UP village prefers SP, BSP over BJP, Congress

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by parijataka, Sep 29, 2013.

  1. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    This should warm the cockles of Maya and Mulayam !

    UP village prefers SP, BSP over BJP, Congress

    It's a humid day and retired college principal Shobnath Pandey (77) is cooling off under an Ashok Tree (A tree of no sorrows).

    His village Khain, in the Trans-Yamuna region of this district, falls under the Bundelkhand Development Scheme. Yet, like much of the region, it is reeling under incessant power cuts, which have reduced water supply and hampered irrigation causing crops to dry, consequently, leading to heavy losses for farmers.

    "No party has been able to solve our basic problems. I have lived through the rule of all the parties. Now if you ask me which party, I will submit that I have become a nirashavawadi (pessimist). It’s smarter to pick a candidate who will work for your issues," Mr. Pandey says.

    Located on the Allahabad-Mirzapur highway, this tiny village is hardly representative of the mood in Uttar Pradesh. Its 6,000 odd population suffers from the same malaise that any other village in eastern UP would relate to: unemployment, bad roads, water shortage, insufficient power supply, crop failure and so on. But it could offer important lessons for the major parties ahead of next year's general elections.

    Across the village, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party are perceived to have weak regional structures and lacking in local reach and candidates. By the looks of things, if elections were held today in Khain, the SP would once again tussle it out with the Bahujan Samaj Party for the top spot, despite the growing discontent against Akhilesh Yadav's regime, especially on the miserable law and order issue. The villagers agree that law and order has always been a problem for the party, but the State government's waiver of farmer loans, free water for irrigation and free laptop schemes are fair consolation for them.

    No appeal for BJP

    The BJP, and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, are not seen with much favour. If Mr. Modi contests from here (Allahabad), "he will stand third," predicts Amitabh Pandey, an upper caste contractor. "Modi is a media creation, only on television. This 'wave,' if it exists, is restricted to cities. Ask around if you see any BJP wallahs? What Modi?" Regardless of Mr. Modi's much talked about entry into the State, which holds 80 Lok Sabha seats, villagers view the BJP as a wholly urban oriented party, with less "zamini netas" (ground level leaders).

    This is why they think senior BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi lost his Allahabad seat in 2004 after three consecutive terms. The two Lok Sabha seats in the district, Allahabad and Phulpur are currently held by the SP and BSP. The SP's Reoti Raman Singh has held the Allahabad seat since 2004. Notably, Mr. Joshi's wins coincided with the pro-BJP wave in 1990's post the Ram Mandir movement. "The party's popularity extended to the rural areas then," says Shobnath Pandey, also a former pradhan.

    This time, the villagers are not so sure. Even among the youth, there is little support for the BJP or for its prime ministerial candidate.

    For the main opposition party at the centre, which depends heavily on upper and upper middle caste and urban votes, the biggest challenge in UP remains the rural votes, feel analysts.

    The recent communal violence in Muzaffaragar has evoked debates on polarisation of votes, in favour of the BJP. But villagers of Khain are quick to brush aside that theory. The vice-like grip of caste and preference for local candidates neutralises any form of communal voting, villagers feel.

    "Communal politics may help you in the town. Here, people still give preference to caste. And the SP and the BSP look to retain these caste banks," says Mohanlal Yadav (40). On Mr. Modi, he quips: "There's no way you can compare him (Modi) to Vajpayee. He is not capable of leading the nation. UP will reject any form of dictatorship."

    Moreover, besides the Ram Mandir issue, the BJP has nothing that can appeal to rural UP, he feels.

    SP supporters brushed aside accusations that the SP and BJP are playing a "fixed match" for polarizing communal votes, blaming the latter entirely. "Gone are those days. Very few people will be fooled today. Even the most illiterate persons understand what the party (BJP) is trying to do," says Parashnath Patel.

    Congress lacks structure, but does better than BJP

    While the villagers are wary of the BJP and lack confidence in the Congress over issues like corruption and price rise, they would pick the latter over the former if it came down to the two parties. "Corruption", they feel, is a lesser evil than "communalism."

    Notably, the Congress has failed to win this seat in three decades since local boy and actor Amitabh Bachchan sealed it in 1984. The Allahabad and Phulpur seats have historically been political bastions for the Congress, with the likes of Jawaharlal Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri and Vishwanath Pratap Singh holding the seats for multiple terms. Now, media has been rife with reports that Mr. Modi could contest from a seat in UP, Allahabad being one of the possibilities.

    Dalits, landless and hoping for change, Muslims in dilemma

    The village has around 1,500 Dalits, most of them landless. While the majority serve as labourers, those with some capital are engaged in liquor trade, which extends beyond the periphery of this village. Santhulal Bharti, who sells liquor, points out various bighas of State land, which are lying unused. He is unhappy that the State has not allotted the land to the landless Dalits.

    "Without land and work, why won't we sell liquor? If we get to do some farming why will we do this work?" he asks.

    While the Dalits in the village aren't particularly unhappy with the SP, they feel the BSP will give them a better deal. In the last assembly elections, in Khain the SP secured 1,900 votes, BSP 427, Congress 38 and BJP 32. Khain has a fair population of landed Bhumihars, Brahmins, Thakurs Yadavs and Patels. The voters included 300 Muslims, who are faced with their usual dilemma of picking the candidate who can defeat the BJP candidate. Despite their mounting anger towards the SP, they will be cautious before voting for the Congress, unless it fields a "solid candidate." Some pockets of Muslims even picked the BSP ahead of the Congress.
     
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  3. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    The hindu and leftist crap what d u think they would print corruption is more devil then communalism.

