U.S. Intelligence: China's Stealth Fighter Deployment in 2018!

Discussion in 'China' started by Martian, May 21, 2010.

  1. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2009
    Messages:
    1,344
    Likes Received:
    262
    Location:
    Boston
    New Chinese fighter jet expected by 2018: U.S. intelligence | Reuters

    "New Chinese fighter jet expected by 2018: U.S. intelligence

    Jim Wolf
    WASHINGTON
    Thu May 20, 2010 10:46pm EDT

    (Reuters) - China is building an advanced combat jet that may rival within eight years Lockheed Martin Corp's F-22 Raptor, the premier U.S. fighter, a U.S. intelligence official said.

    World | China

    The date cited for the expected deployment is years ahead of previous Pentagon public forecasts and may be a sign that China's rapid military buildup is topping many experts' expectations.

    "We're anticipating China to have a fifth-generation fighter ... operational right around 2018," Wayne Ulman of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center testified on Thursday to a congressionally mandated group that studies national security implications of U.S.-China economic ties.

    "Fifth-generation" fighters feature cutting-edge capabilities, including shapes, materials and propulsion systems designed to make them look as small as a swallow on enemy radar screens.

    Defense Secretary Robert Gates had said last year that China "is projected to have no fifth-generation aircraft by 2020" and only a "handful" by 2025.

    He made the comments on July 16 to the Economic Club of Chicago while pushing Congress to cap F-22 production at 187 planes in an effort to save billions of dollars in the next decade.

    Ulman is China "issues manager" at the center that is the U.S. military's prime intelligence producer on foreign air and space forces, weapons and systems. He said China's military was eyeing options for possible use of force against Taiwan, which Beijing deems a rogue province.

    The People's Liberation Army, as part of its Taiwan planning, also is preparing to counter "expected U.S. intervention in support of Taiwan," he told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

    He said the PLA's strategy included weakening U.S. air power by striking air bases, aircraft carrier strike groups and support elements if the U.S. stepped in.

    Attacks against U.S. "basing infrastructure" in the western Pacific would be carried out by China's air force along with an artillery corps' conventional cruise missile and ballistic missile forces, he said outlining what he described as a likely scenario.

    He described China as a "hard target" for intelligence-gathering and said there were a lot of unknowns about its next fighter, a follow-on to nearly 500 4th generation fighters "that can be considered at a technical parity" with older U.S. fighters.

    "It's yet to be seen exactly how (the next generation) will compare one on one with say an F-22," Ulman told the commission. "But it'll certainly be in that ballpark."

    Lockheed Martin, the Pentagon's No. 1 supplier by sales, is in the early stages of producing another fifth-generation fighter, the F-35. Developed with eight partner countries in three models with an eye to achieving economies of scale and export sales, it will not fly as fast nor as high as the F-22.

    Gates has argued that the United States enjoys a lopsided advantage in fighters, warships and other big-ticket military hardware. Some U.S. congressional decisions on arms programs amount to overkill, out of touch with "real-world" threats and today's economic strains, he said in two speeches on the issue this month.

    "For example, should we really be up in arms over a temporary projected shortfall of about 100 Navy and Marine strike fighters relative to the number of carrier wings, when America's military possesses more than 3,200 tactical combat aircraft of all kinds?" Gates said on May 8.

    "Is it a dire threat that by 2020 the United States will have only 20 times more advanced stealth fighters than China?" he added at the Eisenhower presidential library in Abilene, Kansas.

    Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, discounted the gap between the timelines cited by Gates and Ulman. He declined to comment on whether China had made enough progress since last July to change intelligence on the next fighter's debut.

    Richard Fisher, an expert on the Chinese military at the private International Assessment and Strategy Center, said Gates' decision to end F-22 production is proving to be "potentially very wrong."

    "We will need more F-22s if we are going to adequately defend our interests," he said in an interview on Thursday at the hearing.

    Bruce Lemkin, a U.S. Air Force deputy undersecretary for ties to foreign air forces, told the commission he had visited Taiwan twice in his official capacity and that the capabilities of Taiwan's aging F-16s, also built by Lockheed, were not "keeping up."

