United States or Russia, which way is India going in the new decade?

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by A.V., Feb 3, 2010.

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United States or Russia which way is india going in the new decade?

  1. Russia

    13 vote(s)
    21.3%
  2. United States

    2 vote(s)
    3.3%
  3. Both

    37 vote(s)
    60.7%
  4. None

    9 vote(s)
    14.8%
  1. A.V.

    A.V. New Member

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    india a non-aligned nation who has very close ties with the Soviet Union has long transformed its priorities and is now a major ally of the united states while still maintaining close ties with russia but in the new decade things are bound to change and lets analyse how close an ally is india of the united states and what does russia think about this closeness

    1> can india -us relations stand the test of time ?
    2> will russia go all -out to woo its close friend ?
    3>how much will growth of china affect this relationship ?
    4> what does this new decade hold for india ?
    5> how much does US- pakistan relationship or US-China relationship or China-russia relationship affect indian thinking ?

    lets bring out our points in respect to these above points
     
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  3. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    A Very good topic, which has to be discussed in depth.

    I am feeling that the Indo Russian ties will grow and prosper, and on the side, There will be a strong Indo US tie too. But the USofA is after India to sideline China. The Growth of China worries USA and its just because of that they are with us now. The USA is no fair weather friend for sure, Unless you happen to be Israel, which India is not. Heck, even their Allies can depend on them for tech in joint ventures, and we shouldnt expect to.

    There are lots of things hanging in Balance, and the Growth of China will determine the way Indo US relations grow. The MMRCA deal will be a signal towards whats in store for the relationship. Not only that, The Obama Administration is not trying as hard as bush to woo India, but of late they too are picking up and sending the Right Signal. I say India should use this opportunity to get the best out of this Relationship and Not let USA Manipulate us. We should stick to our time tested allies, but we should grow up with the times too.

    The Relationship we are sharing with Russia now is not that we Had with Soviet Union. The Russians too see us as a market, but they still have that Warmth for us. The US just sees us as a tool to take on China.
     
  4. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    I think keeping a balance and not leaning too much to either would be beneficial for India in the long run, both have different things to offer and one should not be sacrificed for relations with the other.
     
    AkhandBharat likes this.
  5. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    av good qn and thread thanks ! - ive consistently written on this forum as follows :- it will be india us for education and personal contacts and india russia for defence and governmental contacts : All three nations mentioned are large systems and beign such they cant change theri policies at the whim . The old suspicions still remain eg india wary that usa still uses china as the conter to moderate russian strength . But education-wiswe it is easier for us to prefer usa for being in english and the americans need our postgraduate researchers for their univ departmenrt many of which would have to scale down if not for our support in numbers. I hope other contries lkike rusia , france , germany would give our your folks scholarships then we could diversify out of the strangle hold of the english speaking lands and go russia eg for medicine germany for superb techno france for arts and business studies etc.
     
  6. StealthSniper

    StealthSniper Senior Member Senior Member

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    I think because of the deep historical relation with Russia, and the limitless supply of Russian TOT, India will keep Russia as their top military supplier for the next decade or more. Russia has put itself in a good position with India because it has a hand in every part of India's armed forces and offers things that America just won't offer. At the same time, we also have to realize that if we are looking just at India's point of view, then having good relations with Israel and America is also very important. I think America will have a bigger piece of the pie in the next decade because they are the leaders in electronics and I think if India can get access to American equipment then we can benefit from the technology and at the same time have more than one supplier just in case things happen in the future.


    All in all what I really want to happen is to have Russia, America, and Israel as partners and eventually not have to rely on anyone in the future. The key is to have India develop it's own weapons and if America and Russia can make that happen then all the power to India. If we look a couple decades out India will want to play a bigger part in our world and you can't be a regional superpower or superpower without you own industrial manufacturing base. So I think India is on the right path with the IAC, Dhruv, LCH, Teja's, Arjun, Arihant etc, and if America can help as much as Russia did (not likey though because America keeps technology to itself), then hopefully we can get to our end goal as being a country that sell weapons rather than buy them.
     
