be phased out that another 250 + planes. So total 580 something.

While we will be inducting 200 LCA+ 90fgfa + 90amca + 126 rafale according to this time line that's 506 planes .+ 40 more su30.

We will be 50-60 plane below our already depleted numbers.

Not to mention delays that will take place +
This will break the bank with fgfa and rafale costing approx 200 mil a plane each.

Amca won't be cheap either.

Also su30 mki will need upgrade cycle by 2020 so some numbers will need to be adjusted for these things.

Also like I said before this timeline is a top heavy configuration with majority of twin engine fighters. That will bankrupt iaf budget in operational maintainance costs and will leave nothing for next phase of capital expenditure.

What we need is 400+ single engine fighters.

That and turning Su-57 to MKI once we start getting it in next couple of years.
The plan right now is to design a new prototype based on PAKFA that means it will be mkized from the very beginning.
 
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TPFscopes

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When you are asking for sources from him and he gave it to you, you should consider it properly. If you disagree, the onus now lies on you to provide source yourself. Do you have sources to back your words?
Something for which I asked for sources Bcoz that something is claimed by him.
When there was no order done for su-30mki spares during mentioned years than how can I provide source for an incident which was not occurred.
 
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SanjeevM

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It seems like IAF personal do not visit our forums. Else they would have known that everyone is calling upon IAF to place more orders for IAF so that either HAL can increase production lines or hand over the production lines to TATA or other private companies.
 

TPFscopes

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Explain something to me:-
View attachment 18523
If we follow this timeline given above, would we still need a stop-gap fighter?
The shortfall will continue for much of the next decade, but the shortfall will persist even if we order a "stop-gap" fighter like Gripen. Its too late for stop-gaps. We only need to concentrate on getting AMCA in SP mode by 2030. That and turning Su-57 to MKI once we start getting it in next couple of years. Production of Tejas will fill a lot of the gap, and Rafael can be ordered in fly-away condition from France. By 2032, we should be well stocked with one of the most modern jet fleets in the world.

P.S. I know that the timeline is ambitious, and risky. But that is all the more reason for the IAF to stop goofing around deals that drag on endlessly and make a stand. Or come 2035 and we will still have a major shortfall. OTOH, if this timeline gets screwed up by a late FGFA or late AMCA, we will still be much better off.
There is still many doubts on AMCA & FGFA timelines and number of RAFALEs & LCA are Also reshuffled. I think the mentioned table belongs to someone's perception.

So as @IndianHawk already mentioned that IAF urgently need SE jet to fill that gap that will be created after the retirement of IAF's oldies. It can only be countered by increasing LCA order with up-throttled Production or by selecting another SE jet.
 

Tshering22

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Those friends backing HAL Tejas forget a major hitch; HAL simply won't expedite the production of Mk.2. The government will have to declare war on somebody in order to get these slowpokes to expedite the development and testing of Mk.2.

DPSUs know that IAF will buy from abroad if they delay and therefore there is little incentive for someone assured their salary for not winning business.

If U.S. cannot share critical technology, how they expect India to be a defence partner? Let U.S. fight it's own wars with China alone without support from India.

U.S. deserves partners like Pakistan who demand $$ even for entering the airspace. U.S. can never be a partner with India in future.

We are at loggerheads with China for Bhutan issue. Else we have no enmity with China. Once China accept Doval formula, there can be peace on border.

However the biggest loser will be U.S. No support to U.S. in Afghanistan or SCS or north Korea issue.
China and USA have a deal called the G-2.

It is not much discussed but is often trailed off as a distant proposal made by one party to the other. The truth is, US and China are only paper adversaries. Their showdown is only for public consumption whereas behind the scenes, they are eating away the share of global pie.

That's what the relationship of a 'frenemy' is.

There are a lot of examples that make them look otherwise:

1- Why did Trump sanction Russia? For interfering in elections? Bullshit! Russia's reliance on China is high since the US sanctioned them after Ukraine conflict. Americans know that fighting Russia head on will mean suicide for its position and destruction for the entire planet.

Why not hand it over to a supposed ally who eats up their unsuspecting partner piece by piece? China is that 'ally' of Russia who will penetrate deep into Russian economy, take control of its supply chains, manufacturing ecosystem, energy corridors and pipeline supplies, and then leave it heavily dependent.

That's one reason why Russia was keen to get us on the SCO panel; to dilute the Chinese influence.

Russia is as allied to China as we are to the Arab states, in reality.

Also, Russia remains the only 'thorn' on the side of both Chinese and Americans.

With a mellowed out Japan, a dependent ROK, a weak ASEAN union, Asia is China's for the taking.

2- If anything, US has been steadily backing off East Asia. As much as we would like to think that they want to do something about the global scenario, they are going to do nothing. Not because China has them by the balls but angering Chinese won't get them anywhere commercially.

The latest casualty of this piece-by-piece retraction has been Vietnam, whose supposed alliance with US got them nothing when Trump looked the other side and they had to give in to the Chinese demands. There is a reason why Taiwan is keen on drawing close to Japan and South Korea.

Abe of Japan was sharp to identify this trend even during Taro Aso's tenure when the spate of 'disputes' in East Asia started.

Despite his aggressive attempt to cast the yoke of US aside, his own government has been weakened due to political meddling by the US. While everything might look hunky dory on the top, things are not what they seem to be.

Why does East Asia suddenly look so cornered and isolated in front of a regional bully? Think.

Vietnam-Japan-Taiwan-Korea-Philippines.... connecting the dots paints a very different picture.

3- That only leaves Middle East where neither of them have any interest which overlap each other.

Asking help from China against USA and vice versa will get nobody anything.
 

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