    Whether to meet Taiwan's request for advanced F-16 fighters or upgrade the old ones was still under review by the Obama administration, he said before Ulman spoke."
     
  2.  
  3. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    4,957
    Likes Received:
    613
    hehe. yankees now don't buy what Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong, the spokeman of China's "Fool-you administration"?

    Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong once insisted that PLA's next G bird be a 4.5G bird similar with rafale and EF2000. Mr. Armand happily buys it.
     
  4. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009
    Messages:
    9,252
    Likes Received:
    3,347
    Location:
    Brussels
    Okay. So steps to gather funds & approval for the USAF new fighter has begun.
    I hope they succeed in presenting measurable threat so that House will pass the funding.

    Chinese struggle will continues nevertheless.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2010
    SHASH2K2, DaRk WaVe and Oracle like this.
  5. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    Only unknowns if you don't bother to review the evidence. Looks like Mr. Ulman didn't do his homework.

    1. China has no production turbofans
    2. Pakistan won't accept Chinese avionics
    3. Even the J-10 landing gear is called "inferior" by firsthand observers.
    4. 2009 China ordered another batch of 100 AL-31F engines (enough to last until 2018 based on Chengdu production)
    5. PLA said the fighter is a "modified J-10"
    6. We have seen J-10B with modified inlets
    7. Reports of J-10B say is an attempt to bring J-10 into the "fourth generation"

    Final analysis... this 2018 fighter is J-10B. The evidence is clear once you except the truth of Chinese research limitations.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2010
    LETHALFORCE, gogbot and plugwater like this.
  6. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2009
    Messages:
    1,344
    Likes Received:
    262
    Location:
    Boston
    Holy smokes! Did you just claim that Mr. Wayne Ulman lied in his congressional testimony and committed a felony? Did you also just claim that you have intelligence and knowledge superior to Mr. Ulman, the intelligence expert on China's military affairs? Have you lost your mind? By the way, who's Mr. Olsen?

     
    Last edited: May 21, 2010
  7. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    Yes, I did. USAF has been lying to Congress ever since they started fighting the F-22 cancellation. Clear case of their propaganda right here... they even have the gual to mention plasma stealth. lol

     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  8. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2009
    Messages:
    1,344
    Likes Received:
    262
    Location:
    Boston
    Firstly, it is incredible that you believe that an intelligence expert intentionally lied to Congress and committed a serious crime. That is an extreme charge and belief.

    Secondly, eight years is a long time. China's military advancements are coming fast and furious. In 2007, we saw a successful ASAT test. Earlier this year, in 2010, we saw a successful mid-course GBI test (i.e. ground-based interceptor).

    However, if you wish to claim that intelligence experts are lying to Congress and that China has no chance of fielding its stealth fighter by 2018 then that's your prerogative. I think that your view is nuts and extreme, but conspiracy theorists and die-hard skeptics are not the most open-minded people.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  9. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    US intelligence agencies lie to Congress all the time. I don't see anyone charged in CIA for falsification of the BS for the War in Iraq.

    I didn't see anything except Chinese fanboys posting pictures of Russian atmospheric nuclear detonations. Shooting down a satellite is very old technology, their mid-course test was nothing more.

    I have plenty of evidence to support my position... Mr. Ulman admits he doesn't have jack.
     
    tharikiran likes this.
  10. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2010
    Messages:
    5,711
    Likes Received:
    723
    Location:
    Bihar, BanGalore , India
    I think its another American ploy to force congress to approve more number of F22 Raptor or to work on its improvements. It seems that features of PAK FA is worrying them and they need more air superiority fighters . same thing happened after airforce excercise in India . they created lots of fear and hype about sukhoi 30 MKI and tried to get more form congress.
     
  11. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    If you want anymore evidence of US crap intelligence... look no further.

    National intelligence director resigning

    (AP) – 5 hours ago

    WASHINGTON — National Intelligence Director Dennis Blair is resigning under pressure from the White House, ending a tumultuous 16-month tenure marked by intelligence failures and spy agency turf wars.
     