  7. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    i have said this before and will repeat it yet again, gone are the days of one way street on india’s relations with the us and with russia, there are gains to be had from both, with india pursuing strong relations with both and forging much more stronger relations in times to come. yes there will come testing times when both the us and russia will use pressure tactics on india to follow their stand on certain issues but india after weighing in the pros and cons will slightly tilt on one side and then the other, extract maximum leverage in bargain and then take a neutral stand and move on.

    it might seem in certain corners that india is siding too much with the us, but then there were relations to be built upon when none existed in the past and this is seen as some sort of a bonhomie which in fact is nothing but convergence of interests for a future that brings about mutually beneficial results for the two concerned nations. both the nations face common threats and it is only sensible to tackle the same together.

    indo-russian relations after having had quite a roller-coaster ride which lasted for quite a long time period are back to near normal with the focus now to give a significant push to bilateral trade which was hardly the discussion point in the past. the military relationship has moved past from one of buyer supplier to one of joint investments with joint development with the two countries now engaged in well over 200 projects which are of buy/sell and JV nature and this relationship with an emerging stronger india will only get deeper and better.

    people have termed obama a disaster for indo-us relations but off late there has been quite a transformation. for the fist time it is looking like the relations are back on track prompting former ambassador m k bhadrakumar to do a write up on relations reaching the near same heights where the bush administration had left them. may be not at the same level but certainly a lot of warming up has taken place with india getting a key say on a lot of regional issues. with the us being the sole super power there is too much to be had to let go this relationship even if the russians feel a little offended and probably let down.

    even otherwise it seems obama is getting out of his shell with a recovering economy and getting more assertive, one just needs to reflect on the way he is now giving a twist to the initially thought comfortable us-sino relations by cozying up to taiwan and dalai lama which has generated a lot of irritants with the chinese fuming away in disgust and anger.

    needs to be seen, but it seems this relationship will reach a point soon enough where a change in the administration in the us will have no bearing on the direction the indo-us relations will be headed to, as it is even today one even finds a lot of support amongst both the republican and the democrat senators to have better relations with india. benefits are to be had on both ends more for india today but as india grows in stature, india’s role will only increase significantly in this relationship.

    there is no doubt in my mind that russia will keep wooing india but will this be the single most important relationship for russia is a little difficult to ascertain for they have the prc in their immediate vicinity, but yes this will certainly be one of the most important.

    a communist china is a concern without a doubt for india and if china gets too aggressive then i tend to believe that will make the russians as well a little edgy, and this will be one point that will make india and russia get along on a lot of fronts without any friction and work together to achieve common goals.

    uninterrupted economic progress with real growth figures in double digits is all i want india to do and have, and this needs to happen for at least two decades starting today and then from 2025-30 timeline onwards should india start coming to the fore on key international issues, till then keep slogging hard, keep a relatively low profile but be in a position to defend your interests and mould our relations with international players in such a way that they come to the fore defending our interests but all this for now needs to be pursued in a subtle manner. be the good boy but a manipulative one at that, it pays back handsomely!

    i think we have still not reached the stage of either with us or against us. india will look at how best to benefit from various situations that arise, not completely align with any of the major powers, try and get the best deal for it self, and move on. i believe india’s relations with the leading powers will remain independent of what the relations of these powers are with each other till the time they do not directly hurt our interests, and even when some irritants emerge, i think they will be chalked out through talks.

    the most important thing for india is, it needs a peaceful growth and a quite rise without causing concerns or doubts about our intentions in the minds of other nationals with our interests more or less taken care off. quite a task at hand for indian diplomacy!



    PS: Avi, please add a poll to the thread, questioning what relationship do members feel should be the top most priority in the forth coming decade/s?

    indi-russia, indo-us, both, none.
     
  8. tharikiran

    tharikiran Regular Member

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    1> can india -us relations stand the test of time ?
    2> will russia go all -out to woo its close friend ?
    3>how much will growth of china affect this relationship ?
    4> what does this new decade hold for india ?
    5> how much does US- pakistan relationship or US-China relationship or China-russia relationship affect indian thinking ?