    I wonder why most of IAS aspirants read hindu.

    I agree on one thing they would hardly gey votes in villages so they must pay attention to towns and small cities or 2-3 level cities
     
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  4. NSG_Blackcats

    NSG_Blackcats Member of The Month OCTOBER 2009 Senior Member

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    I am reading The Hindu for last 10 odd years and I would say its one the best Indian news paper. The editorial of any news paper can be a bit biased because it is based on the perception on that individual.

    May be what is reported above is true. Its a fact that Mayawati despite all the corruption is very popular because her attitude towards controlling criminals. You can talk to any Cab driver or shop owner from UP in Delhi/NCR and you can see it. But I guess BJP will improve its tally hugely in UP this time. Last time they won in 10 seats and came second in about 11 seats (the margin was less than 50,000).

    But in case of BJP it is and was always the cadres who won them election and not any particular leader. So lets see, we will get the results in less than 8 months. There are hundreds of instances where experts have gone wrong.
     
  5. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    With all the communal issues that have cropped up in UP and the lacklustre handling of the same, the Muslim vote will not be that convinced that SP can deliver.

    The moot point is that will it veer to BSP or the Congress.

    And this vote will be crucial to decide the winner.

    But then if the villagers understand NOTA, and exercise that, the result will be most interesting.

    The Dalit vote requires no second guessing!
     
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  6. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    Mate I think this time BSP and BJP will gain in Uttar Pradesh.
     
  7. drkrn

    drkrn Senior Member Senior Member

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    good.hindu never publishes news without proper ground work.their news is always credible.
     
  8. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Though a good newspaper.

    What about the coup report?

    What about what VK Singh's twitter stuff on the latest controversy where he speaks of Hindu?

    Good ground work?

    I think all papers have an agenda.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
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  9. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    What many informed commentators seem to be conveniently ignoring is the inexorable & irreversible migration of massive numbers from "villages" to "bigger towns" & "cities".

    The rural vote alone won't be the "sole" deciding factor for long.

    BSP, BJP & Congress (surprise !!! ) are set to make inroads in new territories beyond their traditional stronghold. SP & INLD would suffer the most.
     
  10. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    There has been another clash in UP.

    BJP rally.

    Too much of chaos happening in this country.
     
  11. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    I, too, had subscribed to Hindu for years when I was student. It's entire editorial team is a left-elitist, hardcore Sino-phile propaganda-spewing machine. IMHO, even pure masala prints like ToI are somewhat better in that respect.
     
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  12. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    Was inevitable & pre-meditated when BJP leaders (here, Sangeet Som) are being selectively targeted (persecuted) by SP. Good for BJP who are painting themselves both as protectors of Hindu Samaj as well as victims of the Muslim-appeaser regime.

    Anyway, court is going to acquit the BJP MLA for want of reliable evidence. But, SP & INLD are going to loose their base big-time. SP's electoral calculations (machinations) have gone completely awry in this riot. The groundswell might not be completely in Modi's favour but anti-SP sentiment are rampant cutting across divide (IAS/IPS cadre, business-class, rich agriculturists as well as the upwardly mobile middle-class).

    The Yadav's are definitely steadfast in their vocal support of biradar "Neta-ji".
     
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  13. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    The Sad part is that things are getting chaotic!
     
  14. pankaj nema

    pankaj nema Senior Member Senior Member

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    All news papers and their correspondents have their own agendas

    The Hindu is Anti BJP

    If Hindu news paper has decided to promote SP and BSP above the BJP
    nobody can change their attitude

    Suppose this same article had written that Congress is this village's first choice
    then people would have called " The Hindu " as a pro congress news paper

    So they are promoting SP and BSP instead of Congress
     
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  15. NSG_Blackcats

    NSG_Blackcats Member of The Month OCTOBER 2009 Senior Member

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    Editorial page of any paper belongs to the team of editors. They can express their views. You can disagree with that and post comment on that editorial. What I know, The Hindu do publish views that are contrary to their editorial. But in today's world there are very few journalists left who carry out stories in an unbiased manner that is where the social media may bring out a change.
     
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  16. Sakal Gharelu Ustad

    Sakal Gharelu Ustad Detests Jholawalas Moderator

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    I met a local leader in west UP and this was before the riots.

    He said there is a wave for Modi even in rural areas of UP, but in the end elections are fought on caste basis. So, whether the momentum would convert into votes is questionable. But post riots, I am sure a lot of things have changed.
     
  17. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    whats written in the article is spot on...only fanboys refuse to accept reality.

    they're as deluded as the up wallahs who keep on voting for regional parties that are worse than both national parties.
     
  18. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    Sorry to disappoint you but the writing is amply clear on the wall.....a significant proportion of deluded UP-wallas have decided to cast their lot behind BSP & BJP, even if some Dilli-wallas have chosen to play blind to the obvious. Strangely enough, even the beleaguered Congress is going to gain in UP at the cost of SP & INLD.

    As Ray Sir says, proof of pudding lies in its eating: wait for results from impending state elections & 2014 LS elections.
     
  19. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    BSP-Congress come closer

    The Congress is really serious about an election coalition with the BSP and wants that the announcement should be made before the Assembly elections in the five states. The Congress feels that in that case it may get votes from the Dalits in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. A “friendly fight” may take place for a few seats in Delhi and a coalition may happen for others. But the biggest challenge is to strike a balance for seats in Uttar Pradesh. Mayavati wants to leave only 30 seats for the Congress, which is asking for 40 seats. And if the SP doesn’t like the SP-Congress coalition and puts the UPA-2 in danger, the Parliament may be dissolved before the Assembly elections in any of these states.
     

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