  12. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2009
    Messages:
    9,252
    Likes Received:
    3,347
    Location:
    Brussels
    On one side US talk of China being its very good friend. On other side the congress chatter directly targeting China is made public.
    What US feeling? the Cold War Era Deja Vu with China now?

    F22 Raptor is so far the supreme fighter ever known. It'll still be a lethal threat to any 5th Gen fighter be it PAK FA or JXX. US has nothing to worry.

    Relaxing on US soil, Why worried over possible Chinese attack on Taiwan ? If they want to protect their so interest, why not arm Taiwan with F35s?
    IMO Taiwan deserves higher FMF than Pakistan.

    Chinese invasion on Taiwan is very & absolutely possible about which US cant do anything, unless they engage with PRC in actual war.
    US has so much domestic work to do but instead of doing it, US politicians are more interested in keeping their Def company sales up. Without any reason US is messing in Taiwan issue IMO. If Taiwan is in real distress, it can run to UN. US should stop playing with its chicken shyt.

    I laugh when US claim to support the 'Peaceful rise of PRC'. US itself doing enough for hostile suppression of PRC. Nobody should blame PRC if Chinese missile lands on US soil in next decades.

    China has not even showed prototype or LO TD fighter, then how can this 2018 fighter possibly rival F22?? Even if deployed in 2018, this Chinese fighter ain't flying to attack US. Its fighter plane not an invisible bomber. I wonder why they don't take out name of PAK FA or other programs.

    F22 is Total Air Superiority Fighter. These super advanced birds are supposed to be in less number. What they want? An F22 equivalent for every individual US citizen?

    And damn that US intelligence is crap. They attack countries, fight for more than decade but don't know Osama's location. Now they know the F22 rival details & date of deployment with followed plans to weaken US air power by striking US air bases? US is best in manufacturing theories.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2010
  13. Phenom

    Phenom Regular Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2010
    Messages:
    878
    Likes Received:
    401
    Remember this is just an assessment, he can always say his assessment went wrong, and it can't be considered a lie but just as a mistake. After all he has a rider early in the sentence saying China is a hard target for intelligence gathering
     
    Martian likes this.
  14. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2009
    Messages:
    1,344
    Likes Received:
    262
    Location:
    Boston
    That is interesting. You are correct that he did indeed protect himself with the "hard target" disclaimer/rider.
     
  15. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    4,957
    Likes Received:
    613
    To take yankees' reports to their congress too serious is as foolish as to take what Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong and Mr. Gordon Chang say.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2010
  16. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    Who is Zhang Zhaozhong and Gordon Chang?
     
  17. gogbot

    gogbot Regular Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2009
    Messages:
    937
    Likes Received:
    116
    Excellent points i would have made them myself , Maybe not about the J-10 but the point that 5th gen technologies don't appear out of this air is very true.

    Many technologies standard in 5th generation have yet to find their way into the PLAAF.

    AESA/PESA radar for their fighter planes.
    an engine with super cruise and trust vectoring.
    china has yet to operate let alone develop most of these things.
    And what good is a 5th gen fighter if it does not have NG missiles to go with it.

    Unless there can be a noticeable increase or use of these technologies , China's 5th gen program is still very much in development.
     
  18. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2009
    Messages:
    4,957
    Likes Received:
    613
    your information is soo outdated.

    a commendation meeting for the Chinese scientists in charge of R&D of AESA was already hold in 2008,because they succeeded in finishing AESA. in fact, J10B already has AESA on. when CHinese 5G bird enter into service, China's next G AESA should roll out already.

    CD reports that 4-5 China's level-9.0 engines for its 5G bird have been already assembled for gound-tests. it is esimated that China's level-9.0 engine should be mature in 5 years or so.

    all above informantion are reported by CD. The reports there always several months earlier than Janes and Kanwa.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2010
  19. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2009
    Messages:
    20,551
    Likes Received:
    6,556
    Badguy what happened to your claim China will have a 5th generation prototype out before the Russians??
     