    My gut feeling is that Russia is on the rebound .
    I see a lot of fundemental changes in the society at the micro level.

    The faster it makes it's way back the more assertive it will become.
    Now, the question is - will that make the US nervous ? We have to wait and see.


    26/11 was the tipping point for the US. It's world was turned upside down.

    Once this war with Al-Qaeda/Taliban is over ..lets say after 15 years.
    May not even take 15 years, with the way they are using drones 24/7 and eliminating
    key leaders one after another.The US is smart. Learns quickly too.That'swhy they are number one.
    When it all comes down to getting dirty and getting the job done, they know how to do it.

    So after 15 years,What's next ?

    Though I am a believer that this war is not gonig to end.
    Hypothetically, what will the be areas of convergence for India and US ?

    Will terrorism be one ?

    I strongly believe kashmir will come to normalcy.

    Other areas will be space, technology and people to people contact.

    The answer to the question,"Can india -US relations stand the test of time ?"
    is- It hasn't in the past.15-20 years down the line if we are directly competing
    with the US in term of technology, innovations,business. will that make the US edgy.
    I doubt it.But then we also have to think about the kind of role India will be playing in world politics
    and the kind of military muscle India packs in by that time.

    A strong Indian military will make its neighbours and American alies edgy.
    I am thinking about Australia in particular.

    Indian and Russian relation can recover after the beating it has taken with
    the Gorshkov deal.We see more and more projects being done together. That's a good sign.

    I see China as a threat to Russia.
    A powerful China will definitely make Russia edgy.
    They already have border and Island disputes.

    We have already seen China being more and more assertive.
    This will defintely annoy Russia.

    India as others have said should grow quitely in the coming decades.
    The elephant should not make noices but keep moving.

    I see India changing for the better, making all round progress.
    Thanks to democracy, I believe there will be a change in the political landscape too.
    In the sense, less corrupt leaders and more young people joining in.


    Does US -Pakistan relation has any future ?
    Except for strategic/geo political use I can't imagine any other use.
    I dont see areas of convergence.

    US- China Relation.
    Hmm.. this will be interesting.
    If India wakes up and grows to its potentianl. Then what ?

    US will then be more assertive and China will realise it can't walk the talk.

    Can China cosy up with Russia ? I dont think so.

    There will be 4 major players.
    US, Russia, China and India.

    It's upto India to take the 3rd spot.

    I feel India will play the mediator between US and Russia.
     
  9. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Which way will India be in the new decade? It will be on "Indias" way. The policy started by the present government to do business with all keeping its own interest in mind will continue.

    But what needs to be understood is that what the erstwhile USSR offered to India was far more than what the Russians offer today. Indias relations with Russia are more or less tied to defense sales by Russia to India. These days there are a lot of problems, but all solvable. But apart from that there is nothing much to write home about. Nuclear cooperation is the only other thing.

    But with the US, India is getting into a whole gammut of cooperation. Military, Nuclear, Space and other trade and investments.

    India is not going to align with anyone and do business with all in its own interest.
     
  10. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    While agreeing to most of your points just to add sidenotes as follows,
    1) China actually has settled with Russia ALL territorial disputes. Surprise? It takes guts and will to make such 'political resolutions', which were dometically UNPOPULAR [/B ]in face of nationalism outcries of 'too much concessions' within both countries. Of course Russia isn't cosy, unsatisfied with status quo as being an 'arms exporter' or merely a 'supplier' of natural resources.
    2) Sino-US-India Ecology: For now US is more comfortable with India than China. But what if India somedays also gets 'assertive' , naturally with its growing ambition? What if China fades out of centre stage of world powers resulting losing China as a leverage for both to play with? Will the US still hold India in high regards vs China? Similar to the old scenario former USSR wooing INdia in rivalry against the US.

    Thumb up!
     
