US biggest perceived threat to PLA: China’s top military strategist

Discussion in 'China' started by youngindian, Apr 26, 2010.

  1. youngindian

    youngindian Senior Member Senior Member

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    Monday, April 26, 2010

    BEIJING - Rear Admiral Yang Yi has said US is the biggest perceived threat to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).


    Yang Yi was the former head of strategic studies at the PLA’s National University of Defence.

    Dissonance over cross-Strait relationship was the most likely trigger for a Sino-US nuclear war claimed Yi.

    About rivals Japan and India, the China daily quoted Yi as saying that while Japan does not have the ability, India is more worried about China.

    Yi suggested that Beijing should maintain healthy relations with Washington while at the same time covering for potential threats and pressures.

    “Fortunately, the risk of a Sino-US confrontation is decreasing due to the relaxation of the Taiwan question,” China Daily quoted Yi as saying. The Taiwan issue would be resolved politically not militarily, said Yi.

    “Those weapons will be ours sooner or later.” Said Yi of US arms sales to Taiwan, reflecting the PLA’s self assured stance regarding Taiwan.

    Yi first made spoke about the subject while addressing delegates at the US-China Government Executive Global Leadership Course last week. The 17-member US group included office directors of NASA, Department of Defence and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

    The comparative educational dialogue involving senior US officials is the first such interaction between Washington and Beijing.

    “A US navy official in charge of intelligence asked the question and he quickly responded that it was the same case for China about the US,” said course director Sun Zhe. He said that the frank communication by Yi should not be seen as a threat, and that it would help the two powers understand one another better, especially Beijing’s position on the Taiwan issue. (ANI)

    http://breakingnews.gaeatimes.com/2...-to-pla-chinas-top-military-strategist-23356/
     
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  3. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    China's new strategy

    For the past fifteen years or so, there's been a continuing debate on the likelihood of a serious rivalry between the United States and China. On one side are realists who believe that if China continues to increase its economic power, then significant security competition between the two countries is virtually inevitable. On the other side are those (mostly liberal) theorists who believe that the potential for trouble will be muted by economic interdependence and the socializing effects of China's growing participation in various international institutions. (This was Bill Clinton's rationale for getting China into the World Trade Organization, for example). And if China were to make a gradual transition to democracy, so the argument runs, then democratic peace theory will kick in and there's nothing to worry about.

    On Saturday, the New York Times published an important story supporting the realist view. It described the rapid expansion of China's naval capabilities (a classic manifestation of great power status), as well as the more ambitious new strategy that this growing capacity is designed to serve. Briefly, as China's economic power and dependence on overseas raw materials (e.g., oil) has grown, it is seeking to acquire the ability to protect its access. In practice, China's new strategy of "far sea defense" means acquiring the ability to project naval power into key ocean areas (including the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf), while denying other naval powers the ability to operate with impunity in areas close to China.

    Needless to say, this is precisely what realism would predict, and some prominent realists (e.g., my co-author John Mearsheimer) have already explained the logic behind this prediction very clearly. And the one country that shouldn't be at all surprised is the United States, because China appears to be doing something akin to what we did during the latter part of the 19th century. To be specific: Beijing is seeking to build its economy, then expand its military capacity, achieve a position of regional dominance, and then exclude other major powers from its immediate neighborhood.

    In the U.S. case, we expanded across North America ("Manifest Destiny") and other great powers to stay out of the Western hemisphere (the Monroe Doctrine). It took a long time before the United States was strong enough to enforce the latter idea, but eventually we could and we did. This position has been a huge strategic advantage ever since: not only is the United States the only great power that didn't have to worry about foreign invasion (because it had no great power rivals nearby), this position also allowed us to intervene all over the globe without having to devote much blood or treasure to defending our own shores.

    If you were a Chinese strategist, wouldn't you like to be in similar position? Ideally, you'd like to be the strongest power in East Asia and you wouldn't want any other great powers (like the United States) to have a major strategic role there. Achieving that goal is not easy, however, because China has some strong neighbors (Japan, India, Vietnam, etc.) and many Asian states already have close security ties with the United States.

    So here's what I'd expect to see over the next few decades. I'd expect China to speak softly (for the most part) while it builds a bigger stick. If they are smart, they won't throw their weight around too much lest they provoke more vigorous balancing behavior by their neighbors (and the United States). I would also expect them to continuing developing military capabilities designed to make it more dangerous for the United States to operate near China, and eventually build power projection capabilities that will complicate our operations in other areas that matter (like the Persian Gulf). At the same time, look for them to forge relations in some areas that have been traditional U.S. "spheres of interest," so that the United States has to devote more time and attention to these regions too. I'd expect them to play "divide-and-conquer" closer to home as well, and try to persuade some of their neighbors to distance themselves from Washington. Lastly, Beijing would dearly love to keep the United States bogged down in places like Afghanistan, distracted by disputes over Iran's nuclear program, and stymied by the interminable Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while they exploit the anti-American sentiments that these problems exacerbate and stay focused on the bigger picture. So don't expect a lot of help from them on those fronts.

    There are at least three caveats worth noting in this otherwise gloomy picture. First, as the Times article makes clear, China remains much weaker than the United States today, and it has a long way to go before it becomes a true "peer competitor." So there's no need for panic, just a timely and prudent response. The good news (such as it is) is that China's rise should make it relatively easy for the United States to stay on good terms with its current Asian allies.

    Second, Chinese economic growth is likely to slow in the years ahead, especially as its population ages and as its emerging middle class demands additional social benefits. This situation will force Beijing to make some hard choices about domestic and international priorities and may limit the speed with which economic might is translated into military power and overseas presence.

    Third, and most important, nothing I've said above implies that open war between the United States and China is inevitable. Nuclear deterrence is likely to keep the competition within bounds, and prudent and sensible diplomacy may be able to defuse or limit potential clashes of interest. Nonetheless, if China continues on the course laid out here, you should expect significant security competition between Washington and Beijing in the decades ahead. To expect anything else is . . . well . . . unrealistic.
     
  4. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    the word that "US biggest perceived threat to PLA" is as obvious as the earth is round. it is really unnecessary to make it the headline


    Instead, if some day, USA and CHina become friend as close as USA and UK, then it would be a piece of news.
     
  5. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    In fact, that day will come!
     
  6. indiansamurai

    indiansamurai New Member

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    China has a lot of hard power they should now focus on soft power to start with improving relationship with India
     

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