  20. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2009
    Messages:
    10,397
    Likes Received:
    2,314
    I really do wonder about Chinese radar advancement. HQ-9 is supposed to have a PESA engagement radar, but the engagement radar for the HQQ-9 is not PESA and the radar they tought for HQ-9 looks exactly like the Russian. I'm thinking they are still buying engagement radars from Russia. So I do agree, they have not reached a modern PESA much less any hope of an AESA.

    As far as the engines, Chinese are stuck at a standstill. They don't appear to have the technology for crystal blades according to reports. Another flaw in their engine design I have pointed out before, they do not have Iris nozzles which is going to hurt the performance of the WS-10A and any other engine they pull out. They aren't anywhere close to a 5th generation engine, they haven't even closed to 4th. Even PAK FA will not have 5th generation engines until its MLU, but the 4++ 117S.

    The best missile made in China is the PL-12. Speculation has been that they are full of Russian seekers and data links to get the listed specs. Quite frankly I don't think China has a missile on the level of RVV-SD and PL-12 is nothing but what it looks like. A copied version of AIM-7. If they could make a Chinese-SLAMMER, more countries would buy it than just Pakistan. And if it had Russian parts, we would have heard about their components needing approval to be sold to Pakistan. On top of that, Pakistan wouldn't be begging us to be selling the 60km MICA if China could sell them a 100km PL-12.

    I would say China's 5th gen programme can't even begin until they get these fundamentals down. You can't skip from 3rd to 5th generation in 8 years, especially if they have nothing to copy. I don't see anyone handing them a 5th generation fighter in the next 8 years.
     
  21. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2009
    Messages:
    1,344
    Likes Received:
    262
    Location:
    Boston
    I find anti-China posts like yours to be annoying. Five years ago, China built an Aegis-class destroyer with AESA radar. This is something that Russia has not been able to do. Also, China has built a Trident-class Julang-2 SLBM, while Russia has spent 15 years on the Bulava with no end in sight. Please spare me the Russia is so much more advanced than China propaganda.

    Since you insist that Russia is so far ahead, let's take a look at the Russian military.

    There are major problems in at least five critical areas concerning Russian military-industrial capability and the manufacture of important weapons.

    1) Cruise missiles - Six consecutive Klub missile-test failures.

    2) Ballistic missiles - 15-year Bulava SLBM program plagued by failures with no clue on how to fix them.

    3) Combat aircrafts - "In February 2009, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that 200 of the 291 MiG-29s currently in service across all Russian air arms were unsafe and would have to be permanently grounded.[21] This action would remove from service about a third of Russia's total fighter force, some 650 aircraft."

    4) Shipbuilding - "The purchase of Mistral-class ships would be ''the most salient example of the deficiencies in the Russian defense industry,'' said Dmitri Trenin, a military analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, a policy research organization."

    5) Submarines - The quality of the engines for Russian Kilo submarines is suspect.

    http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20091123/156944882.html

    "Russian submarine towed to port after engine malfunction

    01:4223/11/2009

    MOSCOW, November 23 (RIA Novosti) - A Russian diesel-electric submarine from the Black Sea Fleet is being towed to the port of Novorossiisk after suffering an engine malfunction during sea drills, a Black Sea Fleet official said.

    The Alrosa, a Kilo class diesel submarine, was on a training exercise in the Black Sea on Saturday when it reportedly experienced some problems with its jet propulsion system.

    "The submarine is being towed in a surfaced position to the port of Novorossiisk. Its arrival is expected on Monday. Experts will establish the cause of the malfunction there," the source said.

    A Russian Navy spokesman earlier said the situation on the submarine was under control and there was no danger to the crew.

    He also said the submarine would continue the drills after the problem is fixed.

    Alrosa, commissioned in 1990, is the only submarine in active service with the Black Sea Fleet. It is based at a Russian naval base in Sevastopol on Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula."

    [Note to Armand2REP: If you insist in coming into my threads to spew your anti-China propaganda, you will give me no choice but to create a new thread and compare China's technology to Russian technology. I have plenty of newslinks to back up my claim. If you do not desist then I will have to create a new thread and put your claim to the test.]
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2010

Share This Page