  11. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    There are two possible ways for a nation two have good realtions with other nations

    1) Person to person contacts- This where the americans win hands down, the united states along with canada has long been the preferred destination for indian migrants and as the first generation and in some cases second genration migrants move on to retirement and calmer lives it is their progeny that have the potential to turn America into India's greatest ally; as of today The indian american community by virtue of their hard work and entrepreneual skill holds political power(read money) rivalled only by the jewish bloc in Washington .as these people become further entrenched into the world of american politics Some if not all will make decisions favoring their land of origin(this is inevitable in all immigrant groups around the world). Apart from these financial brokers who hold the reins of many a senator and congressman there are those who have taken up politics as a profession; it is not inconceivable to think that in the not so distant future the son of an indian immigrant may have an important role in the capitol. Economically also tell me how many russian brands other than Mig and kalashnikov can an indian name? GM 'McDonalds, pepsi, coca-cola all these have the power to bend the indian psyche to think more like the americans. heck! they are changing the russian psyche so that Russian teenagers are growing up more americanized. Hollywood & MTV influences india in a way that a hundred years of Pravda cannot.As the economic power of indians grows and satellite telivision and americna invades Indian homes India will move closer to America by virtue of this cultural shift even as the indians in america push america closer to india, the cultural and social paths of these nations will converge it is only a matter of time.China too is getting americanized albeit far more slowly as the controls on cultural change mechanisms (read media, internet) are far more tighter there than here, Obama and his successors will buy from china but as the recent taiwan arms sale shows they may not bow down to it.

    Governmental contacts-The ties of South block and North block however are tied more to the Moskva than the Potomac and this will increase with time , Russia being what it is offers far more opportunities for a crooked politico than America does (which is not to say that the U.S is clean)and india has far too many crooked politicos to count. Russia has been a declining power for the past two decades now and though the powers that be of the Duma has done to arrest that as of now there is little to cheer about. militarily the Indian military and OFB are too far entwined whithin the Russian military industrial complex to disengage in the wink of an eye,Russia however has an edge over the united states in that it has far fewer scruples when it comes to supplying weapons and forbidden technologies to it's allies and this is it's trump card ;there are very few nations that can give us what the russians can at the same price and with the same End user freedom.The russians are on the way to disenagage from china(they have suffered far too long from chinese copies of weapon systems hurting their sales) though this is not clearly evident at the moment Siberia and Russia 's vast far east will soon become a bone of contention between russia and china, India is the only conceivable rival to china in asia only we have the manpower to take on the mailed fist of the PLA and survive; the russians know this and we know they know this the only question that remains to be answered is in 1971 the russians helped us to stare down a superpower will we return the favor?
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2010
  12. VayuSena1

    VayuSena1 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    I must say that this is indeed a good debate forum that I have experienced and to be frank, I recommended a couple of my fellow colleague officers who are likely to be joining anytime soon. Thank you for the interesting thread, A.V. Regarding the questions, I shall answer one by one:

    A) This is a test yet to be even started as contrary to what the rather over-glamourizing media of India writes in its articles. While the US-India ties really started rising during the Bush Administration, there has been a slight chill that came over ever since Obama administration has taken over and there is no denying that. If Bush were continuing, it would have been a whole different equation of relationship by now. However Mr. Obama's China focus has always made the South Block uncomfortable with getting as close as it has been to Moscow since yesteryears.

    Russia experienced a few unpleasant hiccups during the Gorshkov negotiation already, observing the displeasure of Indian Navy over constant delays and inefficiency, leading to a earlier-than-expected delivery of the Navy's MiG-29Ks. However, this would have a large bearing to our 126 jet competition as well since they know too well that we don't keep all eggs in one basket.

    However, the latest news of PAK FA making its first flight with its photos and press release out, I have a feeling that Russia would not go empty-handed out of this competition. Russians are making the deal sweeter by the day by promoting their MiG and Yak-130 intermediate jet trainers, which might be taken in as a consolation prize for the "MMRCA" contest.

    If it is US-India ties, the ties are likely to expand further given the fact that Americans don't delay unlike Indian officials and would like to plug the growth as soon as possible. Even if it is Russo-Indian ties, they are only going to rise since Russia has oflate seen a huge dip in its sales to China and also is embroiled in an IPR issue over Chinese copying Russian weapons without any ethical regard.

    Hence, China's rise will push both traditional friend Moscow and new friend Washington closer to India.

    IMO the coming decade is basically a repetition of what happened in the 70s regarding military aviation, when the IAF embarked on a massive modernization campaign and was at its peak with spanking new Soviet technology. If GOI honors their commitment and deadlines along with defense companies of India, by 2020 our dear media would find very few things left to criticize about Indian tri-services--though our Army counterparts need to seriously do something about their land-based systems and fast.


    These both ties are inversely proportional to the ties Washington has with us Indians. I believe that though the South Block would deny it openly, covertly nothing would please the GOI more than US altering its maps with Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin as integral part of India AND the same with Pakistani Occupied Kashmir, while asking fellow NATO members to do the same. However, with the current attitude Obama Administration has with Delhi, I doubt that the US-India ties could reach as high as Russia-India ties unless another Bush can come and continue what GWB started in 2007.
     
  13. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    returnig to answer one of av's qns ; i feel the solitary matter of china's growth will in itself be a major factor of grave concern to both usa and russia ( as it asways was fro india ) . Chinas growth is reaching global proportions and can no longer be viewed as beign easily contained by the usa not russia. this will result in a clear preference for stronger ties with india by both russi and the usa however old memories die hard and there still is a layer of older military professionals in the US system who still view india with suspicion and have the old view of a poverty stricken nation which can hardly hold its head above water let alone be a credible ally. All the old thinking will go later rather than sooner and it will go when the older folks spoken of gradually fade away . Look for a totally new viw of india by the usa in a bout ten years time when this layer is finally gone . COncurrently there had better be a total overhaul in thinking in russia as their reversion to communist ideologies and modes of thought is not gonna be of much elp in th elonger run. Quite frankly i feel that russia as a major power has had it unless they make real new strong ties with the usa and that can only take place if they make some serious moves to go democratic . Failing that i think russia has had it. And demographicall y , population -wise they are in HEAP BIG TROUBLE . i wrote about this earlier oin and expectedly the russians on the forum politely pointed out that hey are nor about to disappear ....still re- teh far east i still feel they are in HUGH TROUBLE !! so i think both india and russia will drw closer to the usa , being compelled to do so by the unrelenting growth of china
     
  14. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Got to give it to you there, west needs a whipping boy and has had quite a few favorites starting with the ussr, to now the prc with many a in between and if India were to shoot off all of a sudden or for that matter patch up with the prc and in some ways directly challenge the west, though this looks too far fetched for now, their attitude wont be any different towards us than that it has towards the prc and this fear mongering, if I may use the term, has to do with insecurities, which I think comes naturally when there emerges something on the horizon which has the potential to challenge and replace you.

    On the same note India has to thank the prc because had it not been for their tremendous growth and the first ones to take lead amongst India and the prc (both of which hold to potential to be dominant world powers in their own right) then there would have been a lot of heat on India which is there on the prc presently, and the reasons are not far to look for, especially since the west remains rather suspicious of us for our past during the cold war era and our fiercely independent stand on key international issues of which the west remains quite allergic to, one of the few reasons why they were open to have pakistan as an ally than us.

    I think what India has been quite smart at has been that they have more or less recognize the fact that for now very clearly there is just one super power which leads the world and the best way to deal with them and move ahead is to make them play the senior partner role and in the process push our interests to the max to which the us looks more than happy to adjust to and give India a bigger say at the world stage (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...se-than-Chinas-ascent/articleshow/5530577.cms), so effectively what is happening is that it is the us that is pushing us ahead and not india pushing itself ahead and make way for itself which if pursued has the potential of creating irritants for the west.

    And in all this it is not as if India is just aligning it self with just the us and Russia to address its concerns but is doing the same with the prc as well as and when it suits us, take the case of recent climate change talks or the trade talks or joint bids for various oil and gas exploration across the globe to address our energy needs.

    So by aligning and shifting our alliance depending on the situations confronted with we are certainly having the best of all worlds. I guess that’s what is called keeping your interests intact.
     
  15. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    The difference between the USSR/PRC and India is the system. The former being a closed society and the latter being open. So culturally US and India are more close and even an assertive India can only but be a friend and ally of the west rather than a whipping boy as the other two were and still are.
     
  16. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Basically echoing Thakesh's most points. Just to add-

    the USSR is a bygone. Yet in contrast PRC can't be seen as a stereotyped closed society (otherwise it could have collapsed in resemblance). Instead of being static it's also evolving dynamically and getting open. Economically of course it has transitted to market economy from central command economy. In addition PRC is also changing 'for better' in other ways (more and more freedom that couldn't be foreseen decades ago). Of course u can't expect such changes take place overnight. When people get affluent they certainly ask for more and push for more changes for their own good. Your hypothesis based on 'China remains as it is now' may have to be finetuned in future.

    Besides the weight of 'system' similarity or affinity (between Ind and US in your case) is probably overstated. For instance Russia has been mirroring the West (US/EU) in 'sytem' (democracy? economy?) once dreaming of merging into them. But the West still views it as a 'menance' despite its being no match of USSR. Russia is still not WEAK enough (given its size, and potential and ambition) to be accepted as an 'equal' partner even if it's willing to play second fiddle. That also provides a vivid lesson for powers of such a scale like China or India since intl relationship depends more on interest than on ideology.
     
  17. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    my post afe above about my view ( and it is a personal view) was not execpt to try what i could as an individual ( huh ! ) to alert or perhaps mpre approriately to hilight i advance ( way in advance ) on this illustrious forum the warning that the demograpic war in the russian federation is in big time danger . My intention is to prevent it from happening !! quite to opposite to some of the posts from certani deirection on this forum er.... ahem !.
     
  18. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    The difference between the USSR/PRC and india is the competition for power. USSR and china had and has threatened the USA dominant on world raw material market. The cheapest oil price and other material cost are the basis of american dream. India demand of these material is just not big enough yet. But with the economic development, india already started its pursuit of oil in the world. So, very soon, india will be on the american radar as well.
     
  19. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Indo-us relations go well beyond and have much deeper roots to it to be irked by sourcing of raw materials where anyways one sees some sort of a cooperation emerging where the us is today pushing a project like TAPI, and the us does recognize the fact of huge energy needs of India and is ready to accommodate our needs and concerns in sourcing these needs.

    One can see this relationship only getting deeper and stronger with the passage of time for there emerges a huge challenge in the form of rapidly growing communist china for the ideology they hold, the rather ambitious outlook wrt to having military bases all around, to eyeing others territory which adds up to a lot of friction and threat and all this does not go down well with both the us and for us here in India which when viewed from the us’s pov is bound to change the world order quite dramatically with them having to loose a lot of sheen which would be a huge cause of concern for them.

    Then the us could possibly be a declining power soon enough and if it so happens they will have to choose between various countries to align with so as to keep their interests intact and while doing that they will more readily push such partners to take on the responsibility of evolving world situations and take a lead.

    If and when all this happens there is no one better suited to marginalize this emerging challenge than India because of its terrific geographic location, the potential to be another huge economic power, the military might the country holds, compatibility with regards to a democratic setup in both the countries, political will on both the sides to move ahead together, the huge population base which does not hold anti-us sentiments a phenomenon that has got just too uncommon off late and of this population a decent enough chunk consists of muslims, etc, and with so much of goodies to be had from each other and commonality on goals to be achieved this relationship only gets natural and moves way beyond than an itch here or an itch there.

    With so much to be had India as per its interests will keep shifting its alliances depending on the situation confronted with and make the most out of our desperate partners who would be willing to walk that extra mile with us.
     
  20. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    If USA realy cares about democracy, why did they take the side of Pak during india-pak war?

    If USA realy cares about other countries human rights, why they protedted Sadam in last 80s when he gased his own people?
     
  21. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Land of the GODS - "Dev Bhomi".
    ^^

    Did I any where talk about the human rights? And for your first question read my previous posts to get the answer.
     

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